k2aggie07 said:

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Paradoxically, there is an inverse relationship between concern and outcomes. If everyone was totally lackadaisical about this it would be extremely dangerous. If absolutely everyone was severely concerned it would be a nothing event. So we need people to be concerned and take action, buy by taking that action en masse we render the action unnecessary. Then all the naysayers say - see? Nothing event. It's interesting to think about

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Well said

I just told someone that - if it's taking out elderly suddenly the entire world gets out of the debt bomb that is aging seniors - wowza

cisgenderedAggie said:

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I don't know, the capacity for overwhelming critical systems, namely healthcare, seems like it's pretty much THE goalpost.

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Somewhat related, and unique to our healthcare system, would be the bankruptcies from all of the medical bills.

One study pegs that at around 65% today, either from the bills themselves or unpaid time off from work.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/11/this-is-the-real-reason-most-americans-file-for-bankruptcy.html

Even if all those cases don't happen at once, and we manage to have hospital beds to treat people, those stays of several weeks long will leave people some extraordinary expensive bills that many aren't going to be able to pay when nearly 80% are already living paycheck to paycheck.

This is just another economic cost of this whole thing.

Have a trip to Vegas planned in a few weeks. I'm assuming this thing is going to be so blown up by then that my wife is not going to let that happen. Vegas is probably the worst place to be right now.

gonemaroon said:

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I just told someone that - if it's taking out elderly suddenly the entire world gets out of the debt bomb that is aging seniors - wowza

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Don't forget the goverment windfall from inheritance taxes!

we also have a large segment of culture that goes to the ER/calls an ambulance for a stubbed toe.. I wonder how much worse that will be when people have a simple fever and go straight to the ER.

One of the comments on the link in my previous posts goes to another commentary...

source: http://virological.org/t/tackling-rumors-of-a-suspicious-origin-of-ncov2019/384

I think this is the guy that wrote it: https://www.medschool.lsuhsc.edu/microbiology/faculty_detail.aspx?name=gallaher_william

He argues that the supposition of the origin being the RaTG13 sequence is wrong. But still, the evidence is pretty clear that this virus is not a genetically engineered one.

Question as it relates to air travel. Why isn't this popping up more at airports with workers, etc. reading into transmission of this. A lot of stuff popping up is x person travelled to/from a hotbed country in past week.

Why aren't workers getting this? Or is it we just don't know yet.

The SK was a cluster that, from what I have read, only has occurred one time thus far with all known cases.

In the US, when we get sick we go to hospitals and ERs by defualt. Instead I wonder if we should be looking for technological solutions and non-hospital settings for healthcare needs. Maybe this pandemic-scare will help push alternatives (if only healthcare was a free market, right?)

So if we run out of available respirators and, say, 10,000 people over the age of 70 die as a result should we freak out? Yes it's horrible if your the dead and a family member but should we be shutting down systems and rearrange our lives because of a lack of 100k hospital beds and 10k respirators nationwide? (Are there at home respirators not being used or can CPAP machines be modified for similar use and then rented out like an AirBnB for your at-home healthcare gear? Could be a nice secondary market be developed?)

gigemJTH12 said:

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Have a trip to Vegas planned in a few weeks. I'm assuming this thing is going to be so blown up by then that my wife is not going to let that happen. Vegas is probably the worst place to be right now.

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So far it seems that business trips and conferences are being stopped due to an abundance of caution and participants pulling out. But personal travel and travel for pleasure doesn't yet seem to be slowing down all that much.

For sure. But I mean look how quickly this has picked up in a week. I fear for what it will all look like in 3 more weeks.

Details for all 22 Covid-19 deaths in South Korea so far



Source of table
Additional commentary from OP:

• There is no evidence that "mental illness" is associated with a higher Covid-19 death rate. Note that the Korean release states "underlying conditions" which does not necessarily imply comorbidity. The reason for the significant number of deceased with mental illness would seem to stem from the many inpatients in the hospital psychiatric ward who'd contracted the virus due to a Shincheonji gathering held at the funeral ward of the same hospital.
• The present death rate should not be treated as strong data at the moment, given that a considerable proportion of cases have only been confirmed in the past few days.
• Source for the data

UncoverAg00 said:

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One of the comments on the link in my previous posts goes to another commentary...

source: http://virological.org/t/tackling-rumors-of-a-suspicious-origin-of-ncov2019/384

I think this is the guy that wrote it: https://www.medschool.lsuhsc.edu/microbiology/faculty_detail.aspx?name=gallaher_william

He argues that the supposition of the origin being the RaTG13 sequence is wrong. But still, the evidence is pretty clear that this virus is not a genetically engineered one.

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So what he is saying is that it did not come from bats today, but some of the code has been conserved and expressed originally from a virus over 50 years ago?

Quote:

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Given that furin cleavage signals are present in other coronaviruses at exactly that point in the S1/S2 boundary region, it only LOOKS unusual, especially against the backdrop of SARS. The preponderance of evidence, coupled with Ockham's razor (that the simplest explanation is preferred) dictates that the PRRA sequence has been conserved in nCoV2019 from a long ago ancestor virus. It is not of suspicious origin. The closest bat virus sequence is really not close at all.

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So where did it originate?

I mean, sure, care should be scaled to the need. But if people are in severe condition and need to be hospitalized, what do you do? I doubt in Wuhan, especially considering the scale of the outbreak, they were admitting people who didn't need it for funsies. I saw (and linked earlier in this thread) a paper saying that healthcare resource limitations probably account for the disparity in mortality in Wuhan vs the rest of China.

Should we freak out? No, not at all. We shouldn't freak out even if a couple of million people die. It's not productive. We should simply do what we can to reduce the negative impact of this risk to ourselves, our families, and our fellow citizens.

If that means I need to stay home for two weeks or not go to a work conference, what's the big deal?

Here's another thing to consider. Right down the street from me there is a major turnaround about to start that will have something like 3,000 additional workers on site every day. If a handful of people get sick there, you're talking Serious Dollars in economic impact. It's not just mortality, or saving the elderly (although that's certainly a noble sentiment).

Starting to see a bunch of this type of talk.


Who's willing to support bailout package to cover healthcare providers across the country and insurance companies? And nursing homes/assisted living? And airlines/airports? And cruise ships? And ports? And shipping/trucking? And........

I won't be surprised if Trump announces a $3000 tax credit (or even direct payment if things get really bad) to be used for CV related testing/illness and a higher amount if you have more critical care.

we don't get to vote on MMT, it's coming no matter what.

So Dems and people with TDS are more likely to go down?

I can live with that. lol

riverrataggie said:

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Question as it relates to air travel. Why isn't this popping up more at airports with workers, etc. reading into transmission of this. A lot of stuff popping up is x person travelled to/from a hotbed country in past week.

Why aren't workers getting this? Or is it we just don't know yet.

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Because people are washing their hands.

VaultingChemist said:

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Who would have thought it might be a virus that brings down the regime in Iran.

I also don't care for the article's argument about strong evidence of not manipulated. The statement was actually based on the RBD residues using the assumption that the substitutions present in covid19 aren't what we're previously published as predicted to be optimized. Suggesting that this is the result of natural selection against human ACE2. But natural selection could be approximated by trial and error in vitro and I'm skeptical someone doing this kind of work under classified research would be publishing their predictions or results. They also go on to state that they think that manipulation efforts would have used different replication systems. That kind of implies assumption of unknown intent. If this were manipulated for undisclosed purpose, who knows what and why the purpose was. The article even goes on to say that they can't disprove any origin theories, but simply provide some credible alternatives.

The response is a pretty good point though. 19 no coding mutations in wobble position is pretty good evidence that the amino acid residues are probably not very telling on origin. While it does seem that there's likely a more natural cause, I'm still not sure this is conclusive evidence that there was not some kind of manipulation involved.

Very big think

Just in time for Bernie

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Very big think

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I'm having a hard time believing 48% of the country has heart disease.

Lol. Apparently anyone with a blood pressure above 130/80 is considered to have heart disease.

Tx-Ag2010 said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Very big think

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I'm having a hard time believing 48% of the country has heart disease.

Lol. Apparently anyone with a blood pressure above 130/80 is considered to have heart disease.

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Just another doomsday, click bait headline.

Have had "can't trust the Chinese" drum beaten more here than Tina Turner after Ike went on a coke bender, so what about the WHO?? Can y'all trust WHO or would some of y'all like to keep posting random twitter feeds?

cisgenderedAggie said:

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I also don't care for the article's argument about strong evidence of not manipulated. The statement was actually based on the RBD residues using the assumption that the substitutions present in covid19 aren't what we're previously published as predicted to be optimized. Suggesting that this is the result of natural selection against human ACE2. But natural selection could be approximated by trial and error in vitro and I'm skeptical someone doing this kind of work under classified research would be publishing their predictions or results. They also go on to state that they think that manipulation efforts would have used different replication systems. That kind of implies assumption of unknown intent. If this were manipulated for undisclosed purpose, who knows what and why the purpose was. The article even goes on to say that they can't disprove any origin theories, but simply provide some credible alternatives.

The response is a pretty good point though. 19 no coding mutations in wobble position is pretty good evidence that the amino acid residues are probably not very telling on origin. While it does seem that there's likely a more natural cause, I'm still not sure this is conclusive evidence that there was not some kind of manipulation involved.

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Good analysis. On a similar note, early in January I was speaking to SoccerDoc about genetic manipulation of respiratory RNA viruses in which he indicated it is not possible.

When I mentioned using the CRISPR technique, he simply brushed it off as not possible. Further more, people on this thread elaborated that CRISPR was like splicing in genes with a "shotgun" in that you never know exactly what you would get.

Of course my thought was that the amount of resources, people, and, given that China just sent a scientist to prison for using the CRISPR technique for gene editing babies, evidence of such work lead me not to believe him.

Ironically, that scientist was trying to create babies immune to HIV using the CRISPR technique...also, we see papers directly published from that Wuhan Biolab on Corona Viruses and HIV genetic treatments.

I think it is clear as day China was messing around with stuff like this. They had to send that Doctor to prison as a publicity statement.

IrishTxAggie said:

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Have had "can't trust the Chinese" drum beaten more here than Tina Turner after Ike went on a coke bender, so what about the WHO?? Can y'all trust WHO or would some of y'all like to keep posting random twitter feeds?

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LOL

Ain't nobody trust the WHO.

scottimus said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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Have had "can't trust the Chinese" drum beaten more here than Tina Turner after Ike went on a coke bender, so what about the WHO?? Can y'all trust WHO or would some of y'all like to keep posting random twitter feeds?

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LOL

Ain't nobody trust the WHO.

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Because a grad student in China is so reliable for better information.

Could say the same on anything coming out of the Trump administration

UncoverAg00 said:

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Not sure if this has already been posted or not... apologies if it has.

Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2
source: http://virological.org/t/the-proximal-origin-of-sars-cov-2/398
Date: 2/16/2020

Interesting snippets...

Quote:

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Thus the SARS-CoV-2 spike appears to be the result of selection on human or human-like ACE2 permitting another optimal binding solution to arise. This is strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is not the product of genetic engineering.

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Quote:

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It is improbable that SARS-CoV-2 emerged through laboratory manipulation of an existing SARS-related coronavirus. As noted above, the RBD of SARS-CoV-2 is optimized for human ACE2 receptor binding with an efficient binding solution different to that which would have been predicted. Further, if genetic manipulation had been performed, one would expect that one of the several reverse genetic systems available for betacoronaviruses would have been used. However, this is not the case as the genetic data shows that SARS-CoV-2 is not derived from any previously used virus backbone17. Instead, we propose two scenarios that can plausibly explain the origin of SARS-CoV-2: (i) natural selection in a non-human animal host prior to zoonotic transfer, and (ii) natural selection in humans following zoonotic transfer.

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wasn't something about ACE2 mentioned early on in that smokers were more susceptible? If so, smoking is not as prevalent here as it once was. It might hit the boomers and greatest generation the hardest. Perhaps all the potheads as well.

Does vaping have any effect on ACE2?

IrishTxAggie said:

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scottimus said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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Have had "can't trust the Chinese" drum beaten more here than Tina Turner after Ike went on a coke bender, so what about the WHO?? Can y'all trust WHO or would some of y'all like to keep posting random twitter feeds?

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LOL

Ain't nobody trust the WHO.

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Because a grad student in China is so reliable for better information.

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Irish,

You practically proved my points last night in your responses.

I stated that China was predicted to peak out in Mid March- You stated cases are slowing down now, two weeks away from Mid March.

I stated people are still under quarantine- You stated that, even at your plants, you have some workers under travel restrictions that could not make it to your plants.


Furthermore, it is quite clear you have a significant financial interest China with your plants/shipping containers. In America we call that disclosure of a financial conflict of interest. Essentially rendering your opinion as biased and therefore moot.

Call me names, doomsdayer, what ever...I am just being objective and reporting what I see/hear without any bias or ties to the country myself.

Shanked Punt said:

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This doesn't give me much confidence in our ability to contain this. Presumably the viral load was too low to detect, or the tests are crap. Probably both.

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I said this yesterday, but we don't really "contain" the flu, so I don't know why we would reasonably expect to contain this. I'm not sure it matters what measures you put in place, eventually this virus is going to touch all areas of the country.

To me, the primary reason for containment efforts is so that the spread of the virus goes more slowly than it would organically, so that healthcare resources don't get as overwhelmed by an explosion of cases all at the same time.

But my guess is that the novelty of "first case reported on Muleshoe" is going to go away completely over the next several weeks as this virus hits pretty much everywhere.

The best hope to me that this virus doesn't hit all our hometowns in the next month is the uncertain impact of warmer weather. If that is a limiting factor, maybe we will get a reprieve.