I have not heard a peep about or from either one this election cycle.
I live in Georgia and have not even seen hardly any ads for Stacey Abrams, nor do I hear any national news pimping her.
Seems to be the case in Texas as well with Beto.
I've seen a **** ton of Beta ads.will25u said:
Know how you know Beto O'Rourke and Stacy Abrams are not going to win?
I have not heard a peep about or from either one this election cycle.
I live in Georgia and have not even seen hardly any ads for Stacey Abrams, nor do I hear any national news pimping her.
Seems to be the case in Texas as well with Beto.
will25u said:
Know how you know Beto O'Rourke and Stacy Abrams are not going to win?
I have not heard a peep about or from either one this election cycle.
I live in Georgia and have not even seen hardly any ads for Stacey Abrams, nor do I hear any national news pimping her.
Seems to be the case in Texas as well with Beto.
That or they are paying relatives and friends to create TV ads but not buying the time to air them.Quote:
They both are probably putting that ad money in their pockets.
Nevada Senate:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 27, 2022
Laxalt (R) 50% (+4)
Cortez Masto (D-inc) 46%
Scott (L) 3%
.
Nevada Governor:
Lombardo (R) 51% (+6)
Sisolak (D-inc) 44%
Davis (L) 3%
.@trafalgar_group, 1,100 LV, 10/21-24https://t.co/1UAfkiLp7P
will25u said:Nevada Senate:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 27, 2022
Laxalt (R) 50% (+4)
Cortez Masto (D-inc) 46%
Scott (L) 3%
.
Nevada Governor:
Lombardo (R) 51% (+6)
Sisolak (D-inc) 44%
Davis (L) 3%
.@trafalgar_group, 1,100 LV, 10/21-24https://t.co/1UAfkiLp7P
Rockdoc said:
Will, I'll ask you because you seem privy to so much info. What's it going take to overcome the cheating that's sure to come (probably already started) in Pennsylvania for starters I guess what I'm asking is, is there an insurmountable lead they can't possibly overcome with fake ballots? I'm just starting here. I'm sure other states will come into play. Kinda getting worried because I hear nothing from the R's on this.
well start posting!!Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
I know I don't post much over here, for a lot of reasons, but my model has an average of 248 seats for R with the top end being 262 seats and the low end is 239
Terrible take. Lake is a Rockstar but she is running against a horrible candidate that won't even debate her and literally runs from people asking her questions. Masters is running a heavily underfunded race and may win against a very strong and extremely well funded incumbent in Kelly. Masters turned the race after the debate. Still Kelly is probably one of the strongest Dem candidates this cycle.LMCane said:because Kari Lake is great and Masters is a doofus?Texasaggie32 said:will25u said:
Probably a bad poll as it is sooooo far off.𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐏𝐎𝐋𝐋: Kari Lake holds 𝟏𝟏 𝐏𝐎𝐈𝐍𝐓 lead over Katie Hobbs in Arizona Governor Race
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 26, 2022
(R) Kari Lake 54% (+11)
(D) Katie Hobbs 43%
⦿ Insider Advantage
⦿ 10/11-17 | 550 LV | MoE ±4.2%https://t.co/qSlgEhoKFE pic.twitter.com/eoZv9yarm0
Don't get how she's up 11 but Masters is down 2 in the same poll.
LMCane said:because Kari Lake is great and Masters is a doofus?Texasaggie32 said:will25u said:
Probably a bad poll as it is sooooo far off.𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐏𝐎𝐋𝐋: Kari Lake holds 𝟏𝟏 𝐏𝐎𝐈𝐍𝐓 lead over Katie Hobbs in Arizona Governor Race
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 26, 2022
(R) Kari Lake 54% (+11)
(D) Katie Hobbs 43%
⦿ Insider Advantage
⦿ 10/11-17 | 550 LV | MoE ±4.2%https://t.co/qSlgEhoKFE pic.twitter.com/eoZv9yarm0
Don't get how she's up 11 but Masters is down 2 in the same poll.
Baris: “Blake Masters has taken the lead in AZ for 3 straight days and should win by 2.”@barnes_law “Oz will now run away with it. They never should have let Fetterman talk.”
— Other_Walls (@WallsOther) October 27, 2022
will25u said:.@CNalysis has updated projections for Wisconsin state legislative seats. Almost all projections favor Republicans.
— Dan Shafer (@DanRShafer) October 26, 2022
They are now giving Republicans a 49% chance of gaining a supermajority in the State Assembly. https://t.co/EL6GUpqQnvHere's my full preview of everything happening in the State Assembly. Republicans are favored to pick up three seats. There are now two (2) genuine toss-ups. They win those (and protect all others), and they get a supermajority. This is going to be close. https://t.co/qA8JMLiU5a
— Dan Shafer (@DanRShafer) October 26, 2022
aggie93 said:Terrible take. Lake is a Rockstar but she is running against a horrible candidate that won't even debate her and literally runs from people asking her questions. Masters is running a heavily underfunded race and may win against a very strong and extremely well funded incumbent in Kelly. Masters turned the race after the debate. Still Kelly is probably one of the strongest Dem candidates this cycle.LMCane said:because Kari Lake is great and Masters is a doofus?Texasaggie32 said:will25u said:
Probably a bad poll as it is sooooo far off.𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐏𝐎𝐋𝐋: Kari Lake holds 𝟏𝟏 𝐏𝐎𝐈𝐍𝐓 lead over Katie Hobbs in Arizona Governor Race
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 26, 2022
(R) Kari Lake 54% (+11)
(D) Katie Hobbs 43%
⦿ Insider Advantage
⦿ 10/11-17 | 550 LV | MoE ±4.2%https://t.co/qSlgEhoKFE pic.twitter.com/eoZv9yarm0
Don't get how she's up 11 but Masters is down 2 in the same poll.
Walker is a weak candidate. Oz is a weak candidate. Yet they both have weak candidates they should beat.
New Hampshire Senate:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 28, 2022
Hassan (D-inc) 45%
Bolduc (R) 45%
Kauffman (L) 3%
.@coefficientpoll/@NewHampJournal, 1,098 LV, 10/25-26https://t.co/3HsTe4ZNKs
MAIL IN NEVADA@RalstonReports
— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) October 28, 2022
I've decided to take a deep dive (while we wait for the NV SOS to post statewide numbers) and get data from Clark (LV) and Washoe (Reno) Counties - those two counties are 88% of the state's registered voters. Here's what I'm finding:
(1/3)
BOTTOM LINE: 218K, 43-34% Dem. Which seems like a formidable Democratic "wall" BUT in 10/22/2020, 359K voted early, and that vote was 46-32% D/R.
— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) October 28, 2022
In other words, from +14D to +9 now. And we don't yet have the 12% of the state which is heavily Republican.
(3/3)
NEW: @WinWithJMC - EARLY Voting Comparison in FL and NC at this time
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 28, 2022
⦿ FL 2020: 45D-34R (D+11)
⦿ FL 2022: 41R-41D (=)
✅ 11-POINT Swing Towards the GOP in Florida
.
⦿ NC 2020: 43D-28R (D+15)
⦿ NC 2022: 39D-31R (D+7)
✅ 8-POINT Swing Towards the GOP in North Carolina pic.twitter.com/VE8Eaws91S
Pennsylvania Governor:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 28, 2022
Shapiro (D) 62% (+24)
Mastriano (R) 38%
.@kurtjetta/@CenterStreetPAC (D), 1,053 LV, 10/24-26 pic.twitter.com/EnxKL4JyF5
🚨 New Pennsylvania Poll by Wick Insights (Post Debate Poll)
— Joel Weingart (@JoelWeingart_) October 28, 2022
GOVERNOR
Josh Shapiro (D): 49%
Doug Mastriano (R): 43%
SENATE
Mehmet Oz (R): 48%
John Fetterman (D): 46% https://t.co/uf9WzBIoRD
Shapiro will probably win, but not by that much. This is just like those polls we had in 2020 where Biden was up 15-30 points in some states where he ended up "winning" by less than 1%.will25u said:
Ouch... Mastriano is constantly polling low in PA. Don't know if he can pull it off...Pennsylvania Governor:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 28, 2022
Shapiro (D) 62% (+24)
Mastriano (R) 38%
.@kurtjetta/@CenterStreetPAC (D), 1,053 LV, 10/24-26 pic.twitter.com/EnxKL4JyF5
FLORIDA OFFICIAL EV NUMBERS
— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) October 28, 2022
In other words, what the FL SOS posts every AM :)
2,172,931
41.2% Rep, 39.8% Dem
In 2020, it was 4,173,923 and 45-34% Dem/Rep.
𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐏𝐎𝐋𝐋: Republicans hold 𝟳 𝗣𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗧 lead over Democrats on Congressional Ballot
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 28, 2022
Republicans 49% (+7)
Democrats 42%
⦿ @Rasmussen_Poll | 10/23-27
⦿ 2,500 LV | D35/R33/I32 | MOE ±3.1https://t.co/QZmsotgqzJ pic.twitter.com/cGpTeYy9TL
oh no said:FLORIDA OFFICIAL EV NUMBERS
— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) October 28, 2022
In other words, what the FL SOS posts every AM :)
2,172,931
41.2% Rep, 39.8% Dem
In 2020, it was 4,173,923 and 45-34% Dem/Rep.
I like these guys but they were also a bit too optimistic about Trump in 2020 as far as Arizona and PennsylvaniaTexasaggie32 said:Baris: “Blake Masters has taken the lead in AZ for 3 straight days and should win by 2.”@barnes_law “Oz will now run away with it. They never should have let Fetterman talk.”
— Other_Walls (@WallsOther) October 27, 2022
a lot pollsters didn't factor in the mail-in fraud two years ago. i don't know what the weighting should be, but I hope they've adjusted their modelsLMCane said:I like these guys but they were also a bit too optimistic about Trump in 2020 as far as Arizona and PennsylvaniaTexasaggie32 said:Baris: “Blake Masters has taken the lead in AZ for 3 straight days and should win by 2.”@barnes_law “Oz will now run away with it. They never should have let Fetterman talk.”
— Other_Walls (@WallsOther) October 27, 2022
they may be making the same exact mistake once again.