Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Rapier108 said:

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Boo Weekley said:

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KorbinDallas said:

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How many cases has Italy exported? Time to stop flights yet?

---

I want to know, on average, how many people would likely eventually be infected from one person with Corona Virus flying coach? You come into direct contact with the food/bev cart people, who come into direct contact with probably 3/4 of the plain. Not looking good for the people directly next to you. I prob won't be flying for a while...

---

Transmission of airborne diseases on commercial aircraft has been shown to be very low due to the air circulation system's HEPA filters. This has been true for the flu, SARS, MERS, etc.

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The problem is not the airplane, it's the airport itself. You're in close proximity to many other people for a long period of time before the flight with many people touching your stuff during security and bag checks.

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excellent point. time to invest in tyvex and a respirator.

Boo Weekley said:

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Rapier108 said:

---

Boo Weekley said:

---

KorbinDallas said:

---

How many cases has Italy exported? Time to stop flights yet?

---

I want to know, on average, how many people would likely eventually be infected from one person with Corona Virus flying coach? You come into direct contact with the food/bev cart people, who come into direct contact with probably 3/4 of the plain. Not looking good for the people directly next to you. I prob won't be flying for a while...

---

Transmission of airborne diseases on commercial aircraft has been shown to be very low due to the air circulation system's HEPA filters. This has been true for the flu, SARS, MERS, etc.

---

But can't this be spread pretty easily by physical contact? Think about how many people you come into contact with indirectly through the flight attendants passing our snacks/drinks and taking trash. The Virus would have to be pretty resilient, but isn't this one supposed to be?

---

The flu is pretty resilient on surfaces, and it loves to float in the air. Can't say how tough SARS and MERS are, but I would guess they're not wimps that die off in 20 seconds.

The people in the most danger would be someone sitting right next to the person, and perhaps a row in front.

I'd be more worried about picking up the a virus while hanging around the airport, with thousands of people all over the place, than on the flight itself.

Given we haven't seen people who were on the flights that brought the first few cases (not the evacuation flights) to the US having gotten sick, it would seem to support the risk is low. Enough time has passed where someone infected on one or more of those flights would be sick now.

This is all based on what I know about how aircraft ventilation systems are designed. The manufactures and airlines have gone to great lengths to design or retrofit aircraft to reduce the risk of disease transmission aboard as much as possible.

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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Rapier108 said:

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Boo Weekley said:

---

KorbinDallas said:

---

How many cases has Italy exported? Time to stop flights yet?

---

I want to know, on average, how many people would likely eventually be infected from one person with Corona Virus flying coach? You come into direct contact with the food/bev cart people, who come into direct contact with probably 3/4 of the plain. Not looking good for the people directly next to you. I prob won't be flying for a while...

---

Transmission of airborne diseases on commercial aircraft has been shown to be very low due to the air circulation system's HEPA filters. This has been true for the flu, SARS, MERS, etc.

---

The problem is not the airplane, it's the airport itself. You're in close proximity to many other people for a long period of time before the flight with many people touching your stuff during security and bag checks.

---

Too many common surfaces for potential exchange of the virus within a short period of time following initial contamination. Then you have cross transfer from one "hub" location to other "hub" locations. Things have the potential to get out of hand in a hurry.

Sine poena nulla lex.

black_hat_ag said:

---

Nuclear Scramjet said:

---

Rapier108 said:

---

Boo Weekley said:

---

KorbinDallas said:

---

How many cases has Italy exported? Time to stop flights yet?

---

I want to know, on average, how many people would likely eventually be infected from one person with Corona Virus flying coach? You come into direct contact with the food/bev cart people, who come into direct contact with probably 3/4 of the plain. Not looking good for the people directly next to you. I prob won't be flying for a while...

---

Transmission of airborne diseases on commercial aircraft has been shown to be very low due to the air circulation system's HEPA filters. This has been true for the flu, SARS, MERS, etc.

---

The problem is not the airplane, it's the airport itself. You're in close proximity to many other people for a long period of time before the flight with many people touching your stuff during security and bag checks.

---

excellent point. time to invest in tyvex and a respirator.

---

That's probably a good idea in general, most airports are disgusting.

Yep, was just typing the same thing about airport vs. aircraft.

I caught the flu once at DFW (had to be given the time frame from that flight to getting sick) and it was the worst case ever. My doctor thought it was probably a foreign strain given how sick I was and for how long. It was well outside the normal US flu season, and that year's flu season had been very mild with a good vaccine. Ran a fever of 103, often spiking to 105, for 5 straight days. Missed 10 days of work (usually only miss 5-7 with the flu) and lost over 20lbs. Didn't feel normal again for almost 3 months.

Rossticus said:

---

Nuclear Scramjet said:

---

Rapier108 said:

---

Boo Weekley said:

---

KorbinDallas said:

---

How many cases has Italy exported? Time to stop flights yet?

---

I want to know, on average, how many people would likely eventually be infected from one person with Corona Virus flying coach? You come into direct contact with the food/bev cart people, who come into direct contact with probably 3/4 of the plain. Not looking good for the people directly next to you. I prob won't be flying for a while...

---

Transmission of airborne diseases on commercial aircraft has been shown to be very low due to the air circulation system's HEPA filters. This has been true for the flu, SARS, MERS, etc.

---

The problem is not the airplane, it's the airport itself. You're in close proximity to many other people for a long period of time before the flight with many people touching your stuff during security and bag checks.

---

Too many common surfaces for potential exchange of the virus within a short period of time following initial contamination. Then you have cross transfer from one "hub" location to other "hub" locations. Things have the potential to get out of hand in a hurry.

---

Exactly, especially when you consider just how damn dirty most airports are and how unhygienic most people tend to be. I'm not a germaphobe but using airport bathrooms always gives me pause because most of them are so damn dirty.

Boo Weekley said:

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Wonder if this virus is vulnerable to alcohol exposure? Maybe we should all maintain elevated BAC for the time being? Only thing that will make me feel safe at rodeo cookoff this wknd.

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In that case I've been way ahead out ahead of this since age 20.

Rapier108 said:

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Yep, was just typing the same thing about airport vs. aircraft.

I caught the flu once at DFW (had to be given the time frame from that flight to getting sick) and it was the worst case ever. My doctor thought it was probably a foreign strain given how sick I was and for how long. It was well outside the normal US flu season, and that year's flu season had been very mild with a good vaccine. Ran a fever of 103, often spiking to 105, for 5 straight days. Missed 10 days of work (usually only miss 5-7 with the flu) and lost over 20lbs. Didn't feel normal again for almost 3 months.

---

Ouch. I'm so damn glad I don't have to travel for work with my job and can easily work from home if need be.

Boo Weekley said:

---

Wonder if this virus is vulnerable to alcohol exposure? Maybe we should all maintain elevated BAC for the time being? Only thing that will make me feel safe at rodeo cookoff this wknd.

---

I wonder if alcohol and doxycycline work well together.

China literately burning money now...literately!

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3050868/fresh-cash-old-china-central-bank-branch-destroy-banknotes

Quote:

---

China central bank branch to destroy banknotes from coronavirus-hit sectors

• Paper currency collected from hospitals and buses among those targeted by the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) in a public health push
• Other notes will be disinfected and stored for 14 days before going back into circulation

The Guangzhou branch of China's central bank says it will destroy all banknotes collected by hospitals, wet markets and buses to ensure the safety of cash transactions as the country battles a coronavirus outbreak.
Financial news outlet Caixin reported on Saturday that officials at the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) branch in the southern city ordered that all paper currency from sectors with high exposure to the
coronavirus
be withdrawn for destruction.
Commercial banks in the province should put banknotes from these sectors aside, disinfect them and hand them in to the PBOC.
The order comes after Fan Yifei, deputy governor of the central bank, said on Saturday that 600 billion yuan (US$85.6 billion) of new banknotes had been distributed throughout the country since January 17, including 4 billion yuan (US$572 million) in fresh notes sent to Wuhan at the centre of the outbreak before the Lunar New Year.

---

scottimus said:

---

China literately burning money now...literately!

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3050868/fresh-cash-old-china-central-bank-branch-destroy-banknotes

Quote:

---

China central bank branch to destroy banknotes from coronavirus-hit sectors

• Paper currency collected from hospitals and buses among those targeted by the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) in a public health push
• Other notes will be disinfected and stored for 14 days before going back into circulation

The Guangzhou branch of China's central bank says it will destroy all banknotes collected by hospitals, wet markets and buses to ensure the safety of cash transactions as the country battles a coronavirus outbreak.
Financial news outlet Caixin reported on Saturday that officials at the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) branch in the southern city ordered that all paper currency from sectors with high exposure to the
coronavirus
be withdrawn for destruction.
Commercial banks in the province should put banknotes from these sectors aside, disinfect them and hand them in to the PBOC.
The order comes after Fan Yifei, deputy governor of the central bank, said on Saturday that 600 billion yuan (US$85.6 billion) of new banknotes had been distributed throughout the country since January 17, including 4 billion yuan (US$572 million) in fresh notes sent to Wuhan at the centre of the outbreak before the Lunar New Year.

---

---

They can always print notes to replace those they burn so it's not like they are throwing away value.

Again,

Can anyone speak to divergence in these graphs?

https://nextstrain.org/ncov?l=unrooted

Sine poena nulla lex.

Rapier108 said:

---

Yep, was just typing the same thing about airport vs. aircraft.

I caught the flu once at DFW (had to be given the time frame from that flight to getting sick) and it was the worst case ever. My doctor thought it was probably a foreign strain given how sick I was and for how long. It was well outside the normal US flu season, and that year's flu season had been very mild with a good vaccine. Ran a fever of 103, often spiking to 105, for 5 straight days. Missed 10 days of work (usually only miss 5-7 with the flu) and lost over 20lbs. Didn't feel normal again for almost 3 months.

---

that sounds like mono

scottimus said:

---

Can anyone tell me what divergence and mutation means in these layouts?

e.g. Comparing the divergence of the latest UC-Davis Case with some of the original Wuhan Cases listed.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov?l=unrooted

---

I am not a virologist but from that page:

his phylogeny shows evolutionary relationships of HCoV-19 viruses from the ongoing novel coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. All samples are still closely related with few mutations relative to a common ancestor, suggesting a shared common ancestor some time in Nov-Dec 2019. This indicates an initial human infection in Nov-Dec 2019 followed by sustained human-to-human transmission leading to sampled infections.


So it does not seem to have significant mutations at this point.

scottimus said:

---

Again,

Can anyone speak to divergence in these graphs?

https://nextstrain.org/ncov?l=unrooted

---

At a very high-level, this is the summation, with some relevant added context:

• The researchers obtained the original gene sequence of nCoV / SARS-CoV-2 (the virus) / COVID-19 (the disease). They compared this original gene sequence to gene sequences of SARS-CoV-2 from COVID-19 confirmed patients that were obtained at later dates in different locations.
• Mutations regularly occur in RNA/DNA when the RNA/DNA is replicated. SARS-CoV-2 is no different in this regard.
• By comparing the different gene sequences to one another and the original gene sequence they are able to see both similarities and differences. Differences arise when the nucleotides (A, U, G, & C) in the RNA of the virus change; i.e., the virus mutates.
• Looking at similarities and differences allows them to create a phylogeny, or 'family tree' that shows how the different samples of virus are likely related to one another, including lines of descent. Once a mutation occurs, all of its descendants will also carry that mutation.
• You can compare the phylogeny (again, read: virus 'family tree') to where the samples were obtained around the world. This can give you some idea as to how the virus spread. As an example: A virus originates in Country A, and is later found in Country B, then in Country C. Upon analysis of the genome, you find that samples in Countries B & C share a mutation not found in Country A. You can logically conclude that the person who brought the virus to Country C acquired the disease in Country B, not Country A.
• The researcher's analysis concluded that all samples of SARS-CoV-2 appear to be descended from a single source. This is consistent with the assumption that it made a single jump from an animal vector to humans. If there were multiple sources, you would expect to see more baseline deviation, which would imply it was introduced to human populations at different points in time.
• The analysis also showed few variations between the different samples, and few total variations (max 7). The limited variation and objectively few number of mutations strongly indicates that they all share a recent common ancestor, which is consistent with the assumption that it first infected humans late in 2019.

gigemtrev said:

---

Rapier108 said:

---

Yep, was just typing the same thing about airport vs. aircraft.

I caught the flu once at DFW (had to be given the time frame from that flight to getting sick) and it was the worst case ever. My doctor thought it was probably a foreign strain given how sick I was and for how long. It was well outside the normal US flu season, and that year's flu season had been very mild with a good vaccine. Ran a fever of 103, often spiking to 105, for 5 straight days. Missed 10 days of work (usually only miss 5-7 with the flu) and lost over 20lbs. Didn't feel normal again for almost 3 months.

---

that sounds like mono

---

Didn't have the symptoms of mono and it was a positive flu test. Doc said he was going to see about sending it off off for additional testing to see what strain it was since it was so bad and was unusual for late spring/early summer. I never asked him if he did.

I wasn't sick for 3 months, just didn't have a lot of energy. My body spent everything it had fighting off that bugger that it left me wasted. On the positive side, didn't get the flu for 5 years after that.

Mr.Infectious said:

---

---

Anyone seeing this reported elsewhere? Nothing on TV saying it's happening.

Pumpkinhead said:

---

queso1 said:

---

Hoping for a serious answer. I'm a bit unnerved about this whole thing, but I'm reluctant to go full blown panic. Does anyone have any links to web forums or other media from pig flu, sars, etc? I'd like to see a comparison to determine if we are overreacting.

---

This is a serious issue that is going to cause some significant economic damage and maybe help tip some countries into a recession, but pandemics have happened before and will happen again.

---

Honestly, my biggest worry in terms of collateral damage, is that this ends up being Trump's Katrina, and the hysteria primes our population to accept some whacko like Warren or Bernie who do their Prof. Harold Hill act and say how only massive government (and a UHC system) could solve this problem.

Rapier108 said:

---

gigemtrev said:

---

Rapier108 said:

---

Yep, was just typing the same thing about airport vs. aircraft.

I caught the flu once at DFW (had to be given the time frame from that flight to getting sick) and it was the worst case ever. My doctor thought it was probably a foreign strain given how sick I was and for how long. It was well outside the normal US flu season, and that year's flu season had been very mild with a good vaccine. Ran a fever of 103, often spiking to 105, for 5 straight days. Missed 10 days of work (usually only miss 5-7 with the flu) and lost over 20lbs. Didn't feel normal again for almost 3 months.

---

that sounds like mono

---

Didn't have the symptoms of mono and it was a positive flu test. Doc said he was going to see about sending it off off for additional testing to see what strain it was since it was so bad and was unusual for late spring/early summer. I never asked him if he did.

I wasn't sick for 3 months, just didn't have a lot of energy. My body spent everything it had fighting off that bugger that it left me wasted. On the positive side, didn't get the flu for 5 years after that.

---

What year was that? I picked up the same thing in 2013. I've never been so sick in my life. I felt like a shell of myself after I finally beat it (over a week later).

medag13 said:

---

scottimus said:

---

Again,

Can anyone speak to divergence in these graphs?

https://nextstrain.org/ncov?l=unrooted

---

At a very high-level, this is the summation, with some relevant added context:

• The researchers obtained the original gene sequence of nCoV / SARS-CoV-2 (the virus) / COVID-19 (the disease). They compared this original gene sequence to gene sequences of SARS-CoV-2 from COVID-19 confirmed patients that were obtained at later dates in different locations.
• Mutations regularly occur in RNA/DNA when the RNA/DNA is replicated. SARS-CoV-2 is no different in this regard.
• By comparing the different gene sequences to one another and the original gene sequence they are able to see both similarities and differences. Differences arise when the nucleotides (A, U, G, & C) in the RNA of the virus change; i.e., the virus mutates.
• Looking at similarities and differences allows them to create a phylogeny, or 'family tree' that shows how the different samples of virus are likely related to one another, including lines of descent. Once a mutation occurs, all of its descendants will also carry that mutation.
• You can compare the phylogeny (again, read: virus 'family tree') to where the samples were obtained around the world. This can give you some idea as to how the virus spread. As an example: A virus originates in Country A, and is later found in Country B, then in Country C. Upon analysis of the genome, you find that samples in Countries B & C share a mutation not found in Country A. You can logically conclude that the person who brought the virus to Country C acquired the disease in Country B, not Country A.
• The researcher's analysis concluded that all samples of SARS-CoV-2 appear to be descended from a single source. This is consistent with the assumption that it made a single jump from an animal vector to humans. If there were multiple sources, you would expect to see more baseline deviation, which would imply it was introduced to human populations at different points in time.
• The analysis also showed few variations between the different samples, and few total variations (max 7). The limited variation and objectively few number of mutations strongly indicates that they all share a recent common ancestor, which is consistent with the assumption that it first infected humans late in 2019.

---

Sweet,

So from what I am seeing:
Hubei case- No of descendants 8, No nucleotide mutations, Divergence = 1.036 e^(-12)

How does that compare with the new:
"Community Cali" case- Divergence = 1.008

?

Any thoughts?

https://m.theepochtimes.com/dominican-republic-rejects-cruise-ship-over-virus-fears-as-another-allowed-to-dock-in-mexico_3253485.html

Nuclear Scramjet said:

---

Rapier108 said:

---

Boo Weekley said:

---

KorbinDallas said:

---

How many cases has Italy exported? Time to stop flights yet?

---

I want to know, on average, how many people would likely eventually be infected from one person with Corona Virus flying coach? You come into direct contact with the food/bev cart people, who come into direct contact with probably 3/4 of the plain. Not looking good for the people directly next to you. I prob won't be flying for a while...

---

Transmission of airborne diseases on commercial aircraft has been shown to be very low due to the air circulation system's HEPA filters. This has been true for the flu, SARS, MERS, etc.

---

The problem is not the airplane, it's the airport itself. You're in close proximity to many other people for a long period of time before the flight with many people touching your stuff during security and bag checks.

---

Maybe this is our chance to end the absurd boondoggle that is the TSA.
Let's start calling it the Typhoid Spreading Agency.

Transmission from animal vector is concerning depending on HOW said transmission occurred.

eric76 said:

---

Boo Weekley said:

---

Wonder if this virus is vulnerable to alcohol exposure? Maybe we should all maintain elevated BAC for the time being? Only thing that will make me feel safe at rodeo cookoff this wknd.

---

I wonder if alcohol and doxycycline work well together.

---

No significant interaction.
Both can do harsh things to digestive tract lining, and screw with the intestinal flora biome, so you might end up with heartburn/reflux. But you can drink and take doxy. But that is probably not true for all antibiotics.

(source: me)

scottimus said:

---

Again,

Can anyone speak to divergence in these graphs?

https://nextstrain.org/ncov?l=unrooted

---

wannaggie said:

---

eric76 said:

---

Boo Weekley said:

---

Wonder if this virus is vulnerable to alcohol exposure? Maybe we should all maintain elevated BAC for the time being? Only thing that will make me feel safe at rodeo cookoff this wknd.

---

I wonder if alcohol and doxycycline work well together.

---

No significant interaction.
Both can do harsh things to digestive tract lining, and screw with the intestinal flora biome, so you might end up with heartburn/reflux. But you can drink and take doxy. But that is probably not true for all antibiotics.

(source: me)

---

Thanks. I'm getting over the worst sinus infection I've ever had. I'll run out of doxcycline on Saturday.

Good buying opportunity. It may correct, but it will eventually recover. Many other fundamentals are pretty sound.

wannaggie said:

---

Pumpkinhead said:

---

queso1 said:

---

Hoping for a serious answer. I'm a bit unnerved about this whole thing, but I'm reluctant to go full blown panic. Does anyone have any links to web forums or other media from pig flu, sars, etc? I'd like to see a comparison to determine if we are overreacting.

---

This is a serious issue that is going to cause some significant economic damage and maybe help tip some countries into a recession, but pandemics have happened before and will happen again.

---

Honestly, my biggest worry in terms of collateral damage, is that this ends up being Trump's Katrina, and the hysteria primes our population to accept some whacko like Warren or Bernie who do their Prof. Harold Hill act and say how only massive government (and a UHC system) could solve this problem.

---

It's working really well in China! (Meant to add smiley).
More government and more taxes is the liberal answer to everything.