this is why they need to close schools and level with people about how dire this is becoming

we are a month or two behind on diagnostics

if you don't shut things down now, April is going to be terrible

VaultingChemist said:

---

Rapier108 said:

---

coastsrs said:

---

VaultingChemist said:

---

Irish_Man said:

---

I was being semi-serious

Was kind of hoping there wouldn't be this kind of news.

---

The state of Washington is probably just three weeks behind Italy.

---

These are the posts the bother me. We've been two weeks behind people for weeks now and now we're three weeks behind but have like what? 30 dead in the USA? This thing started in China and we didn't really restrict air travel from China til late in the game.

Sure I'll admit it's a serious thing because the mass cancellations due to the over cautious nature of businesses wanting to avoid lawsuits and bad pr (risk mgmt), but we don't reach Italy's scenario ever in my opinion.

---

It really does seem that some people either are 100% negative all the time.

And take out the nursing homes in the Seattle area, and the death toll is around 5 or 6.

---

Explain why my statement is incorrect. Cases in Italy versus cases in Washington. I will admit it if I am wrong, and I sincerely do hope I am wrong.

---

Your statement cannot be proven true or false.

My comment is that some people only make the worst possible predictions, or find the worst thing on social media to post here, since this thread started.

Remember the Soviet bioweapon, 100% kill rate, 4-5 billion deaths, etc. type comments early on? None of that was true, but people kept saying it and stood by it when called out for it. You had someone claim that the A&M student back in January had the virus, and they were keeping it secret for various reasons. The guy ended up not having it.

Everyone pulling the throttles back a little from maximum would do a lot of good, but each day we get a new member showing up who is worse than the last. They come here only to post that the world is about to come to an end and we must go full bunker to save it.

Bo Darville said:

---

That's what I don't understand. If the closings aren't staggered and occur only in the next few weeks whats the point?

---

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-cases-quarantine-cancellation


It's epidemiology 101 - everything we are doing now it an attempt to flatten this curve and move cases out to wider period of time so hospitals don't get over run like they are in Iran and Italy.

Part of Italy's death rate problem is that they're just not treating anybody above 65 OR with lots of comorbidities. (Info not from 4chan, from actual people over there).

They're literally just letting these people die and these are the ones that have a high mortality with treatment.

The mystery continues why young children are resistant and almost always survive.

Getting to the bottom of why may be the key to developing a vaccine.

WHY KIDS?

which is what was happening in Wuhan as well

people will be triaged

unless you slow down the outbreak considerably

i'm pretty worried you're going to see a similar outbreak on one of the coasts before we get into April

AgStuckinLBK said:

---

Part of Italy's death rate problem is that they're just not treating anybody above 65 OR with lots of comorbidities. (Info not from 4chan, from actual people over there).

They're literally just letting these people die and these are the ones that have a high mortality with treatment.

---

Found this live stream tracker elsewhere. If nothing else, it sure is pretty.

PJYoung said:

---

Bo Darville said:

---

That's what I don't understand. If the closings aren't staggered and occur only in the next few weeks whats the point?

---

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-cases-quarantine-cancellation


It's epidemiology 101 - everything we are doing now it an attempt to flatten this curve and move cases out to wider period of time so hospitals don't get over run like they are in Iran and Italy.

---

I get that. But if we are all closing at the same time and for the same duration then I think we are shifting the curve rightward rather than flattening it.

Bo Darville said:

---

PJYoung said:

---

Bo Darville said:

---

That's what I don't understand. If the closings aren't staggered and occur only in the next few weeks whats the point?

---

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-cases-quarantine-cancellation


It's epidemiology 101 - everything we are doing now it an attempt to flatten this curve and move cases out to wider period of time so hospitals don't get over run like they are in Iran and Italy.

---

I get that. But if we are all closing at the same time and for the same duration then I think we are shifting the curve rightward rather than flattening it.

---

?

The whole point of closing is that you stop the spread and x% of people who get it and would have spread it are instead able to be identified and properly quarantined.

KorbinDallas said:

---

Mr.Infectious said:

---

---

Wrong,

It's nature's punishment for how China treats animals, like wet markets. Too bad it's punishing the whole world

---

Wow. Just when I thought this mega-thread couldn't get any more inane; someone surprises me.

Bo Darville said:

---

Pumpkinhead said:

---

Live in Panama (Central America) in tropical environment/warm humid weather down here.

Got first confirmed coronavirus case yesterday. Now today, the number of confirmed corona virus cases is increased to 8 with 1 death. 66 people currently under observation.

Suspended all national events and some schools have been suspended until April. Universities still open but we will see over next week if it gets a major foothold here and they have to crack down further on activities.

---

Someone needs to explain to those 8 people that it's all liberal media hype and that Texags said warm weather would prevent it.

---

Somebody needs to find where anybody said warm weather would PREVENT it. The fact remains that these types of viruses do not proliferate as well in warm climates and during warm weather.

AgStuckinLBK said:

---

Part of Italy's death rate problem is that they're just not treating anybody above 65 OR with lots of comorbidities. (Info not from 4chan, from actual people over there).

They're literally just letting these people die and these are the ones that have a high mortality with treatment.

---

They're not doing that for funsies, they're doing that because of capacity constraints. Cautionary tale.

Proposition Joe said:

---

Bo Darville said:

---

PJYoung said:

---

Bo Darville said:

---

That's what I don't understand. If the closings aren't staggered and occur only in the next few weeks whats the point?

---

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-cases-quarantine-cancellation


It's epidemiology 101 - everything we are doing now it an attempt to flatten this curve and move cases out to wider period of time so hospitals don't get over run like they are in Iran and Italy.

---

I get that. But if we are all closing at the same time and for the same duration then I think we are shifting the curve rightward rather than flattening it.

---

?

The whole point of closing is that you stop the spread and x% of people who get it and would have spread it are instead able to be identified and properly quarantined.

---

But unless you get most or all, it will still just pop back up a few weeks later and you're back at square one.

cone said:

---

this is why they need to close schools and level with people about how dire this is becoming

we are a month or two behind on diagnostics

if you don't shut things down now, April is going to be terrible

---

Yeah, let's enter into a depression. You probably don't drive your car for fear of getting into a wreck. You seriously need to accept that most of us will get this. It's okay.

Otherwise, go live in your bunker and leave the rest of us adults the hell alone. There is NOTHING we can do to stop this without some sort of halt of everything we do in the free world.

so Italy should have just let this play out?

accept the mass death event and move on

cone said:

---

this is why they need to close schools and level with people about how dire this is becoming

we are a month or two behind on diagnostics

if you don't shut things down now, April is going to be terrible

---

I question his motive and information. I know at least one Houston hospital system has their own testing kits now from CDC and is testing.

VaultingChemist said:

---

Irish_Man said:

---

I was being semi-serious

Was kind of hoping there wouldn't be this kind of news.

---

The state of Washington is probably just three weeks behind Italy.

---

We have seen different stages of acceptance and when ICUs start to fill up in the United States I think most of us will finally realize how serious Covid really is. Maybe there will be a miracle drug silver bullet that will limit deaths. There is talk of a readily available rheumatoid arthritis drug that is helping patients that were on their death beds recover quickly in China.

I understand the dismissal as 'it's not even as bad as the flu' based on raw numbers. It's simplistic thinking. It ignores seasonal flu already being seeded in the 10s of millions every fall around the world. This one is still just in it's baby stages which makes our current actions to deal with it all the more important.

cone said:

---

so Italy should have just let this play out?

accept the mass death event and move on

---

You seem to have all the answers. How should society respond to this huh?

Rip the fuggin bandaid off. I'm not afraid of death especially knowing my kids will be okay. Communistic measures are out of the question for me.

I'm actually on a plane right now.

time is everything. two months is a lifetime at the beginning of a pandemic. two weeks of lean times will buy you two months of clinical trials, unforeseen breakthroughs, diagnostic capabilities.

you hit the reset now and save April/May

74OA said:

---

The mystery continues why young children are resistant and almost always survive.

Getting to the bottom of why may be the key to developing a vaccine.

WHY KIDS?

---

My two cents, adults are conditioned to fear these types of things through politicians and social media. Kids could give two ****s, they are resilient. They haven't abused their bodies for years like adults have. Like many viruses this virus impacts you so other things kill you. Healthier you are the less likely chance this happens.

This virus is having more of a mental impact than physical on adults.

Just yesterday, the task force said that they have distributed 1M test, have another 1M ready to be shipped, and have 4M by the end of the week. I believer their information more that I believe some random tweetster. This coming from someone who doesn't particularly believer the government about anything.

I don't know that blanket school closures help. I think if I were in charge of this what I'd do (I mean, obviously what I'd do is consult with experts in infectious disease which I am not) would be some kind of targeted action.

The whole reason tracing contacts works isn't proactive, it's totally reactive. But what you're doing is lessening the impact.

I think proactive behavior in terms of mass quarantines or school closures is probably counter productive. You trade one bad (disease spread) for another (economic and worker disruption). Lots of healthcare workers have kids. Closing schools makes a ripple effect in a lot of ways, and it may not prevent even a single spread.

To me, you trace aggressively and set trigger thresholds. If you get 1 case, that person quarantines along with immediate contacts. If you get 5? 10? I don't know, 1%? of a school you close it. Not because you are reducing the final tally, you're just trying to drag it out.

What China did "worked" but it's clearly not sustainable. So what happens when they open it back up? I don't think ripping the bandaid off and having COVID19 parties is a good idea! But I also don't think it's possible to actually stop it at this point.

The proactive stuff we should be doing is hygiene and social distancing. Those are unmitigated goods.

japantiger said:

---

KorbinDallas said:

---

Mr.Infectious said:

---

---

Wrong,

It's nature's punishment for how China treats animals, like wet markets. Too bad it's punishing the whole world

---

Wow. Just when I thought this mega-thread couldn't get any more inane; someone surprises me.

---

my answers all come from the experts

we're hurtlin into a crisis. every day you waste not drilling down on self-quarantine, strict social distancing, etc. you'll pay for three times over on the backend recovering from a mass death event (killing morale) and the required draconian quarantine

meanwhile, a large portion of your HC apparatus got exhausted and stricken in the mass death event

what's better for the American economy? closing schools now or cordoning off the pacific northwest?

Sid said:

---

cone said:

---

this is why they need to close schools and level with people about how dire this is becoming

we are a month or two behind on diagnostics

if you don't shut things down now, April is going to be terrible

---

I question his motive and information. I know at least one Houston hospital system has their own testing kits now from CDC and is testing.

---

No Ag tag. Spreading alarmist lies.

People need to start flagging theses posts/posters.

riverrataggie said:

---

74OA said:

---

The mystery continues why young children are resistant and almost always survive.

Getting to the bottom of why may be the key to developing a vaccine.

WHY KIDS?

---

My two cents, adults are conditioned to fear these types of things through politicians and social media. Kids could give two ****s, they are resilient. They haven't abused their bodies for years like adults have. Like many viruses this virus impacts you so other things kill you. Healthier you are the less likely chance this happens.

This virus is having more of a mental impact than physical on adults.

---

Coronaviruses infect and kill both elderly and children roughly equally. Something is different with the COVID-19 variant and it's hugely important to find out what that is.

i don't have an ag tag?

Whiskey Jacket said:

---

Just yesterday, the task force said that they have distributed 1M test, have another 1M ready to be shipped, and have 4M by the end of the week. I believer their information more that I believe some random tweetster. This coming from someone who doesn't particularly believer the government about anything.

---

As you should. He is a political shill who was heavily involved in the ACA and Obamacare.

If you look at his twitter feed, it's obvious that he has an agenda. He also flat out admits he isn't a scientist nor has any medical training. Not sure why his opinion is more important than others. If anything, his background makes me discount anything he says.

Not to mention, one of the first responses to his tweet is to blame Trump.

While I don't doubt there are bottlenecks with the testing process, I feel like the testing issue is becoming political. That means I take these stories about testing grinding to a halt with a grain of salt. Politicians and the media have a huge motivation to push this story with the hope it brings down Trump in November. It helps that the US medical system takes privacy and HIPAA laws seriously and won't divulge information about who is being tested or details about those who test positive.

This whole thing has become political. I think Trump and his administration have done just about as good of a job as could be done throughout the whole process.

cone said:

---

my answers all come from the experts

we're hurtlin into a crisis. every day you waste not drilling down on self-quarantine, strict social distancing, etc. you'll pay for three times over on the backend recovering from a mass death event (killing morale) and the required draconian quarantine

meanwhile, a large portion of your HC apparatus got exhausted and stricken in the mass death event

what's better for the American economy? closing schools now or cordoning off the pacific northwest?

---

You're acting like absolutely no one is taking this seriously and the government must step in in a draconian fashion. Social distancing, quarantines, testing....are already happening and have been happening....some since January. Major US companies are restricting travel and some localities have stopped large group events. Various events have delayed or cancelled (SXSW, Rice Business Plan Competition, some sporting events). My son's school has cancelled some events (like going to state competitions) and gone to video-only (like a presentation I watched on live-stream last night about college admissions process). The US is responding at the personal, corporate, local municipality, state, and federal levels. The world is not coming to an end.

Bo Darville said:

---

Proposition Joe said:

---

Bo Darville said:

---

PJYoung said:

---

Bo Darville said:

---

That's what I don't understand. If the closings aren't staggered and occur only in the next few weeks whats the point?

---

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-cases-quarantine-cancellation


It's epidemiology 101 - everything we are doing now it an attempt to flatten this curve and move cases out to wider period of time so hospitals don't get over run like they are in Iran and Italy.

---

I get that. But if we are all closing at the same time and for the same duration then I think we are shifting the curve rightward rather than flattening it.

---

?

The whole point of closing is that you stop the spread and x% of people who get it and would have spread it are instead able to be identified and properly quarantined.

---

But unless you get most or all, it will still just pop back up a few weeks later and you're back at square one.

---

I guess that would be true if these actions were 100% perfect and 100% contained all spread. We know that's not even close to the case. The virus will still spread, just at a theoretically slower rate for a while. The people who have gotten it during that time (again, theoretically) won't get it again and that will flatten the curve.

There is also hope that by pushing it out to summer it might buy time as well when the virus might have a harder time spreading.

cone said:

---

this is why they need to close schools and level with people about how dire this is becoming

we are a month or two behind on diagnostics

if you don't shut things down now, April is going to be terrible

---

Politico hit piece? Why yes, yes it is. Virginia for example, and surrounding states have adequate testing kits on hand.