Looks like the R0 value is going way up.

Quote:

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Dozens of protesters in a Ukrainian town have attacked buses carrying evacuees from coronavirus-hit China.

The evacuees were brought to a health spa in Novi Sanzhary, in the central Poltava region, where they will be held in quarantine for 14 days.

President Volodymyr Zelensky urged the protesters to show empathy.

On Thursday, 45 Ukrainians and 27 foreign nationals were flown from Wuhan in China, the epicentre of the deadly outbreak, to Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine.

Six buses then drove them to the health spa in Novi Sanzhary, where they were met by demonstrators lighting bonfires and hurling stones.

Armoured personnel carriers were seen deployed in the small town.

After a tense stand-off, police and the national guard manage to unblock the road to the building where the evacuees would be spending 14 days.

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-51581805?__twitter_impression=true

Finally getting some real numbers or just over hyped?

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/20/807745305/coronavirus-2-princess-diamond-cruise-ship-passengers-die-after-contracting-covi

"Coronavirus: South Korea Says COVID-19 Cases Doubled In 24 Hours

The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in South Korea has doubled in just 24 hours, to 104 from 51, the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday. Many of the new cases of coronavirus are linked to a Christian sect in Daegu, a city in southern South Korea.

Korea's CDC says a woman who became the country's 31st confirmed patient on Feb. 18 had attended services held by a religious group called the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, The Temple of the Tabernacle of the Testimony.

The woman, who was born in 1959, had visited Wuhan, China where the novel coronavirus was first discovered in December the KCDC says. It adds that she was reported to have 1,160 contacts by far the most of anyone on its list of patients.

"The church has shut down" because of the outbreak, NPR's Anthony Kuhn reports from Seoul. "Daegu has closed some public facilities," he adds. "A U.S. Army garrison in Daegu restricted travel in and out of the base and imposed a quarantine on personnel who had visited the church.""

daggertx said:

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PJYoung said:

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Nothing like UNCONFIRMED RUMORS

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The only reason I give that airplay is that officially Iran has announced 4 deaths and 18 cases. There is 0% chance that ratio is true IMO.

It is about to get very ugly in Iran. China 2.0.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

PJYoung said:

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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

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is that exponential or linear? I don't remember algebra very well.

DSAg44 said:

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PJYoung said:

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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

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is that exponential or linear? I don't remember algebra very well.

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Mathematically that is a monotonically aroused function.

I noticed the US jumped from 16 to 27. Hmmm.. That can not be from the Cruise Ship right (or it would have jumped by 14 and they would be double counted).

Air travel is a great way to spread this virus quickly to every country. Screening for fever is going to miss 75% of those infected.

Robk said:

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I noticed the US jumped from 16 to 27. Hmmm.. That can not be from the Cruise Ship right (or it would have jumped by 14 and they would be double counted).

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It is from the cruise ship. The test results from Japan didn't come in until late yesterday.

DSAg44 said:

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PJYoung said:

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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

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is that exponential or linear? I don't remember algebra very well.

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Looking at buy opportunity, classic shoulder situation.

goodAg80 said:

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DSAg44 said:

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PJYoung said:

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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

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is that exponential or linear? I don't remember algebra very well.

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Mathematically that is a monotonically aroused function.

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Lol,

Depending on who you ask around here...it is both!

But seriously, like most Science you are looking at fudged numbers of contributing data sets trying to obtain an outcome.

That much is a fact.

These are the latest #s - the change noted is for today, February 21st.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Voting Day in Iran. Get out and vote, and unfortunately it may spread the virus. Hope the burkas help prevent transmission.

Quote:

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Container shipping from Chinese ports has collapsed since the outbreak of coronavirus and has yet to show any sign of recovery, threatening weeks of chaos for manufacturing supply lines and the broader structure of global trade.

Almost half of the planned sailings on the route from Asia to North Europe have been cancelled over the last four weeks. A parallel drama is unfolding on routes from the Pacific Rim to the US and Latin America.

Lars Jensen from SeaIntelligence in Copenhagen said the loss of traffic is running at 300,000 containers a week. This will cause a logistical crunch in Europe in early March even if the epidemic is brought under control quickly.

"The dominoes are toppling through the whole chain. When ships don't leave port in China, they don't stop to pick up cargo in Hong Kong, Saigon, or Singapore either. Freight rates are in free fall," he said.

Refrigerated ships full of frozen food - known as 'reefers' - are unable to enter Chinese ports because births are full and therefore cannot tap into electricity chargers. There is a logjam caused by the critical shortage of dockers and drivers. Meat supplies are spoiling at sea.

The US Agriculture Transportation Commission said the Pacific supply chain has been badly "compromised" and logistical headaches are building up as US ports as well. There will soon be an acute lack of containers in both American and European ports as the finely-tuned regime of world maritime transport goes haywire.

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What a giant mess....

Make Made in America /Hecho en Mexico Great Again

When memes become reality.

Anyone who has played the game Pandemic knows exactly how this is all going to go.

Especially when we have situations like these. Our hospitals are not prepared for a pandemic at all.

will25u said:

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The original Twitter post about it is here:

500,000 infected?

Bobcat06 said:

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500,000 infected?

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500,000 is probably a low end. You don't use the draconian tactics China is using unless you're facing an existential threat. The only things they could do that would be more draconian is immediately shooting anyone infected or even further dropping napalm on buildings to burn it out or even nukes on cities.

I mean they are freaking welding doors shut, you can't possibly think they are doing this for the small amount they are reporting.

With all of this scoreboard watching - it would be interesting to see same daily counts for the beginning of flu season - daily counts of infected, recovered, deceased., and spread to other countries. Doubt possible since it is pretty much year round but would give perspective.
With this I've always believed we are still seeing tip of iceberg - too many people flying in from infected countries, and add in fact a 14 day quarantine may not have been long enough.

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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When memes become reality.

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User name checks out....China would too...

Hogties said:

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Assuming we don't all die, this crisis in China will permanently weaken their economy because manufacturers will seek to add options for their supply chain.

To paraphrase Obama for Xi, once they leave, those manufacturing jobs won't come back.

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We aren't all going to die from the virus, but the economic disruptions are going to kick our assess for six months to a couple years. Shutting down supply lines, re-sourcing them to the US/Mex, and moving tooling, equipment, and production lines, hiring and training employees, all take time and capital.


The economy slammed into a reinforced concrete wall going 75mph once Wuhan got locked down. We are just now getting the Firemen and EMTs onto the crash scene. The big questions are how many survivors can walk away with minor cuts and bruises, how many need to be pulled out with the jaws of life, and which ones just need a sheet to cover them until the coroner shows up.


I think we have numerous Chinese firms and a bunch of US trucking/shipping firms and retail companies that are just waiting for the coroner.


The big unknown and biggest risk to the overall financial system are the banks and insurance firms. Claiming force majeure on contracts is great and all but eventually bills need to be paid. Banks can handle a few deadbeat companies but a ton of them around the globe rolling over all in a short period of time is a recipe for disaster. Same with insurance companies, paying out one policy can be dealt with, paying out 100s at the same time is a *****.

Mr.Infectious said:

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Hogties said:

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Assuming we don't all die, this crisis in China will permanently weaken their economy because manufacturers will seek to add options for their supply chain.

To paraphrase Obama for Xi, once they leave, those manufacturing jobs won't come back.

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We aren't all going to die from the virus, but the economic disruptions are going to kick our assess for six months to a couple years. Shutting down supply lines, re-sourcing them to the US/Mex, and moving tooling, equipment, and production lines, hiring and training employees, all take time and capital.


The economy slammed into a reinforced concrete wall going 75mph once Wuhan got locked down. We are just now getting the Firemen and EMTs onto the crash scene. The big questions are how many survivors can walk away with minor cuts and bruises, how many need to be pulled out with the jaws of life, and which ones just need a sheet to cover them until the coroner shows up.


I think we have numerous Chinese firms and a bunch of US trucking/shipping firms and retail companies that are just waiting for the coroner.


The big unknown and biggest risk to the overall financial system are the banks and insurance firms. Claiming force majeure on contracts is great and all but eventually bills need to be paid. Banks can handle a few deadbeat companies but a ton of them around the globe rolling over all in a short period of time is a recipe for disaster. Same with insurance companies, paying out one policy can be dealt with, paying out 100s at the same time is a *****.

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In the worse case, if the pandemic becomes too large then social services begin dropping off. Then the death toll starts to skyrocket because anyone who is at risk and needs constant supplies of medication to survive. In other words, peripheral deaths will get very large at that point. An example would be any diabetic who requires insulin.

19 makeshift hospitals? Wtf?