Stay at home until Feb 10 and when you come back everyone's working doubles to catch up!foleyt said:
I haven't seen counterfeit for sale there, but lots of clothes for example. I've clicked on a few things to find out that the estimated delivery date is some 4 weeks out. There are also a lot of resellers of things like dash cams where there will be some inventory in the US but it's really someone ordering from Ali and reselling. Prices from what I've seen where an item is on Amazon / Ali are about a 70-100% markup.Fenrir said:
So what you're saying is that we may have less crappy counterfeit products on Amazon in the near term?
Hard to work a warehouse remotely... We aren't that far on robots yet.tysker said:Stay at home until Feb 10 and when you come back everyone's working doubles to catch up!foleyt said:
Serious question: Given work-from-home services, VPNs and automated processes, how much do these types of 'shut downs' effect business? It seems that it would depend on business types themselves and their disaster planning.
About 0.6 % of the total US population died, while world wide mortality was about 3-5 %Quote:
The Spanish flu, named for causing millions of deaths in Spain soon after it was identified, didn't actually originate in Spain. Although the Spanish Flu's exact point of origination has been hotly debated, some contend it all began in Haskell County, Kansas. There's a long-held theory that Camp Funston, a U.S. Army base, was home to the first confirmed outbreak on March 11, 1918. Within hours of the first soldier falling ill, dozens more came down with the flu. By weeks' end, at least 500 people on base were sick with it.
At least one historian, however, believes that newly discovered records show the outbreak began in 1917 in Shanxi Province, China, and that the flu was spread by Chinese laborers hired to work in France and Britain during World War I. This also would explain why the disease was so well-traveled across the globe. Many of the infected were part of the Chinese Labor Corps who moved through the east coast of North America and Canada on the way to Europe.
From there, this highly contagious flu spread like wildfire, claiming lives in England, France, Germany and Spain. The pandemic also continued across China, India, Japan and the rest of Asia before making a return appearance in the U.S. People reportedly dropped dead in the streets in Boston, and 50,000 people across Massachusetts were suddenly sick and dying. In Philadelphia, churches, schools and other public places closed, but nearly 300 people died in a single day. In New York, the single day death toll rose to 851.
Quote:
Let's say 10% of Texas gets nCoV.
If 3% die, that's 90,000 fatalities.
Probably 600,000 would need hospitalization due to pneumonia complications.
tysker said:Stay at home until Feb 10 and when you come back everyone's working doubles to catch up!foleyt said:
Serious question: Given work-from-home services, VPNs and automated processes, how much do these types of 'shut downs' effect business? It seems that it would depend on business types themselves and their disaster planning.
The tweet specifically mentioned Tencent and Alibaba which are generally considered tech companies. While manufacturing is 40% of China GDP its only like 10% of its employment.OnlyForNow said:
Well nothing that is manufactured will be getting worked on or put together.... so most non-tech related things.
tysker said:Stay at home until Feb 10 and when you come back everyone's working doubles to catch up!foleyt said:
Serious question: Given work-from-home services, VPNs and automated processes, how much do these types of 'shut downs' effect business? It seems that it would depend on business types themselves and their disaster planning.
I disagree. A 20% complication rate is horrendous.aezmvp said:We absolutely can't trust the numbers coming out from China. However a 20% complication rate of serious or critical patients isn't a bad flu. Yes we have better health, nutrition, cultural hygiene practices, and sanitation. If this thing gets loose in say Singapore before it gets over here, those numbers or Japan's numbers are what I'll be looking at very closely.MouthBQ98 said:
The drop in production from China will have real economic effects this quarter and maybe next.
China is a disaster waiting to happen regarding infectious disease due to the population density and poor cultural hygiene practices, particularly in poorer areas.
There will be global economic consequences.
The virus is basically comparable to a bad flu. There are other viruses of this type that have circulated through the human population. Widespread exposure to this one is apparently unprecedented in modern times. Still, though it seems pretty dangerous, it is likely to not be as deadly or infectious in western nations with better health and sanitation and hygiene.
Believe it or not, sometimes, keeping people alive is more important than theatre, improv, and pagents.Tanya 93 said:tysker said:Stay at home until Feb 10 and when you come back everyone's working doubles to catch up!foleyt said:
Serious question: Given work-from-home services, VPNs and automated processes, how much do these types of 'shut downs' effect business? It seems that it would depend on business types themselves and their disaster planning.
I tutor kids and teach theatre/improv/pageant makeup and speech classes.
I can't work from home.
Sometimes you have to work directly with the public
Is this a culturally related or technology related? Do Chinese companies not have the disaster-plan infrastructure that is common among large scale firms in other countries?Quote:
The jobs in China almost all require physical presence
Skype, Facetime, Periscope, WhatsApp?Quote:
I tutor kids and teach theatre/improv/pageant makeup and speech classes.
I can't work from home.
Sometimes you have to work directly with the public
aTmAg said:
Believe it or not, sometimes, keeping people alive is more important than theatre, improv, and pagents.
That is one weird looking kid...wbt5845 said:aTmAg said:
Believe it or not, sometimes, keeping people alive is more important than theatre, improv, and pagents.
I'm impressed...somebody beat Rocky to the perfect meme reply.wbt5845 said:aTmAg said:
Believe it or not, sometimes, keeping people alive is more important than theatre, improv, and pagents.
tysker said:Is this a culturally related or technology related? Do Chinese companies not have the disaster-plan infrastructure that is common among large scale firms in other countries?Quote:
The jobs in China almost all require physical presence
Domestic manufacturing will need to rely on second or third source supply chains. It may strain those supply chains as they see a demand surge, but they should be able to keep up (assuming the virus doesnt affect them too). May see secondary and tertiary supply chain rise prices which would result in higher cost of goods.tysker said:
But even if manufacturing gets shut down for a two-weeks or a month it simply shifts the output to a different time period. I'm sure some larger manufacturers have contingency plans in other countries as well even though the input/labor costs may be higher, its better than not producing anything at all...
I'm not a manufacturing guy so can these factories simply run double shifts to essentially catch up? Obviously there's a lag and supply chain issues but it seems slower Chinese 1Q20 GDP concerns can be offset by increases in 2Q and 3Q.
From the outside, it seems manufacturers can use this epidemic to test its reliance on Chinese factories and come up with a diversified contingency plan.
The conciliate is right by there. Craziest construction site I have ever seen. OSHA does not have jurisdiction on Chinese soil so this was built the Chinese way. Guys hanging from the roof on ropes, no helmets.....DirtyMikesBoys said:
House two doors down in Montrose is used as an Airbnb or something like that sometimes. Was outside earlier and a group of Chinese people walked past on the sidewalk speaking Chinesethey didn't strike me as Chinese-Americans. Didn't think much of it until about thirty minutes later, a Jeep with Florida plates pulled up, presumably a rental in hindsight, full with another group of people unloading suit cases plastic-wrapped speaking Chinese with masks on.
After reading this thread, I kind of put everything together and thought there's a chance, however small it might be, that the 10-15 people I saw go into that house got out of China and are staying in the US for the foreseeable future.
Could be totally unrelated coincidences, but the gravity of how serious some are taking this kind of hit home seeing a ton of Chinese nationals that very well could've uprooted their life to increase the odds they'd save it.
Very reassuring press conference. No need for Americans to worry "at this moment". There will be aggressive screening at the 20 airports.KorbinDallas said:
https://www.hhs.gov/live/live-2/index.html#11465
Live stream of CDC press conference.
KorbinDallas said:
https://www.hhs.gov/live/live-2/index.html#11465
Live stream of CDC press conference.
Per a doctor I was discussing this with, of all the options to make a weaponized virus, coronavirus would be wayyyy down the list.fullback44 said:
Just throwing this out there ... not sure this has been posted here yet? Makes a lot of sense, but pretty dam unbelievable if true ?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/did-china-steal-coronavirus-canada-and-weaponize-it
I'm not implying that every job can be done remotely. If that's how it comes across, that was not my intention. I'm only inquiring as to how big of a deal a 'dont come to office' shutdown truly is for China and Chinese business. Similar issues are not a disaster here in the US (see weather related shutdowns), but our economy is quite different in terms of makeup and technologies.Quote:
Good lord.
Not everything can be done remotely.
I was paid for a job.
I complete that job.
But to smirk like this that all jobs can be done from home? Grow up
VaultingChemist said:Very reassuring press conference. No need for Americans to worry "at this moment". There will be aggressive screening at the 20 airports.KorbinDallas said:
https://www.hhs.gov/live/live-2/index.html#11465
Live stream of CDC press conference.
Dr. Fauci also said that historically no respiratory illness outbreaks resulted from transmission of asymptomatic individuals.
Large airplane manufacturing checking in - it's not that simple. Double shifts don't mean double the production. You have limitations on equipment and tools, for example. Can't run two parts on the same machine with two operators simultaneously. Can't get past certain points in your build without parts and standards either. There may also be contractual penalties for slipping too far from delivery dates. Lastly you can't switch suppliers at the drop of a hat, especially if you have certification requirements or if it's something your supplier owns the engineering for.tysker said:
But even if manufacturing gets shut down for a two-weeks or a month it simply shifts the output to a different time period. I'm sure some larger manufacturers have contingency plans in other countries as well even though the input/labor costs may be higher, its better than not producing anything at all...
I'm not a manufacturing guy so can these factories simply run double shifts to essentially catch up? Obviously there's a lag and supply chain issues but it seems slower Chinese 1Q20 GDP concerns can be offset by increases in 2Q and 3Q.
From the outside, it seems manufacturers can use this epidemic to test its reliance on Chinese factories and come up with a diversified contingency plan.
