***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Rossticus
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 3:36p, 6/22/26
JFABNRGR said:
If putin offered to end the war today as per current lines of control I am confident Zelensky and the whole of Ukraine would tell him to F himself.


He won't offer that until the lines reach the point that he's already claimed ownership over. And even then he'll reject anything that allows Ukraine to realistically resist when Russia comes back to finish the job. Id be shocked if Russia ever offers an actual compromise settlement that doesn't include a poison pill for Ukraine's future as a truly independent state.
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PJYoung
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In reply to 74OA • 4:57p, 6/22/26
AG
74OA said:




The General Staff announced the destruction of the Dubna space communications center in the Moscow region.
Dubna is one of the key nodes of the Russian satellite infrastructure, through which communication channels, ground stations, and satellite network maintenance operate.
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Stressboy
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In reply to lb3 • 6:06p, 6/22/26
AG
lb3 said:
Teslag said:

Quote:
As long as Russia holds more Ukrainian land than Ukrainians hold of Russian land. The Russians are winning.


If this war ended today, there is simply no way anyone could consider this a "win" for Russia, despite holding more of Ukraine than vice versa. Russia didn't sacrifice thousands upon thousand, hoards of national treasure, and sacrificing their future generations for what they have today. Not even close. The general consensus in February of 2022 was that Ukraine would cease to exist in months if not weeks. If anyone could see 4 years in to the future and see the current state of things they'd consider it a massive win for Ukraine.


Quote:
has no significant weapons advantages


Also worth debating as well. Ukrainian drone tech right now is not only better than Russia, it may be better than most countries on earth.
Russia has an advantage in fiber optic drones. Ukraine has an advantage in ground drones and anti-drone drones. They're basically at parity on that front. Add effective AI and not just machine learning and that could change. In all other weapon systems Ukraine is at parity or behind.


Then how are they destroying the Russian rear supply lines? Is it because the Russians don't yet have an anti-drone deterrent?
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Rossticus
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7:32p, 6/22/26
The proverbial feces appears to be hitting the fan in Kerch this evening.






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Rossticus
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8:27p, 6/22/26
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Rossticus
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8:32p, 6/22/26
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Rossticus
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8:45p, 6/22/26
Nothing that we don't already know, but a nice, succinct summary by Zeihan. Hits the high points.

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lb3
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In reply to Rossticus • 8:45p, 6/22/26
AG
I'm pretty certain Ukraine has distributed production like Japan in WWII.
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Rossticus
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9:16p, 6/22/26
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Rossticus • 10:02p, 6/22/26
AG
I doubt anything serious is happening to the bridge tonight. It's going to take some serious damage to put that thing out of commission. I'm curious if we'll see some knicks in it, or maybe UA is going after ferries again.
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Rossticus
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 10:49p, 6/22/26
Yeah, I don't think they're dropping the bridge. It's already mostly useless for anything apart from civilian travel and light cargo. Looks like a much of the attack has been focused on other areas of infrastructure.

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Rossticus
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11:04p, 6/22/26


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Rossticus
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11:07p, 6/22/26
How thoughtful of them to position AD assets along busy streets. What could possibly go wrong?

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74OA
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In reply to lb3 • 5:17a, 6/23/26
AG
lb3 said:
Teslag said:

Quote:
As long as Russia holds more Ukrainian land than Ukrainians hold of Russian land. The Russians are winning.


If this war ended today, there is simply no way anyone could consider this a "win" for Russia, despite holding more of Ukraine than vice versa. Russia didn't sacrifice thousands upon thousand, hoards of national treasure, and sacrificing their future generations for what they have today. Not even close. The general consensus in February of 2022 was that Ukraine would cease to exist in months if not weeks. If anyone could see 4 years in to the future and see the current state of things they'd consider it a massive win for Ukraine.


Quote:
has no significant weapons advantages


Also worth debating as well. Ukrainian drone tech right now is not only better than Russia, it may be better than most countries on earth.

Russia has an advantage in fiber optic drones. Ukraine has an advantage in ground drones and anti-drone drones. They're basically at parity on that front. Add effective AI and not just machine learning and that could change. In all other weapon systems Ukraine is at parity or behind.

You're missing the larger point. Those are largely tactical defensive drones. Ukraine dominates in the employment of strategic offensive drones and is using them to conduct a classic interdiction campaign that is now penetrating throughout the depth of Russia. That is not parity, it is a huge advantage.

"Cheap, mass-produced Ukrainian long-range one-way attack drones are breaking through one of the most expensive air defense networks ever assembled, with a 20 to 30 percent penetration rate that is proving sufficient to systematically dismantle Russia's oil refining industry and degrade its military logistics.

Russia spent decades and hundreds of billions of dollars building an air defense system designed to stop American bombers and cruise missiles. Ukraine bypassed the question of how to defeat it and asked a different one instead: how many cheap drones does it take to overwhelm it? The answer, refined over two years of operational learning, appears to be: more than Russia can intercept, launched faster than Russia can replace its missiles."

PENETRATION
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nortex97
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6:20a, 6/23/26
AG

A very benevolent offer, imho.
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sclaff
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 8:05a, 6/23/26
AG
Waffledynamics said:
I doubt anything serious is happening to the bridge tonight. It's going to take some serious damage to put that thing out of commission. I'm curious if we'll see some knicks in it, or maybe UA is going after ferries again.


The Kerch bridge stays up so Russian occupiers have the means to get out and stay out
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Rossticus
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9:11a, 6/23/26




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Rossticus
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9:15a, 6/23/26
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txags92
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In reply to Rossticus • 9:19a, 6/23/26
AG
The children of Pskov cry out for vengeance…

/Tom Clancy
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Rossticus • 10:30a, 6/23/26
AG
You can see rebuilt parts of the city on satellite view in Google Maps. It's creepy.

As a side note, you can also look at several towns and cities in Eastern Ukraine and see their destroyed ruins. It's not perfectly up to date, but you can see, for example, the ruins of Bakhmut. Russia really is just bombing these places to rubble.
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PJYoung
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11:18a, 6/23/26
AG
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PJYoung
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11:18a, 6/23/26
AG
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74OA
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11:31a, 6/23/26
AG
For the first time, Russia is suddenly building protective shelters for its strategic bomber force.

"Consistent Ukrainian drone (and also cruise missile) attacks have made it clear that Russia's bomber bases are among the most prized targets for Kyiv. Ukraine's ability to strike facilities of this kind by various means has now driven the expansion of the program to build protective shelters to Engels Air Base, something that is unprecedented for Russia, even going back to the Cold War. The construction marks a new doctrine of force protection for the Russian bomber fleet, which has suffered losses that are very hard to replace. With Moscow now coming under mass air attack in broad daylight, it appears the threat from long-range strikes is now growing at what is clearly an alarming rate for Russia."

BOMBERS

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Rossticus
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3:13p, 6/23/26
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Rossticus
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3:18p, 6/23/26
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Rossticus
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4:06p, 6/23/26
Wonder how long before Putin prohibits remaining Russians from leaving Crimea?

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Waffledynamics
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4:29p, 6/23/26
AG
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Rossticus
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7:03p, 6/23/26

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Rossticus
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9:15p, 6/23/26


"This video gives an idea of how severely yesterday's UA strike against the semiconductor factory in Voronezh, which affects the MFK-, ballistics-, and UAV industries in RU , has impacted them. In addition to the highly specialized equipment that cannot be quickly replaced, personnel were also lost.

#Addendum: The Kremlin and the RU Ministry of Defense are keeping silent, by the way, about the casualty figures that have arisen in Voronezh. For good reason. Normally, these are published first to put the UA in the pillory. Here, they want to prevent highly specialized engineers from quitting their jobs in the RU arms industry out of fear. The "brain drain" is already massive anyway. of course, such a successful UA strike doesn't just have an immediate kinetic effect, but also a psychological one on highly qualified personnel who now see themselves as targets. The UA strike didn't happen in the middle of the night, but at 11:00 a.m., when full staffing can be assumed. The one or the other in the RU arms industry, who could easily find another job, will now be thinking exactly about that."
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Rossticus
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9:42p, 6/23/26
Crimea, round 2

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Sq 17
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6:44a, 6/24/26
Seems like more successful strikes by the Ukes in the past several days

Is it more Weapons from EU?
Russian defenses finally being worn down ?
Ukes making more effective drone attack vehicles ?
Or a little bit of everything
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GAC06
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In reply to Sq 17 • 6:47a, 6/24/26
AG
A bit of each IMO. The strike on the chip plant was with new US cruise missiles bought by the Euros if I recall correctly. Also Ukraine is producing more and better drones to strike deep into Russia, which is depleting Russian air defense both logistically and through actual attrition
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txags92
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10:03a, 6/24/26
AG
They are using the Iran approach and are making the Russians shoot expensive SAMs at cheap drones by the hundreds and depleting the orc air defenses. then sending better and faster drones and missiles after the high value targets.
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PJYoung
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In reply to txags92 • 10:17a, 6/24/26
AG
txags92 said:
They are using the Iran approach and are making the Russians shoot expensive SAMs at cheap drones by the hundreds and depleting the orc air defenses. then sending better and faster drones and missiles after the high value targets.

There are plenty of decoy high speed drones mixed in as well
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Rossticus
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10:20a, 6/24/26
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