riverrataggie said:

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KidDoc said:

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SoupNazi2001 said:

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KidDoc said:

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This is a well written article about what to really be worried about once Coronavirus breaks out.

https://medium.com/@amwren/forget-about-the-death-rate-this-is-why-you-should-be-worried-about-the-coronavirus-890fbf9c4de6

Not enough beds in hospital or ICU in any country.

I fully expect to get it but I'm not worried as I'm middle aged and healthy. The burden on the medical system is going to be a significant challenge.

The author uses UK as an example but it is no better here. You cannot have tons of empty hospital beds and staffing sitting around just in case a novel pandemic happens. I would love to know how the temp new hospitals in China are doing.
------------------snip ------------------------
We think the virus might be much more infectious than the flu, but let's assume that only 8% of the UK population gets infected, the same as a severe flu season.
The UK population is 67 million people, that's 5.4 million infected.
Currents predictions are that 80% of the cases will be mild.
If 20% of those people require hospitalization for 36 weeks?
That's 1,086,176 People.
Do you know how many beds the NHS has?
140,000

--------------- snip ------------------------------------------

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The problem with these kind of articles is they always assume everyone will get it at the same time. Obviously it will be spread out.

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That is a good point but, from the current cases and evidence of temporary hospitals in China, this is not a 2-3 day illness. Most of the hospitalized patients seem to stay > 10 days which is a LONG hospital stay for a virus.

It will be interesting to see if home O2 will be more utilized as hospital beds start to run out.

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I've been curious about the length of hospital stay, were they staying for quarantine and had symptoms or that they were truly needing it?

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source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032

Thanks. Excellent find.

I can't take credit. Someone linked it earlier in the thread.

UncoverAg00 said:

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I can't take credit. Someone linked it earlier in the thread.

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Either way. Thanks for reposting. It's tough to keep up with everything when this thread is really rolling.

Especially with the people quoting entire medical journals to post a one liner about Trump.

HEB was mildly crowded. Only a couple people with full carts. I bought a bunch of tp, water, and beer. Ran into buddy that said he just got back from Philippines and China. Is that possible?

He was probably just trying to make a hole

Epic

These ratios look off to anyone else?

input doesn't equal output?

Been trying to keep up with this thread sense the beginning, ty to those staying on top of it. My question after reading this thread would be why are we surprised at the exponential growth in the first two weeks of a country's first case? It has been reported time and time again that the incubation period is 14+ days and it can be transmitted when asymptomatic... wouldn't the majority of the cases in the first two weeks be contracted before it was publicly known there was a case? Shouldn't the real question be if exponential growth is still seen after the initial 2-3 weeks? That would tell us containment is not working

UncoverAg00 said:

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riverrataggie said:

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KidDoc said:

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SoupNazi2001 said:

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KidDoc said:

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This is a well written article about what to really be worried about once Coronavirus breaks out.

https://medium.com/@amwren/forget-about-the-death-rate-this-is-why-you-should-be-worried-about-the-coronavirus-890fbf9c4de6

Not enough beds in hospital or ICU in any country.

I fully expect to get it but I'm not worried as I'm middle aged and healthy. The burden on the medical system is going to be a significant challenge.

The author uses UK as an example but it is no better here. You cannot have tons of empty hospital beds and staffing sitting around just in case a novel pandemic happens. I would love to know how the temp new hospitals in China are doing.
------------------snip ------------------------
We think the virus might be much more infectious than the flu, but let's assume that only 8% of the UK population gets infected, the same as a severe flu season.
The UK population is 67 million people, that's 5.4 million infected.
Currents predictions are that 80% of the cases will be mild.
If 20% of those people require hospitalization for 36 weeks?
That's 1,086,176 People.
Do you know how many beds the NHS has?
140,000

--------------- snip ------------------------------------------

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The problem with these kind of articles is they always assume everyone will get it at the same time. Obviously it will be spread out.

---

That is a good point but, from the current cases and evidence of temporary hospitals in China, this is not a 2-3 day illness. Most of the hospitalized patients seem to stay > 10 days which is a LONG hospital stay for a virus.

It will be interesting to see if home O2 will be more utilized as hospital beds start to run out.

---

I've been curious about the length of hospital stay, were they staying for quarantine and had symptoms or that they were truly needing it?

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source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032

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So 40% needed O2 and 12 day hospital stay. Yowsa.

30wedge said:

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Fizban said:

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Meanwhile...

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If we are all going to die from this virus, just go bareback

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Man has a plan. Gotta stay entertained when in quarantine.

Obviously the NEMJ is a reputable source, but after reading a little of the article, I don't have a lot of trust in that data. Any data from China should be scrutinized heavily - for good or bad.

AW 1880 said:

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Obviously the NEMJ is a reputable source, but after reading a little of the article, I don't have a lot of trust in that data. Any data from China should be scrutinized heavily - for good or bad.

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It's all we've got to work with.

Did they know this patient has coronavirus? If not that's one thing if they knew this does not bode well.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/world/coronavirus-news.html

Two health care workers in the San Francisco Bay Area tested positive for the coronavirus after they were exposed to a patient being treated for the virus at a hospital in Sacramento, the authorities said on Sunday.

The workers' conditions were not immediately available, but public health officials in Alameda County and Solano County said in a news release that the workers were isolated in their homes.

Other workers exposed to the patient in Sacramento may also test positive for the coronavirus, officials said.

"We took immediate and comprehensive measures intended to stop any further spread of the virus, including working with public health officials to trace the contacts the two workers may have had," Aimee Brewer, president of NorthBay HealthCare Group, said in the news release.

Both workers worked for a NorthBay hospital in Vacaville, Calif.

Public health officials said they were investigating who else the workers may have had contact with.

Alameda County, where one of the workers lives, is declaring a public health emergency, according to the news release.

Can an MD respond to this: The above article indicates that steroids were administered to quite a few patients.

I read somewhere else that steroids were a bad idea for this illness. Anyone have an idea on that?

OldArmy71 said:

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Can an MD respond to this: The above article indicates that steroids were administered to quite a few patients.

I read somewhere else that steroids were a bad idea for this illness. Anyone have an idea on that?

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I'm not an MD but I believe steroids can suppress the immune system. One of the videos from DR Campbell touched on this and said he couldn't see a good reason to do it.

Quote:

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Did they know this patient has coronavirus? If not that's one thing if they knew this does not bode well.

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Not at first, but once the patient was tested for it, they put anyone who had been in contact with that person into quarantine.

HEB putting limits on Hand sanitizer and cleaning product sales

https://www.kbtx.com/content/news/H-E-B-now-limiting-purchases-on-hand-sanitizer-products-and-wipes-568379141.html

KorbinDallas said:

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HEB putting limits on Hand sanitizer and cleaning product sales

https://www.kbtx.com/content/news/H-E-B-now-limiting-purchases-on-hand-sanitizer-products-and-wipes-568379141.html

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The limit is 4, how many were people buying? Holy hell. They planning to take showers with it?

KorbinDallas said:

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OldArmy71 said:

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Can an MD respond to this: The above article indicates that steroids were administered to quite a few patients.

I read somewhere else that steroids were a bad idea for this illness. Anyone have an idea on that?

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I'm not an MD but I believe steroids can suppress the immune system. One of the videos from DR Campbell touched on this and said he couldn't see a good reason to do it.

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Interesting that this came up. I have a family member that dates a guy of Chinese descent, who has many friends from Hong Kong. Obviously they all frequent many places within the Asian community predominantly visited by Chinese and, to a lesser extent, Koreans. She has a weak immune system because of preexisting health complications.

Within the last couple of weeks she was Rx'd a z-pac for respiratory inflammation, to which she did not respond. Within the last few days she's had rapid onset of flu-like symptoms and a steady increase in respiratory symptoms. Her boyfriend is also ill with the same. Neither has been out of the country nor, to their knowledge, had direct contact with anyone who has for at least several months. They're both planning to go to see their respective physicians tomorrow.

I'm aware that all of this is likely SOLELY coincidental and not in anyway related to the situation at hand but the situation raises enough flags that I can't dismiss it outright as unrelated.

cisgenderedAggie said:

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On the topic of strains on the healthcare system vs "it's just the flu"...

Three days ago FDA alerted a drug shortage related to coronavirus impact. The Agency has not disclosed what the drug was, only that the issue is related to shortage of the active pharmaceutical ingredient being manufactured in the Wuhan area. Thankfully, in this case, there are alternatives available, according to the FDA briefing. This will not always be the case.

Some speculation from RAPS (a professional organization for regulatory affairs):

https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/2/why-fda-cant-disclose-the-first-coronavirus-relat

Quote:

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In this case, FDA did say it was recently added to its drug shortages list, and recent additions include Allergan's treatment for complicated intra-abdominal infections, Avycaz (ceftazidime and avibactam), Mylan's blood pressure drug pindolol 10mg (and Sun Pharmaceutical offers the same drug), and Pfizer's chemotherapy fludarabine phosphate for injection.

Allergan told Focus in a statement: "We are experiencing an out of stock situation for AVYCAZ (ceftazidime and avibactam) for injection (2.5g) as we await regulatory approval on a new third-party manufacturer, which will ultimately allow us to continue our supply in the U.S. This situation is not related to any product or safety issue. All currently available AVYCAZ supply is unaffected and not at risk for recallTo be clear our recent drug shortage of AVYCAZ is not related to the coronavirus."

The reasoning behind Mylan and Sun's shortages is listed as "shortage of active ingredient," and Mylan did not respond to a request for comment.

-snip

A Pfizer spokesperson told Focus the shortage "is completely unrelated and pre-dates the outbreak...The majority of our finished product and active pharmaceutical ingredient are sourced from countries other than China. To date, we have not seen a disruption to our supply as a result of the virus.

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Perhaps the Pfizer and Allergan are telling the truth, but I wouldn't want to disclose relation to this event if I didn't have to. Pindolol is a beta-blocker. Alternatives exist, this time, but strain is present nonetheless.

But it's ok because it's just the flu...

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I'm not going to doubt Pfizer and Allergan on this. The FDA maintains a database of drug supplies, and at any given time, there's a decent number of shortages. They never give any details about the shortage, leaving it to the manufacturers to disclose due to stock prices.

I recently had a mild case of bronchitis and was prescribed a z-pack and a antibiotic.

Edit, I'm dumb, it was just the antibiotic, not 2 drugs

That's really gonna skew the statistics. The country only has 33k people. So this is a larger percentage than china's official numbers...

China completely bungled handing the virus.

Then Italy says, "Hold My Wine".

KorbinDallas said:

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I recently had a mild case of bronchitis and was prescribed a z-pack and a antibiotic.

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Well, that's it then, isn't it? You're going to die too.

claym711 said:

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Seems like we only know about the US cases that have been in critical condition or were part of groups that were aboard. CDC isn't testing anyone and samples have to be sent in.

That Washington strain had a mutation that <10% of China strains had? If so, it's here and spreading now. It will be a couple of weeks before we hit the kind of numbers people will be alarmed by.

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Yes, it's directly do the first reported case back on 1/19. That means it's been here six weeks already.

By OldAger's numbers, we should have like, what? 500000 cases and 80000 deaths by now? Sorry to burst your bubble, but although life is a little tense, it's more or less the same.

Rossticus said:

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KorbinDallas said:

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I recently had a mild case of bronchitis and was prescribed a z-pack and a antibiotic.

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Well, that's it then, isn't it? You're going to die too.

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Isn't a Z-Pack an antibiotic? I use them all the time when I have sinus infection. Why two antibiotics?

NavyAg92 said:

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Rossticus said:

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KorbinDallas said:

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I recently had a mild case of bronchitis and was prescribed a z-pack and a antibiotic.

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Well, that's it then, isn't it? You're going to die too.

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Isn't a Z-Pack an antibiotic? I use them all the time when I have sinus infection. Why two antibiotics?

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He's probably thinking of a medrol dose pack (methyl prednisone)

brd79 said:

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30wedge said:

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Fizban said:

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Meanwhile...

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If we are all going to die from this virus, just go bareback

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Better than a pallet full of peanut butter and dog food

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What's the purpose for the dog food?