mdanyc03 said:

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If the season ended today, we would be in. No doubt

Seems strange to project lots of future crappy play and then ask if we have any chance whatsoever.

I mean, if we play like crap as you project, no. But that is below the median scenario

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Why would we be in it if the season ended today? Our RPI is 55, our SOS is 55, and we are 3-8 versus the top 50.

LSU last year was in this exact position, 2-5 in conference. They hosted a regional last year.

Fwiw, the magic number for the acc and sec over the last couple of years has been 35 wins. To get there we would need to 17-12 the rest of the way which is very doable. That is why I think we should still be talking about higher aspirations at this point.

I'm agree that RPI has problems and it gets better later in the season although it isn't perfect even then, but what metric do you want to use to justify including our team in the tournament if the season ended today. Our overall record is only 45th in winning percentage (our SOS isn't that great so far and with so many home games that should be helping our overall record). We are 3-8 vs top 50 and none of our other wins are even close to becoming top 50 wins. Over half of our wins have come from sub 200 clubs and while some of them might get above 200 they are never going to be quality wins.

Warren Nolan predictor has us as 33-23 overall and 12-18 in conference. That is basically the same scenario the OP posted (with an extra Tuesday loss thrown in). Not sure why that is just projecting crappy play that is below the medium scenario.

I'm not saying we won't make a regional or even that we aren't that far away from winning a regional if we get things to click, but I'm not sure how you can say we don't need to play better than we have played to date to even make a regional.

I think you are missing the point.

None of the metrics mean anything yet. You get 1.4 wins for a road win and 0.7 wins for a home win. Hence there are teams like 10-14 Rutgers ahead of us simply because they have played more road games.

So I am not basing it on any metric. "If the season ended today" is an impossible hypothetical.

Would you prefer if I said "if we play the second half like the first half?" , recognizing that we have 12 road games in the second half versus 6 in the first half? Point is, any reasonable bracketology faux bracket right now would have us in.

Like I said, we really only need to go 17-12 down the stretch, maybe 18-11 to be super safe. I think most neutral outside observers would expect us to do that.

We are 3-8 vs top 50. So if we continue that percentage for the rest of the season that would put us at 6/17 or 7/17 against LSU, Tenn, Mizzou, Miss St, Ole Miss, Arky. The OP had us at 7/17 against those teams in the games remaining which hits that mark exactly. If you extend our current resume to the end of the season, it looks a lot like what the OP posted which you said would not get us in.

mdanyc03 said:

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Like I said, we really only need to go 17-12 down the stretch, maybe 18-11 to be super safe. I think most neutral outside observers would expect us to do that.

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You do realize the OP in the scenario you described as being "below the median scenario" had us going 17-13 before yesterday.

nereus said:

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mdanyc03 said:

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Like I said, we really only need to go 17-12 down the stretch, maybe 18-11 to be super safe. I think most neutral outside observers would expect us to do that.

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You do realize the OP in the scenario you described as being "below the median scenario" had us going 17-13 before yesterday.

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Right that was my point

nereus said:

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We are 3-8 vs top 50. So if we continue that percentage for the rest of the season that would put us at 6/17 or 7/17 against LSU, Tenn, Mizzou, Miss St, Ole Miss, Arky. The OP had us at 7/17 against those teams in the games remaining which hits that mark exactly. If you extend our current resume to the end of the season, it looks a lot like what the OP posted which you said would not get us in.

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I could pick a random metric and over extrapolate it too

mdanyc03 said:

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If the season ended today, we would be in. No doubt

Seems strange to project lots of future crappy play and then ask if we have any chance whatsoever.

I mean, if we play like crap as you project, no. But that is below the median scenario

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This was your original post. In it you accuse the OP of projecting lots of future crappy play and we won't make a regional with the projection and it is weird for him to project crappy play and then ask if we have any chance whatsoever because the answer is obviously no. Now, you are saying that basically the same level of crappy play that you described the OP of projecting that wouldn't get us into the post season is now going to get us into the post season?

Pick any metric. Any at all. I can understand not all metrics being perfect and you can certainly cherry pick favorable ones to prove a point that isn't there. But, you haven't name a single metric that would have us as a team in the tournament right now. If you can't even cherry pick a metric that is favorable to us, maybe that is because we currently don't have the resume of a tournament team.

nereus said:

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mdanyc03 said:

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If the season ended today, we would be in. No doubt

Seems strange to project lots of future crappy play and then ask if we have any chance whatsoever.

I mean, if we play like crap as you project, no. But that is below the median scenario

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This was your original post. In it you accuse the OP of projecting lots of future crappy play and we won't make a regional with the projection and it is weird for him to project crappy play and then ask if we have any chance whatsoever because the answer is obviously no. Now, you are saying that basically the same level of crappy play that you described the OP of projecting that wouldn't get us into the post season is now going to get us into the post season?

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I think you are being intentionally obtuse, but just in case, here you go.

The OP says "do we have any chance?" and then makes a projection for poor play from here on out as if assuming it is inevitable that we will play poorly and ignoring the possibility that we could play better and there is "a chance" that we could play much better.

I have been arguing that if we continue on our current quality we will still qualify and stated that the minimum number of wins needed in the regular season is 35. I think we will more than that.

nereus said:

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Pick any metric. Any at all. I can understand not all metrics being perfect and you can certainly cherry pick favorable ones to prove a point that isn't there. But, you haven't name a single metric that would have us as a team in the tournament right now. If you can't even cherry pick a metric that is favorable to us, maybe that is because we currently don't have the resume of a tournament team.

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Here is one- Winning percentage.

We currently have a winning percentage of 67%. Project that out and we finish 37-19 and has us comfortably in the field.

Yeah, that isn't valid but neither is extropolating top 50 RPI games or any other metric you have suggested.

Digression- yes our schedule for the second half will be harder than our schedule for the first half but the number of road games doubles (12 to 6). So in reality, holding performance constant our RPI will rise on the basis of road games alone more than our winning percentage will drop on the basis of a tougher portion of the schedule.

Digression 2- Not sure if you follow Lunardi for example but early in the season he doesn't really look at metrics which don't mean anything yet. He really just considers how good it appears that teams are.

I would argue that a neutral outside observer would say "yes I think A&M is good enough to go at least 11-12 in the SEC from here on out." And that would be good enough to probably get us in. That is my basis for saying we are in right now.

If you think that a neutral outside observer would expect that we would go 10-13 or worse in conference from here on out, then we would be out right now.

I can really argue that point because it is subjective right now. But talking about a 'resume' at this point is kinda pointless.

okay, time to recalibrate...A&M is 3-6 in the league after 3 series.

a realistic goal would be to win 2 of 3...the next 3 weekends vs. Auburn, Alabama, and Tennessee.

that would get the Ags back to .500 with a 9-9 mark.

after the road series win at LSU, I think 14-16 would be satisfactory for a regional bid.

which means 5-7 vs. Mizzou, State, Ole Miss, and Arkansas would be good enough

Also, Kentucky just might be pretty legit.

W said:

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okay, time to recalibrate...A&M is 3-6 in the league after 3 series.

a realistic goal would be to win 2 of 3...the next 3 weekends vs. Auburn, Alabama, and Tennessee.

that would get the Ags back to .500 with a 9-9 mark.

after the road series win at LSU, I think 14-16 would be satisfactory for a regional bid.

which means 5-7 vs. Mizzou, State, Ole Miss, and Arkansas would be good enough

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We are 41 on Warren Nolan's RPI right now. If we end up .500 in the SEC, we will at worst be a 2 seed. Still a lot of work to do, but at least you can sort of see a reasonable path.

Just take it one series at a time

RPI looking much better this morning! In Boyd's, we are dead even with LSU and Auburn. And I can't even fathom the unbelievable amount of confidence the guys gained this weekend.

A pretty decent DBU team Tuesday and then another huge series with Auburn. Let's do this!

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2013/schedule/Texas-AM


this earned us a 3 seed

Schrute said:

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Even as a 4 seed? Not my predictions necessarily, just a "what if"...

Upcoming Games (current record 17-9):

LSU (win 1 of 3) (18-11)
DBU (win) (19-11)
Auburn (win 1 of 3) (20-13)
ACU (win) (21-13)
Alabama (win 2 of 3) (23-14)
UTA (win) (24-14)
Tennessee (win 2 of 3) (26-15)
A&M CC (win) (27-15)
Mizzou (win 1 of 3) (28-17)
HBU (win) (29-17)
Miss St (win 1 of 3) (30-19)
Ole Miss (win 1 of 3) (31-21)
SHSU (win) (32-21)
Arky (win 2 of 3) (34-22)

SEC Tournament (2 wins, 2 losses)

Final Record 36-24, SEC Record (inc tournament) 14-20.

Final record 42-18, SEC Record {inc tournament} 18-16

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From D1Baseball: https://d1baseball.com/chats/d1baseballs-weekly-chat-april-3/

Quote:

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Comment From Howdy

If the Aggies can get to .500 in conference play and do more than a one-and-done appearance in the tournament, what are the chances they sneak into a regional?

Kendall Rogers:

I still think A&M finds its way into a regional. But it all depends on how the rotation and offense setup moving forward. The Auburn series this weekend is huge. Could be a tide-turner for those guys.

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I'd say there's a chance

Series wins against #8 lsu and #11 auburn Barring a complete collapse, they are in.

Last two weeks have been huge for regional chances. Still a ways to go with no room for another slump.

We won a series against a tough Auburn team, and that after losing a 1-run game with our ace on the mound. The UK sweep to start SEC play put this team immediately behind the eight ball, which (as weird as it may sound) may have been what this young team needed - and what the coaching staff needed, especially figuring out the pitching roles.

Just gotta keep grinding. A series win at Alabama is a must, a sweep would be much better.

W said:

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the pitching (the experienced part of the team) is what's turned around the last 2 weeks.

Auburn only scored 6 runs vs. A&M.

LSU only scored 10 runs.

whereas Vanderbilt scored 25 runs and Kentucky scored 23 runs

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Wow. That's quite a turnaround. Held a team that hadn't lost a series to only 6 runs.

Switching Martin and Kilkenny has been big for our rotation and relief pitching.

If we can get Larkins going, look out!

And Kolek getting it "figured out". He had a rough few weeks, but it was good to see him go more than 3 or 4 this weekend

And you could argue that if the umpire called the pitch a strike in the first inning of game two it would have been only three runs although you can't say the game would have followed the same path

Need a sweep against Alabama which won't be an easy task n the road in the SEC regardless of the opponent's record

Wicked Good Ag said:

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And you could argue that if the umpire called the pitch a strike in the first inning of game two it would have been only three runs although you can't say the game would have followed the same path

Need a sweep against Alabama which won't be an easy task n the road in the SEC regardless of the opponent's record

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Yeah, true. Although Kolek got the benefit of some inside and outside strike calls Sunday haha. Their pitcher did too- Kolek just used it to his advantage more. It's baseball. Either way, that's great.

Reminds me of last year's Vanderbilt series. We scored 5 runs and they scored 6. We won the first game 1-0 and lost the second 6-1. But won the third game 3-0 behind a no-hitter from Kyle Simonds. Only 11 runs total all weekend.