stetson said:

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JJMt said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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JJMt said:

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Check my math...21/821= 0.02557

That's 2.6% fatality rate. That's going to leave a mark even with people recovering in 48 hours....

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Fatalities shouldn't be divided by current cases, but by the number of cases some days ago since the people who died were infected some days ago. The correct number of days is unknown.

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Right. Both in and out of Hubei the 4, 8, and 12 day (meaning taking the number of cases at minus n days from death number) death rates converged. In Hubei it was under 5%, outside it was just below 1%.

The progression seems to be 6-14 days for a case. Using the current number of deaths, going with the case count 4 days ago would be optimistic, and 12 days ago would be pessimistic.

Trying to find cumulative cases over time, but it seems like 4 days ago was 200 cases, and 7 days ago I don't think there were any reported cases. People were probably already sick - or, the disease can progress quite quickly. But the 4 day lag death rate - again, with limited testing early on - is 10%.

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What I don't completely understand is why the death rate seems to vary so much by country. Iran and China I understand, but Italy is a head scratcher. Is its health care sub-standard?

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Apparently, it has something to do with ACE2 cells which vary ethnically. From an article someone posted on this thread...

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Utah residents with Northern and Western European Ancestry?
Americans of African Ancestry in SW USA?

What the hell am I reading?

Texaggie7nine said:

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Amazon.com (AMZN -2.5%) has instructed its employees to defer all nonessential travel, including within the United States, amid the coronavirus threat.

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My Fortune 500 company has done the same. I know HR is considering a domestic travel ban.

Several of my customers have tested their BCRPs in the last week including having much of their workforce work from home for a day.

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What I don't completely understand is why the death rate seems to vary so much by country. Iran and China I understand, but Italy is a head scratcher. Is its health care sub-standaI read that there are

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I read that there are numerous Chinese workers in northern Italy working in the fashion industry.

Mr.Infectious said:

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.Don't shoot the messenger on this one. I don't know any of them or text them to go do this. At some point this becomes unstoppable as the media hypes the story.....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8056301/American-supermarket-shelves-stripped-bare-coronavirus-panic.html

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Panic buying strips store shelves as people stockpile amid coronavirus outbreak with one woman turning her basement into a 'supermarket' and a man buying a YEAR'S supply of food which includes 192 tins of SPAM

Supermarket shelves are starting to be stripped bare as Americans prepare for the spread of coronavirus

People have been panic buying items ever since health authorities warned that Americans should start preparing for domestic acceleration of the virus

Supplies have been flying off the shelves with people posting photos on social media showing the lack of products available in some stores and pharmacies

In California, some Walgreens stores had been completely depleted of cough medicines, cold and flue medications, vaporizers, masks and thermometers

Shoppers in Hawaii were buying up flatbeds of canned goods, bottled water, toilet paper and paper towels from a local Costo

A supermarket aisle in Virginia had been stripped of non-perishables like pasta

U.S. stock indexes fell sharply again at the open on Friday as the coronavirus outbreak raised the alarm for a possible global recession

It comes as thousands of people were buying up face masks and the U.S. government said it is planning to stockpile 300 million masks

Jesse Colombo, who is a financial analyst in Dallas, tweeted a photo of his emergency food pile, including rice, Spam, freeze-dried foods and beans.

'I just bought an additional year's worth of food last night. Everyone needs to have a stockpile of food. I wouldn't even touch stocks (or even gold/silver) before having food in these times,' he tweeted, adding he was 'on edge' with everything that was happening in relation to coronavirus and the economy.

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That is a can every other day. Heart attack waiting to happen.

Sardines or salmon in cans would be much healthier, and not gross like tuna or Spam

wessimo said:

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Meanwhile, Korea is actually trying to keep people informed so that they can avoid infection:

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I'm waiting until we get further along in this deal before I declare we handled something properly or improperly.

The situations in both countries are awfully different as well. One county had a religious cult purposely trying to infect as many people as they can and the government cannot find the members of the cult while the other has systematically brought people back to their home country.

If the US is going to start ramping up any testing, it would be now going forward.

If we come out of this thing not too bad, will you claim the CDC got lucky or managed the situation well?

By the way, I want more transparency and communication. I think we deserve that as American citizens in this situation. I'm just withholding judgment until we see how this plays out here in America.

I dont want to get roasted over here so i postedit on Q thread. Interesting to see the divergence over this issue and the various theories. How those theories play to certain audiences, and what will ultinately happen.

Popcorn time.

txyaloo said:

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Several of my customers have tested their BCRPs in the last week including having much of their workforce work from home for a day.

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What is a BCRP?

I'll say they got lucky, but I don't see them getting lucky unfortunately.

The CDC should be doing thousands of tests a day to identify any cases of community spread.

Korea has tested 81,000+ people. CDC has tested 459.

Why aren't they testing? Either their testing policy is idiotic, they were way behind the ball in building the capability to test, or they are deliberately hiding the truth.

CDC should have already rolled out widespread testing in Cali. They're in high risk mode but not testing?

Buddy of mine who lives in Sacramento took his son in for vaccineS yesterdays. His son is also currently sick. He had to answer questions about travel and that's it. No test

Get masks for your dogs, now!!!

"

• WHO confirmed that a dog in Hong Kong has tested "weakly positive" for COVID-19.
• Hong Kong scientists aren't sure if the dog is actually infected or if it picked up the virus from a contaminated surface.
• Swabs of its nasal and oral cavities tested "weak positive," Hong Kong agriculture officials said."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/a-dog-in-hong-kong-tests-positive-for-the-coronavirus-who-confirms.html

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Out of an abundance of caution, the University is canceling Spring Break trips to Italy for Texas A&M Education Abroad programs after authorities recommended travelers self-quarantine for two weeks.

University leaders are following developments regarding the coronavirus, COVID-19, and will keep our campus community informed.

Any students, faculty and staff traveling to Italy or any other country considered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to be a level 2 risk for coronavirus are required to follow the guidelines to self-quarantine for two weeks, and not return to campus unless they are asymptomatic for that period.

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They are "observing" hundreds of people for possible exposure. Why not just test them? It is insane!

Basically: stop traveling for a month unless absolutely necessary, and minimize unnecessary contact with groups, and self quarantine if ill and we knock this sucker out in a few weeks but millions and millions of individuals will be too selfish to comply or allow others to comply.

aggiepanic95 said:

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stetson said:

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JJMt said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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JJMt said:

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Quote:

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Check my math...21/821= 0.02557

That's 2.6% fatality rate. That's going to leave a mark even with people recovering in 48 hours....

---

Fatalities shouldn't be divided by current cases, but by the number of cases some days ago since the people who died were infected some days ago. The correct number of days is unknown.

---

Right. Both in and out of Hubei the 4, 8, and 12 day (meaning taking the number of cases at minus n days from death number) death rates converged. In Hubei it was under 5%, outside it was just below 1%.

The progression seems to be 6-14 days for a case. Using the current number of deaths, going with the case count 4 days ago would be optimistic, and 12 days ago would be pessimistic.

Trying to find cumulative cases over time, but it seems like 4 days ago was 200 cases, and 7 days ago I don't think there were any reported cases. People were probably already sick - or, the disease can progress quite quickly. But the 4 day lag death rate - again, with limited testing early on - is 10%.

---

What I don't completely understand is why the death rate seems to vary so much by country. Iran and China I understand, but Italy is a head scratcher. Is its health care sub-standard?

---

Apparently, it has something to do with ACE2 cells which vary ethnically. From an article someone posted on this thread...

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Utah residents with Northern and Western European Ancestry?
Americans of African Ancestry in SW USA?

What the hell am I reading?

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ACE2 is a cell receptor that is involved with how some viruses infect a cell. I don't know exactly what the point of the image is, but it would seem that someone is trying to associate risk of infection with genetic variants of ACE2.

The reference on the chart is from 1000genomes, which is a project that looks for genetic variation among human populations. The ancestries are population cohorts that provided the DNA used in the analysis. Many times these get grouped for extrapolation to things like White, African American, Asian, Latino, etc. What you're seeing there is it broken down to more specific groups, which is more useful in minority populations because there's usually fewer groups making up the broad category.

In this case, i would presume they've ranked the groups by likelihood of having ACE2 variants that are more highly associated with whatever the group was investigating (the chart doesn't actually say).

Tanya 93 said:

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Mr.Infectious said:

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...which includes 192 tins of SPAM

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That is a can every other day. Heart attack waiting to happen.

Sardines or salmon in cans would be much healthier, and not gross like tuna or Spam

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wessimo said:

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I'll say they got lucky, but I don't see them getting lucky unfortunately.

The CDC should be doing thousands of tests a day to identify any cases of community spread.

Korea has tested 81,000+ people. CDC has tested 459.

Why aren't they testing? Either their testing policy is idiotic, they were way behind the ball in building the capability to test, or they are deliberately hiding the truth.

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They explained it on today's press conference.

The CDC was having problems with test results. They announced today they figured out the third reagent was giving false results (didn't say which way), and that they could test without the third agent and get accurate results.

Also said they'd have every state testing by end of next week.

Not sure if it was intentional or incompetence, time will tell.

Tanya 93 said:

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Mr.Infectious said:

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.Don't shoot the messenger on this one. I don't know any of them or text them to go do this. At some point this becomes unstoppable as the media hypes the story.....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8056301/American-supermarket-shelves-stripped-bare-coronavirus-panic.html

Quote:

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Panic buying strips store shelves as people stockpile amid coronavirus outbreak with one woman turning her basement into a 'supermarket' and a man buying a YEAR'S supply of food which includes 192 tins of SPAM

Supermarket shelves are starting to be stripped bare as Americans prepare for the spread of coronavirus

People have been panic buying items ever since health authorities warned that Americans should start preparing for domestic acceleration of the virus

Supplies have been flying off the shelves with people posting photos on social media showing the lack of products available in some stores and pharmacies

In California, some Walgreens stores had been completely depleted of cough medicines, cold and flue medications, vaporizers, masks and thermometers

Shoppers in Hawaii were buying up flatbeds of canned goods, bottled water, toilet paper and paper towels from a local Costo

A supermarket aisle in Virginia had been stripped of non-perishables like pasta

U.S. stock indexes fell sharply again at the open on Friday as the coronavirus outbreak raised the alarm for a possible global recession

It comes as thousands of people were buying up face masks and the U.S. government said it is planning to stockpile 300 million masks

Jesse Colombo, who is a financial analyst in Dallas, tweeted a photo of his emergency food pile, including rice, Spam, freeze-dried foods and beans.

'I just bought an additional year's worth of food last night. Everyone needs to have a stockpile of food. I wouldn't even touch stocks (or even gold/silver) before having food in these times,' he tweeted, adding he was 'on edge' with everything that was happening in relation to coronavirus and the economy.

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That is a can every other day. Heart attack waiting to happen.

Sardines or salmon in cans would be much healthier, and not gross like tuna or Spam

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I am kind of weird, in that I like canned sardines (with crackers and cheddar cheese)....but I'd be willing to bet the vast majority of people find canned sardines to be much grosser than spam and canned tuna.

wessimo said:

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I'll say they got lucky, but I don't see them getting lucky unfortunately.

The CDC should be doing thousands of tests a day to identify any cases of community spread.

Korea has tested 81,000+ people. CDC has tested 459.

Why aren't they testing? Either their testing policy is idiotic, they were way behind the ball in building the capability to test, or they are deliberately hiding the truth.

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I want to ask this question before we converse a little further: from when do you think the CDC should have started doing many to thousands of tests a day?

Legit questions -

What do Wuhan, northern Italy, SK, and the diamond Princess have in common?

What is incongruent with pnuemonia and the symptoms discussed? Spcifically what is a symptom used to measure pnuemonia recovery that is shockingly absent in all instances?

.... more questions than answers

When it became clear that it was blowing up in places like Iran, Korea, and Italy.

Did you catch the fact that they have reported zero new tests since the last update on Wednesday?

MouthBQ98 said:

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Basically: stop traveling for a month unless absolutely necessary, and minimize unnecessary contact with groups, and self quarantine if ill and we knock this sucker out in a few weeks but millions and millions of individuals will be too selfish to comply or allow others to comply.

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If I'm not mistaken, you're a fellow gym guy right? If so, you staying away completely? Seems like about the worst place to go in the event of a pandemic or potential one. Times like this make me wish I had a garage setup.

But part of me is hoping that mofo clears out in the coming weeks so it won't be so difficult to get into one of the squat racks.

unrelated to the discussion... but why can't I see linked tweets?

Are you using plugin in chrome like duckduck?

I don't understand your second question about pneumonia recovery. Is that rhetorical? I'd like to know, yes, what symptom is shockingly absent??

yes, duckduck

fixed it, thanks!!

Once this thing gets out in the wild in my region of the country, I would start contingency planning, it would work. Without new hosts, the virus dies. If we really reduced the frequency of human interaction, particularly non-local, we could really slow the spread, but it seems everyone HAS to keep traveling internationally without dire need to do so to areas where this thing is already present.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Basically: stop traveling for a month unless absolutely necessary, and minimize unnecessary contact with groups, and self quarantine if ill and we knock this sucker out in a few weeks but millions and millions of individuals will be too selfish to comply or allow others to comply.

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Spring break + Easter over the next 5-6 weeks. Going to be hard to tell kids and parents their vacation(s) should canceled due to viral infections half a world away. The next 5-10 days will be telling.

You can measure your stages of pnuemonia or other resperatory issues..... and we keep hearing droplet procedure in place... but look at the chartsof data on symptoms. Do the majority of cases have dry cough?

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The USA isn't under that kind of threat...yet, but if we start seeing a few uncontrolled spread cases here, having most everyone take a couple weeks off from unnecessary group activities would greatly impede its spread.

MouthBQ98 said:

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The USA isn't under that kind of threat...yet

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I wish the CDC was actually testing so that we could actually say this with confidence

MouthBQ98 said:

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The USA isn't under that kind of threat...yet, but if we start seeing a few uncontrolled spread cases here, having most everyone take a couple weeks off from unnecessary group activities would greatly impede its spread.

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We don't know that because we have effectively stuck our collective head in the sand and aren't testing.

Most of the cases begin with a dry cough. But pneumonia can also be a complication, a bacterial infection, which would have a productive cough.

. Not understanding your point.

Thats why i ask questions?