WestAustinAg said:

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kb2001 said:

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eric76 said:

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kb2001 said:

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Yes, it likely is the beginning of WWIII. As soon as Ukraine fights back on Russian troops, or any other country responds kinetically, it will get hot and stay hot. That would likely be what triggers China to join in on Russia's side and attack Taiwan.

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China doesn't have to join Russia's side to attack Taiwan. It is quite possible that they could take advantage of the opportunity to go after Taiwan on their own.

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Of course they don't. But they've already leaked their internal guidelines to state media saying don't speak against Russia. It's clear that Russia and China are acting in concert. We also saw a joint naval maneuver with the two of them in the past 6 months.

When people fight back against Russia, the words have already been laid out for them to call it an attack on Russian peacekeeping forces. China will jump to "Russia's defense", knowing that their northern border is protected by Russia, and the rest of the world will now have two massive nations to fight.

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I don't think China likes what Russia is doing. That's fear lingering. But they sure will take advantage of it and build arms and electronics and healthcare supplies to all the countries at war.

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I hope you're right. I tend to think they have become reluctant friends with Russia, and they will view this as an opportunity to take Taiwan back ("solve the Taiwan problem once and for all", as the guidelines to their media arm put it), and to take full control of the South China Sea.

But but but the media said when Trump extinguished Solemani it was the beginning of WW3.

Also fun fact. only a handful(say 6-12) of modern nuclear warheads would be enough to irradiate the entire planet. Even in a limited capacity this could lead to doom.

waitwhat? said:

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suburban cowboy said:

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I'm no historian, but we are due and it feels like things have aligned in a way that could lead to China, Russia and Iran teaming up against the West.

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We are due for what? World Wars aren't predictable and cyclical like ice ages. In thousands of years of warfare we've had a whopping TWO wars of great enough scale to call them World Wars, and they were within 21ish years of each other 77+ years ago.

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True. However Europe has had a war roughly every 20-40 years for the past 1500 years. The only thing that made the world wars involve the "world" was entangling alliances and colonies seeking independence.

hunter2012 said:

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Also fun fact. only a handful(say 6-12) of modern nuclear warheads would be enough to irradiate the entire planet. Even in a limited capacity this could lead to doom.

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And I live 20 miles from Fort Hood. Not that anyone would target our largest Army installation.



Also, I am certain we will see a nuclear Iran in my lifetime. I am 44.

This signifies the end of a golden era of peace that we've supported since the end of WWII. There won't be another world war but there will be an increase in regional conflicts like this one all over the globe. All over the world there are nations with significant hatred of each other and the US hasn't let them fight for the better part of a century. However since the end of the Cold War we've seen an increasingly disengaged US. Add to that the significant demographic problems faced by Russia and China and you have the makings of a very volatile decade plus as the map remakes itself dramatically. Right now I don't think we have the desire to intervene unless things get really violent. I think we're going to be content to let it play out for awhile. War is expensive and the Russians aren't doing this because they have money to burn. They're doing this because they're desperate and lashing out at anything that might save them.

LOYAL AG said:

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This signifies the end of a golden era of peace that we've supported since the end of WWII. There won't be another world war but there will be an increase in regional conflicts like this one all over the globe. All over the world there are nations with significant hatred of each other and the US hasn't let them fight for the better part of a century. However since the end of the Cold War we've seen an increasingly disengaged US. Add to that the significant demographic problems faced by Russia and China and you have the makings of a very volatile decade plus as the map remakes itself dramatically. Right now I don't think we have the desire to intervene unless things get really violent. I think we're going to be content to let it play out for awhile. War is expensive and the Russians aren't doing this because they have money to burn. They're doing this because they're desperate and lashing out at anything that might save them.

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Right from the Zeihan prognostications and I agree with his macro analysis. His domestic policy analysis is trash from a concerned moderate.

As to the question. If the USA becomes the CommieNazi totalitarian utopia the useful idiots dream of then there will be a world war as the USCN will set out to conquer deplorables around the globe.

hunter2012 said:

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Also fun fact. only a handful(say 6-12) of modern nuclear warheads would be enough to irradiate the entire planet. Even in a limited capacity this could lead to doom.

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An On the Beach fan?

Stressboy said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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This signifies the end of a golden era of peace that we've supported since the end of WWII. There won't be another world war but there will be an increase in regional conflicts like this one all over the globe. All over the world there are nations with significant hatred of each other and the US hasn't let them fight for the better part of a century. However since the end of the Cold War we've seen an increasingly disengaged US. Add to that the significant demographic problems faced by Russia and China and you have the makings of a very volatile decade plus as the map remakes itself dramatically. Right now I don't think we have the desire to intervene unless things get really violent. I think we're going to be content to let it play out for awhile. War is expensive and the Russians aren't doing this because they have money to burn. They're doing this because they're desperate and lashing out at anything that might save them.

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Right from the Zeihan prognostications and I agree with his macro analysis. His domestic policy analysis is trash from a concerned moderate.

As to the question. If the USA becomes the CommieNazi totalitarian utopia the useful idiots dream of then there will be a world war as the USCN will set out to conquer deplorables around the globe.

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Zeihan is great at macro but his understanding of human nature and individuals don't match his understanding of geography, history and demographics. He thinks everyone acts rationally according to economic factors and that's obviously untrue.

If the US falls to Marxism that changes everything in ways that are difficult to project. Obviously we'll see a substantial purge of non-believers but what's next? The global economy is already at a tipping point so how does that transition not get really, really violent?

Just the fluffer phase for WW3 and having no effect on our feckless, slimeball, dementia riddled leader who is only responsive to prepubescent little girls.

80MM* What idiotic godless lemmings.

LOYAL AG said:

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Stressboy said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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This signifies the end of a golden era of peace that we've supported since the end of WWII. There won't be another world war but there will be an increase in regional conflicts like this one all over the globe. All over the world there are nations with significant hatred of each other and the US hasn't let them fight for the better part of a century. However since the end of the Cold War we've seen an increasingly disengaged US. Add to that the significant demographic problems faced by Russia and China and you have the makings of a very volatile decade plus as the map remakes itself dramatically. Right now I don't think we have the desire to intervene unless things get really violent. I think we're going to be content to let it play out for awhile. War is expensive and the Russians aren't doing this because they have money to burn. They're doing this because they're desperate and lashing out at anything that might save them.

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Right from the Zeihan prognostications and I agree with his macro analysis. His domestic policy analysis is trash from a concerned moderate.

As to the question. If the USA becomes the CommieNazi totalitarian utopia the useful idiots dream of then there will be a world war as the USCN will set out to conquer deplorables around the globe.

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Zeihan is great at macro but his understanding of human nature and individuals don't match his understanding of geography, history and demographics. He thinks everyone acts rationally according to economic factors and that's obviously untrue.

If the US falls to Marxism that changes everything in ways that are difficult to project. Obviously we'll see a substantial purge of non-believers but what's next? The global economy is already at a tipping point so how does that transition not get really, really violent?

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It's been a few years since the last non-Marxist President.

Everyone who is just automatically dismissing the possibility of a WWIII situation is kidding themselves, in my opinion. The moment Putin takes it a step farther than Ukraine, we would be in WWIII based on our NATO alliance. Earlier today a Ukranian fighter jet flew into Romanian territory and was escorted to a Romanian base. What if that plane had been chased by a Russian fighter pilot into Romanian airspace.

It literally can take one instance like that to kick off things in a way we do not want to see.

The answer is yes until proven otherwise.

You've got a case of maverick claiming jester dove below the hard deck to avoid the kill.

An errant stray by an over zealous Russian pilot that got caught up in the dog fight and didn't navigate would/ should be quick to disengage hostilities when contacted by neutral forces. If he bugs out, you let it go. If he draws blood you hope like hell cooler heads rule the day.

Let's not Gulf of Tonkin this mess. Let's be more like the Iranians when we accidentally shoot down aone of their civilian planes.

TexAgGrad19 said:

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Everyone who is just automatically dismissing the possibility of a WWIII situation is kidding themselves, in my opinion. The moment Putin takes it a step farther than Ukraine, we would be in WWIII based on our NATO alliance. Earlier today a Ukranian fighter jet flew into Romanian territory and was escorted to a Romanian base. What if that plane had been chased by a Russian fighter pilot into Romanian airspace.

It literally can take one instance like that to kick off things in a way we do not want to see.

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Has the Ukraine joined NATO? I understand that they wan to join but don't know that they have joined.

No they're not a member of NATO. That jet went to Romania looking for a runway. All of their bases are out of commission.

WW3 started 5 years ago. Most of you are still in a slumber and don't realize it.

kb2001 said:

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waitwhat? said:

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suburban cowboy said:

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I'm no historian, but we are due and it feels like things have aligned in a way that could lead to China, Russia and Iran teaming up against the West.

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We are due for what? World Wars aren't predictable and cyclical like ice ages. In thousands of years of warfare we've had a whopping TWO wars of great enough scale to call them World Wars, and they were within 21ish years of each other 77+ years ago.

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True. However Europe has had a war roughly every 20-40 years for the past 1500 years. The only thing that made the world wars involve the "world" was entangling alliances and colonies seeking independence.

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the entangling alliances are always there now. Which economic or military superpower isn't interested in preserving its strength or market dominance? US? China? Uk? Germany? Russia? France?

No

Russia's GDP per capita is on par with South Korea and their military is 2 decades behind America and Western Europe. They are a has been looking desperately to cling to a semblance of relevance and are wholly incapable of fighting a drawn out global conflict in which they are opps d by multiple other powers. And no matter what anyone says nobody in the west is sending anyone to die on behalf of the Ukraine.

China is a house of cards, it's economy is built almost entirely on the backs of other economies and it's age/sex demographics make social collapse over the next two generations inevitable almost regardless of anything else. Any conflict that involves most or all of the western powers withdrawing economic interaction with them would cause their economic and political structure to collapse in a few months, and it would quickly devolve into a Revolution of the masses. The CCP leaders know this and is ant to avoid this at all costs. They will continue to use low key subversive tactics while trying to figure out a way to stave off societal collapse due to their social policies.

A true hot global conflict, if it occurs, will be kicked off by someone else doing something crazy like Iran aggressively going after Israel.

Spineless independent voters, corrupt Washington DC bureaucrats, opportunistic military leaders, greedy board rooms, etc. are responsible for this.

There will be pain for a long time.

kb2001 said:

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waitwhat? said:

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suburban cowboy said:

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I'm no historian, but we are due and it feels like things have aligned in a way that could lead to China, Russia and Iran teaming up against the West.

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We are due for what? World Wars aren't predictable and cyclical like ice ages. In thousands of years of warfare we've had a whopping TWO wars of great enough scale to call them World Wars, and they were within 21ish years of each other 77+ years ago.

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True. However Europe has had a war roughly every 20-40 years for the past 1500 years. The only thing that made the world wars involve the "world" was entangling alliances and colonies seeking independence.

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The difference now is that nearly all of the world's leading powers are unified on a single side in the broadest sense. 8 of the 10 most powerful militaries and 9 of the 10 most powerful economies would be aligned militarily in any such conflict. Perhaps more importantly in a military sense, this alignment spans the globe. China would be flanked by several very potent militaries in their own backyard.

China is a vast country with a huge military, but they'd be crushed militarily and economically by the combined force of the West, Japan, India and South Korea. Between the sheer force that could be brought to bear against them combined with all those nations ceasing trade with them, they'd have no chance. Their own population would revolt within months.

Time is going to tell. It looks like Russia is going roll right over Ukraine. If Putin gets the itchy finger and starts in on other border countries, maybe so.
Going to be interesting to see what China and North Korea start doing in the next few weeks.
Until then, as people complain about all this, I will tell them that I am not part of the 81 million.

Considering the Ags last won the natty in 1939, seems about right. Ags only win the big one around World Wars.

No. This is not the beginning of WW3. The hysteria is off the charts.

Kenneth_2003 said:

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You've got a case of maverick claiming jester dove below the hard deck to avoid the kill.

An errant stray by an over zealous Russian pilot that got caught up in the dog fight and didn't navigate would/ should be quick to disengage hostilities when contacted by neutral forces. If he bugs out, you let it go. If he draws blood you hope like hell cooler heads rule the day.

Let's not Gulf of Tonkin this mess. Let's be more like the Iranians when we accidentally shoot down aone of their civilian planes.

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These are all terrible, incorrect almost onion like satire! Either brilliant satire or …….well bless your heart.

Infection_Ag11 said:

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No

Russia's GDP per capita is on par with South Korea and their military is 2 decades behind America and Western Europe. They are a has been looking desperately to cling to a semblance of relevance and are wholly incapable of fighting a drawn out global conflict in which they are opps d by multiple other powers. And no matter what anyone says nobody in the west is sending anyone to die on behalf of the Ukraine.

China is a house of cards, it's economy is built almost entirely on the backs of other economies and it's age/sex demographics make social collapse over the next two generations inevitable almost regardless of anything else. Any conflict that involves most or all of the western powers withdrawing economic interaction with them would cause their economic and political structure to collapse in a few months, and it would quickly devolve into a Revolution of the masses. The CCP leaders know this and is ant to avoid this at all costs. They will continue to use low key subversive tactics while trying to figure out a way to stave off societal collapse due to their social policies.

A true hot global conflict, if it occurs, will be kicked off by someone else doing something crazy like Iran aggressively going after Israel.

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Now do us.

Marcus Brutus said:

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No. This is not the beginning of WW3. The hysteria is off the charts.

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If Putin raps on how close he brings his military to Poland, Hungary and the Baltic's. 70% of Putins Army is really close. Maybe he takes a few other small countries.

The more the NATO plays a weak hand the increased likely hood Putin will grab more…….but Ww3 is much more dependent if China moves on Taiwan.

I am not sure how anyone can look at the events of today and not be concerned.

Who will be next after Ukraine?

Funky Winkerbean said:

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Infection_Ag11 said:

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No

Russia's GDP per capita is on par with South Korea and their military is 2 decades behind America and Western Europe. They are a has been looking desperately to cling to a semblance of relevance and are wholly incapable of fighting a drawn out global conflict in which they are opps d by multiple other powers. And no matter what anyone says nobody in the west is sending anyone to die on behalf of the Ukraine.

China is a house of cards, it's economy is built almost entirely on the backs of other economies and it's age/sex demographics make social collapse over the next two generations inevitable almost regardless of anything else. Any conflict that involves most or all of the western powers withdrawing economic interaction with them would cause their economic and political structure to collapse in a few months, and it would quickly devolve into a Revolution of the masses. The CCP leaders know this and is ant to avoid this at all costs. They will continue to use low key subversive tactics while trying to figure out a way to stave off societal collapse due to their social policies.

A true hot global conflict, if it occurs, will be kicked off by someone else doing something crazy like Iran aggressively going after Israel.

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Now do us.

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We have the strongest economy and military in world. More importantly, our economy is not entirely sustained by the patronage of nations set to oppose us in a global conflict.

America without China means we pay more for things, and we have a shortage in various industries for 6-18 months while we shift production domestically and to other nations. China without America and our allies means hundreds of millions of their citizens literally starve to death.

I think you underestimate what would happen if the US dollar is no longer the worlds currency.

PearlJammin said:

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I think you underestimate what would happen if the US dollar is no longer the worlds currency.

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And ignored the fact that while our military is strong, our leadership is weak. Very weak.

PearlJammin said:

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I think you underestimate what would happen if the US dollar is no longer the worlds currency.

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One, there's no guarantee that occurs simply because war breaks out. Again, 9 of the 10 most powerful economies in the world would remain aligned in that scenario.

Second, the only scenarios in which large portions of Americans are starving to death would be endgame scenarios where the same is true for everyone else and this whole discussion is moot anyway.

Funky Winkerbean said:

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PearlJammin said:

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I think you underestimate what would happen if the US dollar is no longer the worlds currency.

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And ignored the fact that while our military is strong, our leadership is weak. Very weak.

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Everything I've discussed is independent of who our President is when these theoretical events transpire. They are things that will inevitably happen in those scenarios.

Unless you assume there is nothing that China or Russia could do that would lead to war and we'd somehow ignore anything just because Joe Biden is President, it's irrelevant to my posts in this thread. His weakness cant fix China's social and economic Achilles heals.

FCBlitz said:

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Marcus Brutus said:

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No. This is not the beginning of WW3. The hysteria is off the charts.

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If Putin raps on how close he brings his military to Poland, Hungary and the Baltic's. 70% of Putins Army is really close. Maybe he takes a few other small countries.

The more the NATO plays a weak hand the increased likely hood Putin will grab more…….but Ww3 is much more dependent if China moves on Taiwan.

I am not sure how anyone can look at the events of today and not be concerned.

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Putin doesn't have the military/infrastructure/wealth to win a world war. He knows that. He's definitely not going to try to invade a NATO country. It would be national suicide. If he does try to take more non-NATO territory, it will be incrementally. He'll take Ukraine and allow the dust to settle.

We have bigger enemies at home than we have abroad.