These are all good points, but just FYI, I was initially more dispelling the idea that audiences won't show up to theaters/will instead wait for streaming vs. trying to argue that the Mando movie will do Inside Out 2 numbers. Or rather, if audiences don't show up for Mando, it won't be because they're waiting for it on streaming. It'll be because it's a TV brand, there's too much backstory to catch up on, there's Star Wars fatigue, etc.
That said, if the trailers are good enough, it's obvious Luke is integral to the plot, the plot looks relatively contained, the "woke" complaints are two+ years in the rearview, etc, a Mando movie feels ripe for success. Especially with a Memorial Day weekend release, where Star Wars used to rule.