Any chance this get the Ags into a Regional?

15,961 Views | 112 Replies | Last: 6 yr ago by caleblyn
Schrute
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Even as a 4 seed? Not my predictions necessarily, just a "what if"...

Upcoming Games (current record 17-9):

LSU (win 1 of 3) (18-11)
DBU (win) (19-11)
Auburn (win 1 of 3) (20-13)
ACU (win) (21-13)
Alabama (win 2 of 3) (23-14)
UTA (win) (24-14)
Tennessee (win 2 of 3) (26-15)
A&M CC (win) (27-15)
Mizzou (win 1 of 3) (28-17)
HBU (win) (29-17)
Miss St (win 1 of 3) (30-19)
Ole Miss (win 1 of 3) (31-21)
SHSU (win) (32-21)
Arky (win 2 of 3) (34-22)

SEC Tournament (2 wins, 2 losses)

Final Record 36-24, SEC Record (inc tournament) 14-20.




Dale Gribble
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Won't be a 4 seed no matter what.
Basketball and Chain
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I just don't see a 12-18 SEC record even getting us consideration this year.

I think Auburn got in with 13-17 record but their RPI was in the low-20s
Wabs
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We might get "consideration", but unfortunately OP's scenario would most likely not get us in.
W
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at this point the Ags' conference record is the chief concern. A&M's RPI and SoS should be good enough for consideration if the team can pick off a road win or two in Baton Rogue, Oxford, and Columbia. Road wins at Alabama won't help much.

a repeat of 2015 Auburn or 2013 A&M would be the great hope if the Ags can only muster 13 or 14 conference wins.

the 2015 Auburn team was 19-20 vs. the top 100 which is not terrible. The Tigers had 2 series wins against regional teams. Also a top 10 SoS
histag10
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Dale Gribble said:

Won't be a 4 seed no matter what.


about a month ago, I believe it was discussed how it could potentially happen, but would require an absolute meltdown from smaller conferences.
histag10
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Also, I have hope of taking 2 from LSU with how they have been playing this year. If only we were in Louisiana, and if only this was a midweek series.....
jkag89
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Plenty of baseball left to right the ship so yes there is still a chance the Aggies get to a regional. With your scenario of a 12-18 league record we would need to win win it all at Hoover and hence get the SEC's automatic bid to make the dance.
W
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ultimately it feels like A&M has to sweep one of its conference series to get back on track in league play. And the best chance to do that will come in April vs. Auburn, Alabama, or Tennessee
Ragoo
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1/3 versus LSU and Auburn would mean we need to win every other conference series and sweep at least one.
Rocco S
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I would think the chances of us getting in with a sub .500 conference record for the third time in five years would be pretty low, especially with the 2 losses in Houston and the loss in Austin. So we aren't eliminated yet, but we better figure it out pretty quick.
jkag89
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Rocco S said:

I would think the chances of us getting in with a sub .500 conference record for the third time in five years would be pretty low, especially with the 2 losses in Houston and the loss in Austin. So we aren't eliminated yet, but we better figure it out pretty quick.
Why does this factor in? Not criticizing, just wondering about why you think these games are part of the equation.
Rocco S
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Because as of now our non conference resume is rather weak as far as beating decent teams. A losing conference record + a weak non conference resume = no post season
W
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it will be interesting to see if the Big 12 remains the #1 RPI conference...ahead of the SEC.

it's a legit possibility that the last few at-large spots could come down to the 9th & 10th teams from the SEC and the 6th & 7th teams from the Big 12.

A&M's 1-3 record vs. Big 12 could be a tiebreaker in a not so good way

Rocco S
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Quote:

A&M's 1-3 record vs. Big 12 could be a tiebreaker in a not so good way


Which is why I'm amazed at people downplaying our record vs teams in that conference, whether it be for a post season spot or a Regional host
jkag89
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Rocco S said:

Quote:

A&M's 1-3 record vs. Big 12 could be a tiebreaker in a not so good way


Which is why I'm amazed at people downplaying our record vs teams in that conference, whether it be for a post season spot or a Regional host
Where was anyone down playing our record against BDF teams? While not as deep as the SEC, it is probably the strongest it has been since A&M left that league. It is not as if the Ls were blowouts or at the hands of Kansas or K-State.
Rocco S
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Doesn't matter if they're blowouts one way or the other. W or L is all the committee looks at. And we don't play KU or KSU.
jkag89
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Rocco S said:

Doesn't matter if they're blowouts one way or the other. W or L is all the committee looks at. And we don't play KU or KSU.
By now I figured you would realize the committee uses what ever it wants to use as justification for its decisions. If they want to use a single head-to-head early season game they will but they could just as likely use anything else. For example you see the L to the sips but ignore the W verses tech who swept t.u. at the Disch. If the Ags play well here on out, a stretch where they played poorly early won't matter. The same can be said if they don't, if they scuff along the rest of the way, finish 8th or 9th in the SEC the committee could just as easily justify selecting the sips who might finish 4th or 5th in the BDF whether we beat them or not.
TempleAg97
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Anything can happen but I think the most likely scenario is we lose 2 of 3 at LSU, end up something very close to 36-20, 14-16 and go into the conference tournament needing a win or two and at the mercy of the committee. At this juncture, I'd take that!
Rocco S
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jkag89 said:

Rocco S said:

Doesn't matter if they're blowouts one way or the other. W or L is all the committee looks at. And we don't play KU or KSU.
By now I figured you would realize the committee uses what ever it wants to use as justification for its decisions. If they want to use a single head-to-head early season game they will but they could just as likely use anything else. For example you see the L to the sips but ignore the W verses tech who swept t.u. at the Disch. If the Ags play well here on out, a stretch where they played poorly early won't matter. The same can be said if they don't, if they scuff along the rest of the way, finish 8th or 9th in the SEC the committee could just as easily justify selecting the sips who might finish 4th or 5th in the BDF whether we beat them or not.


Im not ignoring the W vs tech. That's you putting words in my mouth again. We are 1-3 vs that conference. That's what they're going to look at, not the fact that tech swept tu, especially not when tu beat us.
Brick Tamland
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If we get into a regional, everyone will be *****ing about how we didn't make the supers. If we made the supers, people would be *****ing that we didn't make it to the CWS. If we made it to the CWS, everyone would be *****ing about how we won between 0 and 3 games.
jkag89
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Rocco S said:

jkag89 said:

Rocco S said:

Doesn't matter if they're blowouts one way or the other. W or L is all the committee looks at. And we don't play KU or KSU.
By now I figured you would realize the committee uses what ever it wants to use as justification for its decisions. If they want to use a single head-to-head early season game they will but they could just as likely use anything else. For example you see the L to the sips but ignore the W verses tech who swept t.u. at the Disch. If the Ags play well here on out, a stretch where they played poorly early won't matter. The same can be said if they don't, if they scuff along the rest of the way, finish 8th or 9th in the SEC the committee could just as easily justify selecting the sips who might finish 4th or 5th in the BDF whether we beat them or not.


Im not ignoring the W vs tech. That's you putting words in my mouth again. We are 1-3 vs that conference. That's what they're going to look at, not the fact that tech swept tu, especially not when tu beat us.
No, it is one factor in which they will weigh, not the factor in which you seem to be implying. One single game or series is not going to make or break whether you host or even make the dance or not. In 2007 the Aggies finished in the middle of the pack in conference play with a 13-13 record hosted a regional while Okie State which finished 3rd with a 18-9 record, even took the season series from the Ags at Olsen was sent to Fayetteville. Why? Obviously a number of different factors are weighed.
Rocco S
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I'm not implying that. All I said is our non conference record will be a factor on whether or not we make the post season, as will our conference record. If it comes down to us or a b12 team as to who gets in, our 1-4 record vs the conference could come into play
tjack16
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jkag89 said:

Rocco S said:

I would think the chances of us getting in with a sub .500 conference record for the third time in five years would be pretty low, especially with the 2 losses in Houston and the loss in Austin. So we aren't eliminated yet, but we better figure it out pretty quick.
Why does this factor in? Not criticizing, just wondering about why you think these games are part of the equation.
If we went 4-0 against those teams, those are big RPI wins... especially with Tech and TCU staying in the top 5 currently
jkag89
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tjholley17 said:

jkag89 said:

Rocco S said:

I would think the chances of us getting in with a sub .500 conference record for the third time in five years would be pretty low, especially with the 2 losses in Houston and the loss in Austin. So we aren't eliminated yet, but we better figure it out pretty quick.
Why does this factor in? Not criticizing, just wondering about why you think these games are part of the equation.
If we went 4-0 against those teams, those are big RPI wins... especially with Tech and TCU staying in the top 5 currently
I understand this, especially that TCU would have been a big RPI boost and possibly Baylor also. The basic idea behind my question was why the losses to Texas/BDF teams seem to matter so much in his thinking and not the non-conference loss at home to Pepperdine.
Rocco S
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Because we need marquee non conference wins to boost our RPI. Again you're trying to put words in my mouth.
jkag89
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Rocco S said:

Because we need marquee non conference wins to boost our RPI. Again you're trying to put words in my mouth.
No, I'm not. I may be misunderstanding your train of thought but it is not my intent to put words into your mouth, hence my question asking why you emphasized these games. By the way we are 1-3 against BDF teams not 1-4.
Rocco S
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Because those are our marquee non conference games. We need W's in our non conference games to boost our RPI because it appears we are headed for our 3rd losing conference record in 5 years under RC. And yes you're trying to put words in my mouth.
jkag89
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Rocco S said:

Because those are our marquee non conference games. We need W's in our non conference games to boost our RPI because it appears we are headed for our 3rd losing conference record in 5 years under RC.
Yes I read your further clarification, thanks.
Quote:

And yes you're trying to put words in my mouth.
Ah, you're a mind reader now. I am sorry that I phrased my post poorly so that you misconstrued them as trying to put words in to your mouth.
Rocco S
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I didn't say I was a mind reader. In this case it would be a short book. You know where you were trying to lead the conversation. Yes, I think we have a mental roadblock vs in state teams, but that's not where I was going with this, but it's where you're trying to take it. Non conference wins vs good teams will help us get into the post season. It just so happens we had 4 games against fairly good in state teams from the big 12, and we went 1-3 in those games. While the 1 game vs tech will help as you are so quick to point out, it's offset and then some by the 3 losses to TCU, Baylor, and tu.
jkag89
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For some reason we misunderstand and talk past each other. Mae culpa. I really meant what I posted a week or so ago that I was trying to understand your view point and would try to not to be antagonistic. It was truly not my intention to put words in your mouth or drive the discussion in a particular manner.
tjack16
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jkag89 said:

tjholley17 said:

jkag89 said:

Rocco S said:

I would think the chances of us getting in with a sub .500 conference record for the third time in five years would be pretty low, especially with the 2 losses in Houston and the loss in Austin. So we aren't eliminated yet, but we better figure it out pretty quick.
Why does this factor in? Not criticizing, just wondering about why you think these games are part of the equation.
If we went 4-0 against those teams, those are big RPI wins... especially with Tech and TCU staying in the top 5 currently
I understand this, especially that TCU would have been a big RPI boost and possibly Baylor also. The basic idea behind my question was why the losses to Texas/BDF teams seem to matter so much in his thinking and not the non-conference loss at home to Pepperdine.
I can see that... I guess the pepperdine loss isn't as bad because it was in a 3 game series. I think when it comes to teams on the bubble, they will be looking for big wins as a tie breaker. Going 3-1 over the Big 12 teams along with 2-1 over Pepperdine would go a long way
mdanyc03
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If the season ended today, we would be in. No doubt

Seems strange to project lots of future crappy play and then ask if we have any chance whatsoever.

I mean, if we play like crap as you project, no. But that is below the median scenario
mdanyc03
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tjholley17 said:

jkag89 said:

tjholley17 said:

jkag89 said:

Rocco S said:

I would think the chances of us getting in with a sub .500 conference record for the third time in five years would be pretty low, especially with the 2 losses in Houston and the loss in Austin. So we aren't eliminated yet, but we better figure it out pretty quick.
Why does this factor in? Not criticizing, just wondering about why you think these games are part of the equation.
If we went 4-0 against those teams, those are big RPI wins... especially with Tech and TCU staying in the top 5 currently
I understand this, especially that TCU would have been a big RPI boost and possibly Baylor also. The basic idea behind my question was why the losses to Texas/BDF teams seem to matter so much in his thinking and not the non-conference loss at home to Pepperdine.
I can see that... I guess the pepperdine loss isn't as bad because it was in a 3 game series. I think when it comes to teams on the bubble, they will be looking for big wins as a tie breaker. Going 3-1 over the Big 12 teams along with 2-1 over Pepperdine would go a long way


Guess what? Beating Texas state on the road is a bigger rpi boost than beating tcu would have been. Yes really. Look up the formula if you don't believe me.
BoerneGator
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Quote:

Guess what? Being Texas state on the road is a bigger rpi boost than beating tcu would have been. Yes really. Look up the formula if you don't believe me.
I look for Texas State to continue to boost our RPI with a winning record, if their performance against us is any indication. They hit the ball hard, early especially, but right at us later. Their pitching faded badly, which was their downfall vs us, but they were the best Tuesday night team we've faced to date imo.
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