***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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JFABNRGR
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2:21p, 6/9/26
AG
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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74OA
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2:43p, 6/9/26
AG
Interesting look at Ukraine's increasingly successful mid-range drone campaign against Russian logistics, seeking to isolate the battlefield from adequate, timely resupply.

"To learn more about this campaign, we reached out to one of the soldiers leading this effort from the unit that created it. In an exclusive interview, an Unmanned Systems Department Officer for the First Corps Azov of the National Guard of Ukraine offered us unique insights into how the program began, how it's going, where it is headed and how AI is helping to identify and hit targets deep behind the lines."

Ukraine has essentially created a micro air force and is now conducting a classic interdiction campaign.

INTERDICTION
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PJYoung
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In reply to sclaff • 3:55p, 6/9/26
AG
sclaff said:

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Rossticus
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7:37p, 6/9/26
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Rossticus
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7:44p, 6/9/26
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2wealfth Man
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In reply to Rossticus • 8:07p, 6/9/26
AG
Rossticus said:

yep, someone going to see an opportunity to grab power here soon with all of the dis-satisfaction swirling around Putin from the inside. He had better watch his back 27x7 at this point.
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fullback44
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In reply to PJYoung • 8:42p, 6/9/26
AG
PJYoung said:
sclaff said:


This second part is going to cause a lot of Russian generals to pucker up, they are life long targets for the Ukraine intelligence because of all the civilians they have killed.. finding the window may be an easier option…
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Rossticus
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In reply to 2wealfth Man • 9:03p, 6/9/26
2wealfth Man said:
Rossticus said:

yep, someone going to see an opportunity to grab power here soon with all of the dis-satisfaction swirling around Putin from the inside. He had better watch his back 27x7 at this point.


Putin is going to go full Hitler level paranoia at some point, if he hasn't already. He wants to rule Russia for as long as humanly possible and will never voluntarily cede power. Have you seen where he's appointed his daughter as head of a government sponsored life extension research program? The guy has aspirations to reach well beyond his current level of supervillain-dom. Pretty insane.
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Gaeilge
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9:08p, 6/9/26
Damn…is it just me or does it seem like Ukraine is actually 'winning' this war right now?

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Rossticus
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In reply to Gaeilge • 9:11p, 6/9/26
Insofar as keeping Russia from winning equals Ukraine winning, then yes.
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txags92
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In reply to 2wealfth Man • 9:24p, 6/9/26
AG
2wealfth Man said:
Rossticus said:

yep, someone going to see an opportunity to grab power here soon with all of the dis-satisfaction swirling around Putin from the inside. He had better watch his back 27x7 at this point.

Somebody is laying the groundwork for a chance to put him in a vulnerable position. His days are likely numberered. Might still be in triple digits, but he will eventually be ousted.
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Waffledynamics
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9:32p, 6/9/26
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Quote:
Oil refinery was attacked in Novokuybyshevsk of Samara region

https://liveuamap.com/en/2026/10-june-01-oil-refinery-was-attacked-in-novokuybyshevsk-of
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fullback44
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In reply to txags92 • 9:56p, 6/9/26
AG
txags92 said:
2wealfth Man said:
Rossticus said:

yep, someone going to see an opportunity to grab power here soon with all of the dis-satisfaction swirling around Putin from the inside. He had better watch his back 27x7 at this point.

Somebody is laying the groundwork for a chance to put him in a vulnerable position. His days are likely numberered. Might still be in triple digits, but he will eventually be ousted.

This is not going well for Putin, with all the drones the Ukraine has, Russia can't get supplies into the fronts now and Ukraine is shelling big ticket items in and around the big cities, plus targeting energy infrastructure - Putin never thought this war would come to his door step…. He's gonna be ousted is my guess, just a matter of time if the elites are more and more against this war
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Waffledynamics
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10:26p, 6/9/26
AG
Ukraine launched Flamingos tonight. At least one, maybe more, has impacted Cheboksary in Russia.
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Rossticus
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10:35p, 6/9/26
Good thread

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Rossticus
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10:37p, 6/9/26
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Rossticus
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10:47p, 6/9/26
Pretty sick

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benchmark
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In reply to Rossticus • 6:28a, 6/10/26
AG
Rossticus said:
Good thread

Thanks for sharing. Here's a quick copy/paste of posts 16-19.
Quote:
To paraphrase Robert Brovdi, a major point is being missed by most analysts and intelligence agencies. Most focus on a single "silver bullet." What's the magical drone? The secret sauce is in the entire system: battlefield management, assessment, training, continuous improvement, and C2. It's not Hornet. 15/19

Ukrainian drone teams are rapidly adopting a Western battlefield approach. A professional NCO corps and junior officers are enabled to make their own decisions to achieve their tactical and operational objectives. The best are rewarded with more resources. 16/19

That's the "silver bullet." Twelve months from now, Hornet as it is today will almost certainly be obsolete and replaced by 3 to 5 even better UAVs. Ukraine's battlefield management will be further improved, etc. It will literally take Russia a generation to embrace these types of changes. 17/19

We believe that Russia faces a steep hill to climb in adapting to Ukraine's shift in tactics. We also believe it is naive to assume that Russia can't/won't adapt. We also believe that when it comes to the "architecture" of drone warfare, Russia has fallen far behind, with almost no chance of catching up. 18/19

In closing, Russia's adaptation to Ukraine's drone wall and mid-range strikes will probably not be an "obvious answer," because the obvious answers already exist, are blocked, or can't/won't scale. If all else fails for Russia, fall/winter weather will slow the strikes. 19/19

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Waffledynamics
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10:19a, 6/10/26
AG


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74OA
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11:23a, 6/10/26
AG
Satellite imagery indicates that Russia's strategic tank reserve is nearly gone.

Most of what is left is either antiques, unrepairable or already heavily cannibalized. This sort of thing must have senior Russian military leaders worried about their ability to defend Russia itself, much less continue the invasion.

JUNK
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Rossticus
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1:41p, 6/10/26
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Rossticus
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1:43p, 6/10/26
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Rossticus
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1:45p, 6/10/26
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Rossticus
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1:47p, 6/10/26
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Rossticus
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1:52p, 6/10/26
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Rossticus
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1:52p, 6/10/26
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PJYoung
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In reply to Rossticus • 2:04p, 6/10/26
AG
Rossticus said:

It's always fascinating to hear lectures about peace from a country that launched the largest war in Europe since World War II.

In the Kremlin's worldview, invading your neighbor is normal. Helping the victim defend itself is the real provocation.
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lb3
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In reply to PJYoung • 2:10p, 6/10/26
AG
Joke's on Russia. Canada doesn't have any defense facilities.
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Rossticus
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6:54p, 6/10/26


The UN has officially accused Russian military personnel of numerous cases of sexual violence against Ukrainian men, women, and girls.

Justifying the Russian military, Nebenzia stated that the hundreds of cases of sexual violence documented by the UN "do not have a systematic character."
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BQ_90
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In reply to Rossticus • 6:56p, 6/10/26
AG
What's the UN gonna do about, appoint Iran as lead investigator
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Rossticus
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6:58p, 6/10/26
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Rossticus
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In reply to BQ_90 • 6:59p, 6/10/26
BQ_90 said:
What's the UN gonna do about, appoint Iran as lead investigator


A strongly worded letter and non-binding resolution. China, Iran, and some sub-Saharan African country will jointly draft the letter.
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fullback44
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In reply to Rossticus • 8:40p, 6/10/26
AG
Rossticus said:
BQ_90 said:
What's the UN gonna do about, appoint Iran as lead investigator


A strongly worded letter and non-binding resolution. China, Iran, and some sub-Saharan African country will jointly draft the letter.

Don't forget they will then ask the US for a few billion dollars to help write the letter
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Waffledynamics
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8:51p, 6/10/26
AG


Quote:
Ukrainian forces have been conducting for weeks two unnoticed counter-attacks in two directions of the frontline.

With barely any geolocation, the Ukrainians kept a good level of OPSEC and the russians have been reluctant to publish videos from these areas.

In the Ivanivka region, the Ukrainians consolidated their earlier gains and pushed back the Russian army from few villages, with more disputed areas as we could see with some recent geolocations. The Ukrainians regained full control on Ivanivka and Novopavlivka, reinforcing the only new defensive line reached, which has been on the frontline for more than 8 months.

In the Lyman direction, after the May 22nd mechanized assault on Nove, the ukrainians managed to consolidate their gains as seen in recent geolocations as well as satellite images. Confirmation will probably come soon from official ukrainian outlets (probably deepstate), so I can't tell you more for now, but satellite images analysis is suggesting maps are far behind in this area.

This shows that despite apparent russian initiative, the ukrainians continue to launch multiple counter-attacks on key areas of the frontline.

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Rossticus
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10:45p, 6/10/26
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