Last year we hosted Minnesota and Wake Forest.

Year before Cal and Coastal Carolina.

And yet everybody acts as if they can predict regionals based on geography. Weird.

who are you talking to?

We've also hosted Seton Hall, Cal, Dayton, Wright State, Ohio State, and Illinois-Chicago.

And also had to travel to Coral Gables and Corvalis.

I think they TRY to match things up based on geography, but that doesn't always work out.

one piece of data...since the NCAA went to the new format in 1999...A&M has only played in 2 out-of-state regionals (as listed above).

2010 at Miami
2013 at Oregon State

the 2 times the committee made the Ags get on an airplane...the maroon-n-white traveled all the way to the ocean

If you throw out all the regionals we have hosted, since 1999 (the cut off W used), we have been sent to three Texas regionals:

04 - Rice
09 - TCU
14 - Houston

and two flying regionals:

10 - Coral Gables
13 - Oregon St

But both of those times we were sent for a flying regional there wasn't a regional that we could have been sent to within driving distance that wouldn't have forced a different team to make a plane trip.

10 - Coral Gables (only team within driving distance that we could be matched up against was TCU which we had been sent to their regional the previous year. Also, they sent Baylor there, so the only way they could have put us there would have been to fly Baylor somewhere else. Might as well send the team that wasn't there the previous year)

13 - Oregon St (no Texas teams hosted that year so we couldn't have been sent to one. LSU was the only one in driving distance and they got three other teams that were all in driving distance: U-La-La, Jackson St, and Sam Houston)


And I understand why W went back to 1999, but joining the SEC changed things to increase the likely hood of not traveling far for regionals. Texas, Baylor, and OU are all possibilities that weren't available then since we were in the same conference. We lost one potential regional (LSU) in driving distance and gained three.

mdanyc03 said:

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Last year we hosted Minnesota and Wake Forest.

Year before Cal and Coastal Carolina.

And yet everybody acts as if they can predict regionals based on geography. Weird.

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2016

Rice went to LSU
TCU hosted
Tech hosted
Dallas Baptist went to Tech
Sam Houston went to U-La-La

2015

Dallas Baptist hosted
texas went to DBU
Houston hosted
Houston Baptist went to UH
Rice went to UH
TCU hosted
Texas Southern when to A&M

They didn't fly ANY Texas teams in those years. We got a number of out of state teams flying in to play at our regional because so many Texas teams were hosting (plus LSU and OSU) that there wasn't enough teams within driving distance to send them to everybody.

so a repeat of the 2014 Houston regional at Rice...is very, very possible

W said:

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so a repeat of the 2014 Houston regional at Rice...is very, very possible

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This season? I thought Rice was struggling hard?

regional in Houston...just substitute the Cougars for the Owls.

a shame that seating capacity is only 3,500

+3 wins to OP projection.

W said:

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so a repeat of the 2014 Houston regional at Rice...is very, very possible

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Who'd be the 3 seed?

Nereus is back on the thread.

I think the question now is what will it take to host?

Goose06 said:

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I think the question now is what will it take to host?

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My guess is we have to win our remaining SEC series. We can maybe drop 1, with a strong showing in the SEC tournament.

The SEC is consider down this year and I think we'll only see 2-3 teams get a regional host. Kentucky and Arkansas probably have the inside track.

2 series into the recalibration and we're 1 win up on it. Not sure what to make of Tennessee. Their RPI says a sweep won't be easy. Still pulling for it, but even a 2-1 series leaves us in good shape.

SEC will have at least one national seed and probably 4-5 hosting sites. Down or not. From a numbers perspective, the southeast (ACC and SEC) just pull better than other conferences. I remember being pissed when we were in the Big 12 at the number of host sites those two conferences got.

VegasAg86 said:

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2 series into the recalibration and we're 1 win up on it. Not sure what to make of Tennessee. Their RPI says a sweep won't be easy. Still pulling for it, but even a 2-1 series leaves us in good shape.

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Never assume an SEC sweep. A series win is always a great thing regardless.

We are at the halfway point of the SEC season. So far our opponents record is 37-37 in conference play with Kentucky still a game to be decided. Our next five conference opponents record is 39-34 with two games to still play. Now obviously the 37-37 record includes games against us but it will be interesting to see how it plays out. The two best records we will face will both be at home which is good

Furthermore of our next five opponents here is their records

Game 1 of series
Tennessee 2-3
Missouri 1-4
Miss State 3-2
Ole Miss 3-2
Arkansas 5-0

Game 2
Tennessee 2-3
Missouri 4-1
Miss State 4-1
Ole Miss 2-3
Arkansas 2-3

Game 3
Tennessee 0-5
Missouri 2-2 (still today to play)
Miss State 3-1 (still to play today)
Ole Miss 2-3
Arkansas 4-1

Conversely we are
2-3 in Game 1
2-3 in Game 2
4-1 in Game 3

CapCityAg89 said:

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VegasAg86 said:

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2 series into the recalibration and we're 1 win up on it. Not sure what to make of Tennessee. Their RPI says a sweep won't be easy. Still pulling for it, but even a 2-1 series leaves us in good shape.

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Never assume an SEC sweep. A series win is always a great thing regardless.

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No doubt. They won their series at Florida despite their struggles this season. Definitely take a series win and be happy.

TAM85 said:

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Nereus is back on the thread.

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Why wouldn't I be?

Goose06 said:

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I think the question now is what will it take to host?

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So looked into this and here is my research of the last 3 years:

2016
National seeds:
#9 Lsu 42-18 19-11
#4 A&m 45-14 20-10
#1 Florida 47-13 19-10
#15 Mississippi state 41-16 21-9

Hosts:
#13 South Carolina 42-18 20-9
#16 Vanderbilt 43-17 18-12
#10 Ole miss 43-17 18-12

Next best sec teams:
#69 Kentucky 32-25 15-15 (did not make the field)
#64 Alabama 32-26 15-15 (did not make the field)

2015
National Seeds
#3 LSU 48-10 21-8
#4 Florida 44-14 19-11

Hosts
#5 A&M 45-11 18-10
#9 Vanderbilt 42-18 20-10

Next best SEC teams:
#22 Ole miss (2 seed) 30-26 15-14
#21 Arkansas (2 seed) 35-22 17-12
#18 Auburn (3 seed) 35-24 13-17
#52 South Carolina 32-25 13-17 (did not make field)
#57 Mizzou 30-28 15-15 (did not make field)
#46 Kentucky 30-25 14-15 (did not make field)

2014
National seeds
#1 Florida 40-21 21-9
#12 LSU 44-14-1 17-11-1

Hosts
#4 Vanderbilt 41-18 17-13
#14 South Carolina 42-16 18-12
#10 Ole miss 41-18 19-11


Next best sec teams
#25 Arkansas (2 seed) 38-23 16-14
#17 Kentucky (2 seed) 35-23 14-16
#20 Alabama (2 seed) 34-22 15-14
#24 Mississippi state (2 seed) 37-22 18-12
#23 Texas a&m (3 seed) 33-24 14-16

So with all of that, I'll say 17 conference wins, 40 wins overall and a top 16 RPI is probably what it will take.

We are 8-7 and 26-11. To get to 17-13 and 40 wins we need to go 9-6 in our remaining 5 conference series and then we need to win 5 more games between 4 non conference games and the SEC tournament. To get to the top 16 RPI we may need to go better than 17-13 in the SEC. remaining schedule below:

UTA
Tennessee
A&M CC
Mizzou
HBU
Miss St
Ole Miss
SHSU
Arky

the Ags probably need to sweep Tennessee to reach 17-13 in the league.

one problem with regard to hosting...the Big 12 and ACC teams in front of A&M will continue to improve their RPI & SoS as their leagues continue conference play too. It's getting tougher each passing day to make significant jumps in RPI.

this past weekend State won 2 of 3 at #22 South Carolina...and still only moved up 3 spots.

#33 A&M only has 6 road games left in the regular season (after UTA Tuesday night). 3 at #38 Ole Miss and 3 at #53 Missouri. It will be real interesting to see Boyd's needs report. Reaching the top 16 might require a 16-5 or 17-4 record the the rest of the way

Wouldn't it move less? As each team plays each other in the conference the losses negate each other

Schrute said:

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Even as a 4 seed? Not my predictions necessarily, just a "what if"...

Upcoming Games (current record 17-9):

LSU (win 1 of 3) (18-11)
DBU (win) (19-11)
Auburn (win 1 of 3) (20-13)
ACU (win) (21-13)
Alabama (win 2 of 3) (23-14)
UTA (win) (24-14)
Tennessee (win 2 of 3) (26-15)
A&M CC (win) (27-15)
Mizzou (win 1 of 3) (28-17)
HBU (win) (29-17)
Miss St (win 1 of 3) (30-19)
Ole Miss (win 1 of 3) (31-21)
SHSU (win) (32-21)
Arky (win 2 of 3) (34-22)

SEC Tournament (2 wins, 2 losses)

Final Record 36-24, SEC Record (inc tournament) 14-20.




IF, the frog had wings he would hump the butterfly. If you don't win, you can't get in!

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W said:

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the Ags probably need to sweep Tennessee to reach 17-13 in the league.

one problem with regard to hosting...the Big 12 and ACC teams in front of A&M will continue to improve their RPI & SoS as their leagues continue conference play too. It's getting tougher each passing day to make significant jumps in RPI.

this past weekend State won 2 of 3 at #22 South Carolina...and still only moved up 3 spots.

#33 A&M only has 6 road games left in the regular season (after UTA Tuesday night). 3 at #38 Ole Miss and 3 at #53 Missouri. It will be real interesting to see Boyd's needs report. Reaching the top 16 might require a 16-5 or 17-4 record the the rest of the way

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We need 7 wins of the 13 remaining conference games.

I think getting to 40 will be more difficult and that is saying something considering how difficult it will be to get the 7. Get the win today vs TN means splitting MO MSt OM and AR.

mdanyc03 said:

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Last year we hosted Minnesota and Wake Forest.

Year before Cal and Coastal Carolina.

And yet everybody acts as if they can predict regionals based on geography. Weird.

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We are going o be competing with Arkansas and Mississippi state for a regional host so winning 1 or both of those series will be important since we will likely have similar RPIs. Also need those 2 to not run away and hide several games ahead of us in the standings at the end of the year.

mdanyc03 said:

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Last year we hosted Minnesota and Wake Forest.

Year before Cal and Coastal Carolina.

And yet everybody acts as if they can predict regionals based on geography. Weird.

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Host - 2 Seed
UF - GT
FSU - S Miss
LSU - Rice
TTU - DBU
Mia - FAU
UVA - Bryant
Ole Miss - Tulane
UL - tOSU
USC - UNCW

NCST - St Mary
A&M - Minn
TCU - ASU
MSU - CSF
ULALA - UAz
VAN - UCSB
Clemson - OSU

9/16 were done by region. Of the 7 not done by region 5 were Cali or Az schools with no west coach host. 1 of the remaining 2 was Minnesota with no true northern host. The last would be OSU with TCU unable to host due to the same conference and no true midwest hosts.

It is pretty safe to say they heavily use geography.

Some years, RPI is kind to you, and some years, it is not. After taking two against a UT team in the low 50s, more than halfway through the conference schedule, we have barely budged. I'm no RPI mathematician, but that suggests to me that the only RPI component that's going to really help us going forward is our winning percentage, meaning we are going to have to stay extremely hot, and possibly need to win our division, in order to get the RPI up around 16, where it needs to be for us to host. I guess there could be a scenario where we win the West, but don't quite get the RPI in the top 16, yet still host, but that seems unlikely to me.

I think the key is to win road games against higher RPI teams. The last I saw, UT was close to us so being at home costs us any really gains.

at this point in the season, most teams have played 70% of their regular season schedule. Gets tougher everyday to make significant moves in the RPI. The way to do it is by winning road games vs. top 50 opponents.

Stanford has jumped 15 to 20 spots this week because the Cardinal won 2 road games at #50 Oregon. A&M will be at #56 Missouri next weekend. Perhaps a big opportunity to make a move with 2 or 3 wins in Columbia

Some fantastic discussion and data in this thread.

A couple of questions.

How religiously do we expect the NCAA to emphasize RPI this year? Is it the #1 factor?

When should we expect Boyd's needs report to come out?

After the first game, we dropped a spot and Tennessee went up 4. RPI is certainly slowing down.