twk said:

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But, getting back to the topic of this thread, sanctions are not having a dramatic effect on the battlefield. It has hurt the Russians, depriving them of the technology needed for certain weapons, but it has not crippled them, nor will it in the foreseeable future. Sanctions will not bring victory for Ukraine.

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All mostly true ... but sanctions have benefits beyond punitive. Lifting sanctions will play a huge role in peace talks when the time comes.

At what point do we give Ukraine the ability to go after Russia's military production?

Surely Raytheon has some Tomahawk vertical launchers used in ground testing that could be rushed to Ukraine.

not sure if this is more of the James Vazquez type of BS-

but if true would be a nice op for Team Ukraine:

US Ex Marine infiltrates Russkie Trench with special forces

Quote:

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Ukraine defence forces have partial success in advance at Novodanylivka Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka - Novofedorivka directions, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/23-june-ukraine-defence-forces-have-partial-success-in-advance

Is there a version that doesn't require an app download?

Germany joins the growing chorus demanding that Russia pay to rebuild Ukraine.

COMPENSATION

.......and, yes, there is both legal and moral justification for transferring seized Russian assets and cash.

MONEY

nortex97 said:

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The Vikhr (air to ground/anti-tank) missiles the KA-52's are firing supposedly have a range out to 10 or 12km, which is past what stingers/most manpads can reach. They only have around a hundred of these helicopters, but I'm not sure if the Mi-28's etc. in the theater also can fire them.

The Ukrainians need to figure out air support.

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The Mi-28 can, but I think it's much more limited by it's optics and sensor packages. It may only be the latest M variant that can. They're not as capable as the KA-52, and there also aren't a whole lot of the Mi-28's around either. Russia has lost so many KA-52's (36 confirmed) because Ukraine's airspace proved so hostile to all of their other helicopters that the KA-52 was the only one that really fly in theater.

I think a potential short term solution is suicide drones. Use disposable recon drones several miles ahead of advancing forces to look for helicopters. If they're seen, harass them with suicide drones. They're harder to see than MANPADS and can't be confused by the typical countermeasures because they're being piloted. It may be enough to simply keep them on their toes and prevent them from firing or force them to make a mistake and wander into range of MANPADS.

Rumor.

In the Zaporozhye AO, the UAF were able to advance beyond the first line of Russian defenses and have reached the northern part of the settlement of Robotyne (Роботине). They report they are currently consolidating these gains.

<<The Armed Forces of Ukraine have partial success… pic.twitter.com/g8gDMqnGTL

— OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇦 (@UKikaski) June 23, 2023

For those paying attention this would imply Ukraine brokethrough the first main defense line just north of Tokmak. Obviously cannot confirm that. But we still know that Ukraine has not commited the vast majority of their resources yet and Russia may going through logistics hell right now. Could see the next few weeks as a critical window of opportunity

I would need to look at a topographic map but how Russia setup their defenses Ukraine will be in some nasty cross fires after breaking that first line. Hopefully they have artillery in range that they can advance under but either way there are going to be a lot of losses on both sides

Gordo14 said:

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Rumor.

In the Zaporozhye AO, the UAF were able to advance beyond the first line of Russian defenses and have reached the northern part of the settlement of Robotyne (Роботине). They report they are currently consolidating these gains.

<<The Armed Forces of Ukraine have partial success… pic.twitter.com/g8gDMqnGTL

— OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇦 (@UKikaski) June 23, 2023

For those paying attention this would imply Ukraine brokethrough the first main defense line just north of Tokmak. Obviously cannot confirm that. But we still know that Ukraine has not commited the vast majority of their resources yet and Russia may going through logistics hell right now. Could see the next few weeks as a critical window of opportunity

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That's what is showing on livemap

Russian sources suggesting similar advances for Ukraine

Russian sources claim that Ukrainian forces are only 1.5km from Robotyne and have advanced.

“Our aviation practically did not work.”

Is Russia starting to feel the pain of the downed Ka-52 helicopters? pic.twitter.com/3cGIs5UBkp

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) June 23, 2023

I can also think of 3 or 4 ways to set up some missile traps too. Once you know enemy aviation is in theatre you can come up with strategies to defeat it when it has the limitations Ivan is dealing with.

Really just need to find where they're parked and knock them out there.

Action-Reaction.

⚡️ The Planet Labs satellite recorded a new pontoon crossing erected under the Chongar Bridge after the strikes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

What you need to know
about enemy shelling?
👉 https://t.co/qEPCRgS3v5

👉 Follow @Flash_news_ua pic.twitter.com/p8pUq0Sltn

— FLASH (@Flash_news_ua) June 23, 2023

Gordo14 said:

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Rumor.

In the Zaporozhye AO, the UAF were able to advance beyond the first line of Russian defenses and have reached the northern part of the settlement of Robotyne (Роботине). They report they are currently consolidating these gains.

<<The Armed Forces of Ukraine have partial success… pic.twitter.com/g8gDMqnGTL

— OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇦 (@UKikaski) June 23, 2023

For those paying attention this would imply Ukraine brokethrough the first main defense line just north of Tokmak. Obviously cannot confirm that. But we still know that Ukraine has not commited the vast majority of their resources yet and Russia may going through logistics hell right now. Could see the next few weeks as a critical window of opportunity

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Agree. It's still early, early days. Worth reposting:

"The Ukrainian military is currently trying to achieve three things. Firstly, there is an intense counterbattery duel being fought, with both sides trying to strike each other's logistics, command and control, reconnaissance, and artillery systems. Secondly, the Ukrainians are trying to get the Russians to commit their reserves, moving troops from the third defense line to bolster sectors under pressure. Thirdly, the Ukrainian military is trying to put pressure across the front to advance through the first line of defenses in as much breadth as possible."

PATIENCE

No fresh gravel or asphalt yet for the lane to the pontoon bridge? Where is the urgency?

Robert C. Christian said:

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Huge if true.

BREAKING: Russia's Wagner group says its forces were attacked by Russia's military, vows revenge

— BNO News (@BNONews) June 23, 2023

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Yeah it's really hard to parse through exactly what's going on here. Let's of political theater. It does feel like the power centers in Russia are starting to fracture, and maybe this leads to a civil war kind of scenario. But I don't take everything that Wagner guy (forget how to spell his name) at face value.

Supposed statement:

Full message of Prigozhi "declaring war on the Russian Ministry of Defence:

"PMC Wagner Commanders’ Council made a decision: the evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped.

They neglect the lives of soldiers. They forgot the word “justice”, and we… pic.twitter.com/1tCXPVn07p

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) June 23, 2023

Russian Ministry of Defense says all messages and video posted by Prigozhin claiming the Russian military launched a strike on Prigozhin's Wagner forces "do not correspond to reality and are an informational provocation"
(from the ministry's Telegram channel) pic.twitter.com/cJ1QYohZR6

— Steve Lookner (@lookner) June 23, 2023

But maybe this is a bit bigger deal

Gordo14 said:

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Russian Ministry of Defense says all messages and video posted by Prigozhin claiming the Russian military launched a strike on Prigozhin's Wagner forces "do not correspond to reality and are an informational provocation"
(from the ministry's Telegram channel) pic.twitter.com/cJ1QYohZR6

— Steve Lookner (@lookner) June 23, 2023

But maybe this is a bit bigger deal

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PSYOP to get the Ukes to let down their guard on Wagner?

I have always hoped the war would end like it did in Red Dawn where inside forces took over. Would save a lot of lives on all sides

This seems like it has legs...

JB!98 said:

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Gordo14 said:

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Russian Ministry of Defense says all messages and video posted by Prigozhin claiming the Russian military launched a strike on Prigozhin's Wagner forces "do not correspond to reality and are an informational provocation"
(from the ministry's Telegram channel) pic.twitter.com/cJ1QYohZR6

— Steve Lookner (@lookner) June 23, 2023

But maybe this is a bit bigger deal

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PHSYOP to get the Ukes to let down their guard on Wagner?

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Wagner allegedly isn't even in Ukraine or on the front lines. Also, I'm not sure why Ukraine would treat Wagner any different than any other enemy combatant in Ukraine.

What we do know is a fact is that Wagner and the MOD have been very publicly feuding, and the Shoigu has definitely been trying to limit Prighozun's power and influence. I don't even think that's debateable. But the rest of the drama is... Who the **** knows.

Seems difficult to imagine how this infighting furthers Russia's objectives other than maybe shielding Putin from blame and getting everyone to point fingers at each other. But from a Russia/Ukraine standpoint... Russians are allegedly aware of these palace politics

The net is freaking out. But if it was coup time we'd see craziness in Moscow. Well see!

I hope the NSA/CIA have back channels with Wagner to give them intel on where the Russian MoD officials are fleeing to.

Igor Girkin calling it a coup...

Igor be like:
h/t @MarQs__ pic.twitter.com/tWC7fKNlUj

— Def Mon (@DefMon3) June 23, 2023

I find this coup hard to believe

Gordo14 said:

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Igor Girkin calling it a coup...

Igor be like:
h/t @MarQs__ pic.twitter.com/tWC7fKNlUj

— Def Mon (@DefMon3) June 23, 2023

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This screen grab is a poor photoshop.

TheVarian said:

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I find this coup hard to believe

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Agreed, Russia is very good at misinformation. Makes me feel like Russia is doing this so they can move Wagner to the next hot spot since they are the best fighters Russia has

I do and don't. Seems like very wishful thinking, but Prigozhin and Wagner have been at odds with Shoigu and the regular military for awhile. It's certainly possible and plausible, but then again everything coming out of Russia is suspect.

Robert C. Christian said:

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Supposed statement:

Full message of Prigozhi "declaring war on the Russian Ministry of Defence:

"PMC Wagner Commanders’ Council made a decision: the evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped.

They neglect the lives of soldiers. They forgot the word “justice”, and we… pic.twitter.com/1tCXPVn07p

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) June 23, 2023

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MORE

#BREAKING Wagner chief accuses Russia military leadership of bombing its forces, vows to retaliate pic.twitter.com/KW2pr6VMcj

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) June 23, 2023

So im really to believe Russia is bombing their best fighting force ?