I've developed a cough over the past few days.

So, if you live in South Korea, they would test you for COVID-19, if in the us, they would tell you to go home, it's just a cold.

Rapier108 said:

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Mr.Infectious said:

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That blade cuts both ways....

Overly optimistic tweets and reports of miracle cures can be just as dangerous.


48 hour recovery for a team of professional soccer players vs 48 hour recovery of nursing home residents are not the same....

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Yes it does.

Which is why everything should be looked into beyond the tweet or guy on YouTube.

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right - treat all the optimists as Baghdad Bobs and all the alarmists as chicken littles for now

Assuming we survive this (which to me seems exceedingly likely)...In the end this will probably be a great lesson in macro human behavior as well as one in epidemiology

The big print is coming along with vaccine/treatment rumors.

Central banks are going to try to jump start the economy next week w an EpiPen shot to the heart.

UncoverAg00 said:

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This guy says the virus is relatively stable making the antibody effectiveness pretty good... possibly preventing reinfection. This sounds greatly different from other sources that claim other more doom and gloom forecasting. Thus, I hope this guy is right... but who knows.

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Yeah, not sure his source on that part. He has been balanced in my opinion in his previous videos. I think he tends to err on the side of caution, which is what I want in healthcare.

Sid Farkas said:

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Rapier108 said:

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Mr.Infectious said:

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That blade cuts both ways....

Overly optimistic tweets and reports of miracle cures can be just as dangerous.


48 hour recovery for a team of professional soccer players vs 48 hour recovery of nursing home residents are not the same....

---

Yes it does.

Which is why everything should be looked into beyond the tweet or guy on YouTube.

---

right - treat all the optimists as Baghdad Bobs and all the alarmists as chicken littles for now

Assuming we survive this (which to me seems exceedingly likely)...In the end this will probably be a great lesson in macro human behavior as well as one in epidemiology

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And a great opportunity to buy some stocks.

JJMt said:

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Quote:

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Check my math...21/821= 0.02557

That's 2.6% fatality rate. That's going to leave a mark even with people recovering in 48 hours....

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Fatalities shouldn't be divided by current cases, but by the number of cases some days ago since the people who died were infected some days ago. The correct number of days is unknown.

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Right. Both in and out of Hubei the 4, 8, and 12 day (meaning taking the number of cases at minus n days from death number) death rates converged. In Hubei it was under 5%, outside it was just below 1%.

The progression seems to be 6-14 days for a case. Using the current number of deaths, going with the case count 4 days ago would be optimistic, and 12 days ago would be pessimistic.

Trying to find cumulative cases over time, but it seems like 4 days ago was 200 cases, and 7 days ago I don't think there were any reported cases. People were probably already sick - or, the disease can progress quite quickly. But the 4 day lag death rate - again, with limited testing early on - is 10%.

Shanked Punt said:

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I've developed a cough over the past few days.

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Wonderful news!

Picard said:

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Shanked Punt said:

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I've developed a cough over the past few days.

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Wonderful news!

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You could just turn him into Blocked Punt then you won't have to wait 14 days for the virus to do its job.

Picard said:

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Shanked Punt said:

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I've developed a cough over the past few days.

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Wonderful news!

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He was looking for the deplorable responses and you obliged.

k2aggie07 said:

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JJMt said:

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Quote:

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Check my math...21/821= 0.02557

That's 2.6% fatality rate. That's going to leave a mark even with people recovering in 48 hours....

---

Fatalities shouldn't be divided by current cases, but by the number of cases some days ago since the people who died were infected some days ago. The correct number of days is unknown.

---

Right. Both in and out of Hubei the 4, 8, and 12 day (meaning taking the number of cases at minus n days from death number) death rates converged. In Hubei it was under 5%, outside it was just below 1%.

The progression seems to be 6-14 days for a case. Using the current number of deaths, going with the case count 4 days ago would be optimistic, and 12 days ago would be pessimistic.

Trying to find cumulative cases over time, but it seems like 4 days ago was 200 cases, and 7 days ago I don't think there were any reported cases. People were probably already sick - or, the disease can progress quite quickly. But the 4 day lag death rate - again, with limited testing early on - is 10%.

---

A simplistic way to determine mortality rate could be to take the total dead and total cured. Add those together for a total of completed cases, and then calculate mortality rate. Not perfect, but at least ignored newly opened cases that haven't reached a final determination.

Mr.Infectious said:

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If we hookup the CDC w Chick-Fil-A I think we can do the same.

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"Hi, this is Steve with the CDC and it's a wonderful day! How may I help you?"

"COVID-19 test....thanks for the COVID-19 test."

"My pleasure!"

Dunno, early on though you have sample size error and also the likelihood thst you're extremely underreporting total number of cases.

Mr.Infectious said:

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If we hookup the CDC w Chick-Fil-A I think we can do the same.

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"Hey look, zero cases reported on Sunday, it's just the flu!" - Texags science moron

Medical authorities can't pin down the virus' incubation period, but whatever it is, it seems to be considerably longer than 14 days and that could have drastic consequences. It's a Big Deal.

Do they changes gloves between each test? How do they keep from passing it around at the testing drive through station?

Interesting study of 1099 patients in China.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032

5% needed ICU
2.3% needed mechanical ventilation
1.4% died

43.8% had fever upon admission
88.7% had fever at some point of treatment
So that would mean 11.3% never had fever

Would that mean the body didn't recognize the infection, and therefore never provoked a fever? Maybe treatment prevented the fever?

Seems to show fever is not a good indicator of the disease...

Quote:

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Amazon.com (AMZN -2.5%) has instructed its employees to defer all nonessential travel, including within the United States, amid the coronavirus threat.

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So people were asking about real life experiences. Here is the few things I know.

**The one person I knew was taken on a rescue flight with 300+ others back to Bangladesh from Wuhan. It's funny, but Bangladesh isn't usually counted and are not on the world wide counts on most websites. He finished his quarantine and is fine. He is extremely grateful for his country bringing him home.

** My British cousins are out of school, their classmates recently traveled to Northern Italy.

** My March conferences in Germany and Italy: Since I am sick anyways, my trip is cancelled, but I probably would not have attended after this weeks events. Italy keeps reassuring us that this is just a fever, and most people are fine, and that the conference will go on. The American side seems to be hesitating and still mulling it over. The German conference is in the news because government asked them to cancel https://www.itb-berlin.com/Extrapages/HealthInfo/

**the guy on Fox News- hope it is a fluke. I've been following him on Twitter. His wife tested positive and is still in China. Before the rescue flight her father passed from it.

Fed. Powell:

Quote:

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Powell on Virus:

Will use tools and act as appropriate to support the economy

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Weekend and next week should be very interesting.

But I am feeling more nothingburger for Western countries. Hope I'm right.

HTownAg98 said:

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The entire Iranian Cabinet may have been exposed.
https://outline.com/PJytD8

Quote:

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Nor is he the only top official to have been infected: Today, Masoumeh Ebtekar, Iran's vice president and a notoriously cruel member of the group of Iranians who held U.S. diplomats hostage in 1979, announced that she, too, has the disease. According to reports, she met with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and his cabinet just yesterday, potentially exposing the entire senior leadership of Iran to the disease.

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Karma

CDC updated their testing stats. Apparently they have run zero new tests since Wednesday.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html

Hopefully individual states will begin reporting test results since they are supposed to be able to run the tests themselves in the coming days.

HTownAg98 said:

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The entire Iranian Cabinet may have been exposed.
https://outline.com/PJytD8

Quote:

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Nor is he the only top official to have been infected: Today, Masoumeh Ebtekar, Iran's vice president and a notoriously cruel member of the group of Iranians who held U.S. diplomats hostage in 1979, announced that she, too, has the disease. According to reports, she met with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and his cabinet just yesterday, potentially exposing the entire senior leadership of Iran to the disease.

---

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Would it be bad to hope for the most virulent outbreak to happen to those in that room and then it disappear like a fart in the wind?

Meanwhile, Korea is actually trying to keep people informed so that they can avoid infection:

.Don't shoot the messenger on this one. I don't know any of them or text them to go do this. At some point this becomes unstoppable as the media hypes the story.....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8056301/American-supermarket-shelves-stripped-bare-coronavirus-panic.html

Quote:

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Panic buying strips store shelves as people stockpile amid coronavirus outbreak with one woman turning her basement into a 'supermarket' and a man buying a YEAR'S supply of food which includes 192 tins of SPAM

Supermarket shelves are starting to be stripped bare as Americans prepare for the spread of coronavirus

People have been panic buying items ever since health authorities warned that Americans should start preparing for domestic acceleration of the virus

Supplies have been flying off the shelves with people posting photos on social media showing the lack of products available in some stores and pharmacies

In California, some Walgreens stores had been completely depleted of cough medicines, cold and flue medications, vaporizers, masks and thermometers

Shoppers in Hawaii were buying up flatbeds of canned goods, bottled water, toilet paper and paper towels from a local Costo

A supermarket aisle in Virginia had been stripped of non-perishables like pasta

U.S. stock indexes fell sharply again at the open on Friday as the coronavirus outbreak raised the alarm for a possible global recession

It comes as thousands of people were buying up face masks and the U.S. government said it is planning to stockpile 300 million masks

Jesse Colombo, who is a financial analyst in Dallas, tweeted a photo of his emergency food pile, including rice, Spam, freeze-dried foods and beans.

'I just bought an additional year's worth of food last night. Everyone needs to have a stockpile of food. I wouldn't even touch stocks (or even gold/silver) before having food in these times,' he tweeted, adding he was 'on edge' with everything that was happening in relation to coronavirus and the economy.

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JJMt said:

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k2aggie07 said:

---

JJMt said:

---

Quote:

---

Check my math...21/821= 0.02557

That's 2.6% fatality rate. That's going to leave a mark even with people recovering in 48 hours....

---

Fatalities shouldn't be divided by current cases, but by the number of cases some days ago since the people who died were infected some days ago. The correct number of days is unknown.

---

Right. Both in and out of Hubei the 4, 8, and 12 day (meaning taking the number of cases at minus n days from death number) death rates converged. In Hubei it was under 5%, outside it was just below 1%.

The progression seems to be 6-14 days for a case. Using the current number of deaths, going with the case count 4 days ago would be optimistic, and 12 days ago would be pessimistic.

Trying to find cumulative cases over time, but it seems like 4 days ago was 200 cases, and 7 days ago I don't think there were any reported cases. People were probably already sick - or, the disease can progress quite quickly. But the 4 day lag death rate - again, with limited testing early on - is 10%.

---

What I don't completely understand is why the death rate seems to vary so much by country. Iran and China I understand, but Italy is a head scratcher. Is its health care sub-standard?

---

Apparently, it has something to do with ACE2 cells which vary ethnically. From an article someone posted on this thread...

wessimo said:

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Meanwhile, Korea is actually trying to keep people informed so that they can avoid infection:

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South Korea doing things the right way... as they always do, countries need to take notes and follow the South Koreans .. it's good to see they are being upfront with their citizens

Having been through many Florida hurricanes, there is an initial rush of panic buyers and shelves are empty. Then 4 days later restock shipments arrive and there is tons of everything.

This isn't like a hurricane that will pass over though. All these people stocked up, then more shipments will come. There will be plenty for everyone. Power isn't going out, stores aren't near shutting down. Roads will be open. I'm not too worried about having food. More worried about getting sick.

The problem is that China is probably a big source of shipments... and they're preoccupied right now.