As we've discussed: passenger screening has minimal if any effect

At this point it's a meaningless gesture since it can spread with no symptoms. We should have started it when AI recognize the outbreak on December 31st.

With disease, swift reaction is the only method that will do anything. Otherwise, good luck, especially with the Chinese diaspora as global as it is.

Bobcat06 said:

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So that's asymptomatic transmission

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Perhaps

Trying to find the original source for that quote. There's still the possibility that she's misremembering (or lying)

Schu in Mizzou said:

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Bobcat06 said:

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foleyt said:

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Lots of questions here. When was this meeting? Was the Chinese woman symptomatic at the time?

I'm very interested to know the R0 in a Western country where people wash their hands

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Here is the answer by the CDC rep to that question from a reporter yesterday afternoon.

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Dan Vergano: Hi, thanks very much. I wonder if you could say something about the disputes over the weekend about the infectiousness of the disease, the subzero factor. Is there any way this usually plays out or there a stage at which you can definitively say how infectious this disease is?

Dr. Messonnier: I wouldn't say it's a dispute. I would say its scientists from around the world are looking at the available data and trying to analyze it, to come up with information that will be helpful in response. So, different scientists are looking at the data slightly differently and our general interpretation at this point is that the incubation period is somewhere around two to 14 days. I do think, again, it's important that this outbreak is really unrolling in front of our eyes and when will we have a definitive answer it may not be further on into an outbreak. There's some confusion about what this is that folks are talking about, it's called an Arnot. It's a reproductive number of how many infected people come from a single infected person. Several different groups looked at it. Most articles have had interpretation that the Arnot is somewhere 1.5 and 3. That's not a dramatic difference. As a comparison, the Arnot for measles is somewhere around 12 to 18. That's among the most contagious. In general, you want to get an Arnot below one. That's how you get the disease controlled. I'll stop there.

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Arnot is R naught or R0.

They are saying that the R0 is the same or worse than the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic.

The incubation period is a real game changer. There may be hundreds of thousands in China that are infected but don't show any symptoms.

Say goodbye to your Dell customer service call centers. India is on the board.....

Is the death count still supposedly at 103? I can't imagine China going through all this effort for 103 deaths. I bet they shot more people than that in Tienanmen square.

I assume the real number is drastically higher.

R0 for 1918 Spanish Flu was supposedly in 1.4-2.8 range.

This is the scare tactics. As death toll soars!!! Over 100 people is not high in a population the population of the earth. Yes people will die. If they start dropping like flies in the spot by the hundreds then you better pucker up your butts

The vast majority of respiratory viral pathogens spread 2-3 days prior to developing symptoms. It is why excluding febrile children from day care OR screening for febrile people on flights is generally a futile gesture.

R0 will also change in different countries based on level of hygiene and technology. Like how Ebola tore up Africa but was isolated in USA.

Interested to see how it spreads in a country with decent hygiene (Germany) vs a country where they don't wash hands (China)

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According to some projections, there might be up to 300,000 cases in China, and there are likely dozens of people who have died of pneumonia who in reality died from nCoV - but those deaths will never be recorded. Although China is "behaving better" than it did during the SARS outbreak, they're still concealing information from the international community.
"They're still not behaving well. They're concealing information, including the spread to health care workers, which we didn't know until last week" Gottlieb said.
China is already in a "full-blown epidemic." The US will likely face some limited outbreaks, but Gottlieb said we have the tools to suppress the virus and prevent the same thing from happening in the US. The FDA, meanwhile, announced plans to advance development of "medical countermeasures" against the virus.

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Those "limited outbreaks" will not be as easy to contain as Gottlieb stated. The virus spread over most of China in three weeks.

The Fall Guy said:

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This is the scare tactics. As death toll soars!!! Over 100 people is not high in a population the population of the earth. Yes people will die. If they start dropping like flies in the spot by the hundreds then you better pucker up your butts

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For comparison, in TX alone between October and December of 2018 1,900 people died of the flu and its complications.

The people on this thread and on twitter are the same kind of people that caused the gasoline panic in TX a couple years ago.

rgag12 said:

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The Fall Guy said:

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This is the scare tactics. As death toll soars!!! Over 100 people is not high in a population the population of the earth. Yes people will die. If they start dropping like flies in the spot by the hundreds then you better pucker up your butts

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For comparison, in TX alone between October and December of 2018 1,900 people died of the flu and its complications.

The people on this thread and on twitter are the same kind of people that caused the gasoline panic in TX a couple years ago.

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I understand what you are saying, however the concern is that this is an unknown virus and could have unknown consequences. Once we have more data, it could be as simple as that, but for now I plan to pay attention. You won't know when the right time will be to take action, but if you are ignoring it, you will most likely miss that opportunity.

I usually do an initial observation of surroundings. Starting with kicking the door open with my foot on the way in, observe sink/soap/papertowel then go for the "boxer flip" therefore not holding said anatomy. Shake and flip back. Then to get out try and time someone coming in or use a piece of toilet paper

rgag12 said:

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The Fall Guy said:

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This is the scare tactics. As death toll soars!!! Over 100 people is not high in a population the population of the earth. Yes people will die. If they start dropping like flies in the spot by the hundreds then you better pucker up your butts

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For comparison, in TX alone between October and December of 2018 1,900 people died of the flu and its complications.

The people on this thread and on twitter are the same kind of people that caused the gasoline panic in TX a couple years ago.

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Some people just want to watch the world burn, and they will add as much gasoline to the fire as possible. Others just want it to be bad just so they can scream "SEE, SEE, SEE, I WAS RIGHT!!!!!" This is why so many people post bull**** on Twitter/Facebook/YouTube, knowing it will be swallowed hook, line, and sinker.

Nancy Pelosi and a bus load of democrats were on their way to go on an overseas junket, when Trump pulled
the plug on that nonsense. Maybe Nancy needs to get the gang together and head over to Wuhan, China just
to see how bad things are. I am sure Trump will approve the travel request this time.

Rapier108 said:

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rgag12 said:

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The Fall Guy said:

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This is the scare tactics. As death toll soars!!! Over 100 people is not high in a population the population of the earth. Yes people will die. If they start dropping like flies in the spot by the hundreds then you better pucker up your butts

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For comparison, in TX alone between October and December of 2018 1,900 people died of the flu and its complications.

The people on this thread and on twitter are the same kind of people that caused the gasoline panic in TX a couple years ago.

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Some people just want to watch the world burn, and they will add as much gasoline to the fire as possible. Others just want it to be bad just so they can scream "SEE, SEE, SEE, I WAS RIGHT!!!!!" This is why so many people post bull**** on Twitter/Facebook/YouTube, knowing it will be swallowed hook, line, and sinker.

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Look neither of you are wrong. However at the same time I don't think it's unreasonable to witness the largest quarantine in human history and think to yourself: "You know those guys have a history of not telling the whole story and boy those actions sure don't match up with those numbers. What's really going on?"

Outside of one or two people on this thread, most people here are just looking for good information to be able to make rational, logical and informed decisions over the long term. Hell my wife's company had their international teams in for a meeting last week Germany, Norway, Canada and China. You don't think if it does transmit asymptomatically that she shouldn't ask where they're based?

Yes in the absence of data that makes sense people can panic. But mostly people here are looking to cure the absence of data with that information from as many sources as they can get and hopefully some expertise or insight as a plus. That's not just rational and reasonable but prudent.

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For comparison, in TX alone between October and December of 2018 1,900 people died of the flu and its complications.

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Flu has a mortality rate of 0.1%, with as high as 1% in those over the age of 65.

The 2019-nCoV may have a mortality rate 5 to 10 times higher, which could change from week to week depending on how it mutates. There are reports of several different strains in one household.

As someone mentioned above the effects in the US might not be that many people getting sick, but the economic impact could be huge if products stop coming out of China. The globalists have pushed the global economy for so long that now China having an epidemic effects the world like never before. All those manufacturing jobs Trump brought back and had been working to bring back suddenly don't look like enough when you entire supply chain is frozen because China is in quarantine.

Trust me I will not endanger my health if at all possible, I know I'm like 10x more likely to get something like this. But I'm not going to hide in my house either unless something drastic changes.

Folks trying really hard to derail this thread.

The drop in production from China will have real economic effects this quarter and maybe next.

China is a disaster waiting to happen regarding infectious disease due to the population density and poor cultural hygiene practices, particularly in poorer areas.

There will be global economic consequences.

The virus is basically comparable to a bad flu. There are other viruses of this type that have circulated through the human population. Widespread exposure to this one is apparently unprecedented in modern times. Still, though it seems pretty dangerous, it is likely to not be as deadly or infectious in western nations with better health and sanitation and hygiene.

MouthBQ98 said:

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The drop in production from China will have real economic effects this quarter and maybe next.

China is a disaster waiting to happen regarding infectious disease due to the population density and poor cultural hygiene practices, particularly in poorer areas.

There will be global economic consequences.

The virus is basically comparable to a bad flu. There are other viruses of this type that have circulated through the human population. Widespread exposure to this one is apparently unprecedented in modern times. Still, though it seems pretty dangerous, it is likely to not be as deadly or infectious in western nations with better health and sanitation and hygiene.

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We absolutely can't trust the numbers coming out from China. However a 20% complication rate of serious or critical patients isn't a bad flu. Yes we have better health, nutrition, cultural hygiene practices, and sanitation. If this thing gets loose in say Singapore before it gets over here, those numbers or Japan's numbers are what I'll be looking at very closely.

Only an idiot would travel to China right now. If we are careful with travel the next few weeks in areas where active inventions are known, we should be able to regionally isolate this mess.

Looks like no Ali Express orders for a while. Lots of stuff on Amazon is actually from resellers from either Ali site so this could be a little interesting as time goes on.

So what you're saying is that we may have less crappy counterfeit products on Amazon in the near term?

Has Zeihan chimed in on this?