China Coronavirus Outbreak Spreads; Hundreds Infected As Human-To-Human Transmission

3,343,775 Views | 21818 Replies | Last: 6 days ago by Krombopulos Michael
cone
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AG
the interesting part of the thread was the discussion on super spreading and it's impact on infectiousness

but please continue with your train of thought
TelcoAg
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Hey bustup. New handle, huh?
tysker
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aginlakeway said:

Mr.Infectious said:






University Park the highest. People back from Italy?
I would not be surprised. Also people exposed while skiing in Colorado or visiting NYC.
Or they're just wealthy and have access to testing the rest of us don't.
tysker
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YouBet said:

While I live in Dallas (a liberal city), this whole event has absolutely convinced me beyond doubt that I will never live in a blue state, large city and living in a large city period is not in my long term interests.

Blue governments are proving to the world their desire and plan for an Orwellian society. They are/were just waiting for the right event or crisis to enact it for the "greater good".

My next home will be out and away.
Not to pour gas on your fire but just wait until the Dallas city council needs to raise taxes due to unfunded pension liabilities that have now gotten even larger due to the market downturn.
Nuclear Scramjet
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https://deadline.com/2020/03/china-orders-re-closing-all-cinemas-nationwide-1202894103/

Quote:

EXCLUSIVE: China is re-shuttering all of its cinemas nationwide as it continues to battle coronavirus, according to Deadline sources.

The country's national film bureau has contacted all exhibitors today saying that venues must be closed again, with no immediate timeframe for re-opening. The news has begun to spread across popular social media service Weibo.

This weekend, a ray of light seemed to be shining from the Middle Kingdom when more than 500 cinemas re-opened their doors to the public after being closed since late January (though largely no one turned up). That represented only 4.5% of the country's cinema real estate, and didn't include its major chains, but there was optimism that this was just the first wave and that others would follow suit in the coming weeks into April.


Ah yes, no new cases in China.

Anyone who believes the Chinese numbers is an idiot. This is all about saving face.
samurai_science
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There will be new cases for all of eternity.
samurai_science
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AgLiving06 said:

YouBet said:

While I live in Dallas (a liberal city), this whole event has absolutely convinced me beyond doubt that I will never live in a blue state, large city and living in a large city period is not in my long term interests.

Blue governments are proving to the world their desire and plan for an Orwellian society. They are/were just waiting for the right event or crisis to enact it for the "greater good".

My next home will be out and away.

Yeah. Dallas should really be ashamed of themselves. To use the covidactnow data as gospel is borderline criminal.

Sure hope yall remember it when it comes to voting.
Bad data is still data.
Tabasco
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AgLiving06 said:

Fitch said:

I'm a little hesitant to re-post this given some prior COVID-19 website models being developed by silicon valley tech guys w/o significant virology experience. The chart that was circulated when Dallas County went under the SIP is a direct product from that team.

This one seems more accredited, but, as with any forecast model, take it with a grain of salt: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

This model seems pretty reasonable.

The potential for 81,000 deaths line up pretty well with the newer estimates being put out.

The one variable I'm not as confident in is they have us effectively in a full decline on the death rate from here on out.

Given how big the US is, I'm less confident that we won't have a flair up somewhere. On the flip side, we are hitting 90 degrees in Houston today and I guess we'll see if that plays a role as well.
70's for the next 10 days in Houston. I looked earlier today.
YouBet
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tysker said:

YouBet said:

While I live in Dallas (a liberal city), this whole event has absolutely convinced me beyond doubt that I will never live in a blue state, large city and living in a large city period is not in my long term interests.

Blue governments are proving to the world their desire and plan for an Orwellian society. They are/were just waiting for the right event or crisis to enact it for the "greater good".

My next home will be out and away.
Not to pour gas on your fire but just wait until the Dallas city council needs to raise taxes due to unfunded pension liabilities that have now gotten even larger due to the market downturn.
Oh, I know. Hell, we voted ourselves 3 different tax raises last year "for the children". So, this is definitely coming.
The Fall Guy
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Just under 1,000 dead Italy yesterday!!
BoydCrowder13
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The Fall Guy said:

Just under 1,000 dead Italy yesterday!!
Darn. They had really leveled off the past few days.
Keegan99
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The important tally from Italy is new infections, not deaths.

Deaths are far more random. New infections are a better indicator of the effect of suppression policies. And on that front, it seems Italy has peaked.

(I'd also like to see deaths and infected for Italy broken down geographically, since Lombardy was where it first detonated.)
BoydCrowder13
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FbgTxAg said:

BoydCrowder13 said:

US has gone from 109 to 780 deaths in exactly one week. Need that trend to break.


TOTAL Deaths. TOTAL.

Do you think we do 7x700 this week? 4,900 deaths IN ADDITION to the 700 we start with?? This week??

Or just another 700?

My money is on 700 more TOTAL. Making it 1400ish total. My original guess was 1200 on March 30.

Already at 1,481 deaths 2 1/2 days later. We will see where we are on 3/31. I think we will be over 3,000 deaths.
Goose83
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So much for the "Boomer Remover":

https://www.foxnews.com/health/perfectly-healthy-texas-dad-with-coronavirus-dies

https://www.france24.com/en/20200327-16-year-old-girl-becomes-france-s-youngest-coronavirus-victim

https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/teen-football-player-jaquan-anderson-dead-from-coronavirus-in-new-orleans/

The constant prattling on and on that only old people over 60 were going to die is going to come back and bite a lot of people in the backside (will be interesting to see how the numbers will shake out over the next couple of weeks amongst those who ignored warnings and partied over spring break).
Rapier108
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Goose61 said:

So much for the "Boomer Remover":

https://www.foxnews.com/health/perfectly-healthy-texas-dad-with-coronavirus-dies

https://www.france24.com/en/20200327-16-year-old-girl-becomes-france-s-youngest-coronavirus-victim

https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/teen-football-player-jaquan-anderson-dead-from-coronavirus-in-new-orleans/

The constant prattling on and on that only old people over 60 were going to die is going to come back and bite a lot of people in the backside (will be interesting to see how the numbers will shake out over the next couple of weeks amongst those who ignored warnings and partied over spring break).
No one here ever said that only people over 60 will die from it.

People over 60, and those with underlying health issues, are the most at risk.

This virus can infect anyone, and can kill anyone. No one has ever said differently.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Goose83
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Rapier108 said:

Goose61 said:

So much for the "Boomer Remover":

https://www.foxnews.com/health/perfectly-healthy-texas-dad-with-coronavirus-dies

https://www.france24.com/en/20200327-16-year-old-girl-becomes-france-s-youngest-coronavirus-victim

https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/teen-football-player-jaquan-anderson-dead-from-coronavirus-in-new-orleans/

The constant prattling on and on that only old people over 60 were going to die is going to come back and bite a lot of people in the backside (will be interesting to see how the numbers will shake out over the next couple of weeks amongst those who ignored warnings and partied over spring break).
No one here ever said that only people over 60 will die from it.

People over 60, and those with underlying health issues, are the most at risk.

This virus can infect anyone, and can kill anyone. No one has ever said differently.
Funny, because people here on Forum 16 have suggested that all we have to do is just lock up all the olds for the next couple of months, and everyone else will be just fine.

Yes, what you said is true, but too many people are hearing what they want to hear, and therein lies the problem.
Rapier108
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Goose61 said:

Rapier108 said:

Goose61 said:

So much for the "Boomer Remover":

https://www.foxnews.com/health/perfectly-healthy-texas-dad-with-coronavirus-dies

https://www.france24.com/en/20200327-16-year-old-girl-becomes-france-s-youngest-coronavirus-victim

https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/teen-football-player-jaquan-anderson-dead-from-coronavirus-in-new-orleans/

The constant prattling on and on that only old people over 60 were going to die is going to come back and bite a lot of people in the backside (will be interesting to see how the numbers will shake out over the next couple of weeks amongst those who ignored warnings and partied over spring break).
No one here ever said that only people over 60 will die from it.

People over 60, and those with underlying health issues, are the most at risk.

This virus can infect anyone, and can kill anyone. No one has ever said differently.
Funny, because people here on Forum 16 have suggested that all we have to do is just lock up all the olds for the next couple of months, and everyone else will be just fine.

Yes, what you said is true, but too many people are hearing what they want to hear, and therein lies the problem.
If everyone let's say 50 and up was isolated for 30-60 days with zero outside contacts, it would reduce the number of serious/critical cases by a large number.

Obviously we are not going to do full China and barricade people in their homes, but the vast majority of deaths will be older people, which the media is no longer really talking about. Someone under 50, and especially under 30 dies, it is now front page news.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Nuclear Scramjet
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/stacks-of-urns-in-wuhan-prompt-new-questions-of-virus-s-toll

More evidence of China's garbage numbers and their lying.

Quote:

The long lines and stacks of ash urns greeting family members of the dead at funeral homes in Wuhan are spurring questions about the true scale of coronavirus casualties at the epicenter of the outbreak, renewing pressure on a Chinese government struggling to control its containment narrative.

The families of those who succumbed to the virus in the central Chinese city, where the disease first emerged in December, were allowed to pick up their cremated ashes at eight local funeral homes starting this week. As they did, photos circulated on Chinese social media of thousands of urns being ferried in.

Outside one funeral home, trucks shipped in about 2,500 urns on both Wednesday and Thursday, according to Chinese media outlet Caixin. Another picture published by Caixin showed 3,500 urns stacked on the ground inside. It's unclear how many of the urns had been filled.

People who answered the phone at six of the eight funeral homes in Wuhan said they either did not have data on how many urns were waiting to be collected, or were not authorized to disclose the numbers. Calls were not answered at the other two.

Some families said they had been forced to wait for several hours to pick up the ashes. The photos circulated as mass deaths from the virus spiked in cities across the west, including Milan, Madrid and New York, where hospitals were erecting tents to handle the overflow as global infections soar past 500,000, with 24,000 dead.
cone
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AG
here are the NYC stats if you want to check those

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-main.page

11200 18-44 yo cases

16 deaths

5000 cases 65+ yo

272 deaths


40x more likely to die in the older cohort
cone
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it is also highly like that the 11200 18-44 cases is more underestimated than the case load for the older cohorts

as a generally rule, it seems the young cases are more mild and undetectable without mass testing surveillance

what i am hearing is that obesity is not great vs. this f'ed disease

older and fit might be better than younger and overweight
PJYoung
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Keegan99 said:

The important tally from Italy is new infections, not deaths.

Deaths are far more random. New infections are a better indicator of the effect of suppression policies. And on that front, it seems Italy has peaked.

(I'd also like to see deaths and infected for Italy broken down geographically, since Lombardy was where it first detonated.)







https://www.statista.com/statistics/1099389/coronavirus-deaths-by-region-in-italy/


PJYoung
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Based on Italy, I wouldn't be surprised to see the United States with at least a month long peak of new infections. I don't think it's just going to be a week or so like Italy.
AgsMyDude
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Goose61 said:

Rapier108 said:

Goose61 said:

So much for the "Boomer Remover":

https://www.foxnews.com/health/perfectly-healthy-texas-dad-with-coronavirus-dies

https://www.france24.com/en/20200327-16-year-old-girl-becomes-france-s-youngest-coronavirus-victim

https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/teen-football-player-jaquan-anderson-dead-from-coronavirus-in-new-orleans/

The constant prattling on and on that only old people over 60 were going to die is going to come back and bite a lot of people in the backside (will be interesting to see how the numbers will shake out over the next couple of weeks amongst those who ignored warnings and partied over spring break).
No one here ever said that only people over 60 will die from it.

People over 60, and those with underlying health issues, are the most at risk.

This virus can infect anyone, and can kill anyone. No one has ever said differently.
Funny, because people here on Forum 16 have suggested that all we have to do is just lock up all the olds for the next couple of months, and everyone else will be just fine.

Yes, what you said is true, but too many people are hearing what they want to hear, and therein lies the problem.


Their goalposts are on wheels again.
Keegan99
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We have time-series data for deaths and infections for the country.

Is the time-series data for deaths and infections by region available?

In other words? Has Lombardy peaked but are others on the rise? Or have they all peaked? Was Lombardy the "canary in the coal mine" that got other regions to suppress earlier and before things got out of hand?
TelcoAg
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https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bolletino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_26-marzo-2020_appendix.pdf

Quote:


The data collected is in a continuous phase of consolidation and, as foreseeable in an emergency, some information they are incomplete. In particular, it should be noted, especially in the Regions in which a sustained local transmission of the virus, the possibility of a delay of a few days between the time of the execution of the buffer for diagnosis and reporting on the dedicated platform. Graphs, tables and maps are automatically generated and may be subject to small graphic defects that do not impact on the accuracy of the data presented. The maps show cases by municipality of diagnosis and province when these coincide with the Region / PPAA of diagnosis.
Looks like it's coming down all over, but we'll probably know way more on Monday
Agnzona
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Rapier108 said:

Goose61 said:

So much for the "Boomer Remover":

https://www.foxnews.com/health/perfectly-healthy-texas-dad-with-coronavirus-dies

https://www.france24.com/en/20200327-16-year-old-girl-becomes-france-s-youngest-coronavirus-victim

https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/teen-football-player-jaquan-anderson-dead-from-coronavirus-in-new-orleans/

The constant prattling on and on that only old people over 60 were going to die is going to come back and bite a lot of people in the backside (will be interesting to see how the numbers will shake out over the next couple of weeks amongst those who ignored warnings and partied over spring break).
No one here ever said that only people over 60 will die from it.

People over 60, and those with underlying health issues, are the most at risk.

This virus can infect anyone, and can kill anyone. No one has ever said differently.


You mean just like the flu?
CDub06
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AgsMyDude said:

Goose61 said:

Rapier108 said:

Goose61 said:

So much for the "Boomer Remover":

https://www.foxnews.com/health/perfectly-healthy-texas-dad-with-coronavirus-dies

https://www.france24.com/en/20200327-16-year-old-girl-becomes-france-s-youngest-coronavirus-victim

https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/teen-football-player-jaquan-anderson-dead-from-coronavirus-in-new-orleans/

The constant prattling on and on that only old people over 60 were going to die is going to come back and bite a lot of people in the backside (will be interesting to see how the numbers will shake out over the next couple of weeks amongst those who ignored warnings and partied over spring break).
No one here ever said that only peopple over 60 will die from it.

People over 60, and those with underlying health issues, are the most at risk.

This virus can infect anyone, and can kill anyone. No one has ever said differently.
Funny, because people here on Forum 16 have suggested that all we have to do is just lock up all the olds for the next couple of months, and everyone else will be just fine.

Yes, what you said is true, but too many people are hearing what they want to hear, and therein lies the problem.


Their goalposts are on wheels again.


When people say things like this, who exactly is "they"? And what on earth do you think their goals are??
mpl35
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Agnzona said:

Rapier108 said:

Goose61 said:

So much for the "Boomer Remover":

https://www.foxnews.com/health/perfectly-healthy-texas-dad-with-coronavirus-dies

https://www.france24.com/en/20200327-16-year-old-girl-becomes-france-s-youngest-coronavirus-victim

https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/teen-football-player-jaquan-anderson-dead-from-coronavirus-in-new-orleans/

The constant prattling on and on that only old people over 60 were going to die is going to come back and bite a lot of people in the backside (will be interesting to see how the numbers will shake out over the next couple of weeks amongst those who ignored warnings and partied over spring break).
No one here ever said that only people over 60 will die from it.

People over 60, and those with underlying health issues, are the most at risk.

This virus can infect anyone, and can kill anyone. No one has ever said differently.


You mean just like the flu?


Except the flue is particularly dangerous to little kids, toddlers, and babies. This doesn't appear to be. So kid of just not like the flu.
Rapier108
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Agnzona said:

Rapier108 said:

Goose61 said:

So much for the "Boomer Remover":

https://www.foxnews.com/health/perfectly-healthy-texas-dad-with-coronavirus-dies

https://www.france24.com/en/20200327-16-year-old-girl-becomes-france-s-youngest-coronavirus-victim

https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/teen-football-player-jaquan-anderson-dead-from-coronavirus-in-new-orleans/

The constant prattling on and on that only old people over 60 were going to die is going to come back and bite a lot of people in the backside (will be interesting to see how the numbers will shake out over the next couple of weeks amongst those who ignored warnings and partied over spring break).
No one here ever said that only people over 60 will die from it.

People over 60, and those with underlying health issues, are the most at risk.

This virus can infect anyone, and can kill anyone. No one has ever said differently.


You mean just like the flu?
If you mean that it can infect anyone, and potentially be serious to lethal to anyone, then yes, in that aspect it is like the flu.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Mordred
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AG
BoydCrowder13 said:

FbgTxAg said:

BoydCrowder13 said:

US has gone from 109 to 780 deaths in exactly one week. Need that trend to break.


TOTAL Deaths. TOTAL.

Do you think we do 7x700 this week? 4,900 deaths IN ADDITION to the 700 we start with?? This week??

Or just another 700?

My money is on 700 more TOTAL. Making it 1400ish total. My original guess was 1200 on March 30.

Already at 1,481 deaths 2 1/2 days later. We will see where we are on 3/31. I think we will be over 3,000 deaths.
But he had such a good feeling! Also, total now 1567. We should break 300 total today.
hbtheduce
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AG
Goose61 said:

Rapier108 said:

Goose61 said:

So much for the "Boomer Remover":

https://www.foxnews.com/health/perfectly-healthy-texas-dad-with-coronavirus-dies

https://www.france24.com/en/20200327-16-year-old-girl-becomes-france-s-youngest-coronavirus-victim

https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/teen-football-player-jaquan-anderson-dead-from-coronavirus-in-new-orleans/

The constant prattling on and on that only old people over 60 were going to die is going to come back and bite a lot of people in the backside (will be interesting to see how the numbers will shake out over the next couple of weeks amongst those who ignored warnings and partied over spring break).
No one here ever said that only people over 60 will die from it.

People over 60, and those with underlying health issues, are the most at risk.

This virus can infect anyone, and can kill anyone. No one has ever said differently.
Funny, because people here on Forum 16 have suggested that all we have to do is just lock up all the olds for the next couple of months, and everyone else will be just fine.

Yes, what you said is true, but too many people are hearing what they want to hear, and therein lies the problem.

The 99%+ young people will be fine. Fear mongering will only cause hysteria and lead people with very little risk of serious issues to flood the hospitals.

Stop obfuscating the arguments on here.

AgFan2015
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YouBet
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AG
Mr.Infectious said:


Where is this?
aggiepanic95
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AG
YouBet said:

Mr.Infectious said:


Where is this?
Dallas...it's been a crazy day.
YouBet
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AG
aggiepanic95 said:

YouBet said:

Mr.Infectious said:


Where is this?
Dallas...it's been a crazy day.
Sh^t. I might need to relocate pronto, but wife needs to watch latest Top Chef first.

Will let you know if we die Pompei style!
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