Quote:
I didn't say anything about it Just being the flu... what the stats show is that as of today, the flu is a far, far, far more a serious threat than COVID-19. There's no reason for the panic, unless we're going to panic about the flu, because that's the real threat to Americans of the two options. When it spreads here, and it will, there will be 10 times less people die from it than the flu this year, but somehow it will dominate the conversation.
No, that's not what the stats show at all.
COVID-19 has started from an initial infection site of 1, and is not widely spread and has
already caused 2,800 some-odd deaths in less than
3 months.
The various strands of influenza are broadly seeded, are prolific, and still
only cause 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide
per year.
If you take the mean of the flu deaths from your numbers, 1 billion cases and 468,000 deaths you get a risk of death of 0.05% if you get infected. Right now depending on the region COVID-19 has a mortality of 1-8%. Case fatality rate of 2%, which is 20 times that of the flu.
The flu is understood. There is treatment for it (tamiflu). We have a vaccine against it. And it represents a small systemic load - the flu doesn't cause a strain on our healthcare system.
This has the risk of causing a temporary load on our healthcare system that could be potentially overwhelming. If that happens, the mortality goes to the high end of the estimate as care declines. That's what we saw in Wuhan.
So, yes, today I have a very low risk of exposure to this disease. But we need to be cognizant that the situation can change rapidly, and if it does, this seem to be a disease with some serious risks associated with it. Much more than the seasonal flu.
