Link or source on that?

Where did you see this??

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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You would think more people would think more people would go to the grocery stores at off hours like at 10 pm or something but nope, everyone wants to hit it at the same time. I don't know about you guys but I'm never ever going to the store during a pandemic during the most crowded times. That is just being completely brain dead.

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Yep. My wife now thinks I'm genius when she first questioned my sanity when I made us stock up earlier this week.

Mr.Infectious said:

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Link or source on that?

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Dad just read it on Drudge. So, maybe it's bullsh^t then. I didn't realize that's where he read it. He's sitting next to me.

I'm legitimately mystified by anyone under the age of 50 and healthy being individually concerned about their health and well-being. I can understand high risk persons wanting to be able to hole up and ride this thing out if it becomes widespread among the population at large but all this panic is creating a self fulfilling disaster that wouldn't otherwise exist.

We are screwing ourselves and it's ridiculous. People are by in large such irrational, panic driven animals.

Correct. You can still be bearish and buy puts on stocks that are on a SSR if you believe the underlying equity still has downside. Kind of a workaround if you still want to be short on it

https://www.fox5ny.com/news/nyse-could-close-trading-floor-in-coronavirus-contingency

My daughter's college just announced they're recalling the students from Rome, but they will be placed in quarantine upon arrival on the states and will have to complete their classes online.

(All juniors are required to study in Rome for a semester)

Serious stuff going on.

I've seen zero hysteria. If people are stocking up in preparation of school/bus closings and need or want to stay in, not sure why anyone would be against that.

YouBet said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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You would think more people would think more people would go to the grocery stores at off hours like at 10 pm or something but nope, everyone wants to hit it at the same time. I don't know about you guys but I'm never ever going to the store during a pandemic during the most crowded times. That is just being completely brain dead.

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Yep. My wife now thinks I'm genius when she first questioned my sanity when I made us stock up earlier this week.

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That exact conversation just happened in my living room too.

Thoughts on the chances that this kick starts a more significant, longer term, economic recession throughout the rest of 2020 and into 2021 or should we expect a relatively rapid rebound?

claym711 said:

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I've seen zero hysteria. If people are stocking up in preparation of school/bus closings and need or want to stay in, not sure why anyone would be against that.

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That's understandable. It's the reports of some people raiding stores like the nuclear apocalypse is upon us that blows my mind.

tehmackdaddy said:

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From Real Clear Science

Quote:

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Five Reasons You Don't Need to Panic About the COVID-19 Coronavirus
By Ross Pomeroy - RCP StaffFebruary 29, 2020

The COVID-19 coronavirus that emerged in Wuhan, China back in December 2019 is now spreading globally and will undoubtedly be declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) very soon. Its ascendance has already rattled stock markets, disrupted the daily lives of millions, and resulted in the heartbreaking deaths of nearly 3,000 people, including the first in the United States on February 29th. With COVID-19's spread now picking up steam outside of China it has now arrived in at least 60 countries and new cases are rising almost every day we can expect its outbreak to get worse before it gets better.

Make no mistake, COVID-19 is a grave pathogenic threat which must be taken seriously. According to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC):

More cases are likely to be identified in the coming days, including more cases in the United States. It's also likely that person-to-person spread will continue to occur, including in the United States. Widespread transmission of COVID-19 in the United States would translate into large numbers of people needing medical care at the same time. Schools, childcare centers, workplaces, and other places for mass gatherings may experience more absenteeism. Public health and healthcare systems may become overloaded, with elevated rates of hospitalizations and deaths. Other critical infrastructure, such as law enforcement, emergency medical services, and transportation industry may also be affected. Health care providers and hospitals may be overwhelmed.


The CDC's warning is frank and unnerving. It is an impetus for sober and reasoned action. Stock up on a week's worth of frozen/canned food. Restock your medicine cabinet. Practice proper hygiene. Stay home if you're feeling sick. There is no need, however, to panic. If you're feeling in any way anxious about the coronavirus outbreak, here are five facts to help assuage your worries.

1. The number of cases in China is already falling significantly. Where once the graph of coronavirus cases in China showed an exponential climb, it has now leveled off substantially. Just three weeks ago, China was recording more than 3,000 new cases per day. Officials are now consistently reporting fewer than five hundred, with the number still dropping. Seeing much-improved conditions on the ground, big companies like Starbucks and Apple in China are resuming business activities. The latest (Feb. 29th) World Health Organization (WHO) situation report revealed 435 new cases in China in the previous 24 hours.

2. The vast majority of cases are mild, and the death rate is likely lower than reported. A large study of 72,000 confirmed COVID-19 patients in China found that 81% of cases were mild, another 14% were severe (characterized by difficulty breathing), and 5% were critical. Overall, the death rate was 2.3 percent. More recently, the WHO reported a death rate of 3.8% in China, but noted that it is rapidly falling as standards of care quickly improve. Early on, the city of Wuhan (where the disease originated) was inundated with patients and hospitals could not provide proper care due to overwhelming demand. For Chinese patients whose symptoms started after February 1st, the death rate is just 0.7 percent. (For comparison, the U.S. death rate from 2019-20's annual flu oubtreak is between .06 percent to 0.1 percent. SARS a similar virus to COVID-19, had a death rate of 9.6 percent.) The death rate could be even lower, as very mild cases of COVID-19 that resemble a common cold likely go unreported.

3. Only one out of every 1,000 people in Hubei Province has contracted the coronavirus. There have been 66,337 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China's Hubei Province, where the outbreak began in December. That sounds like a lot, but keep in mind that the population of Hubei is 59,170,000. The province is slightly smaller than Nebraska, but with thirty times as many inhabitants. With this sort of population density, it's a positive sign that just .11% (roughly 1 in 1000) of the population has caught COVID-19. Even if there were 53,000 unreported cases, that would mean only one out of every 500 people in Hubei caught the virus. Given the population density in most other countries is significantly lower than in China, we can expect that the coronavirus will have a much harder time spreading in much of the world.

4. There have been no reported deaths in young children. Though the outbreak has endured for more than nine weeks, there still have been no fatalities in children under the age of nine, with almost all infected simply experiencing cold-like symptoms. Moreover, only 2.4% of cases are in individuals under the age of 18. Kids and teenagers have been surprisingly resistant to the virus.

The death rate for people aged 10 to 39 currently stands at just 0.2 percent. Those genuinely at risk from COVID-19 are the elderly. People aged 80 and up have a 14.8% to 21.9% chance of dying if infected.

5. The world already survived another pandemic just ten years ago. Remember H1N1, more commonly known as Swine Flu? This was the most recent pandemic (besides HIV/AIDS, which is still considered a pandemic). It began in early 2009 and lasted through late 2010. Between April 2009 and April 2010, there were approximately 60.8 million cases, 274,304 hospitalizations, and 12,469 deaths in the United States alone! Globally, it likely infected between 700 million and 1.4 billion people, resulting in 150,000 to 575,000 fatalities. While this loss of life was tragic, more than a decade later, many scarcely remember Swine Flu. The same will hopefully happen with COVID-19.

*Updated March 1st with the latest statistics.

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https://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2020/02/29/five_reasons_you_dont_need_to_panic_about_the_covid-19_coronavirus.html

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These reports are always based upon the assumption that the Chinese reported numbers are real. Anyone who believes those numbers is a complete moron and should be immediately discarded as credible.

One look at an air pollution map tells you everything you need to know about China. The country has completely shut down, there is no manufacturing and no shipping.

Premium said:

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Serious question - why is everyone buying food like we are about to lose electric or run out of clean water?

Shouldn't we be stocking the deep freeze with real meat, etc?

I get non perishables but it seems a bit overboard on the water supply and lack of other things for the fridge / freezer.

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I don't get the water thing either. If it turns out real bad, I think government response will be highly focused on keeping systems operable. To a certain degree, supply lines have to stay up for some businesses. My prep has been around floating panic runs on stores with intent to res up ply between panics. Weeks worth of food, at a minimum, ought to do it I think.

Premium said:

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Serious question - why is everyone buying food like we are about to lose electric or run out of clean water?

Shouldn't we be stocking the deep freeze with real meat, etc?

I get non perishables but it seems a bit overboard on the water supply and lack of other things for the fridge / freezer.

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If people can't go to work and are told to quarantine, how long do you think power plants and water treatment systems can run without human input? If these places lose too many important people, then they can't operate. The worst case scenario is no power and no water.

No shipping huh? Then why did I just get my confirmations and BOLs on 12 containers my plant made that I have coming to N. America?

I would be willing to bet that has more to do with the car traffic than factories.

IrishTxAggie said:

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No shipping huh? Then why did I just get my confirmations and BOLs on 12 containers my plant made that I have coming to N. America?

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You actually trust the Chinese to not lie to you?

AggieChemist said:

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If you weren't prepared you're too late. It's kind of the whole idea of prepping.

I'm no "prepper", but I live on a mountain with a well, a generator, backup fuel, and enough food and ammunition to stay here if I have to.

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I've never been a prepper, until now. I live on an island and have gradually built up my food storage for over a month.

Only as long as people show up to plants. If coal plants stop making power nuclear plants go to diesel backup. Once that runs out cooling systems fail.

Mr.Infectious said:

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How will the poorest of poor countries deal w this?

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The DR is not poor at all by 3rd world standards. Very decent society.

I spent almost 2 years in Haiti and that is going to be a catastrophe. Now, one thing that may be a saving grace in places like Haiti is that for the most part there is a population slant towards youth. But Haiti has 11 million folks with very poor access to health care, the infrastructure there is terrible. But from my take the biggest concern would be the access to food, almost all of anything anyone eats in Haiti is imported. Either from the DR or other places. If the DR goes on short time lock downs and other places quit shipping I would think that it is a matter of maybe 2 weeks before someplace like Haiti starts running out of food. They just don't have the food nor do they grow much of anything.

If things start to breakdown in terms of law and society I think the effects of that might be worse than the actual illness. Especially in marginal places like Haiti.

IrishTxAggie said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Premium said:

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Serious question - why is everyone buying food like we are about to lose electric or run out of clean water?

Shouldn't we be stocking the deep freeze with real meat, etc?

I get non perishables but it seems a bit overboard on the water supply and lack of other things for the fridge / freezer.

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If people can't go to work and are told to quarantine, how long do you think power plants and water treatment systems can run without human input? If these places lose too many important people, then they can't operate. The worst case scenario is no power and no water.

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Power grids and water services would still operate. It's this type of nonsense that drives people into hysteria.

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They would have core groups of people operate them and assuming they take proper precautions, they can operate for a long time. I can assure you though that these plants cannot operate without human input and you can't do these things remotely.

I'm not trying to drive hysteria at all, I'm just being realistic about the situation during a quarantine and a massive outbreak.

And in China a lot of people are stuck away from home as the quarantines were enacted during their holiday. When travel restrictions are lifted it'll be interesting to see what happens.

Wrong.

But yet you'll make a claim that my plants aren't operating in China and shipping isn't happening with zero true input.

Which part?

People started returning last week. I had three people that were stuck due to the travel restrictions. Two got back Wednesday and the other Friday.

IrishTxAggie said:

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But yet you'll make a claim that my plants aren't operating in China and shipping isn't happening zero true input.

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I'm not questioning your direct experience, but overall ocean shipping has fallen off the map.

I get frustrated by both extremes... people who think they don't need to prepare at all one side, and people who think society will shut down on the other. The truth is is in the middle, closer to the side of everything will be fine. This isn't apocalypse... its about mitigating spread of a highly contagious virus, atleast as deady as the flu and atleast twice as contagious. Its not Walking Dead... though, that is exactly what I titled my spreadsheet of items to prepare for this and hurricane season. We have to manage the spread so that it doesn't get out of control. That means a heightened preparedness of seperating from each other. Its serious, but not Day After Tomorrow serious.

YouBet said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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But yet you'll make a claim that my plants aren't operating in China and shipping isn't happening zero true input.

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I'm not questioning your direct experience, but overall ocean shipping has fallen off the map.

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Absolutely it's declined. I'm not arguing that. It's the "no manufacturing and no shipping" that I'm calling bull**** on because it's absolutely not true.

BTW, what is the all-time longest / most viewed thread on F16? We may get there with this.