***** OFFICIAL Election Day 2022 Polling/Discussion *****

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will25u
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4:09p, 10/27/22
Know how you know Beto O'Rourke and Stacy Abrams are not going to win?

I have not heard a peep about or from either one this election cycle.

I live in Georgia and have not even seen hardly any ads for Stacey Abrams, nor do I hear any national news pimping her.

Seems to be the case in Texas as well with Beto.
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Rapier108
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In reply to will25u • 4:23p, 10/27/22
will25u said:
Know how you know Beto O'Rourke and Stacy Abrams are not going to win?

I have not heard a peep about or from either one this election cycle.

I live in Georgia and have not even seen hardly any ads for Stacey Abrams, nor do I hear any national news pimping her.

Seems to be the case in Texas as well with Beto.
I've seen a **** ton of Beta ads.

There are three which run all the damn time it seems

A woman who blame Greg Abbott for her daughter dying in Uvalde. She ends it with "that's why I'm voting for Beto" saying his name with a very heavy Spanish accent.

The next is a doctor who claims hospitals have to turn away millions of people because of Abbott, so he's voting for Beto who will "expand Medicaid which will "lower inflation and create 300,000 jobs"

The latest is the biggest pile if BS so far.

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Rockdoc
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In reply to will25u • 4:24p, 10/27/22
AG
will25u said:
Know how you know Beto O'Rourke and Stacy Abrams are not going to win?

I have not heard a peep about or from either one this election cycle.

I live in Georgia and have not even seen hardly any ads for Stacey Abrams, nor do I hear any national news pimping her.

Seems to be the case in Texas as well with Beto.

They both are probably putting that ad money in their pockets.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Rockdoc • 4:50p, 10/27/22
AG
Quote:
They both are probably putting that ad money in their pockets.
That or they are paying relatives and friends to create TV ads but not buying the time to air them.
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will25u
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4:53p, 10/27/22
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SwigAg11
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In reply to will25u • 5:02p, 10/27/22
AG
will25u said:

Trafalgar has been one of the more accurate polling groups and that looks like a good sample size of likely voters.
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Not a Bot
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5:51p, 10/27/22
AG
10/27 RCP model now has the estimated GOP gain in the House at +30.5.

Two more Dem seats have been moved into the "toss up" category from "lean Dem."
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to Not a Bot • 6:45p, 10/27/22
I know I don't post much over here, for a lot of reasons, but my model has an average of 248 seats for R with the top end being 262 seats and the low end is 239
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Rockdoc
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In reply to will25u • 7:23p, 10/27/22
AG
Will, I'll ask you because you seem privy to so much info. What's it going take to overcome the cheating that's sure to come (probably already started) in Pennsylvania for starters I guess what I'm asking is, is there an insurmountable lead they can't possibly overcome with fake ballots? I'm just starting here. I'm sure other states will come into play. Kinda getting worried because I hear nothing from the R's on this.
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will25u
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In reply to Rockdoc • 7:39p, 10/27/22
Rockdoc said:
Will, I'll ask you because you seem privy to so much info. What's it going take to overcome the cheating that's sure to come (probably already started) in Pennsylvania for starters I guess what I'm asking is, is there an insurmountable lead they can't possibly overcome with fake ballots? I'm just starting here. I'm sure other states will come into play. Kinda getting worried because I hear nothing from the R's on this.


Everyone needs to try and vote on election day if possible.

I don't know what it will take to get over the cheating if there is. It can't be close. I would say 15k+.

If it is close I could see it going downhill in the days after the election.
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LMCane
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In reply to Mostly Foggy Recollection • 7:42p, 10/27/22
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
I know I don't post much over here, for a lot of reasons, but my model has an average of 248 seats for R with the top end being 262 seats and the low end is 239
well start posting!!

we better have a live thread stream on election day reporting in on all the House races which may be flipping.
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to LMCane • 7:51p, 10/27/22
I take a similar approach to RCP with poll error to one side or the other.

I'm fairly confident that if you live in a purple or red state and your R rep is ahead or within 2-3 points of their challenger, they are close to a shoe in.

It gets trickier in dark blue states because those states tend to have state legislatures that are more even.
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Irish 2.0
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7:53p, 10/27/22
It may sound simplistic, but what I do is take the top 1 or 2 top and bottom extreme polls against the median and take them out. I'll run them without the extremes and to me you get a clearer idea.
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aggie93
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In reply to LMCane • 8:09p, 10/27/22
AG
LMCane said:
Texasaggie32 said:
will25u said:
Probably a bad poll as it is sooooo far off.



Don't get how she's up 11 but Masters is down 2 in the same poll.
because Kari Lake is great and Masters is a doofus?
Terrible take. Lake is a Rockstar but she is running against a horrible candidate that won't even debate her and literally runs from people asking her questions. Masters is running a heavily underfunded race and may win against a very strong and extremely well funded incumbent in Kelly. Masters turned the race after the debate. Still Kelly is probably one of the strongest Dem candidates this cycle.

Walker is a weak candidate. Oz is a weak candidate. Yet they both have weak candidates they should beat.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
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texagbeliever
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8:45p, 10/27/22
Cheating just became way more dangerous if Musk makes Twitter neutral. Without coverage of social media things could blow up fast.
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Texasaggie32
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In reply to LMCane • 9:46p, 10/27/22
LMCane said:
Texasaggie32 said:
will25u said:
Probably a bad poll as it is sooooo far off.



Don't get how she's up 11 but Masters is down 2 in the same poll.
because Kari Lake is great and Masters is a doofus?


I just don't think 15% of voters split their ticket.
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Texasaggie32
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10:38p, 10/27/22
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to will25u • 10:57p, 10/27/22
will25u said:



Hopefully they use their terms to make voter cheating as hard as possible. Milwaukee single handily cheated Biden you win there.

It needs to be fixed
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LMCane
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In reply to aggie93 • 12:53a, 10/28/22
aggie93 said:
LMCane said:
Texasaggie32 said:
will25u said:
Probably a bad poll as it is sooooo far off.



Don't get how she's up 11 but Masters is down 2 in the same poll.
because Kari Lake is great and Masters is a doofus?
Terrible take. Lake is a Rockstar but she is running against a horrible candidate that won't even debate her and literally runs from people asking her questions. Masters is running a heavily underfunded race and may win against a very strong and extremely well funded incumbent in Kelly. Masters turned the race after the debate. Still Kelly is probably one of the strongest Dem candidates this cycle.

Walker is a weak candidate. Oz is a weak candidate. Yet they both have weak candidates they should beat.

really like how you state this: "Masters is running a heavily underfunded race"

but then claim I am totally off base when I slag on Masters.

Uh, maybe it's an underfunded race because no one likes him around the country?

Unlike Kari Lake. Or Ron DeSantis. Or Mayra Flores.

Lee Zeldin is kicking butt in NEW YORK when there are literally TWICE AS MANY DEMOCRATS registered in that state as republicans! Don Bolduc is nearly tied in NH. A GOP candidate may win the governor in OREGON right now.

but Masters is likely to lose in a 50/50 state.

Maybe you should rethink what makes a "good" candidate.
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Texasaggie32
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5:40a, 10/28/22


Not sure how good of a poll it is, but NH should be close
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will25u
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7:14a, 10/28/22

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will25u
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7:30a, 10/28/22
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will25u
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7:49a, 10/28/22
Ouch... Mastriano is constantly polling low in PA. Don't know if he can pull it off...

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will25u
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8:16a, 10/28/22
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Rapier108
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In reply to will25u • 8:20a, 10/28/22
will25u said:
Ouch... Mastriano is constantly polling low in PA. Don't know if he can pull it off...

Shapiro will probably win, but not by that much. This is just like those polls we had in 2020 where Biden was up 15-30 points in some states where he ended up "winning" by less than 1%.
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FTAG 2000
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8:34a, 10/28/22
AG
seeing PA go blue for governor is frustrating. so many old blue dogs up there just go pull the D lever without thinking because their parents were / are Dems.
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oh no
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8:36a, 10/28/22
AG
why are Pennsylvanians ******ed?
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oh no
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8:44a, 10/28/22
AG
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Not a Bot
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In reply to will25u • 8:53a, 10/28/22
AG
This poll is run by a Dem PAC.
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Captn_Ag05
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9:40a, 10/28/22
AG
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LMCane
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9:48a, 10/28/22
With less than two weeks before the election, the RNC revealed the committee was able to raise $296.8 million cycle-to-date,

which allowed "long-term investments" across all 50 state and six territory parties meaning Washington, DC, Puerto Rico, American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands

to "ensure our entire party apparatus has the tools and resources to grow and elect Republican candidates."
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LMCane
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In reply to oh no • 9:50a, 10/28/22
oh no said:

WOW!! that's insane.

this is going to be a beat down across the board in Florida. there literally will not be a single democrat to win ANY statewide office in the second largest state in the Union.

this is likely going to be the most Republican office holders in Florida state history.
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LMCane
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In reply to Texasaggie32 • 10:07a, 10/28/22
Texasaggie32 said:
I like these guys but they were also a bit too optimistic about Trump in 2020 as far as Arizona and Pennsylvania

they may be making the same exact mistake once again.
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tremble
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In reply to will25u • 10:08a, 10/28/22
AG
CenterStreetPAC is a scam affiliated with the Bulwark Bull**** Artists.
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oh no
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In reply to LMCane • 10:13a, 10/28/22
AG
LMCane said:
Texasaggie32 said:
I like these guys but they were also a bit too optimistic about Trump in 2020 as far as Arizona and Pennsylvania

they may be making the same exact mistake once again.
a lot pollsters didn't factor in the mail-in fraud two years ago. i don't know what the weighting should be, but I hope they've adjusted their models
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