I understand and ready knew all you just said. I still prefer their approach. But thx for the reply. Every single country in the world is going to see a drop in GDP, that's a given. Theirs will be less if they stay more open. They will also be over the Chinese virus before others as will.

TXAggie2011 said:

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dermdoc said:

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PJYoung said:

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The 350k figure is from March 25. They are over 500k now, close to 1% of their entire population. I dont agree that somehow S Korea has missed this huge population that would test positive when they isolated and almost completely stopped the spread in the first 2 weeks. How many have died there now, 200?

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So we will agree to disagree. I think there is a large number of asymptomatic positives there. You do not.

And nobody knows yet. For our sakes, I hope I am correct

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It's unlikely South Korea missed "a lot" of cases, their curve of confirmed cases wouldn't plummet like that.

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Sure they would if there had already been a lot of asymptomatic cases. Nobody knows right now. But the California and even Washington numbers at least suggest some previous immunity. But I am not going to convince you. That much is obvious.

You do understand that the end results will not be known for months right?

I am just saying I prefer their approach. If you want to quarantine yourself fine with me. I should be allowed to work while being safe. It's been long enough. It should be my decision.

dermdoc said:

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So how do you explain California?

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What about it?

California Ag 90 said:

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TXAggie2011 said:

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Why do you think you would ever convinced anyone of anything with one liners and ad hominums.

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maybe because you are equally culpable of attempting the same?

honest question: is there any data on a large scale randomized test in South Korea yet?

the vast majority of their testing, for all the right reasons so far, has focused on those who are exhibiting some level of symptom.

until there is a statistically valid sample large scale random sample of South Korean populace for antibodies and / or infection then we simply do not know the scale of this infection yet. that's just truth.

if that sample has been done in S. Korea, somebody please share it - i've googled and not found that as yet.

this debate will continue until results of random samples are available.

until then its all 'one liners and ad hominums' from passionate folks convinced of the absolute certain correctness of the current public policy, or those convinced that this is a vast conspiracy.

both sides make me weary.

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Amen. I should have learned by now.

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TheAngelFlight said:

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Just about everything Dermdoc says is a one liner and attack on someone. That's the problem. That's why just about every thread he involves himself in, on this board or any other board, turns into a **** show if it wasn't one already.

Both of you ignored 2011's long post above and skipped over to turn up the personal feud.

Quote:

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you stated that 'half of californians spend their week in a car by themselves in a car on the 405'.


that statement was absurd

your second statement is a much more rational and debatable point worth discussing. but it is not remotely what you originally stated.

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Those are basically the same thing. I think if you weren't looking to be offended, you'd see they're certainly "remotely" related.

I'm not sure its all that debatable. A disease whose spread requires proximity let loose in the most dense and proximate populace in the country by a large margin?

There are other aggravating factors, but its difficult to even fathom how urban design hasn't played a major role in leading the NYC area down the path its gone.

Did you see that thread about the German study of "super-spreading events?" That's basically all of NYC every day on subways and sidewalks.

As of today, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut are 1, 2, and 5 in infection rates. And it should come as no surprise that Washington D.C. is 6.

Louisiana is 3. New Orleans is a very public society and had Mardi Gras going on in. (We'll have to see where they track the outbreak to, for sure.)

Massachusetts is 4. Another fairly dense population that spends a lot of time on public transportation and in busy public spaces.

The states with low numbers are largely more on the rural/spread out side. Montana, North Dakota, Alaska, Oklahoma, etc.

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the Bay area is heavily dependent on mass transit and densely populated and half the population of San Francisco does not spend their week in a car by themselves on the 405, or 101, 680, 280, or any other freeway for that matter. those two statements are not remotely 'the same thing'.

i've got no argument at all with the rest of your post, but i don't think I ignored his long post above.

using the Korean statistics as some sort of proof that we understand the nature of this outbreak is a problem.

they have tested only symptomatic cases - not sampled the whole population. until they do we don't really understand this bug yet.

their new cases are trailing off, and that does indicate they somehow caught this and contained it, but it says nothing one way or another about asymptomatics and actual infection rate of the overall population, as they are not testing asymptomatic (randomly testing) populace even today.

a lot about this mess doesn't make sense, beyond just South Korea. Wuhan having 5M people scatter to the wind across China after the outbreak but before lockdown, and not triggering mass outbreaks in other cities, makes NO sense. even with China lying their asses off, a major outbreak in Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, or any other metro area with ongoing communication to export business markets, could not have been kept quiet.

only random antibody testing of the populations in each country will start to clear this up. right now we are groping in the dark, making massive decisions on partial information - decisions that will haunt us for a long long time.

Places where large groups of people can catch the Covid from strangers
Large gatherings chirch, concerts sporting events cancelled until further notice
Your kid brings it home from school also closed
Airtravel, Cruises, also closed
public transportation pretty much the only transmission vector out there

Thought was the weather ? One-liner ??

dermdoc said:

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RGV AG said:

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Quote:

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Just about everything Dermdoc says is a one liner and attack on someone. That's the problem. That's why just about every thread he involves himself in, on this board or any other board, turns into a **** show if it wasn't one already.

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Angel:
Speaking in generalities with a broad brush while slighting someone is really low brow. Dermdoc is Dermdoc, and he will surely get belly to belly and toe to toe with anyone in a discussion, but he defends his position from an educated and experienced view point and he is factual in his assertions. He is not always right, and I and others don't always agree with him. But he does not attack posters outright and he has deep, and well deserved, convictions in his beliefs and opinions.

His opinion is not infallible, nobodies is. For you to say that whatever discourse he has turns to crap is just asinine and immature.

What is obvious is many on here can't have a pointed educated discussion without getting their panties in a bundle. Your attack added nothing to this thread, except to further derail it.

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What is revealing is that I was the only one who said I could be wrong(read the thread). I am definitely not infallible. And will freely admit it.

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Of all the posters that I give the benefit of the doubt to, Dermdoc and RGV are both high on the list.

RGV is good people. I am kind of a turd.

Then you haven't seen my OB posts

California Ag 90 said:

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TXAggie2011 said:

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Californians spend half of their week in a car by themself on the 405. I think that's a big reason why they've not had the severe problems that the NYC metro are has seen.

Is that what you're asking?

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and there you go - perfect illustration.

that statement is utterly absurd. the very definition of the sort of nonsense 'one liner' generalization you are accusing others of.

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I live on LA County. What exactly is wrong with this statement?

Philip J Fry said:

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Beat the Hell said:

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Yeah. The bulk of virus cheerleaders here irk me too. I'll see an idiotic statement that I could not disagree with more get starred.

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Nobody is rooting for the virus and I get tired of being labeled as one Just for presenting the facts.

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Agree completely. And you have not attacked others for having different opinions.
And nothing is wrong with what Ag2011 posted there. I welcome all opinions.