China Coronavirus Outbreak Spreads; Hundreds Infected As Human-To-Human Transmission
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Last: 2 mo ago by Stat Monitor Repairman
So just to recap, as the CDC began testing outside a very narrowly defined criteria over the weekend we've seen new cases in California, Washington, Illinois, Florida and New York.
Some people speculate that there are hundreds more already infected that we will find once the testing capacity increases.
Others dismiss that notion as crazy conspiracy theories with a political agenda. Doesn't provide an explanation as to why the virus wouldn't be able to spread.
It does sound like one side does have an agenda.
Some people speculate that there are hundreds more already infected that we will find once the testing capacity increases.
Others dismiss that notion as crazy conspiracy theories with a political agenda. Doesn't provide an explanation as to why the virus wouldn't be able to spread.
It does sound like one side does have an agenda.
The good news is that this virus will probably prevent a Soylent Green situation.
What is your incentive for posting on this thread? Are you just upset that the virus may interfere with your wife's 30th birthday trip to France?Furlock Bones said:i'm suggesting that this person has an additional incentive (book sales) to keep the hysteria going. it's also the reason that cnbc put him on television.cisgenderedAggie said:
Is it your suggestion that the statements on availability of testing kits are false?
His test was a lab test, not a test kit.TexasAggie_02 said:
Since these tests were /are sh*t, what are the odds that the college station student from Wuhan was actually positive back in January?
The lab tests the CDC were doing in Atlanta weren't the issue; it was the test kits with a manufacturing defect.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
I wish there was a separate, information only Coronavirus thread. All the back and forth about how it's being handled is just a bunch of clutter that doesn't help anyone right now.
gigemJTH12 said:
I wish there was a separate, information only Coronavirus thread. All the back and forth about how it's being handled is just a bunch of clutter that doesn't help anyone right now.
Amen.
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my point is that after 9K posts some things have become quite clear.VaultingChemist said:What is your incentive for posting on this thread? Are you just upset that the virus may interfere with your wife's 30th birthday trip to France?Furlock Bones said:i'm suggesting that this person has an additional incentive (book sales) to keep the hysteria going. it's also the reason that cnbc put him on television.cisgenderedAggie said:
Is it your suggestion that the statements on availability of testing kits are false?
there are a couple of posters on here that are bound and determined to foment panic.
there are a couple of posters that need to step away from the ledge as they are already panicking.
some people on here are being pushed by algorithms to even more extreme news (mostly fake), and they don't even realize it.
ultimately, this virus has not been nearly as bad as it has been portrayed thus far.
lastly, i'm certainly hoping it does not impact our trip. being new parents, our time to get away is limited.
So since December, we've got two deaths in the USA of 350M people. And those two are from the same nursing home over 75 years old?
How many people die in nursing homes daily?
How many have recovered and been released from quarantines in the US?
Daily agenda and travel will remain as intended for me. However, I will continue to not make travel plans to inland China as is my typical MO in life.
How many people die in nursing homes daily?
How many have recovered and been released from quarantines in the US?
Daily agenda and travel will remain as intended for me. However, I will continue to not make travel plans to inland China as is my typical MO in life.
Furlock: things aren't that bad
China: welding apartment doors shut can't contain this, here's a dystopian new cell phone app to convince people to never go outside again
China: welding apartment doors shut can't contain this, here's a dystopian new cell phone app to convince people to never go outside again
coastsrs said:
So since two days ago when we started actually testing more than a token number of people , we've got two deaths in the USA of 350M people. And those two are from the same nursing home over 75 years old?
How many people die in nursing homes daily?
How many have recovered and been released from quarantines in the US?
Daily agenda and travel will remain as intended for me. However, I will continue to not make travel plans to inland China as is my typical MO in life.
FIFY
wessimo said:coastsrs said:
So since two days ago when we started actually testing more than a token number of people , we've got two deaths in the USA of 350M people. And those two are from the same nursing home over 75 years old?
How many people die in nursing homes daily?
How many have recovered and been released from quarantines in the US?
Daily agenda and travel will remain as intended for me. However, I will continue to not make travel plans to inland China as is my typical MO in life.
FIFY
Cool, how many people die in nursing homes daily?
What leads you to this conclusion? The number of deaths is not the main issue. It is the percentage of infected that will require 12 days of hospitalization, currently estimated at about 15%. Even if that percentage drops to 5%, it is going to be a huge strain on our healthcare systems.Quote:
ultimately, this virus has not been nearly as bad as it has been portrayed thus far.
"Not enough" /Mike BloombergQuote:
Cool, how many people die in nursing homes daily?
Dunno, but it is about to be a lot more than normal.
Its interesting to me to see people talk about risks. Maybe this is a good point, I don't know. But there's some kind of technical study of risk that's used in large project management and probably other places like safety and public policy.
We use risk as a hazard's impact times the probability it'll occur to weight the severity of the risk. There a zillion and one risks in your life. Some are risks to general health and well-being, some are potentially fatal. We generally accept some risks, mitigate others as we can, or change our behavior to avoid them. None of this changes those hazards - they exist. Introducing new hazards to life doesn't diminish others. They just go right into the risk matrix.
But we shouldn't think about this as a strictly fatal risk, say - welp, <1% chance of death in my age bracket, times .0001% chance I get it, therefore this is inconsequential to everyone in the world. For one, that's foolish. Lots of risks we actively avoid aren't fatal, but harmful in degrees. For two, it's incredibly narcissistic. I know that we live in a society of narcissists (I mean, look at social media) but it's amazing to me that people can't even break out of this mindset when we're talking in very broad terms about a public health issue. It's like we've become incapable.
There's a pretty broad range of outcomes here, and body count directly attributable to the virus is only one aspect.
Paradoxically, there is an inverse relationship between concern and outcomes. If everyone was totally lackadaisical about this it would be extremely dangerous. If absolutely everyone was severely concerned it would be a nothing event. So we need people to be concerned and take action, buy by taking that action en masse we render the action unnecessary. Then all the naysayers say - see? Nothing event. It's interesting to think about.
So consider a different thought. China took swift and decisive action and in that action wound up with exponential growth for a few months, ~3000 dead so far, and what, like 80,000 cases? Yeah, non-event in a country of a billion plus - see above. But what would it have looked like if they ignored it?
Now imagine we have an outbreak in the US. We are culturally incapable of the mindset that China has, or even Japan, where social consciousness and pressure are culturally encoded to outweigh or at list counterbalance individual action. Even if this only kills 0.5% of people who get it (5x the seasonal flu) that could be a severe event for our country.
Let's just consider that, and not panic. But also not ignore. It's just another risk. Making fun of people who are being pragmatic about this (having enough food to be able to quarantine your family for two weeks, for example) isn't productive any more than telling someone they shouldn't wear their seatbelt.
We use risk as a hazard's impact times the probability it'll occur to weight the severity of the risk. There a zillion and one risks in your life. Some are risks to general health and well-being, some are potentially fatal. We generally accept some risks, mitigate others as we can, or change our behavior to avoid them. None of this changes those hazards - they exist. Introducing new hazards to life doesn't diminish others. They just go right into the risk matrix.
But we shouldn't think about this as a strictly fatal risk, say - welp, <1% chance of death in my age bracket, times .0001% chance I get it, therefore this is inconsequential to everyone in the world. For one, that's foolish. Lots of risks we actively avoid aren't fatal, but harmful in degrees. For two, it's incredibly narcissistic. I know that we live in a society of narcissists (I mean, look at social media) but it's amazing to me that people can't even break out of this mindset when we're talking in very broad terms about a public health issue. It's like we've become incapable.
There's a pretty broad range of outcomes here, and body count directly attributable to the virus is only one aspect.
Paradoxically, there is an inverse relationship between concern and outcomes. If everyone was totally lackadaisical about this it would be extremely dangerous. If absolutely everyone was severely concerned it would be a nothing event. So we need people to be concerned and take action, buy by taking that action en masse we render the action unnecessary. Then all the naysayers say - see? Nothing event. It's interesting to think about.
So consider a different thought. China took swift and decisive action and in that action wound up with exponential growth for a few months, ~3000 dead so far, and what, like 80,000 cases? Yeah, non-event in a country of a billion plus - see above. But what would it have looked like if they ignored it?
Now imagine we have an outbreak in the US. We are culturally incapable of the mindset that China has, or even Japan, where social consciousness and pressure are culturally encoded to outweigh or at list counterbalance individual action. Even if this only kills 0.5% of people who get it (5x the seasonal flu) that could be a severe event for our country.
Let's just consider that, and not panic. But also not ignore. It's just another risk. Making fun of people who are being pragmatic about this (having enough food to be able to quarantine your family for two weeks, for example) isn't productive any more than telling someone they shouldn't wear their seatbelt.
we know the answer to that. they'll ask the government to step in and and backstop them just like they do with hurricanes and floods.JJMt said:
I wonder what the impact of this virus will be on health insurance companies if in fact it does explode here in the US. Do those insurance companies have sufficient reserves to pay the healthcare costs of thousands, tens of thousands, or more of hospitalized members?
This actually kind of reads like you're moving the goalposts... In the developed countries, what is the percentage of infected that need hospitalization versus simple drug+quarantine? Even it's as high as 15%, they wont all happen at the same time but instead over several months. So if a 1,000,000 are diagnosed in the US, we need 150,000 hospital beds total. From the outside, that doesnt seem like very very many. We need more for childbirths.VaultingChemist said:What leads you to this conclusion? The number of deaths is not the main issue. It is the percentage of infected that will require 12 days of hospitalization, currently estimated at about 15%. Even if that percentage drops to 5%, it is going to be a huge strain on our healthcare systems.Quote:
ultimately, this virus has not been nearly as bad as it has been portrayed thus far.
Also, isnt there a movement to treat some types of patients away from hospitals due to hospital-acquired infection concerns?
k2,
i agree with you. but, you know there are certain posters on here that are addicted to talking up disaster. you're right in that the US would never be able to do what China has done. first of all, Americans by and large are a much cleaner people than many, many countries around the world. could we still do better. yes. second, i'm happy we do not live in a China where the government can come in whenever they want and declare martial law, lock people in their houses, etc. freedom is worth a level of risk.
i agree with you. but, you know there are certain posters on here that are addicted to talking up disaster. you're right in that the US would never be able to do what China has done. first of all, Americans by and large are a much cleaner people than many, many countries around the world. could we still do better. yes. second, i'm happy we do not live in a China where the government can come in whenever they want and declare martial law, lock people in their houses, etc. freedom is worth a level of risk.
Not sure if this has already been posted or not... apologies if it has.
Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2
source: http://virological.org/t/the-proximal-origin-of-sars-cov-2/398
Date: 2/16/2020
Interesting snippets...
Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2
source: http://virological.org/t/the-proximal-origin-of-sars-cov-2/398
Date: 2/16/2020
Interesting snippets...
Quote:
Thus the SARS-CoV-2 spike appears to be the result of selection on human or human-like ACE2 permitting another optimal binding solution to arise. This is strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is not the product of genetic engineering.
Quote:
It is improbable that SARS-CoV-2 emerged through laboratory manipulation of an existing SARS-related coronavirus. As noted above, the RBD of SARS-CoV-2 is optimized for human ACE2 receptor binding with an efficient binding solution different to that which would have been predicted. Further, if genetic manipulation had been performed, one would expect that one of the several reverse genetic systems available for betacoronaviruses would have been used. However, this is not the case as the genetic data shows that SARS-CoV-2 is not derived from any previously used virus backbone17. Instead, we propose two scenarios that can plausibly explain the origin of SARS-CoV-2: (i) natural selection in a non-human animal host prior to zoonotic transfer, and (ii) natural selection in humans following zoonotic transfer.
I don't know, the capacity for overwhelming critical systems, namely healthcare, seems like it's pretty much THE goalpost.
Annual mortality rate among nursing home patients is over 30% and life expectancy is about 2 years. People in true nursing homes are on the verge of death, coronavirus or no. Almost any ailment could be their last ailment.coastsrs said:wessimo said:coastsrs said:
So since two days ago when we started actually testing more than a token number of people , we've got two deaths in the USA of 350M people. And those two are from the same nursing home over 75 years old?
How many people die in nursing homes daily?
How many have recovered and been released from quarantines in the US?
Daily agenda and travel will remain as intended for me. However, I will continue to not make travel plans to inland China as is my typical MO in life.
FIFY
Cool, how many people die in nursing homes daily?
So it's not weaponized HIV or a plot by the Illuminati and Bill Gates to wipe out half the world's population.UncoverAg00 said:
Not sure if this has already been posted or not... apologies if it has.
Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2
source: http://virological.org/t/the-proximal-origin-of-sars-cov-2/398
Date: 2/16/2020
Interesting snippets...Quote:
Thus the SARS-CoV-2 spike appears to be the result of selection on human or human-like ACE2 permitting another optimal binding solution to arise. This is strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is not the product of genetic engineering.Quote:
It is improbable that SARS-CoV-2 emerged through laboratory manipulation of an existing SARS-related coronavirus. As noted above, the RBD of SARS-CoV-2 is optimized for human ACE2 receptor binding with an efficient binding solution different to that which would have been predicted. Further, if genetic manipulation had been performed, one would expect that one of the several reverse genetic systems available for betacoronaviruses would have been used. However, this is not the case as the genetic data shows that SARS-CoV-2 is not derived from any previously used virus backbone17. Instead, we propose two scenarios that can plausibly explain the origin of SARS-CoV-2: (i) natural selection in a non-human animal host prior to zoonotic transfer, and (ii) natural selection in humans following zoonotic transfer.
Dang, I was so sure after reading this thread.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
It looks like OldAg89er succumbed. Haven't seen a post from him in a while.
Either he got drunk on Coronavirus or staph took him out. TexAgs staph that is.
Either he got drunk on Coronavirus or staph took him out. TexAgs staph that is.
Alibaba is using blockchain to save us
Pretty sure staff had enough after his massive copy & paste jobs from the sewers of Reddit.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Quote:
lastly, i'm certainly hoping it does not impact our trip. being new parents, our time to get away is limited.
And there is the answer. I feel for you. Truly, I do. 45 days ago you had everything in the world to look forward to: new baby, young wife, ability to pay for a nice trip to Paris. Life was freaking awesome and getting better then out of nowhere this thread comes along to upset all of that.
It sucks. It really does, I was looking forward to growing my business, doing some international travel, and building a new house this year. This virus issue has put all of that on pause.
We are all dealing with it in our own ways and processing in our own time frame. The ramifications of this were clear to me as soon as China started shutting down cities. I don't have the same responsibilities you do. I can think along those lines. IMO You still believe this is being overblown because you don't want it to invade your life.
I'm not going to tell you what to do or try to convince you it's a real threat. Your life is your life. I'm just pointing out what I've observed from your posts. Take it for what it's worth or don't.
he's on his horse to China right now to save us all - Godspeed!goodAg80 said:
It looks like OldAg89er succumbed. Haven't seen a post from him in a while.
Either he got drunk on Coronavirus or staph took him out. TexAgs staph that is.
We don't know. It gets really complicated to think about, and I am an engineer, not an epidemiologist. But let's think about this a bit.Quote:
This actually kind of reads like you're moving the goalposts... In the developed countries, what is the percentage of infected that need hospitalization versus simple drug+quarantine? Even it's as high as 15%, they wont all happen at the same time but instead over several months. So if a 1,000,000 are diagnosed in the US, we need 150,000 hospital beds total. From the outside, that doesnt seem like very very many. We need more for childbirths.
There's probably some portion of the population who are asymptomatic carriers. Then some who have minor symptoms but do not present for treatment - they don't become a case. Then there are those who go for treatment, and those are what we end up seeing. We don't know the breakdown of that. But, there's no reason I can see that those numbers would be significantly different in China than in the US.
So if we ignore the silent numbers (because they're unknowable and unmeasurable) we could expect that of those who show up for treatment you would get a similar breakdown of severity in the number of cases.
As far as I can see the number who present for treatment becomes severe - 80% of cases are minor, but still are diagnosed with pneumonia. Roughly half require oxygen. 5% require a ventilator (this is a severe case load). Average hospital stay is 12 days.
There is no drug treatment for this, so its gatorade and ibuprofen or acetaminophen to control fever in the minor case.
Daegu is the fourth largest city in S. Korea (2.5 million people) and they were saying on Feb 22 already their hospitals are under pressure. That was when there were 433 confirmed cases.
The 150,000 hospital beds gets added on top of current demands. Not a ton of hospital beds sitting empty, especially not ICU and ventilator. We may need more for childbirths, but the ones we need for childbirth don't stop - these needed beds get added on.
That being said there is a large "silent" capacity of beds that don't show up in the statistics. Lots of hospitals and outpatient places don't count "beds" if they're not for overnight stays. That should be reassuring, but also thinking that we may need to convert those and scale up capacity is concerning.
It is now that it seems mostly clear the Chinese economy wont blow up and result in a major stateside and worldwide recession. Critical healthcare systems aren't even close to being tested anywhere except for maybe SK where there was a death cult purposefully spreading the disease. Again I can say this from the outside...cisgenderedAggie said:
I don't know, the capacity for overwhelming critical systems, namely healthcare, seems like it's pretty much THE goalpost.
No doubt. I'm not advocating for that. But it also means if it gets into the wild in a major city (Wuhan is about the same size as NYC) it's going to worse, and it'll be harder to control it here. In Hong Kong everyone's wearing masks, shopkeepers go wipe down doorknobs and such periodically. In Singapore people are recording their temperature twice a day and reporting it to the government - and requiring visitors to buildings to take the temp before going in. We just don't have that kind of social responsibility drilled into us culturally from birth.
But, we are probably a more hygienic people on the whole and we have lower population density in general, so that offsets everything I said above. And at least we have some warning. This exploded out of nowhere in Wuhan and probably won't ever be quite that bad anywhere else because people are aware.
But, we are probably a more hygienic people on the whole and we have lower population density in general, so that offsets everything I said above. And at least we have some warning. This exploded out of nowhere in Wuhan and probably won't ever be quite that bad anywhere else because people are aware.
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