China has absolute **** air quality. No wonder the people are dropping like flies.

Going to be interesting to see how east vs west/ 1st world vs 3rd world plays out.


There are still going to be some serious economic ramifications though. Just spoke to a friend that is a cups and plasticware distributor for restaurants/grocery stores. She got an email from her Chinese sources, the factory is shut down for 8-12 weeks.

Hubei province
(including Wuhan)
3,554 cases
125 deaths
671 serious, 228 critical

Still holding at 29% serious or worse.

4400 to 5600 is a significant slowdown in reported case growth over 24 hrs. That is encouraging g.

tsuag10 said:

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I'm at a big international trade show this week and the booth next to ours was for a Chinese company. They were a no-show today; we will see if they show tomorrow. I'm wondering if they were quarantined or maybe just barred from travel.

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Update - This Company is from Weifang, Shandong, China. Not very close to Wuhan.

Interesting

k2aggie07 said:

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4400 to 5600 is a significant slowdown in reported case growth over 24 hrs. That is encouraging g.

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Serious/critical went up significantly again.

Also, keep in mind the confirmed cases requires them to get a sample from someone, test it, and confirm. That could be a slow process over there. They could be out of kits. There could be too many to test.

The confirmed cases number means little really.

I haven't seen the suspected cases number for today - it was around 6800 yesterday. Curious how many of the suspected became confirmed today, etc.

foleyt said:

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As we've discussed: passenger screening has minimal if any effect

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This is brain-dead. Screening can detect some cases; isn't that better than none?

KidDoc said:

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The vast majority of respiratory viral pathogens spread 2-3 days prior to developing symptoms. It is why excluding febrile children from day care OR screening for febrile people on flights is generally a futile gesture.

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Why is it "futile"? Do kids stop being contagious as soon as they develop a fever?

JJMt said:

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That reminds me of the old joke about the Aggie and the tu grad who were doing their business in the restroom at the same time. The tu guy finishes first and goes over to the sink to wash his hands. The Aggie, after finishing his business, simply heads to the door instead.

The tea sip, noticing, says "You know, my mom always taught me to wash my hands after peeing."

To which the Aggie responds, "You know, my mom always taught me not to pee on my hands."

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Literally everyone in the world has heard this joke a minimum of 100 times, in at least 10 different variants.

I laughed

But have you heard the LSU version yet?

Is this it?

[url] [/url]

[url]

[/url]



Not sure if it's all the same scene but looks like we got some blockade runners.

Trip to academy for buckshot tomorrow.

Seriously though, how insane would things get if for instance they quarantined LA

Mr.Infectious said:

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Not sure if it's all the same scene but looks like we got some blockade runners.

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Where is our awesome translator to tell us what that guy was screaming?

k2aggie07 said:

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4400 to 5600 is a significant slowdown in reported case growth over 24 hrs. That is encouraging g.

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China is overloaded and the hospitals in outbreak areas were sending people home. Lots of people with this virus aren't being tested.

Could be Hong Kong?

bmks270 said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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4400 to 5600 is a significant slowdown in reported case growth over 24 hrs. That is encouraging g.

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China is overloaded and the hospitals in outbreak areas were sending people home. Lots of people with this virus aren't being tested.

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Are they Culling the herd? Sure sounds like it

Terrible if true

Contagion on ActionMAX right now. I'm sure that's a coincidence.

Who knows they might be being proactive knowing the pig Ebola wiped out their food supply. Take out 20% of the human population to save the rest?


Hell, this could also have been some rouge terrorist group out of Hong Kong that decided to fight an unconventional war w the mainland.

Or Mother Nature just being a dirty **** because it's that time of the month.....

k2aggie07 said:

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4400 to 5600 is a significant slowdown in reported case growth over 24 hrs. That is encouraging g.

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Exactly they only have so many test kits! Or personnel to test the things.

Yeah! Go virus!

How can you trust any of the reported metrics? All you can trust is what is known of the actions, which say its a hell of a lot worse than the reported metrics.

Mr.Infectious said:

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[url] [/url]

[url]

[/url]



Not sure if it's all the same scene but looks like we got some blockade runners.

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This is likely the reason the official numbers are slowly dropping. I will never trust the Chinese government if there is a simple goal that relies on false data.

The movie Contagion is terrifying. But the mortality rate is something like 20% and the R0 has to be 200.

Look at the scale of the Chinese reaction. That's your clue.

Think of how many died from the flu last year here. Why is China reacting so strongly to a lesser count IF it is a "lesser" count.

Therefore, it stands to reason the incubation or asymptomatic period is problematical enough where only limiting contact (quarantine) is what they see as the only way to halt spread quickly.

What we need is for DC to wrap up this nonsense attempt to over-turn an election and make sure that they know the actual interval before an infected person recovers, and even more important, how long and what circumstances they remain a carrier. Make that first priority.

Because you also don't want to shut off travel if you don't really need to. Even a bad `flu going the rounds' usually doesn't rate that if it is not some hyper-spreading thing. Again look at our own losses from the more `ordinary' influenza currently.

I'll ask my grad student from Wuhan what they are saying. He has been confirming the vids for me.

claym711 said:

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Trip to academy for buckshot tomorrow.

Seriously though, how insane would things get if for instance they quarantined LA

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As long as all the quarantines are on California, say San Francisco I would say it's karma.

But I this doesn't affect too many health wise in the US.

claym711 said:

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How can you trust any of the reported metrics? All you can trust is what is known of the actions, which say its a hell of a lot worse than the reported metrics.

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I trust absolutely nothing coming out of China. I expect their numbers are more accurate if you multiply by 1000.

My grad student replied:

Quote:

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People say it's Fujian province. Not sure what's going on, looks like police is arresting patients. One guy said I'm not sick. Not sure.

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Zemira said:

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claym711 said:

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How can you trust any of the reported metrics? All you can trust is what is known of the actions, which say its a hell of a lot worse than the reported metrics.

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I trust absolutely nothing coming out of China. I expect their numbers are more accurate if you multiply by 1000.

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Even that is too cynical.

Far more relevant, as said, is the scale of the Chinese reaction.

That really only makes sense if one of these is true (can be any one)

- Death count far more than let on.
- Death results from infection more often than not, regardless of how fast spread.
- Incubation and transmission is such that it is not easily screened for
- They know what it is, and what engineered to do, and so are not wasting time.

What doesn't fit is if it is like our influenza --- would the `colder and more often lying (??) ' than us Chinese govt care about stopping what we have right now to the point we are seeing? We didn't. Schools still open with our influenza for example. So the answer seems no.