Bobcat06 said:

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Canada. Doesn't count.

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Don't call me buddy, pal.

Imagine a single infected Lyft/Uber driver in a city like Austin on a Friday.....


Between trips to the bars and airport he could infect half the word in a night.

Suspected cases increased about 50% again

Here is the source on people fleeing before the quarantine was in place.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/5-million-left-wuhan-before-coronavirus-quarantine-2020-1%3Famp

They are saying 5MM fled Wuhan in the days before the quarantine. I would guess any of them who contracted the virus are just about to start showing signs. Imagine if 1/1000 of them were infected, that's 5,000. And if they are spreading at the estimated R0 that's getting much much bigger over the next few weeks.

Source says there are 9MM left in the city. Currently 7,000+ confirmed cases so 1/1000 is not too far off. And none of these new confirmed cases would have been contracted since the quarantine since that happened Sunday the 26th.

82000 people under "observation".. yeah I'm sure they have enough time to check in with all those people. I assume this is the people being welded into their homes

Their actions could lead to the death of the families they rushed home to see.

All Chinese regions now have confirmed cases

MouthBQ98 said:

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Water source, toilet paper, lots of dry cereals, something to cook with.

I live out in the sticks on 10 acres with accessible water. I have a small food stockpile. I really hope and believe this won't be anything nearly that apocalyptic. I suspect western medicine and hygiene standards and cultural practices regarding public health and common good will prevail.

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Better vacuum seal the cereal to keep the weevils and moths from destroying it. Same thing with flour and all that stuff.

We got a Foodsaver recently with the Mason jar attachment to seal a lot of that stuff for longer term storage (not so much for the apocalypse but for when we actually want to eat the stuff).

Works outstanding!

To say that is sadly true.

Most people I know in college station are not even slightly worried.

People still out drinking and partying without a care.

Quote:

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The math shows 115 million infections in 30 days

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FIFY.... technically its not a prediction, its a math equation.

According to the rate of infection spread (R0) 115 MM is baked in the cake. I think he used 2.5. That number can change dramatically on behaviors and education.

For instance, if the 25 million people that will watch the Super Bowl this Sunday decide to watch it at home instead of going to a large house party or a bar, the number can decrease in the US. Also, if we all decide to start with better sanitation and hand washing the numbers will also decrease. Take vitamins, get a good night sleep, reduce drinking alcohol, eat healthier and keep your house clean and sanitized.


It also depends on how fast the virus mutates, it can get more virulent or less virulent.



IMO its time is we all sack up and realize what we are facing. Take the necessary actions to protect yourself, your family and your friends.

So around 100k either confirmed or suspected...

It's about to get dicey for companies with manufacturing sites over there. I'm guessing some factories will remain closed after the Chinese New Year is done.

RAB91 said:

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It's about to get dicey for companies with manufacturing sites over there. I'm guessing some factories will remain closed after the Chinese New Year is done.

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Perhaps they should have thought about that before they sold out Americans for foreigners.

School holidays extended to Feb 3rd for now.

Most work companies are shut down. That's what I'm being told by family.

Humans think linearly and relatively few of us are intelligent enough to appreciate the implications of exponential functions.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Humans think linearly and relatively few of us are intelligent enough to appreciate the implications of exponential functions.

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Too many people blow off math as something they don't need to know outside of adding and subtracting.

erudite said:

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To say that is sadly true.

Most people I know in college station are not even slightly worried.

People still out drinking and partying without a care.

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Yeah, all of my family think I'm crazy for being so worried.

They'd really think I'm crazy if they knew I'm ready to leave the area in a moments notice. My worry is the breakdown of food supply. I live 30 miles from Houston.

I don't want to anywhere close to a major population center if and when they discover they can't go down to the corner and get something to eat.

Desperate people do desperate things.

So if you live in Bryan, what should I do to prepare my home? Water? Cans of food? What else....I have plenty of ammo

Mr.Infectious said:

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Quote:

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The math shows 115 million infections in 30 days

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FIFY.... technically its not a prediction, its a math equation.

According to the rate of infection spread (R0) 115 MM is baked in the cake. I think he used 2.5. That number can change dramatically on behaviors and education.

For instance, if the 25 million people that will watch the Super Bowl this Sunday decide to watch it at home instead of going to a large house party or a bar, the number can decrease in the US. Also, if we all decide to start with better sanitation and hand washing the numbers will also decrease. Take vitamins, get a good night sleep, reduce drinking alcohol, eat healthier and keep your house clean and sanitized.


It also depends on how fast the virus mutates, it can get more virulent or less virulent.



IMO its time is we all sack up and realize what we are facing. Take the necessary actions to protect yourself, your family and your friends.

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Agree.

VaultingChemist said:

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Mr.Infectious said:

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Quote:

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The math shows 115 million infections in 30 days

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FIFY.... technically its not a prediction, its a math equation.

According to the rate of infection spread (R0) 115 MM is baked in the cake. I think he used 2.5. That number can change dramatically on behaviors and education.

For instance, if the 25 million people that will watch the Super Bowl this Sunday decide to watch it at home instead of going to a large house party or a bar, the number can decrease in the US. Also, if we all decide to start with better sanitation and hand washing the numbers will also decrease. Take vitamins, get a good night sleep, reduce drinking alcohol, eat healthier and keep your house clean and sanitized.


It also depends on how fast the virus mutates, it can get more virulent or less virulent.



IMO its time is we all sack up and realize what we are facing. Take the necessary actions to protect yourself, your family and your friends.

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Agree.

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we also should organize some sort of backup comms just in case.

andyv94 said:

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So if you live in Bryan, what should I do to prepare my home? Water? Cans of food? What else....I have plenty of ammo

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I would start simple. When you go get groceries buy your normal list. If it's non-perishable (canned, vacuum sealed, or doesn't say refrigerate after opening) buy double the amount you would normally. Add in a few bags of rice, beans, pasta, a few canned goods, etc. Also, get a 5gallon jug of water and a case or two of bottles water each trip. if you do this for say 3 weeks you, should have a 2 weeks or so of extra. If you want more, just keep this going a few more weeks or months. Sure your grocery bill will be 50% more, but you don't need to go buy a pallet of MREs or drill a water well unless your into that kind of thing

Thank you

black_hat_ag said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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Mr.Infectious said:

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Quote:

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The math shows 115 million infections in 30 days

---

FIFY.... technically its not a prediction, its a math equation.

According to the rate of infection spread (R0) 115 MM is baked in the cake. I think he used 2.5. That number can change dramatically on behaviors and education.

For instance, if the 25 million people that will watch the Super Bowl this Sunday decide to watch it at home instead of going to a large house party or a bar, the number can decrease in the US. Also, if we all decide to start with better sanitation and hand washing the numbers will also decrease. Take vitamins, get a good night sleep, reduce drinking alcohol, eat healthier and keep your house clean and sanitized.


It also depends on how fast the virus mutates, it can get more virulent or less virulent.



IMO its time is we all sack up and realize what we are facing. Take the necessary actions to protect yourself, your family and your friends.

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Agree.

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we also should organize some sort of backup comms just in case.

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We should all pitch in and buy brandon a generator to keep the servers running. The world depends on it.

Nm

Japanese Evacuees Test Positive for Coronavirus

Quote:

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Japan's health ministry says three evacuees from the Chinese city of Wuhan have tested positive for the new type of coronavirus.

The three individuals were among the more than 200 passengers who returned to Japan on a government-chartered flight on Wednesday.

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This is zooming right past the total number of SARS cases.

What kind of how-tos do you keep?

VaultingChemist said:

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Japanese Evacuees Test Positive for Coronavirus

Quote:

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Japan's health ministry says three evacuees from the Chinese city of Wuhan have tested positive for the new type of coronavirus.

The three individuals were among the more than 200 passengers who returned to Japan on a government-chartered flight on Wednesday.

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That's pretty incredible when you stop to think about the implications of 1.5% of the population getting it (yes, I realize it's not exactly 1.5% since there were more than 200 people...you get the idea).

Now to see how many other people that were on the same flight contract it. . .

It will take about 5 to 10 days.

Quote:

The 80 year old Chinese man came to France on January 23rd. On Saturday January 25th he visited a Paris ER with a fever. He was refused testing for the coronavirus because he does not come from Wuhan but a city 400km north of Wuhan, and therefore did not meet the "criteria" for the test. He returned to the hospital yesterday with worsened respiratory symptoms and was tested and subsequently confirmed positive. He is currently in the ICU and his daughter was confirmed to have the virus as well earlier today. Imo this case was handled terribly and not only was this poor man sent away on Saturday to potentially infect others until Tuesday but his health was allowed to deteriorate without any supportive care. I truly hope that this is not how they are handling cases in France or elsewhere.


So glad I have a doctor I have to pay, and I can sue the hell out of if this were me.

JJMt said:

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Keep in mind that, so far at least, all of the cases in the US have been described as having only mild symptoms.

Also keep in mind that in situations such as this the initial severity rates typically are relatively high but then decrease over time. That's because, at least initially, people with only mild symptoms don't necessarily go see a doctor. It is only the people in very bad shape who go to see a doctor.

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Statistically, that would be expected as 80% of cases require no hospitalization.

What are the chances I'll die before April 15th?

https://gnews.org/89749/

China to admit they are at fault and the disease came from their level 4 lab? Wow.

Quote:

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A reliable source told Miles Guo today that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will admit to the public of an "accidental" leak of lab-created virus from a P4 lab in Wuhan to put blames on "human errors". But the official announcement is still being finalized.

Initially, the Chinese communist's propaganda machines were blaming the virus on wild animals like bats by showing many videos of people eating bats.

(Please click here to view the bat-eating images which are too disturbing to be shown here. )

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If so then they deserve massive economic punishment for this. Having a level 4 biolab and having procedures this lax is unacceptable. What an absolute joke this country is.