Mortality rate is 68 per 1,000,000? 0.007%

Yeah that isn't a lot.

"Sweden's Strategy Backfired"

Umm that's opinion stated as a fact.

/coronabro

Their CFR is 8.1%

Their infections are on the increase, obviously, and they have the highest fatality rate by far of any Nordic country.

For comparison's sake, the US is at about 39 deaths per 1 million population at the moment.

Certainly, Sweden's rate is still a fraction of Italy/Spain scenarios, but almost 1/3rd of all Swedish deaths have taken place in the past 2 days.

That rate will obviously move up, but it will most likely move up quite swiftly. Based on approach, they'll likely start to look like the Netherlands, which just had its worst day of deaths by a significant margin and is now at 131 deaths per 1 million.

Deaths per million population, not cases.

They're lower than the larger European countries but much higher than the US.

You would think Finland/Norway should be close to Sweden. Their numbers are 7 and 17 per million respectively. I'm not sure if they took a different approach or not.

And Sweden will likely be changing course:

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A recent article in The Guardian reported that the Swedish government is in the process of drawing up "extraordinary" legislation to deal with the growing threat posed by COVID-19. The death toll in Sweden, which is nearing 500, is significantly higher than some of its Nordic neighbors who have adopted a more hands-on approach to fighting the virus. Norway, for instance, has only tallied 76 COVID-19 deaths thus far, perhaps because they went all in on early prevention efforts, including closing schools, banning cultural events, and even prohibiting "cabin holidays."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/traversmark/2020/04/06/swedens-covid-19-fear-is-catching-up-to-the-rest-of-the-world/#7f0dad5b637e

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russ05 said:

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You would think Finland/Norway should be close to Sweden. Their numbers are 7 and 17 per million respectively. I'm not sure if they took a different approach or not.

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Norway's approach was much more strict and aggressive. This is a decent account of the Norwegian and Swedish approaches: https://blogs.prio.org/2020/03/norway-and-sweden-battling-coronavirus-in-two-different-worlds/

It is written by a Swede living in Norway, so that adds some unique perspective.

I don't know much about the Finnish approach, but I think it was cautious and something of a middle-ground that's gradually become stricter.

Stating the obvious, but keep in mind that the number of deaths will go up, but the population will not, so that deaths per million number will only skyrocket from here.

It would be interesting (albeit awful) to see a country just let it rip through in an unabated blaze of death, quickly gaining immunity and being done with the whole thing over a relatively short time.

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It would be interesting (albeit awful) to see a country just let it rip through in an unabated blaze of death, quickly gaining immunity and being done with the whole thing over a relatively short time.

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I'm not sure we'll get to see it, at least in the developed world.

The UK's government quickly realized they didn't have the stomach for it, and it sounds like Dutch and Swedish stomachs are getting rather queasy.

The key factor that will not be evident anytime soon is, will their strategy speed up the infection rate and get them free and clear sooner?

The first countries to be "recovered" and in a position to economically set the table for "post coronavirus" will be WAY better off than a country that is continually fighting it off.

fightingfarmer09 said:

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The key factor that will not be evident anytime soon is, will their strategy speed up the infection rate and get them free and clear sooner?

The first countries to be "recovered" and in a position to economically set the table for "post coronavirus" will be WAY better off than a country that is continually fighting it off.

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The latter assertion is debatable, and the limited literature is not really supportive of that hypothesis.

And a complicating issue is the Swedish economy is based on trade. They don't have an economy well positioned to operate in isolation. But, I think we ought to avoid venturing deeper into that conversation.


As to the first paragraph, I agree that we'll need a lot more time as that may be the result of their approach.

But, just an academic point, the Swedes bet on their population behaving so well as to prevent some/alot of the spread. So, I wouldn't necessarily characterize their approach as one designed to just rip the band-aid off. I think that's more of the Dutch view, and they're backing off of it.

Sweden is an interesting case study.
They are slightly larger than California area wise, with around 1/4 of the population. They have no cities over a million people. Comparing them to the US isn't a good comparison, but when you compare them to other Nordic countries their deaths per million currently are 68, Norway is 17 and Finland is 7.
The question that no one has been able to quantify is "what's an acceptable loss for the sake of the larger economy"? There is a number, we wouldn't shut the whole economy down to save one 105 year old woman who had terminal cancer so that she could live another few weeks. Heck we don't shut it down now for flu, which averages 32k deaths a year. Everyone falls somewhere on the spectrum between that Extreme case though and "only if it means certain death for everyone".
But if the question is solely about lives, Sweden's decision is being proven to be the wrong one.

Give this one time. The virus is breaking out there pretty quickly, and everything has remained open: bars, restaurants, etc.

If I had to guess, things are about to get really ugly, really quickly there.

jm94 said:

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Seven Costanza said:

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It would be interesting (albeit awful) to see a country just let it rip through in an unabated blaze of death, quickly gaining immunity and being done with the whole thing over a relatively short time.

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Perhaps North Korea is doing this.

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Nope, they're likely treating with a prescription of lead administered at high velocities.

It will be interesting to look at per capita rates and CFR over the next 4-6 weeks with aggressive interventions like USA finally took vs Sweden basically doing nothing.

your statistics belie your comments.

i would wager that on 12/31 if we compare Sweden's response to the rest of the world, in terms of per capita casualties AND impact on GDP/economic damage and its impact on public health, Sweden will be no worse than par on COVID casualties, and exceptional on GDP.

the data, when compiled after this is over, will be objective and undeniable, unlike the public commentary since this outbreak started..

our emotion laden public health policy is doing grave damage to public trust, which was already fragile.

Seven Costanza said:

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It would be interesting (albeit awful) to see a country just let it rip through in an unabated blaze of death, quickly gaining immunity and being done with the whole thing over a relatively short time.

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See most countries in Africa in a few weeks.

California Ag 90 said:

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your statistics belie your comments.

i would wager that on 12/31 if we compare Sweden's response to the rest of the world, in terms of per capita casualties AND impact on GDP/economic damage and its impact on public health, Sweden will be no worse than par on COVID casualties, and exceptional on GDP.

the data, when compiled after this is over, will be objective and undeniable, unlike the public commentary since this outbreak started..

our emotion laden public health policy is doing grave damage to public trust, which was already fragile.

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Literally almost every government in the world is doing what we have been doing and there are several that have been much more strict than we have been.

And do you really not think Sweden is about to go to a strict lock down like everybody else?

Not to mention, lock down or not, when the deaths mount up the economic damage is going to be done. People aren't going to go to concerts or movie theaters or restaurants or bars when they are fearful that they are putting their health in danger.

Have you seen Ecuador? They are running out of burial plots. (they have officially said only 220 have died of the virus so far)

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/ecuador-builds-emergency-cemeteries-amid-rising-deaths-coronavirus-cases-n1179091

This is like saying a guy that went out in a 5:30 in the first mile of a marathon made a mistake because the guy that went out in four minutes for the first mile has a huge lead.

There is no way of knowing right now if Sweden made a mistake. Maybe they take their lumps and have herd immunity in July and the rest of the world is still trying to tip toe around how to get through this and end up taking the same amount of lumps spread out over two years.

jm94 said:

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Seven Costanza said:

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It would be interesting (albeit awful) to see a country just let it rip through in an unabated blaze of death, quickly gaining immunity and being done with the whole thing over a relatively short time.

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Perhaps North Korea is doing this.

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their population is always in lockdown

PJYoung said:

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California Ag 90 said:

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your statistics belie your comments.

i would wager that on 12/31 if we compare Sweden's response to the rest of the world, in terms of per capita casualties AND impact on GDP/economic damage and its impact on public health, Sweden will be no worse than par on COVID casualties, and exceptional on GDP.

the data, when compiled after this is over, will be objective and undeniable, unlike the public commentary since this outbreak started..

our emotion laden public health policy is doing grave damage to public trust, which was already fragile.

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Literally almost every government in the world is doing what we have been doing and there are several that have been much more strict than we have been.

And do you really not think Sweden is about to go to a strict lock down like everybody else?

Not to mention, lock down or not, when the deaths mount up the economic damage is going to be done. People aren't going to go to concerts or movie theaters or restaurants or bars when they are fearful that they are putting their health in danger.

Have you seen Ecuador? They are running out of burial plots. (they have officially said only 220 have died of the virus so far)

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/ecuador-builds-emergency-cemeteries-amid-rising-deaths-coronavirus-cases-n1179091

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let's let the data tell the tale come 12/31.

we are here now because social media has made logic-driven public policy impossible - no politician, regardless of nation or political system, can withstand the howling mob that erupts over any death or anecdote like graves in Equador - even though EVERY public policy decision in health matters results in deaths (medicare, medicaid, opiate availability, vaccination requirements, the list goes on and on and every one has a statistical impact on death rates).

we are counting any coincident death with COVID as COVID. we are far below model projections regardless of geography. the poverty we are creating will kill people. those are just data-driven realities as of today. perhaps that will change for the worse - i hope not, but we will certainly see in time.

and no, i don't think Sweden will lock down. let's talk on 12/31.

California Ag 90 said:

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PJYoung said:

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California Ag 90 said:

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your statistics belie your comments.

i would wager that on 12/31 if we compare Sweden's response to the rest of the world, in terms of per capita casualties AND impact on GDP/economic damage and its impact on public health, Sweden will be no worse than par on COVID casualties, and exceptional on GDP.

the data, when compiled after this is over, will be objective and undeniable, unlike the public commentary since this outbreak started..

our emotion laden public health policy is doing grave damage to public trust, which was already fragile.

---

Literally almost every government in the world is doing what we have been doing and there are several that have been much more strict than we have been.

And do you really not think Sweden is about to go to a strict lock down like everybody else?

Not to mention, lock down or not, when the deaths mount up the economic damage is going to be done. People aren't going to go to concerts or movie theaters or restaurants or bars when they are fearful that they are putting their health in danger.

Have you seen Ecuador? They are running out of burial plots. (they have officially said only 220 have died of the virus so far)

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/ecuador-builds-emergency-cemeteries-amid-rising-deaths-coronavirus-cases-n1179091

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let's let the data tell the tale come 12/31.

we are here now because social media has made logic-driven public policy impossible - no politician, regardless of nation or political system, can withstand the howling mob that erupts over any death or anecdote like graves in Equador - even though EVERY public policy decision in health matters results in deaths (medicare, medicaid, opiate availability, vaccination requirements, the list goes on and on and every one has a statistical impact on death rates).

we are counting any coincident death with COVID as COVID. we are far below model projections regardless of geography. the poverty we are creating will kill people. those are just data-driven realities as of today. perhaps that will change for the worse - i hope not, but we will certainly see in time.

and no, i don't think Sweden will lock down. let's talk on 12/31.

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I agree that time will tell. I don't agree that Sweden will hang tough as the deaths mount.

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we are far below model projections regardless of geography.

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This is the part that is funny to me. The same people that have always been against the social distancing and economic shutdowns are the first to say the deaths from this virus are falling far short of the model projections - ignoring the fact that our economic shutdowns and social distancing (that they have always been against) are the very reason the virus hasn't been as deadly as first projected by those models.

Thank you Sweden for volunteering to be the guinea pig here. We're all watching