China Coronavirus Outbreak Spreads; Hundreds Infected As Human-To-Human Transmission

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Illuminaggie
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In reply to Mordred • 1:54a, 3/13/20
Mordred said:

This has been my favorite site on the outbreak and i've been following it for about 2 weeks now. Pretty fascinating stuff if you like numbers like I do.

Unfortunately focusing on active cases doesn't tell the complete story since 91% of the recovered patients are in China. Maybe everybody's curve will look like China's and this will all be done with soon, but that seems optimistic given the slow playing that everybody has been doing until the last week. Total cases is more important because that's where you see the exponential growth rate (or if it's peaked). Right now that number is a straight line and once capacity gets overwhelmed you have cascading failures of the health care system (see: Italy).
I really wish they had a separate chart/dataset for each graph that didn't include China's numbers. They obscure a lot of the info.

+1 on that site. I wonder how long everybody can keep up with the stats though. I worry that we're going to see a lot more static if this gets out of hand.
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BuffsAg47
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In reply to [removed post] • 2:20a, 3/13/20
AG
C@LAg said:
Shanked Punt said:


We won't even be able to keep pace with Italy in terms of treating patients.
Ridiculous.

we ARE NOT and WILL NOT get anywhere near close to maxing out beds, even in hard hit areas like Seattle or (potentially) NYC.



We will absolutely max out our total capacity of hospital beds in the next two-four weeks.
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The Fall Guy
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2:29a, 3/13/20
AG
Well Austin officially on the list.https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/breaking-news-two-presumptive-positive-cases-of-covid-19-confirmed-in-the-austin-travis-county-area-austin-public-health/
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Not a Bot
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In reply to BuffsAg47 • 4:46a, 3/13/20
AG
I don't know about total beds, but ICU beds are going to be hard to come by.
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claym711
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5:36a, 3/13/20
AG
What happened with the study on the Washington cases where they sequenced the virus and found a Suggested origin several weeks prior?
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IrishTxAggie
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5:38a, 3/13/20
AG
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Texaggie7nine
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In reply to IrishTxAggie • 5:46a, 3/13/20
Wonder if the trend of so many private urgent care centers popping up around the US will end up being a blessing if they can be made into CV care centers.
7nine
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Skillet Shot
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5:48a, 3/13/20
How are front line doctors, nurses and local hospitals not getting tests but every actor, politician and professional athlete are getting them on demand?
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IrishTxAggie
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In reply to Skillet Shot • 5:54a, 3/13/20
AG
Skillet Shot said:
How are front line doctors, nurses and local hospitals not getting tests but every actor, politician and professional athlete are getting them on demand?


Because well educated doctors and nurses have extremely good bio security measures ingrained and beaten into their minds during their education and training.
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AgFan2015
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5:55a, 3/13/20
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AgFan2015
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5:57a, 3/13/20


Well there you go, nothing to worry about anymore......
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MouthBQ98
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In reply to Artorias • 6:02a, 3/13/20
AG
Some rights pretty much nearly all, except in the most extreme circumstances and those are usually specifically demoted.
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The Collective
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6:03a, 3/13/20
AG
What is on his hands?
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AgFan2015
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6:06a, 3/13/20
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PJYoung
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6:11a, 3/13/20
AG
Spain is apparently our next Italy.

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PJYoung
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In reply to Zobel • 6:13a, 3/13/20
AG
k2aggie07 said:
Some preliminary good news

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767

Quote:
we find, under a linear regression framework for 100 Chinese cities, high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of cities. One degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively. This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19.

Not peer reviewed, grain of salt, etc etc


Really good news.
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IrishTxAggie
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6:16a, 3/13/20
AG
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PJYoung
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6:19a, 3/13/20
AG
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Nitro Power
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In reply to PJYoung • 6:20a, 3/13/20
AG
Humidity and Temperature tuning up in Houston. Might be a good case study to see what happens. I personally thought the reports than temperature / humidity would have no effect on the spread were a bit off base (inconclusive). They impact other viruses, so how could it be definitive that it would not impact this particular virus? Just my thoughts.
When you fall to your knees and ask God for help, don’t forget to fall back on your knees and say ‘thank you’ when He answers.- Steve Torrence
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FamousAgg
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In reply to Mordred • 6:21a, 3/13/20
Mordred said:
KorbinDallas said:


We need to refocus on active cases not total cases. This is more of a barometer for what's going on. You can see the dip after China peaked and before Europe and the Middle East picked up. Note that it is rising again and will probably peak over China's number. Everyone wants to focus on total confirmed cases, but half of those are recovered.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
This has been my favorite site on the outbreak and i've been following it for about 2 weeks now. Pretty fascinating stuff if you like numbers like I do.

Unfortunately focusing on active cases doesn't tell the complete story since 91% of the recovered patients are in China. Maybe everybody's curve will look like China's and this will all be done with soon, but that seems optimistic given the slow playing that everybody has been doing until the last week. Total cases is more important because that's where you see the exponential growth rate (or if it's peaked). Right now that number is a straight line and once capacity gets overwhelmed you have cascading failures of the health care system (see: Italy).


You can still see exponential growth on this chart. Take a look at the current one. I'm optimistic that people are starting to pay attention now, but I'm not seeing much other good news.

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Tanya 93
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In reply to [removed post] • 6:22a, 3/13/20
C@LAg said:
Seattle public libraries now closed for a month.

Where will the homeless go to ****, pee, masturbate, look at porn, steal from people and sleep inside during the day?
The library is my go to when schools are closed.


They have a 6 foot by 6 foot giant chess/checkers board



plus Lego robotics classes
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Nitro Power
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In reply to Tanya 93 • 6:25a, 3/13/20
AG
Tanya 93 said:





plus Lego robotics classes
I love legos
When you fall to your knees and ask God for help, don’t forget to fall back on your knees and say ‘thank you’ when He answers.- Steve Torrence
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AgFan2015
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In reply to [removed post] • 6:32a, 3/13/20
C@LAg said:
Seattle public libraries now closed for a month.

Where will the homeless go to ****, pee, masturbate, look at porn, steal from people and sleep inside during the day?



The Seattle homeless are going to be wiped out with this virus and spread it to nearly every corner of the city before they are.....same with SF, LA, NYC, Chicago, Austin, Dallas, etc.


Watch lib heads explode when someone realizes this and recommends rounding them up to put them in camps. It sucks but this population is going to be a super spreader.


Time to start making tough decisions...



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Tanya 93
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In reply to Nitro Power • 6:36a, 3/13/20
Whiskey Jacket said:
Tanya 93 said:





plus Lego robotics classes
I love legos
I think everyone loves them except when you step on them with bare feet
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Nitro Power
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In reply to AgFan2015 • 6:39a, 3/13/20
AG
Let's look at the positive. Perhaps this makes those populations decide to actually start doing something about their insane policies, which lead to homelessness (mental health, drug use, the lack of affordable living, etc.).
When you fall to your knees and ask God for help, don’t forget to fall back on your knees and say ‘thank you’ when He answers.- Steve Torrence
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AgFan2015
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6:40a, 3/13/20


I don't think this is what the University had in mind for students to be safe and slow the spread....
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IDAGG
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6:40a, 3/13/20
AG
Oregon Governor orders all K-12 schools to close until April 1.


Quote:
PORTLAND, Ore. Oregon Gov. Kate Brown has ordered all K-12 schools in the state to close from Monday, March 16 through Tuesday, March 31 because of the coronavirus outbreak

Students are expected to return to class Wednesday, April 1.
https://katu.com/news/local/gov-brown-orders-all-k-12-schools-to-close-statewide-for-two-weeks-due-to-coronavirus
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AgFan2015
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6:45a, 3/13/20


Good idea. Implementation might be difficult though.





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AgFan2015
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6:58a, 3/13/20
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Texaggie7nine
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In reply to AgFan2015 • 7:00a, 3/13/20
Mr.Infectious said:
#Notallheroswearcapes
7nine
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PJYoung
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In reply to Nitro Power • 7:02a, 3/13/20
AG
Whiskey Jacket said:
Humidity and Temperature tuning up in Houston. Might be a good case study to see what happens. I personally thought the reports than temperature / humidity would have no effect on the spread were a bit off base (inconclusive). They impact other viruses, so how could it be definitive that it would not impact this particular virus? Just my thoughts.

I don't recall any studies that said temperature didn't make a difference.

The only thing I recall is the stuff out of Singapore that did talk about humidity making a difference in spread.

We need all of the help we can get with our limited testing in this country and community spread for over 6 weeks now.

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Houston Lee
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7:02a, 3/13/20
AG
Been saying for the past 24 hours now. Testing doesn't matter. Treat the observable symptoms and admit the most severe into the hospital. The rest of us will have to rely on our own immune system.
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Tanya 93
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In reply to AgFan2015 • 7:02a, 3/13/20
Mr.Infectious said:
Would using TOR get that for free?

Asking for a friend.
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ccaggie05
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7:06a, 3/13/20
AG
I'm hoping all of the attention in the US over the past few days results in slowing down the spread and we don't end up like Italy. The light rush hour traffic in Houston the last couple days gives me some hope.
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B-1 83
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In reply to AgFan2015 • 7:14a, 3/13/20
AG
Mr.Infectious said:
C@LAg said:
Seattle public libraries now closed for a month.

Where will the homeless go to ****, pee, masturbate, look at porn, steal from people and sleep inside during the day?



The Seattle homeless are going to be wiped out with this virus and spread it to nearly every corner of the city before they are.....same with SF, LA, NYC, Chicago, Austin, Dallas, etc.


Watch lib heads explode when someone realizes this and recommends rounding them up to put them in camps. It sucks but this population is going to be a super spreader.


Time to start making tough decisions...



This will be rough on addicts whose health is compromised and their dealer is sick/dead.
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