China Coronavirus Outbreak Spreads; Hundreds Infected As Human-To-Human Transmission

3,234,460 Views | 21764 Replies | Last: 2 mo ago by Stat Monitor Repairman
Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno
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murphyag said:

Did Frito Lay and Pepsi give a reason for telling everyone to work from home? Has there been any employees there who have tested positive? I just keep thinking there is more to this than the public is hearing. I've never heard of large companies shutting down and telling everyone to work from home.


I work at a major, if we have one case on our campus there is a possibility of closing down the whole campus and wfh mandate. 5000 employees, multiple buildings in one campus location.

This is absolutely being talked about at every major responsible company right now.
VaultingChemist
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Quote:

Stanford School of Medicine faculty member tests positive for COVID-19


Stanford School of Medicine officials confirmed Friday night that one of its faculty members has tested positive for COVID-19. In a statement released to ABC7, school officials say the employee has not been in the work environment since experiencing symptoms. They say the school followed the CDC's recommended guidelines by notifying people who might have been exposed and requestion that they self-quarantine to prevent the possibility of spread. Officials say the clinic where the employee worked has been closed for cleaning and is expected to reopen on Monday.
Not so fast......
Quote:

Stanford canceling all in-person courses for remainder of winter quarter due to coronavirus concerns


Stanford University is canceling all in-person courses for the remainder of the winter quarter due to coronavirus concerns. The school's website states, those classes will not meet in person but will move to online formats. It also says that large-group events are being canceled or adjusted.
CashMcMog
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This is getting beyond silly. Just shut it all down for two weeks. Everything. We will survive. And life goes on. Virus stops. Otherwise, just accept this is the new virus that's part of human history. And roll the dice on probabilities.
VaultingChemist
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Even the FBI is not immune.
Stat Monitor Repairman
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Got'em!
VaultingChemist
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Cy_Tolliver said:

foleyt said:

Take it to another thread
You don't think this is related?

This virus is not going to do what liberals want. It's the flu.

This IS political. I don't get why conservatives bow to these games and don't fight back.

And if you want to show evidence it's more deadly than the common flu, please do ti.

How about this?
Anti-taxxer
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padreislandagfan said:

Real question.
I have been fighting a sinus infection since Monday.
I treated with OTC flu type meds with no improvement.
I called Teladoc Wednesday and started antibiotics and nasal spray with no improvement.
I now have a deep lung constant hacking cough and labored breathing. This has gotten worse than any sickness I have had.
How would a guy go about getting tested for corona?
I'm likely heading to urgent care tomorrow.
Before you ask, I am in Galveston County

TIA for your recommendations and inappropriate remarks.

Quest and LabCorp are supposed to start offering testing in the next few days, if they haven't already started.
Harrison Wells
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Cy_Tolliver said:

VaultingChemist said:

Cy_Tolliver said:

foleyt said:

Take it to another thread
You don't think this is related?

This virus is not going to do what liberals want. It's the flu.

This IS political. I don't get why conservatives bow to these games and don't fight back.

And if you want to show evidence it's more deadly than the common flu, please do ti.

Umm what are these stats? They arent reality. We had over 10,000 deaths from common flu this year. The Coronavirus deaths are barely a blip.

Look, Im not saying people won't die, and I'm sure idiots that just lap up the news will come on here when they happen. I'm saying this is basically the common flu, a disease that barely registered for most folks.

Oh and btw - the "death rate" is a false statistic at this point because they are not as successful at diagnosing the disease as common flu. So to say "OMG its's killing way more" is not proven nor is it even likely.

Again, sorry your disease lost, the dream of a disastrous disease that will kill millions so you can get rid of Trump isn't going to happen.


VaultingChemist
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The stats are from a study of 44,000 Covid-19 cases. If you don't believe the Chinese doctors that performed the research and wrote the study, you can research it yourself.

10,000 deaths from the flu......so? The coronavirus is just in the very early stages of exponential growth. Check back in 30 days.
Cy_Tolliver
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VaultingChemist said:

The stats are from a study of 44,000 Covid-19 cases. If you don't believe the Chinese doctors that performed the research and wrote the study, you can research it yourself.

10,000 deaths from the flu......so? The coronavirus is just in the very early stages of exponential growth. Check back in 30 days.
The death rate is barely greater than common flu, and that's despite that many people have not been successfully diagnosed because it isn't recognized.

It's amazing to me that people who never once posted that t0,000 people died from common flu are on here like this is the worst thing ever because the media told them what to think.
Zemira
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smango05 said:

padreislandagfan said:

Real question.
I have been fighting a sinus infection since Monday.
I treated with OTC flu type meds with no improvement.
I called Teladoc Wednesday and started antibiotics and nasal spray with no improvement.
I now have a deep lung constant hacking cough and labored breathing. This has gotten worse than any sickness I have had.
How would a guy go about getting tested for corona?
I'm likely heading to urgent care tomorrow.
Before you ask, I am in Galveston County

TIA for your recommendations and inappropriate remarks.

Quest and LabCorp are supposed to start offering testing in the next few days, if they haven't already started.
I would definitely check with your doctor and the lab. I went to the doctor and LabCorp yesterday. They had a rather lengthy notice posted. Included in the notice was that if you had an upper respiratory problem in the last 14 days to not enter and contact your doctor for different testing procedures. They also very specifically mentioned they did not have the test and weren't testing for COV-19. Basically if you are sick, stay away.
Cy_Tolliver
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VaultingChemist said:

The stats are from a study of 44,000 Covid-19 cases. If you don't believe the Chinese doctors that performed the research and wrote the study, you can research it yourself.

10,000 deaths from the flu......so? The coronavirus is just in the very early stages of exponential growth. Check back in 30 days.
That's the USA homey. USA. We won't have 10,000 deaths in the USA in 30 days.

This thing is basically the flu but a bit more communicable. Only the elderly or people with susceptible immunce systems are at serious risk. Panicking that your average person will get it and die isn't supported nor factual.
VaultingChemist
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Cy_Tolliver said:

VaultingChemist said:

The stats are from a study of 44,000 Covid-19 cases. If you don't believe the Chinese doctors that performed the research and wrote the study, you can research it yourself.

10,000 deaths from the flu......so? The coronavirus is just in the very early stages of exponential growth. Check back in 30 days.
That's the USA homey. USA. We won't have 10,000 deaths in the USA in 30 days.

This thing is basically the flu but a bit more communicable. Only the elderly or people with susceptible immunce systems are at serious risk. Panicking that your average person will get it and die isn't supported nor factual.
Here are two different scenarios.....

Quote:

Best likely scenario: a typical flu year
The best likely outcome is that COVID-19 is like a typical flu season:
  • 10% of the world gets infected
  • 0.05% of infected people die
  • Globally, about 400,000 people die
  • Most deaths occur among people over 65 and/or especially susceptible to respiratory infections
  • Social and economic impacts are fairly minor
Worst likely scenario: the 1918 flu pandemic
The worst likely scenario is that COVID-19 is roughly comparable to the 1918 flu pandemic:
  • 50% of the world gets infected
  • 2% of infected people die
  • Globally, about 80,000,000 people die
  • Most deaths occur among people over 40 and/or especially susceptible to respiratory infections
  • Children and young adults are likely to be much less severely affected
  • Substantial social impacts including extensive voluntary and government-mandated closures
  • Substantial economic impacts including a global recession
  • Catastrophic impact on travel, hospitality, and food service sectors
  • The acute phase of the pandemic lasts for 3 - 18 months
  • COVID-19 recurs annually, just like the flu and the common cold

Covid-19 will most likely be about halfway between the best and worst scenarios, which will be way worse than the flu, but not apocalyptic.

If not for our advances in medical science over the last 100 years, Covid-19 would most likely be deadlier than the 1918 Spanish Flu.
Zemira
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Oh also I mentioned I work at a smaller company. Working from home really isn't an option except like 15 of 250+? They ended up in a five hour meeting trying to hash out guidelines and contingency plans.

We are in food retail, so need people. Most of the notice is about advanced hand washing and cleaning for the stores. Not shaking hands. Covering your cough/sneeze with not your hand or sleeve.

If you are sick, don't come to work. If you come to work sick, you will be sent home. Seek medical attention if you are sick. A lot of the employees work hourly jobs, so this was a big thing. So no risk of loosing their job, but if a bunch of employees start to get sick, they don't have a income unless they are a full time employee they don't get PTO.
Cy_Tolliver
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VaultingChemist said:

Cy_Tolliver said:

VaultingChemist said:

The stats are from a study of 44,000 Covid-19 cases. If you don't believe the Chinese doctors that performed the research and wrote the study, you can research it yourself.

10,000 deaths from the flu......so? The coronavirus is just in the very early stages of exponential growth. Check back in 30 days.
That's the USA homey. USA. We won't have 10,000 deaths in the USA in 30 days.

This thing is basically the flu but a bit more communicable. Only the elderly or people with susceptible immunce systems are at serious risk. Panicking that your average person will get it and die isn't supported nor factual.
Here are two different scenarios.....

Quote:

Best likely scenario: a typical flu year
The best likely outcome is that COVID-19 is like a typical flu season:
  • 10% of the world gets infected
  • 0.05% of infected people die
  • Globally, about 400,000 people die
  • Most deaths occur among people over 65 and/or especially susceptible to respiratory infections
  • Social and economic impacts are fairly minor
Worst likely scenario: the 1918 flu pandemic
The worst likely scenario is that COVID-19 is roughly comparable to the 1918 flu pandemic:
  • 50% of the world gets infected
  • 2% of infected people die
  • Globally, about 80,000,000 people die
  • Most deaths occur among people over 40 and/or especially susceptible to respiratory infections
  • Children and young adults are likely to be much less severely affected
  • Substantial social impacts including extensive voluntary and government-mandated closures
  • Substantial economic impacts including a global recession
  • Catastrophic impact on travel, hospitality, and food service sectors
  • The acute phase of the pandemic lasts for 3 - 18 months
  • COVID-19 recurs annually, just like the flu and the common cold

Covid-19 will most likely be about halfway between the best and worst scenarios, which will be way worse than the flu, but not apocalyptic.
You said we will have 10,000 deaths in 30 days. I said you are wrong. Did you put wheels on the goalposts now or are you admitting that was a false statement?
Rydyn
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No. It's LESS communicable and MORE severe than the flu.

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020
Quote:

From WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 3 March 2020

However, there are some important differences between COVID-19 and influenza.

First, COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza, from the data we have so far. With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19.

The second major difference is that COVID-19 causes more severe disease than seasonal influenza.
While many people globally have built up immunity to seasonal flu strains, COVID-19 is a new virus to which no one has immunity. That means more people are susceptible to infection, and some will suffer severe disease. Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.

Third, we have vaccines and therapeutics for seasonal flu, but at the moment there is no vaccine and no specific treatment for COVID-19. However, clinical trials of therapeutics are now being done, and more than 20 vaccines are in development.

And fourth, we don't even talk about containment for seasonal flu it's just not possible. But it is possible for COVID-19. We don't do contact tracing for seasonal flu but countries should do it for COVID-19, because it will prevent infections and save lives. Containment is possible.

To summarize, COVID-19 spreads less efficiently than flu, transmission does not appear to be driven by people who are not sick, it causes more severe illness than flu, there are not yet any vaccines or therapeutics, and it can be contained which is why we must do everything we can to contain it. That's why WHO recommends a comprehensive approach.
VaultingChemist
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Quote:


You said we will have 10,000 deaths in 30 days. I said you are wrong. Did you put wheels on the goalposts now or are you admitting that was a false statement?
I never said 10,000 deaths in 30 days. Several pages ago, I said it would be over 1000. I am just stating that we will know in 30 days which scenario will be the most accurate.

You are as bad as the MSM when it comes to twisting people's words.
Cy_Tolliver
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Rydyn said:

No. It's LESS communicable and MORE severe than the flu.

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020
Quote:

From WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 3 March 2020

However, there are some important differences between COVID-19 and influenza.

First, COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza, from the data we have so far. With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19.

The second major difference is that COVID-19 causes more severe disease than seasonal influenza.
While many people globally have built up immunity to seasonal flu strains, COVID-19 is a new virus to which no one has immunity. That means more people are susceptible to infection, and some will suffer severe disease. Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.

Third, we have vaccines and therapeutics for seasonal flu, but at the moment there is no vaccine and no specific treatment for COVID-19. However, clinical trials of therapeutics are now being done, and more than 20 vaccines are in development.

And fourth, we don't even talk about containment for seasonal flu it's just not possible. But it is possible for COVID-19. We don't do contact tracing for seasonal flu but countries should do it for COVID-19, because it will prevent infections and save lives. Containment is possible.

To summarize, COVID-19 spreads less efficiently than flu, transmission does not appear to be driven by people who are not sick, it causes more severe illness than flu, there are not yet any vaccines or therapeutics, and it can be contained which is why we must do everything we can to contain it. That's why WHO recommends a comprehensive approach.

OK?

Stats I've seen show a 2% death rate compared to 1% for common flu, but again researchers have pointed out that new diseases tend to skew higher in death rates because many folks are not diagnosed because physicians have never seen it before.
Cy_Tolliver
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VaultingChemist said:

Quote:


You said we will have 10,000 deaths in 30 days. I said you are wrong. Did you put wheels on the goalposts now or are you admitting that was a false statement?
I never said 10,000 deaths in 30 days. Several pages ago, I said it would be over 1000. I am just stating that we will know in 30 days which scenario will be the most accurate.
You said "10,000 deaths from the flu......so? The coronavirus is just in the very early stages of exponential growth. Check back in 30 days."

The obvious implication here is that in 30 days, 10,000 will not be a significant number.
VaultingChemist
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Quote:

Stats I've seen show a 2% death rate compared to 1% for common flu, but again researchers have pointed out that new diseases tend to skew higher in death rates because many folks are not diagnosed because physicians have never seen it before.
Flu is 0.1%, which is 20 times less than Covid-19.

Quote:

The obvious implication here is that in 30 days, 10,000 will not be a significant number.
No. The obvious implication is that in 30 days we will know if this is going to be much worse than the flu.
VaultingChemist
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I used your 2% figure for Covid-19. The seasonal flu is 0.1%, not 1%. Simple math 2/0.1=20.


Here are some interactive graphs that compare swine flu with Covid-19. Use your brain.

Interactive graphs
aunuwyn08
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This thread gets way too long with all the people trying to show off here. Just bring in new information about the epidemic or shut up. No one cares about the flu, your politics, retirement funds, or your supposed credentials.

We need to start flagging people for derailing.
fullback44
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This is not Coronavirus.. but Breitbart is reporting over 20,000 flu deaths this year already... so at this point, the flu has been killing roughly 7500 people a month... not good

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/06/update-influenza-deaths-now-total-20000-including-elevated-number-of-136-children/

Conclusion: don't take the flu lightly just because Coronavirus is here
erudite
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Quote:

Howdy DEEP team.

It is a very sad day today. We are very sorry to tell you that the
Festival has been cancelled due to concerns about COVID-19. This
decision was made by the Department and University officials in
coordination with us. Your safety and the safety of our attendees is our
primary concern for the event. We cannot in good conscience place anyone
at risk.

We know how hard you all have been working to create your demos for the
Festival and we really appreciate all the effort you have given to the
program. We will still have our DEEP showcase at the end of the semester
for you to show off the result of your work.

We hope you understand the decision. Please contact us with any
questions or concerns that you have.

Sincerely,

Tatiana and Dawson

Physics DEEP festival canceled.
revvie
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One thing for sure after reading last nights posts, you can tell Jack Daniels was consulted early and often about COVID19.
cone
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barely or best case scenario 5x greater

and 10x greater chance for required hospitalization

you seem pretty up on this though
Big Al 1992
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The expert we all need - WWOJD.

The comments...

Big Al 1992
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My fav...

HouAggie2007
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My favorite is him blaming his dad's poor retirement planning on this.

Dude XOM had been ****ing flat for years , go back and look compared to the S&P.
redsquirrelAG
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Savage.
scottimus
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People need to stop thinking about past precedents and look to the future.

Nobody knows the true implications of this thing, here, in the United States...but we are here, now, so it is our fight...to win.

On that note, if you have children, I would expect/plan for a long Spring Break. For instance, I work for a department at A&M. Distance learning has already been brought up, and everyone has been advised to be ready for that event.

It would be downright logical for A&M to extend Spring Break insofar as to reduce their liability on the campus of an outbreak and the consequences associated with that. 50k-60k-70k? just went home/away for the break...I don't think TAMU would like to deal with an outbreak on campus. Imagine having to quarantine an entire dorm on campus and the lawsuits that could result. Kids went home for a week? What better place for them to be, at this time, then with their family...and not come back until there is more information and control of the situation.

So, I think all parents should be ready for that to happen...possibly across Texas/US.

Obviously, the sanitation protocols discussed are important, but we should also look at the societal/family health side of the situation. What is your plan if someone in your family gets sick? Has been in contact with someone that was sick? Are there elderly in your home? Any people with underlying health conditions? Do you have the necessary medications for 2-4 weeks of staying at home? I remember, early on in this thread, someone that needs insulin wanted to grab a months supply as a result of this thread. He was just looking for a location, and a poster told him where to find it ...another poster even offered to purchase it for them if they needed assistance. Very gracious of them.

These are the topics and actions that need to be discussed as a forum, family, and society. Time to plan beyond the tp, food, and...alcohol stock and move into a phase of "action" planning for different scenarios and families. This thread can also serve as a great resource for that with all of the knowledge and perspectives.

I, for one, and thankful for the internet and TexAgs at this time for reading so many opinions/facts about the situation. Not even having been banned over the last couple of days has diminished my interest in this topic/resource. It can be used for the greater good and should, especially in a time like this.

There is certainly no need for panic or hysterics; we have the resources, technology, and wherewithal as a country to win this fight.

Prayers for all.
Suppose I was an idiot. Suppose I was a member of congress. But, I repeat myself.
GarlandAg2012
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HouAggie2007 said:

My favorite is him blaming his dad's poor retirement planning on this.

Dude XOM had been ****ing flat for years , go back and look compared to the S&P.


I also think it's stupid to put all your eggs in one basket, but Exxon has paid a solid dividend for a long time, so share price alone isn't really a fair way to look at it. That said we shouldn't keep detailing the thread probably.
moko76
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There are conflicting data on infection rates and death rates due to unreliable estimates of the denominator for both metrics.

That is say we don't know how many people have been infected and we don't know the total number exposed but who haven't become ill.

This is in part due to the fact that diagnostic assays have only recently become available.

Until such high quality epidemiological studies are done for covid 19 all we have for infection rates and death rates are broad estimates.

In contrast the rates for influenza have been very precisely defined over decades by many high quality epidemiologic studies.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
lead
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woodlees said:

There are conflicting data on infection rates and death rates due to unreliable estimates of the denominator for both metrics.

That is say we don't know how many people have been infected and we don't know the total number exposed but who haven't become ill.

This is in part due to the fact that diagnostic assays have only recently become available.

Until such high quality epidemiological studies are done for covid 19 all we have for infection rates and death rates are broad estimates.

In contrast the rates for influenza have been very precisely defined over decades by many high quality epidemiologic studies.
yes
Shanked Punt
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Deaths over total cases doesn't completely tell the whole story as there are large numbers of cases that recently get discovered in a growing pandemic that need to come to some sort of conclusion

Deaths over deaths plus recovered cases also doesn't tell the whole story as it's difficult to know exactly how many people have been infected with no to mild symptoms, especially with crappy testing in some countries.

People can just make their best guess on the available data
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