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weird that Probst would defend a flaw in a game he has a financial stake in. you would think he would be pointing out any and all problems.

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He's not defending anything. Probst doesn't know his game is under attack by the all powerful TexAgs. He just happened to be reiterating what the game is in the context of last night's episode, and I just thought it was interesting because it's practically the same thing I explained yesterday.

[This message has been edited by 20ag07 (edited 12/9/2010 8:41a).]

you are right. texags is the only place in the universe where people have pointed this out.

again, I am shocked he didn't say "this game would be better if we fundamentally changed it"

If Sash, Fabio, Benry and Dan were smart they would've gotten together and blind-sided Chase. But of course, they aren't smart. They don't know Chase has Naonka's idol but then again Chase wouldn't have played it anyway because he's sitting there confident that no one is voting for him.

Everybody kept running around saying you don't want to go up against Jane in the finals but I'm pretty sure they shouldn't want to go up against Chase either.

Sash is sitting there all happy like he's controlling things now because he's on a majority alliance with individual immunity and the hidden immunity idol but he doesn't control anything. He would have been much better off casting his lot with the other 3.

[This message has been edited by TAMU_91 (edited 12/9/2010 8:49a).]

THIS SEASON IS 100% BORING!

Hard to get into this one. My wife and I have been fast forwarding almost the entire show because it is such a drag!

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Sash is sitting there all happy like he's controlling things now because he's on a majority alliance with individual immunity and the hidden immunity idol but he doesn't control anything. He would have been much better off casting his lot with the other 3.

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Sash is looking to get to the final 3. As it fell before this eviction, he was more of a lock to get in with Chase and Holly (they theoretically aren't stupid enough to let Jane get in). Benry/Fabio/Dan wouldn't let him in because they don't have a castoff- of the 4, Sash would be most likely to win, so he'd be booted. He needed to get rid of an athletic dude to increase his winning odds in immunity challenges so his choices are Benry and Chase. He went with the best odds to get to the end at this point. He was in 3rd place with Chase/Holly, 4th place with Dan/Fabio/Benry.

The biggest piece for him with that move is Holly. He now needs to use her to help oust Chase. With his Benry vote, he now could have her ear. If he had gone to the other side and evicted Chase this week, trying to team with Jane/Holly to evict Benry could have resulted in a 3-3 deadlock. Depending on how immunity falls, he could be looking at a 4-2 to oust Chase this week as long as he doesn't use the idol.

[This message has been edited by 20ag07 (edited 12/9/2010 9:39a).]

I hadn't thought of it that way. Makes sense.

Jane
Sash
Holly
Chase
Fabio
Dan

those are my order of most likely to win if they all went before the jury.

poor benery, benri benry however you spell your dumb name

Something working out doesn't stop it from being stupid. I could play Russian Roulette and survive...still stupid to do.

Interesting that puzzle took them over 25 minutes to figure out.

So it is now:

Holly, Jane and Chase vs Fabio and Dan.

With Sash as the uncommitted.

Sash and Chase with idols. So next to go would be Jane, Holly, Fabio or Dan presumably. Most likely Fabio if he does not win immunity, Dan if he does.

After the next vote, there will be six survivors.

No matter who you are you don't want Jane in the finals with you or Holly, they would win hands down, right? Dan would also be a sympathy vote getter. I would think that one these three would be the next to be targeted.

Is Chase stupid? There seems to be an argument for it but is he really? Is he going to make the Colby mistake and take Jane or Holly to the end? So didn't Sash tell everyone he has an idol? Does anyone know that Chase has one? Can't an idol held too long prove worthless at some point?

Time to guess the outcome. Last year I was no good at figuring it out as far as I can remember but why not go on record again.

Chase is not as dumb or loyal as he has shown so far. However Sash is not as smart as he thinks. Fabio or Dan (whichever is left)and Sash turn to Chase with the news that he is backing himself into a corner that is assured to lose him the money. They explain to him that taking either Holly or Jane or both is dumb. The best case for Chase is to go to the end with them and take his chances. Will Chase understand the logic once explained to him? I think so.

Dan or Fabio, Sash and Chase vote out either Holly or Jane depending on immunity and the dye is cast. Idols become obsolete and baring the remaining girl winning the next immunity it is a Chase, Sash and Dan or Fabio final.

If the remaining girl wins immunity then she is a shoe in for the money.

What do you think?





[This message has been edited by Straight Talk (edited 12/10/2010 4:17p).]

I think the only given is that Jane has Chase's back. All other relationships at this point are completely fluid. What we are left with are "alliances" that were thrust together, not ones that chose to be together. I think Holly could be convinced to oust Chase. I don't think Fabio and Dan are so much on the same team as they are "not on Jane and Chase's team".

Your real players left are Holly and Sash, and I think they will team up, and use Fabio as needed. And if Fabio gets far enough, he is a threat to win a few immunity challenges that might buy him some power.

I think it's a lot less "us vs. them" than in most seasons, and individual immunity will carry a lot more weight in determining the decisions.

[This message has been edited by 20ag07 (edited 12/10/2010 4:40p).]

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Dan would also be a sympathy vote getter.

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Dan is loaded and has been completely worthless. He could go up against Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden and get shut out on votes.

If Sash was smart he would sell Chase, Jane & Holly on getting rid of Fabio and then blindside Chase. Give Fabio his idol to protect him. Then pick off Holly & Jane.

Risky but its really his best move. It depends on whether or not he realizes that Chase is dumb enough to take Jane to the finals with him. He also is assuming that Dan & Fabio aren't smart enough to double cross him and vote him off if he gives up immunity.

Jane was a crazy *****. Throwing water on the fire might have cost her the fan vote prize.

Chase just lost any jury votes he might have had up to today (though really, it's doubtful he had any). I think he would even lose to Dan against the jury at this point. He might have even taken Holly down with him.

Fabio is sitting pretty- it will probably be a shootout between he and Chase or Sash on immunity challenges from here out (Chase on physical, Sash on mental). Not that he's that smart, but he played with Sash on the puzzle so he could save his ass.

How to win:
Fabio: could probably win the jury vote against anybody at this point. Needs to eliminate Chase and Sash since they are immunity challenge threats that will keep him out of the final 3.

Sash: His standing rose by the fact that he isn't Chase or Holly. Needs to be sitting in front of the jury with Chase and Dan to take the prize.

Holly: In the end, she and Chase were tied at the hip. His lies and promises and flip flopping probably will be her downfall because she is now tainted by all of it. Needs to be sitting with Dan and Chase at the end to win.

Chase: Too many promises to too many people from awards to alliances. NEVER promise anyone you will take them on a reward unless you are no threat to win the reward...Dan can make those promises all day long, it will never bite him. Chase is physical enough to be in the mix every challenge. Probably has come across as too mentally weak to win at this point. Might have a case against worthless Dan and slippery Sash, otherwise he's screwed. He suddenly became a great candidate for any other player to take to the final 3 though.

Dan: Still just happy to be here. Might actually be able to come in 2nd against Chase at this point, but I don't think he could pick up enough votes to win against any of the 4 remaining. Best chance is against Chase and Holly.

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Jane was a crazy *****. Throwing water on the fire might have cost her the fan vote prize.

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Disagree. Cracked me up. I think it CLINCHED her the fan favorite.

Its probably worth purposefully losing the reward challenge last night. no way to pick 2 other people and not screw yourself.

judd the stud has mommy issues.

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Might have a case against worthless Dan and slippery Sash, otherwise he's screwed. He suddenly became a great candidate for any other player to take to the final 3 though.

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but even then, I don't trust Chase to be able to come up with any kind of narrative where he doesn't end up just seeming really weak and wishy-washy, and that the moves were what other's wanted to do. I don't see him being able to make any kind of convincing jury speech.

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judd the stud has mommy issues.

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in his defense, his mom was kinda hot.

I guess Chase's only shot to win would have been to blind side Holly with a vote last night and hope the 3 outsiders also voted for her. Holly seems to be a person that understands that eventually alliances all fail and holding a grudge is childish. That would also have gotten Jane back in his corner.

frankly, i don't get how the 3 outsiders didn't vote Holly after Probst essentially explained that was their only shot.

[This message has been edited by BMX Bandit (edited 12/16/2010 8:44a).]

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frankly, i don't get how the 3 outsiders didn't vote Holly after Probst essentially explained that was their only shot.

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because this season is made up of mental midgets. for the same reason that sash and chase both used the idols on themselves, instead of one of them giving it to holly, so that they could protect the one person who was in a bit of danger.

Because isn't the tie breaker in a deadlock that those 2 people are then exempt from elimination? Holly/Jane (tie-breaker), Sash/Chase (immunity idols) and Fabio (individual immunity) all would have been exempt, so Dan would have gone by default, and nobody wants that.

I refuse to believe they don't think that far ahead, simply for lack of anything else to do for hours at camp. I don't think "you 3 should team up" was as much of a revelation as it appeared. You have to think it was considered and discarded. I think the reaction to Jeff's question was more of a "yeah, that would kinda make sense (but that's not what we're gonna do)".

i do think fabio knows his best chance was to get rid of jane. I think they ALL knew Jane would be just about unbeatable both in an endurance competition and in a final jury vote. they're not voting out dan (everyone wants to be next to him in the final vote). so there was really no advantage to doing anything last minute...vote out jane, who everyone wants out and figure that one of sash, chase or holly will turn on the other if a good enough case is made.

I think Fabio played it right and he's certainly setting himself up the best he can, assuming he can win immunity in the next couple challenges. at this point, he can probably make himself seem so aggrieved that chase might turn on sash or holly, realizing he couldn't beat them in a jury vote.

[This message has been edited by Doug Christie (edited 12/16/2010 9:08a).]

Why did Jane vote for Sash last night? After her conversation with Jeff, it really seemed like she understood that her only shot was for the three outsiders to vote for Holly, because Chase and Sash both had idols that they were going to play. It would still be a longshot trying to force the tie, but it was her only hope. She's the one who mentioned the idols, so obviously it was fresh on her mind.

It wouldn't have mattered anyway, because the other two voted for Jane, but how bizarre would it have been if Jane got three votes, Holly got two votes, and then when Jane's vote was revealed, it was.... Sash?

What was she thinking?

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I think Fabio played it right and he's certainly setting himself up the best he can, assuming he can win immunity in the next couple challenges.

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That's the other side of it- Fabio and Dan didn't necessarily see it as their only shot the way Jeff laid it out.

Holly/Sash/Chase were "exposed" as an alliance for the whole camp with Jane. Of course, if Jeff asks, they are all going to nod their head and say "yeah, we're in it together". But they aren't. They are in it together to get rid of Fabio/Jane because they are threats. But there is no "we are the final 3 together" loyalty between them. And I think they all know that, it just serves no purpose to say it outloud.

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how bizarre would it have been if Jane got three votes, Holly got two votes, and then when Jane's vote was revealed, it was.... Sash?

What was she thinking?

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You really don't think she proposed this idea to Dan/Fabio and was turned down? These people are stupid, but not that dumb. It's a rare tribal council where the evictee doesn't know what's going to happen before it does. I think Fabio and Benry both knew they were on the block last week, for instance. Fabio's strategy was to appear oblivious to it all, so as to seem less threatening than Benry (a similar strategy to the one Brenda used, but no one was buying it). Did Benry know he was for sure going home? He probably thought his sell job to dump Fabio worked, but he knew there was a decent chance.

While these people are poor strategizers, I don't think they are as oblivious to what's hapenning as editing makes it appear. Production tries to keep clear stories rolling for us, and they want the end of the ep to be something of a suprise. What we see on screen doesn't nearly tell all the story. When something seems completely dumb, it's more of an edit than complete stupidity. They may not be making the right choices, but they have to be considering all the choices.

[This message has been edited by 20ag07 (edited 12/16/2010 9:29a).]

Yes, I understand all of that. But it doesn't explain why Jane would have voted for Sash. Was it just to make a final "**** you" statement to him? She had to have known that her vote wouldn't count, so I guess she just wanted the opportunity to vote for him one more time, idol be damned?

I realize that she would have talked to Dan and Fabio about voting for Holly before tribal, and that was probably voted down by the two of them. In that case, Jane would have known that she was going home, just like you said (and like we all understand anyway). But that's not my point. My point is that if it were me, in one last hard-headed never-say-die attempt, I would have still voted for Holly just in case Dan and Fabio came around and surprised everyone with two more Holly votes. Voting for Sash does absolutely nothing, even if you know you're 99.9% sure that you're going home.

i think, in the end, jane is an emotional player. not to say she had no strategy, but I think it's much more likely that she'll react to things emotionally, than with rational thought (especially if an emotional response might make her feel better).

in the end, it didn't really matter, since it seems like everyone's minds were made up. but agreed that it still would have made more sense to vote for holly, just in case.

Oh, and I've never seen someone sob about their mommy before like that.

I think you're right with the emotional reaction idea. The vote for Sash still surprises me though, because if it was an emotional thing or if she was trying to make a statement of some kind, I would have expected a vote for Chase. Holly would have been the smart vote, Chase would have been the emotional vote, and Sash... I have no idea why she voted for him. Oh well... it wouldn't have mattered anyway.

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Jane was a crazy *****. Throwing water on the fire might have cost her the fan vote prize.

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I disagree as well. Funniest moment of the season. I loved the look on Fabio's face. Jane would get my vote.

I've only been watching for the past few seasons, but I thought in the case of a tie it goes to a revote with the two people tied not being able to vote. If the outsiders had voted Holly, and then after a revote Jane and Holly are still tied with two votes, it would go to a fire challenge. correct? If that's the case, Jane would obviously win. That's why her vote for Sash doesn't make any sense. I wish we could know exactly how things go down at camp without all of the editing.

I said a few weeks ago my vote was for Fabio to win, and I'm sticking to that. Can you imagine what his final speech would be like?

Maybe Jane thought Sash would give the idol to Holly, who knows.

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I've only been watching for the past few seasons, but I thought in the case of a tie it goes to a revote with the two people tied not being able to vote. If the outsiders had voted Holly, and then after a revote Jane and Holly are still tied with two votes, it would go to a fire challenge. correct? If that's the case, Jane would obviously win. That's why her vote for Sash doesn't make any sense. I wish we could know exactly how things go down at camp without all of the editing.

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this is how it used to be. now, if there's a tie, they revote. if no change, then the two people with equal votes are safe, and the other people draw rocks. the person who draws the colored rock (or whatever it is that differentiates it) goes home. so there's a lot of risk for the voters to maintain a tie. in this case, fabio was happy to send jane home, regardless of whether it puts him in a minority alliance. especially when you consider that sash/holly/chase are hardly a rock solid alliance.

It only makes sense if Jane got with Dan and Fabio before TC and discussed trying to make it look like they would all vote Holly, Sash would give her the idol and then they would blindside Sash. But in that case, both Chase and Sash both have idols, so you don't know which one would give Holly their idol. That plan seems too much of a shot in the dark. It seems that Jane's best and only move would try to get Fabio and Dan to force a tie.

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Its probably worth purposefully losing the reward challenge last night. no way to pick 2 other people and not screw yourself.

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I agree. I thought at the time that I would have taken Sash with my first pick because people may have at least seen that the dude hadn't ever been on a reward trip and obviously needed to eat something, but then I'd tell Jeff to let Sash have the 2nd pick.

Any way you slice it, three people are going to be pissed off. Might as well try to make them pissed off at someone else if you can. Either lose the challenge or let someone else do the picking.

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this is how it used to be. now, if there's a tie, they revote. if no change, then the two people with equal votes are safe, and the other people draw rocks. the person who draws the colored rock (or whatever it is that differentiates it) goes home. so there's a lot of risk for the voters to maintain a tie. in this case, fabio was happy to send jane home, regardless of whether it puts him in a minority alliance. especially when you consider that sash/holly/chase are hardly a rock solid alliance.

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Ah, I didn't know of that change. In that case, I can see how it all went down. So if Jane's vote for Sash was emotional, I wonder Chase would still get her vote in the final. She obviously hates Holly.

Well, well, I had more WTF moments last night than I can remember in a while. As I thought, Chase did realized how dangerous Jane would be to take to the final. One observation from last night is that we are talking about one of the lowest Survivor IQ groups that I can remember. Chase, you really chose to show your hand that far in advance by taking Sash and Holly?? If the three back at camp had any brains they would have started their strategy then and there. I understand editing and how it can skew how we think things are going but you are telling me Jane did not run to Dan and Fabio immediately after being told she was going by her own alliance? Dan, Fabio, Jane, even after being handed a possible, although defeatable plan, by Jeff to perhaps make it through the night, you still work against your own best interests and the new winning alliance being handed to you on a silver platter??? Jane, you brain trust you....SASH?? Like I said, WTF??

So what now? I feel like Chase has Holly and Fabio and Dan are tied together. Sash, who thinks he is positioned just right and may be the smartest of this overall dull bunch, knows that he does not want to make it to the final with Holly who can beat him in the vote. Sash can't go to Chase with this, can he? Won't he feel Chase is tied to Holly no matter what? So he goes the other way. Dan, do you and Fabio want to flip this deal our way, vote off Holly if available or Chase if she has immunity? Then hope to make it a Dan, Sash and Fabio final?

I am at the point where I believe that Dan can't win the vote and that Chase can't win the vote either. Holly can win the vote and Fabio could get the vote depending on who he is against. Sash? Can he win it? Maybe, if the jury thinks he was masterful at outwitting everyone.

My guess at this point is Holly out next or Chase if she has immunity.

Sash as the leading force takes Dan and Fabio to the final three and takes his chances with them.

Overall winner, suprise...........Fabio!

Why not?

sash's best chance is to take dan and chase with him. holly and fabio pose the biggest threats, though i could see the jury still voting for sash. brenda, marty and alina i can see voting for best strategic player (obviously sash). naonka, purple kelly and jane...who the hell knows. they're as likely to vote on emotion, who they like better or which finalist butters them up the most. so if it came down to sash, dan and chase, i think holly and fabio could easily vote for sash.

there's still too many permutations, i really don't have the time to figure out who's win in each scenario, but at this point, I'd put them in order from most to least likely to win:

fabio
sash
holly
dan
chase

chase has completely screwed himself to where i honestly think dan might beat him if it were a final 2.