***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

10,179,568 Views | 54672 Replies | Last: 5 hrs ago by GAC06
TRM
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Rossticus said:

Nagler said:

Rossticus said:




I don't disagree with this.


Simply posting as an update since it was widely reported, and stated by the admin, that we had indeed approved production. I believe the justification given is cheap bs, however. There's no more chance that Ukraine will "turn on us" militarily than Poland, France, England, etc.

I believe we've gone back to feeling like the easiest way to end the war is if Ukraine surrenders, in the face of Russia insisting on full victory. The easiest way to do that is to allow Russia's campaign against civilian targets to achieve full impact.

A tandem reason may well be the US defense industry's fear of lost profits once supply increases and it's demonstrated that others are able to manufacture them faster and cheaper.

We're selling to Turkey and they're more of an enemy than Ukraine.
5Amp
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Turkey is a NATO member, Ukraine is in a territorial fight with Russia meaning if the lose, Russia ends up with it.
txags92
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5Amp said:

Turkey is a NATO member, Ukraine is in a territorial fight with Russia meaning if the lose, Russia ends up with it.

A NATO member who bought air defense systems from Russia.
AlaskanAg99
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Rossticus said:

AlaskanAg99 said:

Nagler said:

Rossticus said:




I don't disagree with this.


Selling a unit is a mssive difference vs selling the blueprints. I can draw this in crayon if you want.
More concerned about the tech being stolen and sold.


If that's a concern then you don't give them to Ukraine at all. Are they currently stealing/selling them?
aTm '99
Rossticus
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AlaskanAg99 said:

Rossticus said:

AlaskanAg99 said:

Nagler said:

Rossticus said:




I don't disagree with this.


Selling a unit is a mssive difference vs selling the blueprints. I can draw this in crayon if you want.
More concerned about the tech being stolen and sold.


If that's a concern then you don't give them to Ukraine at all. Are they currently stealing/selling them?



You mean you haven't eaten the entire box yet? Please use the brightly colored ones if there are any of them left.
nortex97
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TRM said:

Rossticus said:

Nagler said:

Rossticus said:




I don't disagree with this.

Simply posting as an update since it was widely reported, and stated by the admin, that we had indeed approved production. I believe the justification given is cheap bs, however. There's no more chance that Ukraine will "turn on us" militarily than Poland, France, England, etc.

We're selling to Turkey and they're more of an enemy than Ukraine.

The issue is Zelensky then turned around and said he wanted to put key weapons production in the UK.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2026/07/31/president-trump-pauses-consideration-of-giving-ukraine-patriot-or-tomahawk-missile-systems/
Quote:

Zelenskyy likely did himself no favors when he announced his intention to build missile and drone factories in the U.K. No doubt several Trump administration officials noted that statement and contrast it against Zelenskyy's requests.

Someone else posted the Camp David video response which is a little funny/rambling but I think he (and CTH) is right on the substance here. More at the link.
PJYoung
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The first batch of 16 satellites, launched at the end of March, has actually completed deployment: 12 devices have already reached an operating altitude of 550 km, three more are rising, and one satellite has burned out.

Currently, they provide at least two "communication windows" per day, lasting 11.5 hours. During this time, the enemy can use satellite terminals to control naval drones, as well as strike and reconnaissance UAVs.

At the end of July, Russia launched another 16 satellites, which will reach an operating altitude in October-November.

If the current pace is maintained, the Russian Federation can deploy 24-hour coverage over Ukraine by mid-2027.
shiftyandquick
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nortex97 said:

TRM said:

Rossticus said:

Nagler said:

Rossticus said:




I don't disagree with this.

Simply posting as an update since it was widely reported, and stated by the admin, that we had indeed approved production. I believe the justification given is cheap bs, however. There's no more chance that Ukraine will "turn on us" militarily than Poland, France, England, etc.

We're selling to Turkey and they're more of an enemy than Ukraine.

The issue is Zelensky then turned around and said he wanted to put key weapons production in the UK.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2026/07/31/president-trump-pauses-consideration-of-giving-ukraine-patriot-or-tomahawk-missile-systems/
Quote:

Zelenskyy likely did himself no favors when he announced his intention to build missile and drone factories in the U.K. No doubt several Trump administration officials noted that statement and contrast it against Zelenskyy's requests.

Someone else posted the Camp David video response which is a little funny/rambling but I think he (and CTH) is right on the substance here. More at the link.



Z is smart. US cannot be relied upon. US could arbitrarily cut off Ukraine at any moment about anything.
PJYoung
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AG


The attack included 4 Zircons, 27 Iskander-M/S-400 missiles, 2 Kh-31, 2 Kh-59/69 and 185 drones of various types. 30 missiles and 23 drones hit 21 locations.

In Kyiv, 9 killed, 30 wounded. 5 ambulances burned, 20 vehicles damaged, 18 buildings hit, a school and Lithuania's embassy damaged.

Rossticus
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Agree. The goal should be for Ukraine to be as independent as possible in weapons production, with us filling gaps. If we're choosing to behave punitively over that, then I think that absolutely speaks to our underlying motivation and ultimate level of trustworthiness.
Rossticus
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fullback44
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Rossticus said:



Not sure why Ukraine doesn't use this same strategy in Moscow… tooth for a tooth. Those cheap long range drones landing all over around Moscow would cause serious issues for Pooty
txags92
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fullback44 said:

Rossticus said:



Not sure why Ukraine doesn't use this same strategy in Moscow… tooth for a tooth. Those cheap long range drones landing all over around Moscow would cause serious issues for Pooty


I think that is what Putin is trying to provoke them into doing. He needs to get the public behind his mass mobilization and the best way to do it is to goad Ukraine into killing a bunch of Russian civilians in a big city like Moscow or St Pete. I fully expect that if he can't get them to do it, he will do it himself and blame it on the Ukrainians.
fullback44
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AG
You may be onto something here…. Your probably right on this one
oldcrow91
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PJYoung said:



The attack included 4 Zircons, 27 Iskander-M/S-400 missiles, 2 Kh-31, 2 Kh-59/69 and 185 drones of various types. 30 missiles and 23 drones hit 21 locations.

In Kyiv, 9 killed, 30 wounded. 5 ambulances burned, 20 vehicles damaged, 18 buildings hit, a school and Lithuania's embassy damaged.




9 is bad if it's you or your family but Curtis LeMay would say they aren't having a real war.
P.U.T.U
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Russia is doing one of largest conscriptions and say they are trying to take the heart out of Ukraine. Don't think they are backing down anytime soon.
74OA
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lb3
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That's wild. Either that thing's altimeter is off or Ukraine has upgraded their cruise missile considerably.
Rossticus
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Sq 17
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Russia backs down when Putin falls out of a window
Maybe his situation is so secure that's is impervious to the outside world.
Hopefully somebody has a way to end this soon
Gilligan
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P.U.T.U said:

Russia is doing one of largest conscriptions and say they are trying to take the heart out of Ukraine. Don't think they are backing down anytime soon.


So much death and destruction for one man's folly!
Rossticus
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JFABNRGR
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“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
Teslag
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This was missed recently. Ukraine now receives 2/3'rds of their intelligence data from France.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/68187

Quote:

French President Emmanuel Macron said Thursday that Paris has replaced the US as the main intelligence provider to Kyiv in the latter's defense against the Russian invasion.
Macron said that two-thirds of Kyiv's intelligence capabilities now come from Paris during a speech given to the French army

This combined with the Trump Administration delaying the remaining aid package to 2029 has essentially given Ukraine free reign to strike targets at will without worrying too much about our approval.

Over a year ago Trump/Vance said Zelenskyy had no cards. So he just went out got a full deck.
74OA
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Informative interview with Ukraine's Fire Point boss who is adding key cards to Zelensky's hand.

"Fire Point's FP-1 and FP-2 drones have been striking Russian targets to devastating effect and its heavy-hitting Flamingo cruise missiles are adding a new level of long-range threat.

Beyond these, Fire Point is developing the FP-9 ballistic missile to hit targets up to about 500 miles away and the FP-7.x ballistic missile interceptor, intended to provide a more plentiful and cheaper alternative to Patriot munitions."

INNOVATION
Claude!
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Necessity is the mother of invention, as they say.
PJYoung
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lb3 said:

That's wild. Either that thing's altimeter is off or Ukraine has upgraded their cruise missile considerably.

Yeah I saw a tweet that said they now fly around 15 meters off of the deck.

Pretty amazing.
RikkiTikkaTagem
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PJYoung said:

lb3 said:

That's wild. Either that thing's altimeter is off or Ukraine has upgraded their cruise missile considerably.

Yeah I saw a tweet that said that now fly around 15 meters off of the deck.

Pretty amazing.
74OA
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Another example of Russia's criminal "Human Safari" using drones to randomly hunt civilians.

USAFAg
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****ing Russians.
Gilligan
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Somebody post the video of the VDV paratrooper celebrating VDV airborne forces day and jumping to his death. His chute was a Roman candle and splatnik!

eric76
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74OA said:

Another example of Russia's criminal "Human Safari" using drones to randomly hunt civilians.



It would be tempting to carry a pair of scissors with you so that whenever you see a drone's fiber optic control cable, you can cut it just in case the drone is still active.
74OA
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eric76 said:

74OA said:

Another example of Russia's criminal "Human Safari" using drones to randomly hunt civilians.



It would be tempting to carry a pair of scissors with you so that whenever you see a drone's fiber optic control cable, you can cut it just in case the drone is still active.

"Yuriy said he and his wife had started to lay out crates of vegetables next to his van when he heard a distinctive buzzing sound overhead.
When his wife ran away, the drone turned to him instead. He held up some heads of garlic towards the drone's camera to show the operator that he was not trying to film it.
"It could see that I had tomatoes out, some cucumbers and eggplants laid out on the floor," Yuriy said. "It even ducked under the umbrella when I was running away round the other side."

More COVERAGE.
eric76
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74OA said:

eric76 said:

74OA said:

Another example of Russia's criminal "Human Safari" using drones to randomly hunt civilians.



It would be tempting to carry a pair of scissors with you so that whenever you see a drone's fiber optic control cable, you can cut it just in case the drone is still active.

"Yuriy said he and his wife had started to lay out crates of vegetables next to his van when he heard a distinctive buzzing sound overhead.
When his wife ran away, the drone turned to him instead. He held up some heads of garlic towards the drone's camera to show the operator that he was not trying to film it.
"It could see that I had tomatoes out, some cucumbers and eggplants laid out on the floor," Yuriy said. "It even ducked under the umbrella when I was running away round the other side."

More COVERAGE.

Between two fixed objects, a cable dangles in a shape called a catenary. It's simple physics. We covered this in both my undergraduate Classical Mechanics course in Physics and in my graduate Special Topics in the Calculus of Variations course in Mathematics.

Of course, it won't be perfect because the drone is moving, but it should give a good idea of the path. That cable is highly unlikely to be floating around in the air.

Presumably there is some distance between the operator and the drone. Unless the length of the cable is short or the endpoints are high in the air, that cable is going to be on the ground for much of the distance and would be susceptible to being broken or severed along that path.

Assuming that the cable is reasonably thin (if it was thick, it would seem like that would be a great deal of weight for the drone to carry or pull), any citizen along that part of the path where it is on or close to the ground could simply cut the cable and sever the control of the operator over the drone.
USAFAg
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