So no more cured, but more dead?

Water source, toilet paper, lots of dry cereals, something to cook with.

I live out in the sticks on 10 acres with accessible water. I have a small food stockpile. I really hope and believe this won't be anything nearly that apocalyptic. I suspect western medicine and hygiene standards and cultural practices regarding public health and common good will prevail.

Engine10 said:

---

Quote:

---

If you are smart, you'll prepare yourself for a couple of months of potential isolation, worst case. If you need any more than that the world is a different place and a few more cans of soup wont be what makes the difference.

---

What are your plans for months of isolation? Genuinely curious

---

Build my drone. Delete 10,000 pictures of prime. Go through the files of 3/4 old computers in storage. Work on my jazz chops. Finish some songs I am writing. Start a book I will be writing. Learn Mandarin. Play piano. Maybe even buy an xbox.....the real question is, is this WFH time or not!

Mr.Infectious said:

---

The Calm Before The Storm - Coronavirus Cases Set To Explode Higher (Update #6)

---

It appears that we will know in three days if this is going to keep tracking exponentially. If it does, it probably means that it will be time to prepare for it in the U.S.

Damn, I hope the Chinese can slow this down.

Could it be that the actual recovery rate is very low?

Near zero?

scottimus said:

---

Engine10 said:

---

Quote:

---

If you are smart, you'll prepare yourself for a couple of months of potential isolation, worst case. If you need any more than that the world is a different place and a few more cans of soup wont be what makes the difference.

---

What are your plans for months of isolation? Genuinely curious

---

Build my drone. Delete 10,000 pictures of prime. Go through the files of 3/4 old computers in storage. Work on my jazz chops. Finish some songs I am writing. Start a book I will be writing. Learn Mandarin. Play piano. Maybe even buy an xbox.....the real question is, is this WFH time or not!

---

not sure I would worry about mandarin, probably be more people speaking Gaelic at that point.

So far, with proper medical treatment, those outside of China have not been dying. We don't know how well they are doing and if they are recovering.

VaultingChemist said:

---

Mr.Infectious said:

---

The Calm Before The Storm - Coronavirus Cases Set To Explode Higher (Update #6)

---

It appears that we will know in three days if this is going to keep tracking exponentially. If it does, it probably means that it will be time to prepare for it in the U.S.

Damn, I hope the Chinese can slow this down.

---

You're missing the other important issue. That is how deadly it is. What % of people who get it will die.

Influenza spreads far quicker than this virus. It spreads across the globe hitting literally hundreds of millions of people in a month or two. And it kills. But the rate of death for those who obtain the virus is very low.

MouthBQ98 said:

---

So far, with proper medical treatment, those outside of China have not been dying. We don't know how well they are doing and if they are recovering.

---

Lucky this started Wuhan and not Shanghai or Tianjin. But what % of the 5mm who got out before the quarantine are infected and then how many have really gotten out of China? Probably pretty low. So that's the good news.

MouthBQ98 said:

---

Water source, toilet paper, lots of dry cereals, something to cook with.

I live out in the sticks on 10 acres with accessible water. I have a small food stockpile. I really hope and believe this won't be anything nearly that apocalyptic. I suspect western medicine and hygiene standards and cultural practices regarding public health and common good will prevail.

---

Oh thank God...this post made me feel better.

MouthBQ98 said:

---

So far, with proper medical treatment, those outside of China have not been dying. We don't know how well they are doing and if they are recovering.

---

The Washington case is reportedly resolved. They're just waiting on CDC to confirm via testing, but his test is at the back of the line after all the suspected cases in the U.S.

New updates today is that two of the five French infected are not doing well (downgraded from serious to critical). One's an 80 year old man, the other is his daughter (haven't seen her age reported).

VaultingChemist said:

---

11 of 99 patients died, almost all were elderly with underlying medical problems prior to infection.

That is about 9 times as deadly as the common flu, with an R0 value twice as high.

---

Link?

MouthBQ98 said:

---

So far, with proper medical treatment, those outside of China have not been dying. We don't know how well they are doing and if they are recovering.

---

I believe there is a delay of several days between infection and death. When was the the first reported infection outside China? Last Friday?

It may also be the fatality rate outside of China is low because it hasnt had time to work.

aezmvp said:

---

MouthBQ98 said:

---

So far, with proper medical treatment, those outside of China have not been dying. We don't know how well they are doing and if they are recovering.

---

Lucky this started Wuhan and not Shanghai or Tianjin. But what % of the 5mm who got out before the quarantine are infected and then how many have really gotten out of China? Probably pretty low. So that's the good news.

---

I don't recall the source, but I remember seeing that a large amount of people were fleeing into other Provences before the quarantine was fully in place. Maybe that's what we may be seeing with all of the other provenances seeing an uptick. I'm not sure if it would have been past the incubation period for those people though.

WestAustinAg said:

---

VaultingChemist said:

---

11 of 99 patients died, almost all were elderly with underlying medical problems prior to infection.

That is about 9 times as deadly as the common flu, with an R0 value twice as high.

---

Link?

---

Lancet Coronavirus

Its a math problem now.

I agree, hopefully the Chinese went into freak out mode immediately and contained it to an extent. Unfortunately, I don't trust the Chinese to commit economic suicide to save the rest of us. Nor do I trust the official numbers, we may be further up the curve than what they are saying.


Good news is the US is a much healthier and cleaner place, bad news is we have a bunch of morons that are going to panic if this follows the exponential growth line.

It gets too much worse, we close borders and quarantine recent entrants. No screwing around. I'm not talking to trade necessarily, but people coming in for tourism or anything not strictly necessary can wait a while. Press pause until this gets sorted out.

We don't need a bunch of slobs spreading this mess and killing our economy. Yeah, people might mostly survive, but they'll be unable to work for WEEKS, and too many at once will overwhelm our medical capacity.

Engine10 said:

---

Quote:

---

If you are smart, you'll prepare yourself for a couple of months of potential isolation, worst case. If you need any more than that the world is a different place and a few more cans of soup wont be what makes the difference.

---

What are your plans for months of isolation? Genuinely curious

---

i live on a ranch, i am always reasonably ready for that. Especially since having gone a week with no power, water, emergency services, or anything else in rita,

then going almost 40 days in the tax day flood
then 20 in harvey

i am not afraid to admit that it can happen. i've lived it. right here in calm ass civilized texas.

KorbinDallas said:

---

aezmvp said:

---

MouthBQ98 said:

---

So far, with proper medical treatment, those outside of China have not been dying. We don't know how well they are doing and if they are recovering.

---

Lucky this started Wuhan and not Shanghai or Tianjin. But what % of the 5mm who got out before the quarantine are infected and then how many have really gotten out of China? Probably pretty low. So that's the good news.

---

I don't recall the source, but I remember seeing that a large amount of people were fleeing into other Provences before the quarantine was fully in place. Maybe that's what we may be seeing with all of the other provenances seeing an uptick. I'm not sure if it would have been past the incubation period for those people though.

---

Province, not Provence

WestAustinAg said:

---

VaultingChemist said:

---

Mr.Infectious said:

---

The Calm Before The Storm - Coronavirus Cases Set To Explode Higher (Update #6)

---

It appears that we will know in three days if this is going to keep tracking exponentially. If it does, it probably means that it will be time to prepare for it in the U.S.

Damn, I hope the Chinese can slow this down.

---

You're missing the other important issue. That is how deadly it is. What % of people who get it will die.

Influenza spreads far quicker than this virus. It spreads across the globe hitting literally hundreds of millions of people in a month or two. And it kills. But the rate of death for those who obtain the virus is very low.

---

Everyone needs to watch the video above. This virus spreads twice as easily as the flu. He predicts 115 million infections in 30 days.

He predicts 115 million infections in 30 days, with 23 million requiring hospitalization for serious complications (ICU). He added that we only have a small fraction of the number of hospital beds that will likely be required.

We should know within 3 to 4 days

New England journal of medicine just released a paper discussing epidemiology of 425 cases

VaultingChemist said:

---

WestAustinAg said:

---

VaultingChemist said:

---

11 of 99 patients died, almost all were elderly with underlying medical problems prior to infection.

That is about 9 times as deadly as the common flu, with an R0 value twice as high.

---

Link?

---

Lancet Coronavirus

---

Thanks for the link. The 99 all were from Wuhan. Half of them had visited the Wuhan food market. They were older and sicker than the general population to start with. I dont think we can say from this quick study that it has a 10% kill rate.

Still it's a good start and we shall see soon what it all means.

Okay can someone discuss what this means on terms of real actual infections & deaths?

foleyt said:

---

New England journal of medicine just released a paper discussing epidemiology of 425 cases

---

CC: CDC, who is only keeping the passengers on that escape flight quarantined at March AFB for three days.

How long before panic hoarding starts here?

sw@n said:

---

scottimus said:

---

Engine10 said:

---

Quote:

---

If you are smart, you'll prepare yourself for a couple of months of potential isolation, worst case. If you need any more than that the world is a different place and a few more cans of soup wont be what makes the difference.

---

What are your plans for months of isolation? Genuinely curious

---

Build my drone. Delete 10,000 pictures of prime. Go through the files of 3/4 old computers in storage. Work on my jazz chops. Finish some songs I am writing. Start a book I will be writing. Learn Mandarin. Play piano. Maybe even buy an xbox.....the real question is, is this WFH time or not!

---

not sure I would worry about mandarin, probably be more people speaking Gaelic at that point.

---

Lol! Didn't even thing about that...I guess you are right.

More on the French critical cases:

Quote:

---

The 80 year old Chinese man came to France on January 23rd. On Saturday January 25th he visited a Paris ER with a fever. He was refused testing for the coronavirus because he does not come from Wuhan but a city 400km north of Wuhan, and therefore did not meet the "criteria" for the test. He returned to the hospital yesterday with worsened respiratory symptoms and was tested and subsequently confirmed positive. He is currently in the ICU and his daughter was confirmed to have the virus as well earlier today. Imo this case was handled terribly and not only was this poor man sent away on Saturday to potentially infect others until Tuesday but his health was allowed to deteriorate without any supportive care. I truly hope that this is not how they are handling cases in France or elsewhere.

---

The market is completely ignoring this. Do "they" know something we don't?

Is this overblown?

Forgive me, I have not been following the thread closely.

I'd appreciate the latest summary.

Cassius said:

---

The market is completely ignoring this. Do "they" know something we don't?

Is this overblown?

Forgive me, I have not been following the thread closely.

I'd appreciate the latest summary.

---

I think the theory is:

1. It hasn't blown up here (yet). Based on known incubation period / presentation of symptoms, cases in the US should start popping tomorrow and through the first half of next week. If we don't see an increase in numbers on any sort of substantial scale, we probably are okay.

2. There's lots of things that can be done to protect the market (i.e., an emergency rate drop).

Getting to the point that almost any fever after international travel will have to be tested. Can't assume cases only originate in China let alone just Wuhan

GAC06 said:

---

KorbinDallas said:

---

aezmvp said:

---

MouthBQ98 said:

---

So far, with proper medical treatment, those outside of China have not been dying. We don't know how well they are doing and if they are recovering.

---

Lucky this started Wuhan and not Shanghai or Tianjin. But what % of the 5mm who got out before the quarantine are infected and then how many have really gotten out of China? Probably pretty low. So that's the good news.

---

I don't recall the source, but I remember seeing that a large amount of people were fleeing into other Provences before the quarantine was fully in place. Maybe that's what we may be seeing with all of the other provenances seeing an uptick. I'm not sure if it would have been past the incubation period for those people though.

---

Province, not Provence

---

Thanks for the valuable input.

Cassius said:

---

The market is completely ignoring this. Do "they" know something we don't?

Is this overblown?

Forgive me, I have not been following the thread closely.

I'd appreciate the latest summary.

---

Watch the video and you can see why it doesn't look serious in the early stages.

Canada. Doesn't count.

Bobcat06 said:

---

Canada. Doesn't count.

---

A little more news.....1,032 new cases and 37 new deaths in Hubei province, China.