lead said:

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yukmonkey said:

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It's looking more and more like these two things are likely:

- That it will not sweep the globe in 1 month a la Contagion and kill 200MM people in 2020.

- That it will sweep the globe eventually and become just another pain in the ass virus that kills 20-40,000 every year in each country.

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The conspiracy scenarios (50% mortality) just aren't playing out in western countries. But the real mystery remains - why is China reacting in such an extreme way?

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This is a possible theory

Translate this for us?

Asian makes have some ACE2 receptor that makes them more susceptible? Why? What's the function?

claym711 said:

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Translate this for us?

Asian makes have some ACE2 receptor that makes them more susceptible? Why? What's the function?

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The paper was discussed many pages back. A sample size of 1 will not lead to any reasonable conclusions.

They are estimating 50k new cases in China a day with a peak over 1 month away for Wuhan and 2-3 months away for all of China.

This is going to devastate that country.

Quote:

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Are they completely out or just out of the big boxes? I saw empty shelves of the big box but plenty of two packs in Home Depot.

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I saw nothing for respiratory equipment. Big boxes, two packs, paper masks....nothing.

VaultingChemist said:

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claym711 said:

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Translate this for us?

Asian makes have some ACE2 receptor that makes them more susceptible? Why? What's the function?

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The paper was discussed many pages back. A sample size of 1 will not lead to any reasonable conclusions.

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Here's another data point

https://pga.gs.washington.edu/gty_data/ace2/
Sample size of 45 - 60

My impression is that guy hasn't had much sleep, and he is not optimistic that the pandemic can be controlled.

Those figures also explain why those population groups are less susceptible to HIV infections, also.

Yes, and I expect lots of companies to report negative impacts from this along with the line "after the quarantine has ended we expect to be back at pre coronavirus levels" or some such. This assumes the quarantine ends sometime on Feb early March. If this keeps going past that then you start to see some long term impacts

RebelE91 said:

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I just got back from Walgreens and Home Depot looking for some vinyl gloves to do some painting. In both stores they are right next to the masks (Walgreens) and respiratory equipment (Home Depot). Sold out at both stores. I can see Walgreens being sold out of the cloth masks. But Home Depot was completely sold out of anything related to respiratory protection in the paint section. That really surprised me, and I've been following this thread (from time to time). There are a lot of Asian where I live, and I'm assuming people are buying it up and shipping it to family in China.

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Check Harbor Freight. They're always well stocked on this type of stuff and there are a lot of HF's.

we completely skipped months worth of delivery quotes from end of April to end of july. we have preference with our suppliers. factories are supposed to open up tomorrow (so tonight) ... I feel like we will know a lot more in the morning

k2aggie07 said:

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10% economic loss is not a blip. That's a depression.

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It's also world wide.

By itself the US can weather supply disruptions. There may be some empty shelves and slow downs but it's not a complete killer. How many storage units and barns are full to the brim with "stuff" we can't keep in our houses? Buying used and flea markets will become super popular.

BUT a lot of people will lose their jobs. Retail, Commercial Real Estate, Mortgage Brokers, Restaurant staff, cleaning crews etc ....

The unemployment rate has the potential to skyrocketed with this.

Interesting Wired article regarding why we shouldn't compare seasonal flu with nCoV 2019. https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-is-bad-comparing-it-to-the-flu-is-worse/

Shanked Punt will like these articles.

This is from one of the best YouTube channels about China:



The part at the end with the drone terrorizing the old lady is awesome, straight out of a dystopian sci-fi movie.

There's a ****load of those videos. The theory espoused is that the virus also attacks the heart, which has no symptoms until heart attack. At first i was skeptical, but kore and more of these videos of people dropping dead keep coming out.

Forum Troll said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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Shanked Punt will like these articles.

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First tweet kind of loses credibility after claiming that 27 percent of the earth's population died from spanish flu.

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Iirc it infected about that many and killed well over 10%

KorbinDallas said:

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Interesting Wired article regarding why we shouldn't compare seasonal flu with nCoV 2019. https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-is-bad-comparing-it-to-the-flu-is-worse/

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That article is nonsense. Ebola doesn't have the potential to wipe out our civilization by the nature of its disease course and infectivity. The flu, for the same reason, does. The flu is a MUCH bigger and scarier problem long term than Ebola, or any current strain of coronavirus.

Influenza A's nature (it's propensity for cross species antigenic shift) is unique and why it is almost certainly going to cause the most devastating human pandemics going forward.

Big Al 1992 said:

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Don't lock your knees, will make you pass out.

cbr said:

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Forum Troll said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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Shanked Punt will like these articles.

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First tweet kind of loses credibility after claiming that 27 percent of the earth's population died from spanish flu.

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Iirc it infected about that many and killed well over 10%

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It infected about 30% of the global population and killed about 3%

VaultingChemist said:

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Latest figures for China only.

34,610 cases
723 deaths
6,101 serious
2,050 recovered
27,657 suspected

Figures for China for 7 days ago:
14,380 cases
304 deaths
2,110 serious
328 recovered
19,544 suspected

We can calculate a somewhat ballpark figure for CFR (death ratio) from what China is reporting.
62,267 total cases.

Of 6101 serious cases, if deaths/recoveries ratio stays the same, it calculates to an additional 2151 deaths.

Adding 2151 to 723 for a total of 2874 deaths in 62,267 possible cases yields a CFR ballpark figure of 4.6%, which is 50 times as deadly as the flu.

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How does it look when you take a majority of the suspected category and move them to deaths? Yesterday there was an article about how a crematorium received 100+ bodies and 8 were listed as corona virus and 48 were listed as suspected.

I'm fairly certain most of the suspected are already dead.

SchizoAg said:

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This is from one of the best YouTube channels about China:



The part at the end with the drone terrorizing the old lady is awesome, straight out of a dystopian sci-fi movie.

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Here is some Normal Flu Stuff from the video.

$140 if you rat out your neighborhood who fled from Wuhan. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/business/china-coronavirus-wuhan-surveillance.amp.html

Disabled boy dies after father is quarantined and he has no caretaker.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/teenager-cerebral-palsy-dies-father-quarantined-suspected-coronavirus-china-2020-2%3Famp

cbr said:

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There's a ****load of those videos. The theory espoused is that the virus also attacks the heart, which has no symptoms until heart attack. At first i was skeptical, but kore and more of these videos of people dropping dead keep coming out.

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Eh wouldn't suffocation (fluid filling the lungs) result in the same thing? Dude over exerts (even by just standing) and then passes out when his oxygen levels fall too low?

k2aggie07 said:

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Have you worked in China? Just curious. My exposure is limited to a few trips and colleagues in Shanghai and Jiangsu, but I don't get the impression things work at all how you're describing.

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The China that killed 3 million of its own people in a communist revolution? The China that has used their military on numerous occasions to kill and injure civilian protesters who disagree with the communist party, including having military tanks open fire on civilians in Tienaman Square? The China that uses a secret police force to make dissenters dissapear, even from foreign countries, without going through any sort of due process? The China that imposes its will on internationally recognozed soveraign territories like Taiwan and Hong Kong?

And best for last: The China that has in just the last few years foricibly rounded up and imprisoned an estimated 1 million Chinese Uighurs, and other dissidents in a network of heavily fortified "re-education" camps that are still operating to this day to phycologically and physically torture them into submitting to Chinese Communist Party rule?

That China?

Yeah, I'd say ordering a few cities of people to stay at home for a couple weeks is a pretty unsurprising course of action for China.

Yes, it should have said "infected" instead of "killed". It did kill 2% to 3% of the world's population, not 27%.

You could have just said "no".

Im just saying. Visits to China as a Western business person or tourist doesn't doesn't exactly give a full picture of the CCPs methods for maintaining control of the country.

But to answer your question directly. No, life hasn't taken me to China yet. South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Cambodia, Singapore, & Malaysia are as close as I've been. Not much desire to see mainland China, Hong Kong is very high on my list of places to go though, hopefully the CCP doesn't screw it up too badly before I get there.

I imagine it gives a better picture than not having been.

I know they can be brutal. But they also maintain power by keeping their constituents fed, clothed, and so on. And a great many people in China are not in the CCP, and are not necessarily political. In some respects their system is akin to federalism, but the amount of local control changes over time with different leaders.

It's not like North Korea.

Infection_Ag11 said:

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cbr said:

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Forum Troll said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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Shanked Punt will like these articles.

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First tweet kind of loses credibility after claiming that 27 percent of the earth's population died from spanish flu.

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Iirc it infected about that many and killed well over 10%

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It infected about 30% of the global population and killed about 3%

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I recall a clear figure of 50-60 million. There were less than 2 billion people 100 years ago.

50 million is 3% of ~1.6 billion...

k2aggie07 said:

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I imagine it gives a better picture than not having been.

I know they can be brutal. But they also maintain power by keeping their constituents fed, clothed, and so on. And a great many people in China are not in the CCP, and are not necessarily political. In some respects their system is akin to federalism, but the amount of local control changes over time with different leaders.

It's not like North Korea.

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Thought about that - haven't heard a lot from Best Korea. Maybe Rodman knows.