Russian advances have largely stagnated while Ukrainian forces have achieved some tactical successes in 2026. ISW continues to assess that the Russian military command's repeated exaggerations have likely given Putin a false perception of the battlefield situation.
ISW has observed evidence that Russian forces have seized 99.77 percent of Luhansk Oblast, 79.93 percent of Donetsk Oblast, and 74.99 percent of Zaporizhia Oblast as of June 5. Even including areas in which Russian forces have infiltrated but do not control falls short of Putin's claims.
ISW assesses as of June 5 that Russian forces maintain a presence (either through advances or infiltrations) in 99.77 percent of Luhansk Oblast, 80.82 percent of Donetsk Oblast, and 75.7 percent of Zaporizhia Oblast.
Ukrainian forces have liberated more territory than Russian forces seized in April and May 2026, highlighting Russia's dwindling battlefield performance and Ukraine's successes in halting the Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive.
Russian forces are struggling to advance in 2026 at the same rates that Russian forces did in 2025, in part due to successful Ukrainian ground counterattacks that have liberated tactically significant areas and Ukraine's growing mid-range strike campaign that is inhibiting Russian logistics and ability to sustain attacks on the frontline.
Given current trends, it remains unclear that Russian forces will be able to seize the Fortress Belt or the remainder of Donetsk Oblast at all.