http://birthmoviesdeath.com/2015/12/07/you-did-it-captain-phasma-was-gender-swapped

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Opening weekend - $210 million - OVER (at least $250M, with $300M legitimately in play)
Domestic - $700 million - OVER ($900M range)
Worldwide - $2.7 billion (Avatar) - OVER (first $3B movie in history)
Number of OT character deaths - 0.5 - OVER (There will be one, no question. MAYBE two.)
Number of Skywalker offspring - 1.5 - UNDER
Number of lens flares - 8.5 - OVER
Number of pages on this thread on release day - 350 - OVER (closer to 400)

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Let's go! 60 more pages in the next 10 days! Ha, that's just over 200 posts per day!

I dunno man, that's gonna be tough.

I'm curious to hear some more o/u's on the box office numbers though.

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quote:

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Opening weekend - $210 million - OVER (at least $250M, with $300M legitimately in play)
Domestic - $700 million - OVER ($900M range)
Worldwide - $2.7 billion (Avatar) - OVER (first $3B movie in history)
Number of OT character deaths - 0.5 - OVER (There will be one, no question. MAYBE two.)
Number of Skywalker offspring - 1.5 - UNDER
Number of lens flares - 8.5 - OVER
Number of pages on this thread on release day - 350 - OVER (closer to 400)

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Let's go! 60 more pages in the next 10 days! Ha, that's just over 200 posts per day!

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Do Han/Leia's chirrens count as Skywalkers?

Yes. Skywalker blood.

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Yes. Skywalker blood.

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Interesting that we think only one is a Skywalker.

I thought SURELY, there'd be more than...Finn

I'm back and forth. Part of me thinks both Rey and Kylo have Skywalker blood, but then another part of me thinks that's almost too much.

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I'm back and forth. Part of me thinks both Rey and Kylo have Skywalker blood, but then another part of me thinks that's almost too much.

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I mean, that's the obvious answer...but you may be right. Do we really want another trilogy where both the protagonist and big bad are relatives?

http://www.vulture.com/2015/12/lin-manuel-miranda-star-wars-cantina-song.html

Box Office Predictions:

Friday: $110MM including midnight previews
Saturday: $70MM
Sunday: $65MM

$245MM opening weekend

Mon-Thurs: $20MM/day average

End first week at $325MM

2nd weekend gross: $125MM

End 2nd week at $510MM

3rd weekend gross: $80MM

End 3rd week at $620MM

Final domestic gross: $850MM

Total international gross: $3.2B

I nerfed and posted this in the main thread. My bad.

What will be the first movie in 2016 to knock The Force Awakens from the number one spot?

1/15 - 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
1/15 - The Fifth Wave
1/22 - The Boy
1/22 - Dirty Grandpa
1/29 - The Finest Hours
1/29 - Kung Fu Panda 3
2/05 - Pride and Prejudice and Zombies
2/12 - Deadpool
2/12 - Zoolander 2

My personal guess would be Zoolander 2. If so, The Force Awakens would have had EIGHT WEEKS at number one. I just can't see any of the others taking it down. Maybe Kung Fu Panda 3 or The Fifth Wave, but if TFA is even half as good as we're expecting, I just don't see it losing in January. Also, for the record, I've seen the Deadpool trailer twice in theaters now, both with sold out audiences, and it's fallen incredibly flat both times. Despite the fanboy hype, I really do think it's going to bomb, hence Zoolander 2 potentially being the first huge draw in 2016, and finally dethroning Star Wars.

Thoughts? Anyone here thinks it stays at number one PAST Zoolander 2?

KFP3 easily if not before that.

SW could easily be mediocre, but even if it is really good, it is likely to burn through demand quickly as it is being shown on a huge number of screens and demand could be vastly sated by the end of the New Year weekend.

That would be my second guess. How did the second movie do? Is the series still on kids' radars in a big way?

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That would be my second guess. How did the second movie do? Is the series still on kids' radars in a big way?

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It did OK, less than the first if I recall but better critical response.

But name brand kiddie movies tend to make at least 60-100$ their first weekend, and KFP3 at least has name recognition, so by SWTFA 6th week, it should easily be able to beat the weekend totals (assuming around SWTFA at best might be at $40-50M)

It's hard to read how front loaded this will be. I see it maybe outgrossing Avatar overall but probably not beating it past the fifth or sixth weekend.

That said, I bet it stays in the top three through March.

Yeah, now that I'm looking at the numbers, Avatar, for instance, was seven weeks at number one. Titanic was 15...

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/bestranked.htm?page=WKNDSCAT1&p=.htm

Would be surprised to see it outdo deadpool. There is a lot of hype building for that. I know it is rated R, but that is a pro versus a con imo.

If KFP3 doesnt overtake it, then it'll be #1 until Zoolander 2.

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Would be surprised to see it outdo deadpool. There is a lot of hype building for that. I know it is rated R, but that is a pro versus a con imo.

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R is a good thing for fans, but will definitely hurt the box office.

How much of their $500 Million budget do you think Disney has made back in licensing?

Dodge & etc...

Mouse is flooding the market... trying to make that $4 Billion they paid Lucas back before the 2nd movie is finished filming.

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There is a chance that my 2 tickets for the 7 pm 3d IMAX showing on December 18th at the Santikos Palladium in San Antonio may be for sale. Would any of yall still need tickets in the San Antonio area? The wife and I Have moved to New Braunfels and it will be very hard to make this show time.

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You and your wife are losers.

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How much of their $500 Million budget do you think Disney has made back in licensing?

Dodge & etc...

Mouse is flooding the market... trying to make that $4 Billion they paid Lucas back before the 2nd movie is finished filming.

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I suspect Disney is playing the long game here. Hook kids now and create Star Wars fanatics in the same way they have turned the Hulk into a household name.

Did Disney buy out 100% of the action on merchandising? I would be shocked if Lucas gave that all up.

Regardless, it appears that half of Target and Toys R Us is Star Wars stuff.

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How much of their $500 Million budget do you think Disney has made back in licensing?

Dodge & etc...

Mouse is flooding the market... trying to make that $4 Billion they paid Lucas back before the 2nd movie is finished filming.

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I suspect Disney is playing the long game here. Hook kids now and create Star Wars fanatics in the same way they have turned the Hulk into a household name.

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My kids are getting $300+ of Star Wars toys for Christmas. I think the Mouse is going to do just fine....

First-round voting is over!

#1 Luke Skywalker def. #16 Lor San Tekka 100%-0%
# 2 Han Solo def. #15 General Hux 100%-0%
#3 Kylo Ren def. #14 Admiral Ackbar 58%-42%
#4 Finn def. #13 Maz Kanata 88%-12%
#5 Rey def. #12 Captain Phasma 88%-12%
#11 Princess Leia def. #6 Poe Dameron 54%-46%
#10 R2-D2 def. #7 BB8, 69%-31%
#8 Chewbacca def. #9 Supreme Leader Snoke, 69%-31%

Second-round matchups now open!

#1 Luke Skywalker vs. #8 Chewbacca
#2 Han Solo vs. #10 R2-D2
#3 Kylo Ren vs. #11 Princess Leia
#4 Finn vs. #5 Rey
[url=https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/QCB3VW3][/url]

Vote here.

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Did Disney buy out 100% of the action on merchandising? I would be shocked if Lucas gave that all up.

Regardless, it appears that half of Target and Toys R Us is Star Wars stuff.

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Yes, Disney wholesale bought Lucasfilm, not just the movie rights. Lucas, who had sole ownership of Lucasfilm, became one of the largest shareholders in Disney as part of the deal, so I think he'd be okay with Disney getting the merchandising dollars.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2012/10/30/disney-star-wars-lucasfilm/1669739/

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My kids are I am getting $300+ of Star Wars toys for Christmas. I think the Mouse is going to do just fine....

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Upset watch: Kylo "Don't call me Darth" Ren in a slugfest early this morning against a 58-year-old woman.

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First-round voting is over!

#1 Luke Skywalker def. #16 Lor San Tekka 100%-0%
# 2 Han Solo def. #15 General Hux 100%-0%
#3 Kylo Ren def. #14 Admiral Ackbar 58%-42%
#4 Finn def. #13 Maz Kanata 88%-12%
#5 Rey def. #12 Captain Phasma 88%-12%
#11 Princess Leia def. #6 Poe Dameron 54%-46%
#10 R2-D2 def. #7 BB8, 69%-31%
#8 Chewbacca def. #9 Supreme Leader Snoke, 69%-31%

Second-round matchups now open!

#1 Luke Skywalker vs. #8 Chewbacca
#2 Han Solo vs. #10 R2-D2
#3 Kylo Ren vs. #11 Princess Leia
#4 Finn vs. #5 Rey
[url=https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/QCB3VW3][/url]

Vote here.

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Well, my bracket is busted.

I had Akbar going to the Final Four.

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What will be the first movie in 2016 to knock The Force Awakens from the number one spot?

1/15 - 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
1/15 - The Fifth Wave
1/22 - The Boy
1/22 - Dirty Grandpa
1/29 - The Finest Hours
1/29 - Kung Fu Panda 3
2/05 - Pride and Prejudice and Zombies
2/12 - Deadpool
2/12 - Zoolander 2

My personal guess would be Zoolander 2. If so, The Force Awakens would have had EIGHT WEEKS at number one. I just can't see any of the others taking it down. Maybe Kung Fu Panda 3 or The Fifth Wave, but if TFA is even half as good as we're expecting, I just don't see it losing in January. Also, for the record, I've seen the Deadpool trailer twice in theaters now, both with sold out audiences, and it's fallen incredibly flat both times. Despite the fanboy hype, I really do think it's going to bomb, hence Zoolander 2 potentially being the first huge draw in 2016, and finally dethroning Star Wars.

Thoughts? Anyone here thinks it stays at number one PAST Zoolander 2?

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That's a good question.

KFP3 may take #1, but the second movie underperformed, it's been a few years in between and I don't really know of many actually asking for this movie. But, it's an animated kid's movie with a liked character.

Deadpool? Nope. That movie will tread water. Only fans of the character wanted this film and it has no broad appeal even among comic movie fans.

Zoolander 2? If KFP3 doesn't, this one probably will. It's coming out 14 years after the first, so I find it hard to gauge this one.

quote:

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What will be the first movie in 2016 to knock The Force Awakens from the number one spot?

1/15 - 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
1/15 - The Fifth Wave
1/22 - The Boy
1/22 - Dirty Grandpa
1/29 - The Finest Hours
1/29 - Kung Fu Panda 3
2/05 - Pride and Prejudice and Zombies
2/12 - Deadpool
2/12 - Zoolander 2

My personal guess would be Zoolander 2. If so, The Force Awakens would have had EIGHT WEEKS at number one. I just can't see any of the others taking it down. Maybe Kung Fu Panda 3 or The Fifth Wave, but if TFA is even half as good as we're expecting, I just don't see it losing in January. Also, for the record, I've seen the Deadpool trailer twice in theaters now, both with sold out audiences, and it's fallen incredibly flat both times. Despite the fanboy hype, I really do think it's going to bomb, hence Zoolander 2 potentially being the first huge draw in 2016, and finally dethroning Star Wars.

Thoughts? Anyone here thinks it stays at number one PAST Zoolander 2?

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Deadpool. Book it.

Is that like four complete Mauls falling or two Mauls cut in half?