Cassius said:

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Shanked Punt said:

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CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 22 million flu illnesses, 210,000 hospitalizations and 12,000 deaths from flu.

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That's a 5/100th of 1 percent death rate.

Corona is between 3 and 50%.

Fail.

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The fail is on your end. Mild corona cases have been vastly underreported, and this years strain of the flu has been relatively tame.

Pinche Abogado said:

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Shanked Punt said:

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CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 22 million flu illnesses, 210,000 hospitalizations and 12,000 deaths from flu.

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Shanked, I mean this is in the nicest way possible, but you routinely post misinformation/incorrect information.

Could you please, this one time, refrain from posting in this thread...leave it to more knowledgeable posters.

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That is straight from the CDC. Nothing inaccurate about it compared to all of the other crap posted here from twitter posts or media that would make infowars look legitimate.

JJMt said:

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Five people in the Alps on a skiing holiday were just diagnosed with the virus. Apparently, they got it from another British citizen who had recently traveled to Singapore and had also been skiing at the resort.

It's of some concern because it's one of the first cases showing a path to the West other than from China.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/08/coronavirus-five-new-cases-in-france-are-british-nationals

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Yes, the issue is not that the flu is much more widespread and deadly today.

It is that this virus seems to be in the same general range of transmissibility as influenza, but appears to be many times more deadly.

If it spreads globally and becomes an endemic globally distributed virus that flares up regularly, it will be a major problem until effective vaccines are developed, and will kill far more people than the flu would with similar distribution.

Do we know who the US citizen was? Health worker? Quarantined at the hospital or another location?

Update - 60 year old male died in Wuhan hospital.

Shanked Punt said:

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Cassius said:

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Shanked Punt said:

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CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 22 million flu illnesses, 210,000 hospitalizations and 12,000 deaths from flu.

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That's a 5/100th of 1 percent death rate.

Corona is between 3 and 50%.

Fail.

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The fail is on your end. Mild corona cases have been vastly underreported, and this years strain of the flu has been relatively tame.

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I see your posts littered throughout this board...just gotta ask, what's it like to be an esteemed authority on everything?

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The fail is on your end. Mild corona cases have been vastly underreported, and this years strain of the flu has been relatively tame.

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Flu vaccines are less than 50% effective this year, compared to about 67% in most years.

It's looking more and more like these two things are likely:

- That it will not sweep the globe in 1 month a la Contagion and kill 200MM people in 2020.

- That it will sweep the globe eventually and become just another pain in the ass virus that kills 20-40,000 every year in each country.

yukmonkey said:

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It's looking more and more like these two things are likely:

- That it will not sweep the globe in 1 month a la Contagion and kill 200MM people in 2020.

- That it will sweep the globe eventually and become just another pain in the ass virus that kills 20-40,000 every year in each country.

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The conspiracy scenarios (50% mortality) just aren't playing out in western countries. But the real mystery remains - why is China reacting in such an extreme way?

lead said:

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yukmonkey said:

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It's looking more and more like these two things are likely:

- That it will not sweep the globe in 1 month a la Contagion and kill 200MM people in 2020.

- That it will sweep the globe eventually and become just another pain in the ass virus that kills 20-40,000 every year in each country.

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The conspiracy scenarios (50% mortality) just aren't playing out in western countries. But the real mystery remains - why is China reacting in such an extreme way?

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I think it is because the first two research studies by Chinese scientists indicated a CFR (death ratio) of between 15% and 6.5%, about the same as SARS. I have never seen a 50% mortality rate prediction except for MERS.

If this virus is like many respiratory viruses and dies out in warm humid conditions wouldn't a little global warming be good?

Big Al 1992 said:

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If this virus is like many respiratory viruses and dies out in warm humid conditions wouldn't a little global warming be good?

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I wonder about this for the people trapped in their homes. Could it prevent the spread by cranking up the heat and having a humidifier?

Way too early to throw predictions like that out.

It can mutate, China is lying about the numbers, how it will react to vaccines/treatments, how hard it will hit in Africa, South America, North America, Europe, India, etc.....


We are going to have to roll with the punches with this for awhile until the data shows the true nature of this. This maybe a year or two long observation, not 30 days.

JJMt said:

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Five people in the Alps on a skiing holiday were just diagnosed with the virus. Apparently, they got it from another British citizen who had recently traveled to Singapore and had also been skiing at the resort.

It's of some concern because it's one of the first cases showing a path to the West other than from China.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/08/coronavirus-five-new-cases-in-france-are-british-nationals

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I had a trip to Singapore later this month that was canceled. I've been tracking Singapore, so I've been watching the who's and how's.

That chain of events doesn't make sense.

Singapore is up to 33 confirmed cases.

The 1st confirmed case was Jan 23. Today is Feb 8th.

So, a Brit is in Singapore... sometime after Jan 20. Comes into contact with the 1st case, travels home to England, transmits to someone else who tests positive in the Alps by Feb 8th. 19 days.

The 1st case was a man who went to Singapore from Wuhan, arriving on Jan 20 in Singapore.

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After arriving in Singapore, the man checked in to Shangri-La's Rasa Sentosa Resort and Spa. On Jan 22, he told hotel staff that he was unwell and was taken to the Singapore General Hospital (SGH), where he was isolated and diagnosed with pneumonia.

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The Brit had to have stayed at the same resort, in order to offer the longest timeline. From there he was at the same resort these people were at, in the Alps.

From your article:

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The group had been staying in two apartments in a ski chalet in the Haute-Savoie region in the eastern French Alps when they were visited by a Briton who had been in Singapore and was found to have the virus when he returned to the UK at the end of last month.

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The guy was found to have CoronaVirus while in the UK over 8 days ago... and is in the Alps on vacation?

Guy vacations to Singapore and the Alps in an 18 day period of time?
Tested positive... and was he deemed "recovered?" We are quarantining people 14 days upon returning, and this guy is apparently healthy enough to travel internationally? How did he get from the UK to the Alps? Surely he didn't fly.

Is this an intentional attempt to spread the virus by human-to-human contact?

This article breaks down the timeline a bit better:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51425702

Where had the UK coronavirus patient been?

• 20 to 23 January: In Singapore on business
• 24 to 28 January: Stays in a chalet in Contamines-Montjoie, France
• 28 January: Returns to the UK
• 6 February: The Department of Health confirms he is the UK's third case of the virus, after testing positive in Brighton
• 7 February: A student at Portslade Aldridge Community Academy self-isolates on the advice of Public Health England, as a result of the investigation into this case

I just got back from Walgreens and Home Depot looking for some vinyl gloves to do some painting. In both stores they are right next to the masks (Walgreens) and respiratory equipment (Home Depot). Sold out at both stores. I can see Walgreens being sold out of the cloth masks. But Home Depot was completely sold out of anything related to respiratory protection in the paint section. That really surprised me, and I've been following this thread (from time to time). There are a lot of Asian where I live, and I'm assuming people are buying it up and shipping it to family in China.

RebelE91 said:

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I just got back from Walgreens and Home Depot looking for some vinyl gloves to do some painting. In both stores they are right next to the masks (Walgreens) and respiratory equipment (Home Depot). Sold out at both stores. I can see Walgreens being sold out of the cloth masks. But Home Depot was completely sold out of anything related to respiratory protection in the paint section. That really surprised me, and I've been following this thread (from time to time). There are a lot of Asian where I live, and I'm assuming people are buying it up and shipping it to family in China.

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People here are buying and stocking up. Here being the US

lead said:

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yukmonkey said:

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It's looking more and more like these two things are likely:

- That it will not sweep the globe in 1 month a la Contagion and kill 200MM people in 2020.

- That it will sweep the globe eventually and become just another pain in the ass virus that kills 20-40,000 every year in each country.

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The conspiracy scenarios (50% mortality) just aren't playing out in western countries. But the real mystery remains - why is China reacting in such an extreme way?

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A commie government flexing nuts over its citizenry should not be a mystery no matter the circumstances.

It is if it's self defeating. Every week of closure is perhaps 1% of nominal economic output. That's not a small loss.

At the Kroger in Keller and the Watauga firemen getting groceries. Thought it would a great opportunity since Watauga is tiny... and asked them if it had filtered down to their EMS. Yes, they have received protocal in regards to questions to ask and what to look for.

Are they completely out or just out of the big boxes? I saw empty shelves of the big box but plenty of two packs in Home Depot.

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270 is the number to watch. It will likely be underreported because of the lack of testing and reliability of testing in some countries but at least it's a better data point than what we will get out the Chinese.

HIPAA

Mr.Infectious said:

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Way too early to throw predictions like that out.

It can mutate, China is lying about the numbers, how it will react to vaccines/treatments, how hard it will hit in Africa, South America, North America, Europe, India, etc.....


We are going to have to roll with the punches with this for awhile until the data shows the true nature of this. This maybe a year or two long observation, not 30 days.

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this is the guy I'm listening to.

k2aggie07 said:

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It is if it's self defeating. Every week of closure is perhaps 1% of nominal economic output. That's not a small loss.

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Ghina playing the long game. 5-10% economic output is a blip. Reminding the populace that the government can put its boot on their throats at will and at the same time "save" them from disaster will pay dividends for decades to come.

Yep. You can't apply an American mindset to a Chinese response. They respond heavy handedly because they can. The party leaders call the shots, the people may as well be farm animals to be used as party leaders see fit.

Remember that, and the Chinese response makes a lot more sense.

10% economic loss is not a blip. That's a depression.

Have you worked in China? Just curious. My exposure is limited to a few trips and colleagues in Shanghai and Jiangsu, but I don't get the impression things work at all how you're describing.

If the petri dish results of chloraquine carry over to human patients, this thing will be under control before too long.

Chloraquine is cheap and has been around for decades.

A recession is multiple quarters of negative growth, this will (maybe) be a one time hit

Latest figures for China only.

34,610 cases
723 deaths
6,101 serious
2,050 recovered
27,657 suspected

Figures for China for 7 days ago:
14,380 cases
304 deaths
2,110 serious
328 recovered
19,544 suspected

We can calculate a somewhat ballpark figure for CFR (death ratio) from what China is reporting.
62,267 total cases.

Of 6101 serious cases, if deaths/recoveries ratio stays the same, it calculates to an additional 2151 deaths.

Adding 2151 to 723 for a total of 2874 deaths in 62,267 possible cases yields a CFR ballpark figure of 4.6%, which is 50 times as deadly as the flu.

HouAggie2007 said:

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A recession is multiple quarters of negative growth, this will (maybe) be a one time hit

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I know the textbook definition. My point is a hypothetical 10% hit in overall economic production is not a blip. It's huge, and would have ramifications beyond a single quarter.

Imagine your business. Fix costs don't change but top line order intake drops 10% in a year. Where's that leave your profitability ? Most likely negative.