***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,536,993 Views | 47716 Replies | Last: 16 hrs ago by 74OA
SidsBurnerAccount
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amercer said:

SidsBurnerAccount said:

cone said:

credit to US intelligence for being directly over the target on this
The Russians surrounding Ukraine with 3/4s of their entire military was a pretty short putt from an intelligence perspective.


And yet the Ukrainians (and Euros) didn't think it would happen
I agree. Czech prez said today he was wrong. I can't understand why people didn't think reality would intrude, but here we are. I'm no longer surprised at the incompetence of people in any industry, but certainly in government and the military.
Irish 2.0
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JobSecurity said:


Cowards
CharlieBrown17
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AG
If the ruskies manage to basically JFE Kyiv they'll get a hat tip from me
Robert C. Christian
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Tex117 said:

LMCane said:

Keegan99 said:

Marco getting reports straight from US Intel.

This isn't a politician freestyling.




use of battlefield nukes to "escalate to deescalate"

that sounds charming!
Well, to be fair, thats basically what we did against the Japanese. (Not saying any of this is a good idea).
Yea, this seems like a much worse idea when you aren't the only country with nukes. Add in point #2 and that seems like a potentially catastrophic domino effect.
txags92
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The Germans have never been about doing the right thing, only whatever is best for them economically. Germany didn't capitulate in WWII because they realized how wrong they were, the gave up because tanks rolled into Berlin and their industrial capacity was completely destroyed. For decades afterwards, millions of Germans would tell anybody who asked that they had no idea what was happening with the Jews, despite watching as their neighbors and friends were arrested and led away by the SS. Germany knows Russia is wrong here...but they don't want to do anything that inconvenience Germany. They don't care how many innocent people die or have to live under a puppet government ruled by a tyrant, they just care that their gas supply keeps flowing.
P.U.T.U
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JobSecurity said:


That is a good size transport aircraft, wonder who/what is onboard
jabberwalkie09
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P.U.T.U said:

Lots of reports of F35s and other aircraft moving from Europe to the Baltics seen here.

We have seen E3s in the air and from what I remember they can control out to around 300 miles. Ukraine is around 800 miles across and I am not sure how far they are allowing the E3s to fly. Russia has similar technology capabilities as the US has with drones and satellites so if needed the F35s can help out in that role. Not ideal since getting one of those shot down would be huge

I'm aware of the DoD and NATO's published asset movements. What I'm saying is this: no NATO aircraft will be entering Ukrainian airspace for the foreseeable future. There simply is too much at risk militarily for that to happen. E-3's can work from outside the border of Ukraine. I'd expect that to be doing racetracks/or it's over Poland.

If one of our planes is downed, fired upon when not in the conflict zone, or there is an incursion into NATO friendly airspace by Russian that will change the game.
LMCane
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Sky News better than any of the leftist media
jabberwalkie09
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P.U.T.U said:

JobSecurity said:


That is a good size transport aircraft, wonder who/what is onboard

I'm going to assuming VDV, Russian airborne forces.
HumpitPuryear
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JobSecurity said:



use of battlefield nukes to "escalate to deescalate" - Couple this with Putin's warning about interference and you can understand where Germany is coming from. We are talking about a guy (Putin) that has recklessly invaded and is in the process of murdering Ukrainians without provocation. Who really wants to bet he wouldn't escalate the conflict based on the West's "interference" in the form of crippling sanctions?

This has a high chance of getting well beyond Ukraine. Even Russian forces capturing US or other western country special forces or import of supplies to the Ukrainians could set off some nasty repercussions.
cone
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the fact that the russians can't roll middle of night complete dark surprised me not going to lie
MouthBQ98
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I'd tend to think in that proximity, both aircraft were Russian, or the airspace is very chaotic and the pilots on both sides fairly unpracticed.
txags92
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JobSecurity said:


Amazing how much the early stages of this war mimic what Tom Clancy wrote in Red Storm Rising about how the Soviets took Iceland. The capture of the airport and then direct resupply is straight out of the book.
LMCane
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P.U.T.U said:

JobSecurity said:


That is a good size transport aircraft, wonder who/what is onboard
so they know about Russian transport aircraft coming from hours away

but can't blow up massive bridges that Russia is using as super-highways?!?

seems like there are no actual Ukes fighting, just relaying US intel reports.
MouthBQ98
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If they went in in daylight is is because they want to be seen, and they want the visual imagery projected.
cone
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yeah i don't buy it

i think they are tech limited
jabberwalkie09
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CharlieBrown17 said:

jabberwalkie09 said:

CharlieBrown17 said:

35s do have really excellent ways to take and share data across multiple platforms.

They would be more of a bridge than actual ATC.

If we are doing anything more than defensive CAP over Poland I'd be surprised.

Right, that's the thought I was trying to draw out. I know that 35's have data link capabilities.


Not my world but I could see them pinging a F-16 with a target for SEAD or similar

But having them be actually in charge of airspace seems wasteful

Right, I think F-16's would be much more suited to SEAD. Think F-4's during the first Gulf War.
aeroag14
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MouthBQ98 said:

I'd tend to think in that proximity, both aircraft were Russian, or the airspace is very chaotic and the pilots on both sides fairly unpracticed.

Or could be both. The Russian air force is CERTAINLY not as well drilled as our air force. There have been a few data points recently that have shown that.
MouthBQ98
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Got them by the carbon balls.
JobSecurity
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jabberwalkie09 said:

P.U.T.U said:

JobSecurity said:


That is a good size transport aircraft, wonder who/what is onboard

I'm going to assuming VDV, Russian airborne forces.
Twitter seems to think this. Heading toward Hostomel as reinforcements?

JobSecurity
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Rubio with the confirmation

aezmvp
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JobSecurity said:

jabberwalkie09 said:

P.U.T.U said:

JobSecurity said:


That is a good size transport aircraft, wonder who/what is onboard

I'm going to assuming VDV, Russian airborne forces.
Twitter seems to think this. Heading toward Hostomel as reinforcements?


I'm kind of surprised by the lack of video of manpads firing on these helicopters in Kyiv. If there was one place that would be a good place to put some stingers there. Really surprised.
WestTexAg12
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JobSecurity said:

jabberwalkie09 said:

P.U.T.U said:

JobSecurity said:


That is a good size transport aircraft, wonder who/what is onboard

I'm going to assuming VDV, Russian airborne forces.
Twitter seems to think this. Heading toward Hostomel as reinforcements?




Would love to see a SAM site take aim at those IL-76s.
BlackGoldAg2011
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MouthBQ98 said:

I'd tend to think in that proximity, both aircraft were Russian, or the airspace is very chaotic and the pilots on both sides fairly unpracticed.
this was my thought too. both on the same side flying as a pair. because if they are in an engagement, that low flyer looks like he is about to have the higher/slower jet drop in on his tail. all hard to tell though due to the angle we see it from, the video quality, and the short duration of the clip.

i will offer the disclaimer that all of my "experience" with air-to-air engagements and aircraft identification is from DCS, so i'm more than happy to be corrected and learn something if anyone has better info.
The Kraken
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Can staff put a warning on the OP and take out the trash, por favor?
plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose
jabberwalkie09
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JobSecurity said:

jabberwalkie09 said:

P.U.T.U said:

JobSecurity said:


That is a good size transport aircraft, wonder who/what is onboard

I'm going to assuming VDV, Russian airborne forces.
Twitter seems to think this. Heading toward Hostomel as reinforcements?



My armchair opinion is that the VDV will be used to help make pushes in areas that are deemed strategically or politically important. I don't know the terrain of Ukraine well enough to really say that they will drop assets on target, but it would be quicker than having to traverse the Ukrainian land with potential to get popped by a javelin or Ukrainian T-64.
BlackGoldAg2011
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JobSecurity said:

jabberwalkie09 said:

P.U.T.U said:

JobSecurity said:


That is a good size transport aircraft, wonder who/what is onboard

I'm going to assuming VDV, Russian airborne forces.
Twitter seems to think this. Heading toward Hostomel as reinforcements?


Isn't this basically what that CNN reporter who was reporting from the Russian controlled Antonov international airport said? that the Russian troops told him they were securing the airport so that Russia could fly in reinforcements and land there?
JobSecurity
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jabberwalkie09
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JobSecurity said:



SHe's literally asking for us to jump into their war.
Whirligigs
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So many tweets and multiple conflicting sources. Conventional war shown in real time tweet storms is a **** show - just like war itself. It's going to be an interesting time now.
Furlock Bones
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New World Ag said:

Can staff put a warning on the OP and take out the trash, por favor?
I was thinking the same thing. I don't understand why it's so hard for some posters to not make the same dumb political comments on every thread.
LMCane
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Uke spokesman in USA stated a platoon of Russians surrendered when they realized they were invading..

so at least they took 30 guys off the battlefield.

Odessa is a city of over a million people- how does it get captured in a few hours when the Russkies were coming from a hundred miles away?!?
TX04Aggie
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Sun has set in Ukraine. Curious to see what night time brings in some of these areas, particularly around Kharkiv where it has been reported boots on ground combat happening between forces.

jabberwalkie09
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BlackGoldAg2011 said:

JobSecurity said:

jabberwalkie09 said:

P.U.T.U said:

JobSecurity said:


That is a good size transport aircraft, wonder who/what is onboard

I'm going to assuming VDV, Russian airborne forces.
Twitter seems to think this. Heading toward Hostomel as reinforcements?


Isn't this basically what that CNN reporter who was reporting from the Russian controlled Antonov international airport said? that the Russian troops told him they were securing the airport so that Russia could fly in reinforcements and land there?

Landing a bunch of planes in the middle of a battle space where ground control is in querying is a big, big risk. Even for the Russians imo. You lose a plane or the runway is fouled then you lose the use of the airport until it's cleared leaving assets in limbo. It would be worse if the assets were stranded on the ground for the Russians, but a good opportunity for Ukrainians to blow up a lot of stuff if it happened.

I think Russia would drop the assets over the airfield to reinforce control before landing aircraft.
Layne Staley
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Its a good thing that Biden put a moratorium on trading Russian debt in the secondary market (only for debt that has not been issued yet as March 1st is the creation date prohibited).

That's really keeping the Russians from invading Ukraine. Those soldiers are really worried about the future sovereign debt of Russia.
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