This is what I'm thinking. I love seeing it presented as such as well, month by month like that.
Star Wars and Avatar both can't/won't exist in December. Someone has to move. And as mentioned earlier, because Solo was a semi-disaster in May, I doubt Star Wars ever releases in May (or the summer) again. It's also worth noting that the first Avatar originally had a Memorial Day Weekend 2009 release date, and May 2008 and May 2007 release dates prior to that (but that's whole other issue). Point is, Avatar was oringally conceived as a summer tentpole release. It wasn't until relatively late in the game that Fox decided to move it to December.
Right now, Avatar 2 and Avatar 3 are scheduled for December 2020 and December 2021, respectively. Then, if audiences respond to those two movies, there will be a gap, and Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 are tentatively scheduled for December 2024 and December 2025, respectively. All four sequels are scheduled, but only the first two are currently filming and guaranteed to release.
Regardless, the December 2020 release for Avatar 2 creates a bit of a conundrum...
- There's no Star Wars movie currently scheduled for 2020. Obi-Wan MIGHT fall into that spot, but at this point I doubt that even that spin-off is happening, at least any time relatively soon, and it's looking more and more like the next Star Wars movie after IX will be the first in Rian Johnson's trilogy, currently rumored (by the producer himself) as a tentative 2021 release.
- So, considering the "gap" in 2020, does Disney keep Avatar 2 there, knowing that Avatar 3 will likely get "bumped" in 2021 by Star Wars? Or, does Disney go ahead and announce that BOTH Avatar sequels are moving to summer, paving the way for Star Wars in December 2021? I honestly don't know.
If I were the one planning this out, I'd go one of two ways...
- 2020 = No Avatar, No Star Wars
- 2021 = Avatar 2 in May, Rian Johnson Star Wars Part 1 in December
- 2022 = Avatar 3 in May, Benioff & Weiss Stars Wars Part 1 in December
- 2023 = Rian Johnson Star Wars Part 2 in December
- 2024 = Benioff & Weiss Stars Wars Part 2 in December
- 2025 = Avatar 4 in May, Rian Johnson Star Wars Part 3 in December
- 2026 = Avatar 5 in May, Benioff & Weiss Stars Wars Part 3 in December
... OR ...
- 2020 = Avatar 2 in December (as currently scheduled)
- 2021 = Avatar 3 in December (as currently scheduled)
- 2022 = Rian Johnson Star Wars Part 1 in December (allowing a nice, clean two-year break after IX)
- 2023 = Benioff & Weiss Star Wars Part 1 in December
- 2024 = Avatar 4 in May, Rian Johnson Star Wars Part 2 in December
- 2025 = Avatar 5 in May, Benioff & Weiss Stars Wars Part 2 in December
- 2026 = Rian Johnson Star Wars Part 3 in December
- 2027 = Benioff & Weiss Stars Wars Part 3 in December
... and between those two scenarios, I'd probably pick the second. Either way, one of the franchises is likely going to get "bumped" six months to a year. And personally, I'd rather take a two-year breather from Star Wars after IX, before diving into all the new stuff. That said, there are obviously a number of other scenarios on the board as well, so who knows. Can't wait 'til see how it all plays out, though...