HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Back to actual news for those actually interested in the investment.

Following the ABML PR, BMIX has a new PR. 2 new permits received.

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Don't you think the positives and the negatives should be considered when discussing long term investments? You seem to post good news quite frequently.

In the event you didn't have enough BMIX friends at the craps table, here is a whole new forum dedicated to other loyalists degenerates:

https://investorshub.advfn.com/Brazil-Minerals-Inc-BMIX-26153/

SquareOne07 said:

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Out of curiosity, having never played in the penny-sandbox before, what target price would you consider to be a winner in your long hold?

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Good question. I'm about an 8 on the greedy scale. But I have a lot of other assets/investments, and I have zero interest in paying a lot of short term capital gains taxes at my income level. I put this in excel and it looks like $.20 in BMIX and $20 in ABML would be a nice spot for me to get out. But so much will happen between now and then who knows.

ebdb_bnb said:

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Back to actual news for those actually interested in the investment.

Following the ABML PR, BMIX has a new PR. 2 new permits received.

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Don't you think the positives and the negatives should be considered when discussing long term investments? You seem to post good news quite frequently.

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If there has been bad news released by all means release it. I am highly invested in this and would love to see it.

Jet Black said:

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If you don't own BMIX, or have no attention of owning it, why don't you F off somewhere else.

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Feel free to block me if you my questions/comments hurt your feelings.

Didn't mean it that way. If I were putting money I couldn't stand to lose I wouldn't have taken a position in both companies. I had really never thought about it, but lithium just seems to have a future however short term it may be.

jja79 said:

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Didn't mean it that way. If I were putting money I couldn't stand to lose I wouldn't have taken a position in both companies. I had really never thought about it, but lithium just seems to have a future however short term it may be.

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I think the lithium cycle is far from "short term". Are you following the news today about the federal EV plan and GM's plans? Lithium is about to explode.

If you're interested in a long term fundamental lithium outlook, here is a free one by Platts. (I'm sure someone will tell us Platts is part of a pump and dump scheme and isn't reputable but here it is anyway).

https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/articles/lithium-supply-is-set-to-triple-by-2025-will-it-be-enough

2025-2030 shortages very likely. Also note that this analysis is before Biden one and before the emphasis on opening up US mining regulations.

Looks like a direct competitor to ABML? Located close to Tesla #1. They are up 300%+ today.

https://apnews.com/press-release/globe-newswire/environment-and-nature-eco-friendly-practices-recycling-environment-north-america-2b7fd9d555a32788c2864f2cd9d1e249

South Platte said:

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Looks like a direct competitor to ABML? Located close to Tesla #1. They are up 300%+ today.

https://apnews.com/press-release/globe-newswire/environment-and-nature-eco-friendly-practices-recycling-environment-north-america-2b7fd9d555a32788c2864f2cd9d1e249

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Yup. Lithium is the future. Posted several times that about 20 plays will take off. ABML has gone from $.02 to $2.90 or whatever it's at in a short period of time.

Forgive my ignorance.

Paid content story? Could this be a P&D? How many companies are likely to be front runners 8n Lithium (1, 2, maybe 3)??

Genuine, curious questions. Not doo-dooing anything. Has been fun reading this thread, your responses, etc. I'm not in either of these plays, but lithium/EV does seem to be a common sense trend to potentially get in on. Just wondering what DD you've done on this aspect:

Is ABML's biggest play right now the recycling plant? That's what they're permitting, land purchase in Nevada, groundbreaking announcement for the facility, majority of their attention seems to be on it, etc. Recycling requires core returns, to then feed the plant to extract, recycle, put back into market. How are they going to get input into the recycling plant? They'd have to partner with dealerships, garages, auto shops, etc. And have an operational collection network. A recycling plant without input can't produce output, right? Just like a MFG plant can't produce without raw materials. What's the available battery float look like? How often are EV batteries being replaced/going bad, how many EV's are on the road now, how many could be on the road in a few years, etc. Do government subsidies provide part of their income? Is it affordable to recycle lithium and sell to car manufacturers, commodity brokers, etc... or is it cheaper to mine/extract? Why buy from a recycler if I can buy from a miner cheaper?

I know that's a lot of curiousity and you probably don't have answers to all that... but just curious if you have some general thoughts/insight along that general line of questioning.
I have a difficult time seeing how they generate revenue/profit given I don't understand the answers to some of those questions.

LatinAggie1997 said:

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Forgive my ignorance.

Paid content story? Could this be a P&D? How many companies are likely to be front runners 8n Lithium (1, 2, maybe 3)??

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1. I'll post it below. I subscribe and forgot.
2. I have no idea how to identify a pump and dump. Usually people who chase stocks get bitter because they got in late and call it that. This is a long hold for me.
3. 20 or so lithium stocks have upside in the US. Not all have land and talent like ABML.

Lithium supply is set to triple by 2025. Will it be enough?
Author Emmanuel Latham Ben Kilbey Abdulrhman Ehtaiba
Lithium prices plummeted in 2019, as the market tipped into oversupply and EV growth slowed. Production of the battery metal is set to almost triple by 2025 to more than 1.5 million metric tons, but there are concerns that a fall in upstream investment could flip the market into undersupply further out.

Lithium is an integral component of batteries for electric vehicles. As EV purchases have rocketed over 2 million vehicles were sold in 2018 alone, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics so has the need for batteries, in turn fueling lithium demand.

On the expectation of further fast growth, investment has flowed into the lithium supply chain at a brisk pace over the past few years. However, prices have dropped this year, drawing down with them enthusiasm for new projects.

One project facing difficulties is Nemaska Lithium's Whabouchi mine in Quebec, Canada. Nemaska recently announced layoffs as it attempts to ensure optimal cash flow for the continuation of the Whabouchi project.

Another is China's Tianqi Lithium's plant in Western Australia, which began lithium hydroxide production in September. Alongside the start of operations, Tianqi announced the postponement of the second half of the 48,000 mt/year project, citing poor global lithium prices for the delay to the plant, which was initially expected to be commissioned in full by the end of 2019.

At the same time, industry participants warn that the headline fall in prices does not tell the full story. They argue that the present situation is short term, with demand for higher-quality grades set to recover, while the mismatch between lithium spodumene supply and processing capacity bottlenecks in China, a factor in current price weakness, will be shortlived.

Nevertheless, the weak market has led to greater caution among investors and suggests potential for a tighter supply picture in the later part of the next decade. The industry will have to adjust to the new conditions and straighten out the kinks in the supply chain, in order to achieve a sustainable supply that can fuel the unfolding transport revolution.

Lithium producers

Lithium is mainly sourced from either spodumene or brine. Australia is home to the majority of hard rock (spodumene) mines, while brine production is concentrated in South America, mainly in Chile and Argentina.

Despite the press attention garnered by South American brine operations in the past few years, it is Australia where supply has grown rapidly, with shorter project lead times of only 3-5 years seeing a flurry of hard rock mines pop up. In contrast, brine projects can take 7 years to go into production.

Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide are the two lithium compounds employed for battery cathode production, with carbonate currently making up the bulk of usage. In brine production lithium chloride is extracted from alkaline brine lakes before being converted to carbonate.



The spodumene produced by hard rock mining requires further processing to produce carbonate a particularly energy intensive, and therefore costly, process.

Lithium hydroxide, favored for newer cathode technologies, specifically higher nickel chemistries, can be produced from either spodumene or brine. When starting with brine, an extra conversion step from lithium carbonate is required. Hydroxide is typically priced at a premium to reflect this, although this margin has been coming under pressure as production straight from spodumene has increased.

New mines and increased production have brought a glut of material to market, hammering lithium prices. The S&P Global Platts assessment for lithium spodumene concentrate with 6% lithium oxide content (SC6) has fallen from $640/mt FOB Australia in January 2019 to $545/mt in September 2019.

The abundance of spodumene supply and subsequent low price has drawn down input costs for Chinese converters, seeing the Platts lithium carbonate CIF North Asia assessment fall 22% over the same period to sit at $9,900/mt October 17.

Go deeper: Explore S&P Global Platts' battery metals coverage

"There seems to have been a short-term build-up of lithium raw material during 2019 which has fed through into short term lithium pricing (and lithium company share prices)." Asa Bridle, of lithium developer Savannah Resources told Platts.

Bridle also argued that the present spodumene oversupply was due to delays in downstream conversion capacity coming online in China, "The key is to recognize this as a short-term imbalance in the market and not necessarily an indication of longer term trends."

Vincent Ledoux Pedailles of Infinity Lithium took a similar view, citing expectations that the present oversupply would last until 2020 before balancing the year after. "Spodumene is exported to China mostly to third party converters where the conversion into lithium chemicals is inefficient." He added that miners were looking at integrating conversion capacity to "better control their value chain and improve their margins."

It is also worth noting that the supply/demand imbalance has been exacerbated by slower than projected electric vehicle sales in 2019, due in part to Chinese subsidy cuts in July, but also to a broader downturn in global automotive sales.

When talking about an oversupply of lithium, Bacanora Lithium CEO Peter Secker pointed out that it is important to distinguish between the lower-grade hard rock material coming out of Australia that requires additional processing and carbon footprint, and the chemical grade material used in batteries.

"There's a lot of low grade concentrate around but the battery grade material is pretty balanced. Generally speaking, Australian production is at the higher end of the cost curve, with South American at the lower end," Secker added.

This has seen wider argument that Australian hard rock mining could find itself in the role of swing production, with projects coming on and offline as the price dictates. Meanwhile, brine projects with more favorable positions on the cost curve would be able to operate under all but the most extreme low prices.

Lithium supply growth

Looking ahead, S&P Global Market Intelligence forecasts substantial growth in lithium supply until 2025. New mines and brine lakes, coupled with expanded output from several existing projects should put global lithium production above 1.5 million mt on a lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) basis.

Australia, presently the largest producing nation, is set to maintain its position, with existing mines (many of which came online in the last three years) steadily ramping up production, bringing over 400,000 mt LCE of new supply by 2025.

South America is also set to see supply growth of around 199%, new brine lakes are beginning production and most existing salars are expected to increase output. With longer lead times, the oncoming brine projects were probably in the same batch of funding as the hard rock mines that have come online in Australia since 2016.

With the Authier, Rose and Whabouchi mines set to come online before 2025, North America's share of lithium supply is set to increase to over 5%, potentially allaying some fears around North America's present minor role in the EV battery chain.

Europe, however, is expected to add only one new lithium source by 2025, marginally increasing its share of global supply. With potential for 25 battery gigafactories to be operational across the continent by 2025, Europe looks set to remain dependent on non-domestic raw material supply even as the European Commission has thrown its weight behind developing the sector and ensuring security of raw material supply

Keeping up with EVs

Despite the present oversupply, and near threefold supply growth expected by 2025, there is a strong argument that further out, as momentum builds, demand could outweigh supply.

"If forecasts for EV penetration are to be believed along with the billions of dollars car companies have sunk or will sink into EV development and production then lithium demand is set to increase 10-fold over the next decade." Bridle said.

He added that, given the reliance of cathode and battery producers on lithium supply, there was strong incentive for supply investment from downstream users. "The lithium sector has provided some good examples of this trend already with lithium chemicals companies, battery companies and even car companies investing or partnering with raw material suppliers/miners."

Pedailles also stressed the need for greater investment into raw materials, "If low prices remain in the short- to medium- term, it will lead to a reduced investment pipeline. This in turn will lead to an even more dramatic undersupply situation down the line and much higher prices."

Success during present low prices would align to producer size, Bacanora's Secker said, stressing that large investments were still flowing into the lithium supply chain from established majors. He also argued that companies with partnerships or joint ventures would be more resilient.

"The junior companies who want to develop projects alone will struggle," Secker said.

TamuKid said:

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Genuine, curious questions. Not doo-dooing anything. Has been fun reading this thread, your responses, etc. I'm not in either of these plays, but lithium/EV does seem to be a common sense trend to potentially get in on. Just wondering what DD you've done on this aspect:

Is ABML's biggest play right now the recycling plant? That's what they're permitting, land purchase in Nevada, groundbreaking announcement for the facility, majority of their attention seems to be on it, etc. Recycling requires core returns, to then feed the plant to extract, recycle, put back into market. How are they going to get input into the recycling plant? They'd have to partner with dealerships, garages, auto shops, etc. And have an operational collection network. A recycling plant without input can't produce output, right? Just like a MFG plant can't produce without raw materials. What's the available battery float look like? How often are EV batteries being replaced/going bad, how many EV's are on the road now, how many could be on the road in a few years, etc. Do government subsidies provide part of their income? Is it affordable to recycle lithium and sell to car manufacturers, commodity brokers, etc... or is it cheaper to mine/extract? Why buy from a recycler if I can buy from a miner cheaper?

I know that's a lot of curiousity and you probably don't have answers to all that... but just curious if you have some general thoughts/insight along that general line of questioning.
I have a difficult time seeing how they generate revenue/profit given I don't understand the answers to some of those questions.

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$200 million of revenue off the Nevada plant in year one alone. They will recycle, mine, and distribute lithium. I'm guessing you haven't read the research or watched the videos posted. If you just look right above your post many of those EV questions are answered.

They have 7 Tesla employees. I'm gonna guess they partner with Tesla.

Do you have an opinion on BRLL that just went up (as referenced above)?

For the newbies on here. Lots of questions answered. For the people asking if this is a "pump and dump", ask yourself these questions:

1. Would DuPont and BASF work with a "pump and dump"?
2. Would the department of energy validate and fast track ABML's lithium technology with a $4.5 million grant this week if it wasn't legit?
3. Why would American Minerals JV with a pump and dump?

Madagascar said:

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Do you have an opinion on BRLL that just went up (as referenced above)?

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Never even heard of them. Can't help you.

HoustonAggie37713 said:

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GE said:

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NTXAg10 said:

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GE said:

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

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I couldn't disagree more, and my holdings show that.

This "small start up with limited resources" has a market cap of $1.58 billion.

1. Patents, permits, and land to recycle and mine lithium
2. A board of highly connected people, talented techies, and former Tesla execs
3. Favorable political winds.

By all means you should avoid it. And please come back in a year. I'll be here.

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The patents thing I am curious about - their prospectus filed recently said clearly that they hold no patents.

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Agree with this. As previously mentioned, I took a flyer on this last week and am definitely up in my position. However, Houston has indicated they hold 10s of patents a few times and this is in direct conflict with their prospectus. I'd like to see a source for this claim.

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It does say that have internally developed technology and a recycling process so maybe patents pending?

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https://patents.justia.com/inventor/ryan-melsert


I will dig up the count tomorrow. ABML keeps hiring people with patents. They fast track them as "trade secrets" to be able to use them quickly. I believe it's 34 patents and counting. It's also documented several times in this thread. I just can't dig it up every time someone asks. I have a job, a wife, a 20 month old son, rental properties, etc. I'm doing my best.

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This is an impressive most of patents but most have been assigned to Tesla or a research group. There are a few that are still pending in Melsert's name, but they seem to have been filed prior to Melsert's onboarding at ABML.

According to Melsert's employment contract, ABML is only entitled to assignment of patents developed while serving as an employee of ABML. Have there been any agreements in additon to Melserts contract for assignment of pending patents to ABML upon granting?

If not, does ABML intend to license Melserts patents to secure rights to the technology that can last beyond the end of Melsert's 3 year employment contract? If not, it seems like a major risk to rely on retaining a single employee to keep hold of your own critical technology.

Or is Melsert expected to create a new process using new tech that he has yet to file for patent protection? (The resulting IP on which would be assigned to ABML under the terms of his contract)

That has been addressed. Page 16.

Do you mind pointing me in the right direction then? I've read the thread, but I don't recall anything about assignment of pending patents to ABML.

Edit: Page 16, ill go take a look.

Madagascar said:

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Do you have an opinion on BRLL that just went up (as referenced above)?

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According to Google they have 3 employees and a market cap of $4MM and their website says they are a hemp company (??).

That is actually the post that raised the concern about assignment of patents.

Most of Melsert's patents are not his to take to new employers. They have been assigned to his previous employers. Meaning the previous employer owns the patent, not Melsert.

He does have some patents pending, which led me to dig up his employment contract to see of there is a clause about assignment of any pending patents to ABML as part of the terms of his employment, but I did not see any such clause.

My concern is that Melsert may have the know-how, but in the absence of an assignment of patent rights to ABML, or a long term licensing agreement that guarantees ABML exclusive rights to Melsert's tech, ABML seems very dependent on Melsert's continued employment for its future, which is particularly concerning for a long term hold seeing as how Melsert is over a year into a 3 year contract already.

Thanks for answering. BRLL seems to be more environmentally conscious than BMIX which made me curious. It will be interesting to me to watch.

Houston apologize if I am regurgitating , however, do you have thoughts about new battery technologies displacing lithium?

He meant BRRL, not BRLL.

"ABML keeps hiring people with patents. They fast track them as "trade secrets" to be able to use them quickly."

This makes no sense. A trade secret is something you keep.... a secret, ie no patent filing and no protection if it gets out short of suing someone who intentionally did it while under non disclosure constraints. A patent filing is a very public affair and grants you exclusive rights to the tech for a term in exchange for putting it out into the public. There is no treating a patent or a pending application as a trade secret. They either have trade secrets or they have patents, not both (for the same tech), they obviously can hold both patents and protectable trade secrets.

I bought both ABML and BMIX fyi, so not piling on, I appreciate threads like this, but just wanted to point this out.

brznby said:

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Houston apologize if I am regurgitating , however, do you have thoughts about new battery technologies displacing lithium?

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I am the wrong person to comment on that.

When I took the buy order out last night you mentioned maybe when to give a green light. I guess today wasn't that day, but could you take a look at when a good entry point may be?