Based on modelling and stats developed 2 weeks ago by Peak Prosperity the numbers infected and dead in Wuhan grow rapidly through at least April. This is only getting started if they are correct. I haven't seen their updated numbers.Nuclear Scramjet said:
19 makeshift hospitals? Wtf?
China Coronavirus Outbreak Spreads; Hundreds Infected As Human-To-Human Transmission
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Last: 3 mo ago by Stat Monitor Repairman
Last I saw 78,000+ infected and building enough hospitals to house another 30,000+ leads me to believe it will be months before things get better. Plus they already have staff shortages.
Spoke to someone in Shanghai that said no one is working still yet the company says everything is back to normal. Everyone trying to cover up how bad it is to safe face or business.
No I am thinking about what I should invest in with this not being an acute issue.
Spoke to someone in Shanghai that said no one is working still yet the company says everything is back to normal. Everyone trying to cover up how bad it is to safe face or business.
No I am thinking about what I should invest in with this not being an acute issue.
We were overdue for this conspiracy lunacy to come up again.RAB91 said:
DCIAP
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Another 3rd party update from my mandarin speaking friend:
The Chinese MD in a large city (5+million) has multiple confirmed cases under her care, yet officially this particular city has no cases. They don't have enough PPE for the healthcare workers, and as far as I know the dr still sleeps on a couch in the hospital for 4 hours a night.
The party member contact is saying that they are over 1 billion in some form of quarantine.
My take:
China is scared and desperate to keep the economy going. They are going to sacrifice whatever/whoever to try to keep thing afloat. They can't keep their healthcare workers protected so it's all downhill from there.
The Chinese MD in a large city (5+million) has multiple confirmed cases under her care, yet officially this particular city has no cases. They don't have enough PPE for the healthcare workers, and as far as I know the dr still sleeps on a couch in the hospital for 4 hours a night.
The party member contact is saying that they are over 1 billion in some form of quarantine.
My take:
China is scared and desperate to keep the economy going. They are going to sacrifice whatever/whoever to try to keep thing afloat. They can't keep their healthcare workers protected so it's all downhill from there.
I'll type it slower for you this time.Rapier108 said:We were overdue for this conspiracy lunacy to come up again.RAB91 said:
DCIAP
D C I A P
Doesn't make it any less dumb.RAB91 said:I'll type it slower for you this time.Rapier108 said:We were overdue for this conspiracy lunacy to come up again.RAB91 said:
DCIAP
D C I A P
Same as claiming Tom Clancy predicted 9/11.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Methinks we need an early summer this year.
Am I the only one who perma-ignored Rapier because of this thread?
Market forces will take over before we get to a worst case scenario in the US. With the right conditions and ideal financial circumstances, capitalism can do some amazing things.
Granted there may be some rationing and we'll be paying out the ass for antibiotics and insulin, but the market will fill the void.
This will ultimately be a good thing for this country but getting through the crisis portion has the potential to really suck.
Granted there may be some rationing and we'll be paying out the ass for antibiotics and insulin, but the market will fill the void.
This will ultimately be a good thing for this country but getting through the crisis portion has the potential to really suck.
I prefer DIAF
The population of China is just under 1.4 billion.Quote:
The party member contact is saying that they are over 1 billion in some form of quarantine.
Does not pass the smell test.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Don't care one iota if you ignored me.
And not sorry if I'm not one of the people who are wearing tin foil, or acting like they want this to be a global disaster with billions dead just so they can yell "see, see, see I was right!" on some forum, or just because they want to watch the world burn.
And not sorry if I'm not one of the people who are wearing tin foil, or acting like they want this to be a global disaster with billions dead just so they can yell "see, see, see I was right!" on some forum, or just because they want to watch the world burn.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
I don't know, but why ignore anyone?Bobcat06 said:
Am I the only one who perma-ignored Rapier because of this thread?
I personally prefer people to challenge each other. It keeps people posting links and sticking more to fact than completely jumping off the rails.
Someone posted a rumor that 1 billion are quarantined currently. Rapier challenged that because the population of China is 1.4 billion and doesn't seem correct upon initial reading.
Why would you want that challenge to be ignored?
You are quick to dismiss any "doomsday" information, and ridicule anyone who posts it.Rapier108 said:The population of China is just under 1.4 billion.Quote:
The party member contact is saying that they are over 1 billion in some form of quarantine.
Does not pass the smell test.
I am curious as to what you predict will happen in the next few months, both here and abroad.
Seems like this is accelerating worldwide now yet the markets are still shrugging it off like it is NBD. Strange.
I'm not making predictions.
I will criticize any prediction/theory such as this one claiming this was a Soviet era Biopreparat weapon with a 100% kill rate or that Dean Koontz predicted this.
We get way too much crap posted from random Twitter accounts with absolutely zero verification if the account is legit, or if it is just someone stirring the pot. Same for the numerous YouTube videos, Reddit, 4Chan, or 8Chan posts we keep seeing. Then there are posts which make claims and don't even try to source stuff.
I really don't care if it offends people since that is not the intent. People need to step back from the ledge and apply even a small amount of critical thinking.
I will criticize any prediction/theory such as this one claiming this was a Soviet era Biopreparat weapon with a 100% kill rate or that Dean Koontz predicted this.
We get way too much crap posted from random Twitter accounts with absolutely zero verification if the account is legit, or if it is just someone stirring the pot. Same for the numerous YouTube videos, Reddit, 4Chan, or 8Chan posts we keep seeing. Then there are posts which make claims and don't even try to source stuff.
I really don't care if it offends people since that is not the intent. People need to step back from the ledge and apply even a small amount of critical thinking.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
This is a fast developing situation with a lot of unknowns, so we're relying on a lot of anecdotal evidence and first hand account. Everyone should be skeptical of everything that it posted, but all of it is still worth considering external information regardless how fringe it may be (bioweapon, HIV strands, etc). That information needs to be examined and analyzed to determine how legitimate it is so that we can make the best decision in how to prepare for this thing.
Rapier doesn't post external information. All he does is insult people who do. He brings nothing to this thread.
Rapier doesn't post external information. All he does is insult people who do. He brings nothing to this thread.
coastsrs said:Nuclear Scramjet said:
When memes become reality.
China probably released this virus with a cure already in hand and is just doing some trimming on the world population. Come in and save the day on their own timeline /tinhat
I wonder how many Party Central Committee members have been infected?
“If you’re going to have crime it should at least be organized crime”
-Havelock Vetinari
-Havelock Vetinari
wessimo said:
Seems like this is accelerating worldwide now yet the markets are still shrugging it off like it is NBD. Strange.
Flight to safety in the U.S. dollar / economy.
Currently the cases outside of China are increasing ten-fold every 20 days. Just add another 0 to the end of the number every 20 days, it is currently 1000..........10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 1,000,000,000 in 120 days, if the trend continues.
You don't believe that?
You don't believe that?
wessimo said:
Seems like this is accelerating worldwide now yet the markets are still shrugging it off like it is NBD. Strange.
It's because flu season will be wrapping up in a few months, and markets know whatever drop off in production there is in China isn't permanent.
Also most people can put this "outbreak" in perspective. The Coronavirus is a variant of the flu. The Coronavirus has infected how many? 300K-400K max mainly in China? The common flu has infected 41 million and killed 41K this year. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
If the Coronavirus wasn't new nobody would care
VaultingChemist said:
Currently the cases outside of China are increasing ten-fold every 20 days. Just add another 0 to the end of the number every 20 days, it is currently 1000..........10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 1,000,000,000 in 120 days, if the trend continues.
You don't believe that?
I thought that it should slow down once the weather starts getting warmer... so wouldn't the rate slow down here in the next month or 2?
If the flu was killing 1 million people, and causing 5 million to be hospitalized for two weeks, we would care a whole lot.Quote:
If the Coronavirus wasn't new nobody would care
rgag12 said:wessimo said:
Seems like this is accelerating worldwide now yet the markets are still shrugging it off like it is NBD. Strange.
It's because flu season will be wrapping up in a few months, and markets know whatever drop off in production there is in China isn't permanent.
Also most people can put this "outbreak" in perspective. The Coronavirus is a variant of the flu. The Coronavirus has infected how many? 300K-400K max mainly in China? The common flu has infected 41 million and killed 41K this year. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
If the Coronavirus wasn't new nobody would care
#justtheflu
VaultingChemist said:If the flu was killing 1 million people, and causing 5 million to be hospitalized for two weeks, we would care a whole lot.Quote:
If the Coronavirus wasn't new nobody would care
It's not, you're being an alarmist.
You would hope it would, but we don't really know. Singapore seems to have their outbreak under control, so that is really encouraging.UncoverAg00 said:VaultingChemist said:
I thought that it should slow down once the weather starts getting warmer... so wouldn't the rate slow down here in the next month or 2?
VaultingChemist said:You would hope it would, but we don't really know. Singapore seems to have their outbreak under control, so that is really encouraging.UncoverAg00 said:VaultingChemist said:
I thought that it should slow down once the weather starts getting warmer... so wouldn't the rate slow down here in the next month or 2?
Yep I am surprised by the Hong Kong and Singapore #s. Great news so far.
You don't have to admit you have a pandemic here in the U.S. if you don't have kits to test.
What an incompetent pack of idiots we have running CDC. Bunch of Obama-era holdovers who apparently are unqualified to even run a lemonade stand.
We now have state health departments reaching out to Japan for test kits for this.
https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/02/21/schatz-calls-repeated-delays-coronavirus-test-kits-hawaii-totally-unacceptable/
What an incompetent pack of idiots we have running CDC. Bunch of Obama-era holdovers who apparently are unqualified to even run a lemonade stand.
We now have state health departments reaching out to Japan for test kits for this.
https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/02/21/schatz-calls-repeated-delays-coronavirus-test-kits-hawaii-totally-unacceptable/
Quote:
The botched coronavirus test kits that were sent to Hawaii now have to be re-manufactured.
U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz says he's been told by CDC that the new test kits won't be ready until mid-March.
Of course the flu is not. You brought up the "what if" scenario.rgag12 said:VaultingChemist said:If the flu was killing 1 million people, and causing 5 million to be hospitalized for two weeks, we would care a whole lot.Quote:
If the Coronavirus wasn't new nobody would care
It's not, you're being an alarmist.
But if 41 million are infected with the coronavirus, those are the resulting statistics, based on several epidemiology studies that were published recently.
If you don't believe in the science and the math, explain to me where it is incorrect.
Nuclear Scramjet said:Bobcat06 said:
500,000 infected?
500,000 is probably a low end. You don't use the draconian tactics China is using unless you're facing an existential threat. The only things they could do that would be more draconian is immediately shooting anyone infected or even further dropping napalm on buildings to burn it out or even nukes on cities.
I mean they are freaking welding doors shut, you can't possibly think they are doing this for the small amount they are reporting.
I won't dispute your numbers, but you must be thinking abut a different China than me.