Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag said:

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So many anecdotes. I take care of more flu negative fever/cough patients than actual flu positive patients every single year. Just because you or your family had a viral infection in Dec or Jan does not give evidence to CV being here in November. The early flu spike in Washington this year was due to the flu hitting earlier this year than it typically hits. We in healthcare knew about this early flu season due to data out of Australia.

It is also important to note that the rapid flu test has a false negative rate of 20-30%, meaning lots of these flu negative cases you are talking about were actually flu positive.

Is it possible that we had CV in the US as early as November? Sure, but unlikely. CV is virulent enough that if we had a large spike in flu negative hypoxic respiratory failure patients in an area, the CDC would have sent out a memo on it as they typically do each year when abnormal spikes in infection related cases happens.

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My sons fell in the category of a negative test attributed to early Doc visit. We go the minute we see fever because we have a T1D in the house. We get tamiflu as early as possible and they'll give it to us with flu symptoms even if test is negative.

What led us to believe it could have been CV is that the Tamiflu did absolutely nothing. Son with most severe systems had flu shot and tamiflu on board within hours of fever onset. He went on to have 102-105 fever for five straight days (with fever reducers). On the follow up visit our Pediatrician threw her hands in the air and said it might be adenovirus.

Funny, we had the same situation in my house, including T1D member. But, in January she felt little when she tested positive other than fatigue for a day and I was wiped out sweating profusely for two days/massive sinus drainage. I had tested negative for flu and strep earlier in the week. Tamiflu she credited (we all took it and had gotten flu shots).

Yes, anecdotes, and not good enough for some super experts of course, but to me it's always a mystery what virus hits who/when/how. Wuhan virus seems like it's very erratic, and as I'm in healthcare and she teaches we are continuously exposed quite a bit. I hadn't gotten a serious cold/flu in over a decade...

Glad some put a ton of confidence into tests/CDC/WHO notices, but in my experience it's always a crap shoot. They guess essentially what strains to put in the flu vaccine yearly, and the whole science of diagnostics/treatments is closer to ancients reading goat entrails for signs than a real mathematical science. I do think it came over and started spreading in November, stateside, but it is very difficult to know, and may not ever be determined.

The first case was backdated to the 2nd or third week of November with a high degree of certainty so I dont see how it's possible.

The issue is that such dating really relies on trusting the communist chinese, and they even indicate it is speculative.

The question as to whether Italy/France etc. are actually in a second wave, and if actual cases were here in Nov-December I still think is a fair one to ask.

-We know it was in the US by January.
-We know the Chinese claim they responsibly identified case 0 in mid-November (and had nothing to do with the bio-weapons facility, supposedly).

My wife had the flu twice in January...first one was a negative test but she definitely had the flu...all symptoms. Two weeks later got it again with a positive test.

Tastybrisket10 said:

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My wife had the flu twice in January...first one was a negative test but she definitely had the flu...all symptoms. Two weeks later got it again with a positive test.

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I had all the flu symptoms in Jan. Tested negative. Doc still gave me tamiflu. Same thing happened to about a dozen co-workers. It was pretty weird.

i was in China in November

This group is not the only one asking this question. Pretty interesting but t the conclusion seems to be "We don't know what is going on

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-14/flu-watchdog-spots-more-with-fever-and-cough-but-it-s-not-flu?srnd=premium

Quote:

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A U.S. disease surveillance network that monitors doctors' offices and hospitals has picked up a rise in people with a fever and cough, but who don't test positive for influenza.

The reports come from states as well as the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's national flu surveillance network. Along with people who test positive for the flu, the networks track patients who show up with "influenza-like illness," defined as a fever of more than 100 degrees Fahrenheit plus a cough, sore throat, or both. Those are the same symptoms as coronavirus -- as well as other illnesses.

It's not clear if the increase represents a rise in coronavirus cases that are being missed because of a shortage of testing in the U.S. It's possible that worried people with some other respiratory illness are showing up for care in greater numbers.

But it's another piece of evidence as academics, public health experts and the government try to answer what none knows so far how many people in the U.S. have been infected by the new coronavirus, and how fast is it spreading?

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The spike in the United States that I saw was around March 1st.

Answer to my question earlier about testing for COVID-19 antibodies to confirm US cases prior to Jan/Feb: I heard from some docs on TV today that they expect that coronavirus immunity (not COVID-19-specific) lasts about a month. For COVID-19 they don't know yet how long immunity to it typically lasts. So even if a COVID-19 antibody test could be developed, negative results would probably not imply no previous infection (prior to mid-Feb).

My business partner was hit hard by something early February. Didn't go to Dr but he did claim it was one of the worst experiences he'd dealt with. Bounced back after about 3-4 days. Really healthy dude.

At around the same time, I had a mild sore throat for a couple hours each morning for a couple days but that was the extent of it...

Washington state had the first official death on Feb 29th, but they were able to posthumously confirm two deaths prior to that official death. That would mean they had the virus in late January/early February.

Windy City Ag said:

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This group is not the only one asking this question. Pretty interesting but t the conclusion seems to be "We don't know what is going on

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-14/flu-watchdog-spots-more-with-fever-and-cough-but-it-s-not-flu?srnd=premium

Quote:

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A U.S. disease surveillance network that monitors doctors' offices and hospitals has picked up a rise in people with a fever and cough, but who don't test positive for influenza.

The reports come from states as well as the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's national flu surveillance network. Along with people who test positive for the flu, the networks track patients who show up with "influenza-like illness," defined as a fever of more than 100 degrees Fahrenheit plus a cough, sore throat, or both. Those are the same symptoms as coronavirus -- as well as other illnesses.

It's not clear if the increase represents a rise in coronavirus cases that are being missed because of a shortage of testing in the U.S. It's possible that worried people with some other respiratory illness are showing up for care in greater numbers.

But it's another piece of evidence as academics, public health experts and the government try to answer what none knows so far how many people in the U.S. have been infected by the new coronavirus, and how fast is it spreading?

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The thing about even the best data from healthcare providers is that it is provided by folks who have come in to the doctor's office.

In this case, who here isn't likely to go in at this point for mild/moderate 'flu symptoms' who might not have done so a year ago?

Once a panic hits, even if it's nonsense, statistics around it will be dramatic. See: Toilet paper sales.

Flu like symptoms got 4 of us in my office earlier this year. Those who tested were negative. I am ready to believe that a significant percentage of people have already been exposed and the cure (shutdown) is worse than the disease economically.

I haven't had the flu in 15+ years and then got flu like symptoms late January into the first week of February. She came back from shot show in Vegas with it. Her co-worker did get tested but came up negative for the flu as well.

I'm not saying we got it, but I'm also not ruling it out.

I had the flu in Jan with a negative test. I have had the flu the last 3 years thanks to the kids. The difference in the standard flu and cv19 is the chest tightness and dry cough right? I had a cough this year, but it was not dry.

Had this in late December for 2 weeks. Chills were bad. Im in DFW area.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html?fbclid=IwAR0NIPs5J01JsyRjX-_vEbbXr6bz5OCWDQP4fFLKNNj_CCzLics_8xgPejg

Yes, there is a lot of red tape to testing and healthcare in the US.

It got worse under the Affordable Care Act.

It goes back to before CLIA '88 for labs, but the crux started there. It is amazing folks would even consider 'socialized medicine' as a solution to that type of problem.