Updated After Saturday Night Games
Thoughts on Saturday I normally stay away from actual game analysis but that felt like the first game that we simply just didn't play as smart as the other team. A small lead at the 8 minute timeout, in the bonus, the other bigs in foul trouble, the lane has been wide open all day and our guards haven't hit 3's…and we keep jacking up bad shot selection early in the shot clock. We shot 16% from 3 and Tennessee was making 48%....yet we decided to take 3 more shots from downtown. Gotta go with what is working…Wade Taylor 0/9 from 3. There needs to be some hard conversations this week and dialing back that ultimate green light talk.
In terms of the impact on seeding, I do not see any scenario where a 1 seed is realistic and a 2 seed is slipping away quickly. Home against Vanderbilt feels like a must win to stop this slide before the next 2 @ Florida and vs Auburn. Win that and stabilize as a strong 3 seed with still upside for a 2.
Rough look at what seed we would likely end up with based on the final 5 games, subject to the rest of the national landscape so +/- 1 seed line
4-0 = 2 seed
3-1 = 3 seed
2-2 = 4 seed
1-3 = 5 seed
0-4 = 7 seed
1 Seeds
1) Auburn (Lock) Auburn has locked up a 1 seed and is closing in on locking up the overall #1
2) Alabama (Lock) clear #2 and closing in on locking up a 1 seed
3) Duke (Lock) outstanding predictive numbers, but lag in the resume with a poor ACC.
4) Florida (Lock) Playing like a 1 seed right now and racking up impressive wins to make up for a lack of big wins in non conference.
2 Seeds
5) Tennessee (Lock) Stays in the hunt for a 1 seed. Will clearly stay ahead of A&M Better resume than A&M and clearly better predictive #s. If we want any chance to pass the Vols we need to beat them on Saturday.
6) Houston (Lock) Coogs keep pace with Florida and Tennessee to stay in the hunt for the last 1 seed. If they can win out @Tech and over Kansas they probably take it. Metrics already support it, resume is catching up fast.
7) Michigan State (Lock) Huge last week for MSU winning at Illinois and at Michigan. It doesn't hurt that A&M, Iowa State and Wisconsin all lost on Saturday.
8) Iowa State (Lock) Move up from 9 to 8 since they kept it close on the road and Wisconsin and A&M immediately ahead of them both lost.
3 Seeds
9) Texas A&M (Lock) Resume numbers will stay strong (4Q1A wins and 6Q1 and 8 Q2 wins will do that). But the predictive numbers are problematic and some teams around us (Michigan State) are racking up big wins and passing us up. Vanderbilt at home feels like a must win to stop a potential free fall.
10) Wisconsin (Lock) Took the home loss to Oregon to stop a 5 game winning streak. Badgers are still positioned well but that locks them off the 1 seed line.
11) Purdue (Lock) Purdue resume is fading fast, just lost their 3rd straight (all quad 1).
Still good predictive numbers but the door has slammed shut on a 1 seed and may be closing on a 2 seed.
12) Michigan (Lock) Several really high quality wins and they are in the same tier as the Big 10 elite (Wisconsin. Purdue, Michigan State) but their metrics are really dragging them down (in the 20s).
4 Seeds
13) St. John's (Lock) 16th in the initial reveal then they beat Creighton. Only 1 more quad 1 game left on the schedule so limited opportunity to move up much more.
14) Kentucky (Lock) 7 quad 1A wins ties Auburn for the most in the country. That number alone hides a lot of warts with this resume which otherwise would be a few spots lower.
15) Texas Tech (Lock) Didn't do much in the non-conference but they have done great work in the Big 12 knocking off Arizona and winning at Houston. Much better predictive numbers (avg 7.7) than resume (avg 19.3)
16) Maryland (Lock) Trending way up, opportunities vs. Michigan and Michigan State to move up to as high as a 3.
5 Seeds
17) Missouri (Lock) beating Alabama greatly improves this profile which has found its way into the top 4 seed line discussion.
18) Arizona (Lock) controversial loss to BYU drops them to a 5 for now
19) Kansas (Lock) Kansas righted the ship vs. Oklahoma State. Must be nice to play in a conference where you get a Q3 game mixed in every now and then.
20) Clemson lack of high end wins and a Q3 loss cap this profile as a 5 seed even if they win out. 4 games left and all 4 would be a bad loss. Holding off on locking them in
6 Seeds
21) Oregon (Lock) huge win at Wisconsin on Saturday. Predictive metrics still stink but they have racked up some great wins this year.
22) Louisville similar spot as Clemson, the ACC schedule is just not going to give the Cards much room to move up. Will be a lock with 1 more win but all 4 remaining games would qualify as bad losses.
23) St. Mary's (Lock) complete the sweep of Gonzaga to move up to a 6 seed. A 5 is still the ceiling based on the SOS.
24) Mississippi State (Lock) -loss to Oklahoma halts the momentum up the seed line.
7 Seeds
25) Marquette (Lock) No one is fading faster than Marquette (ok maybe Kansas).
26) Ole Miss (Lock) Back to back losses this week but what's worse is almost everyone else in this seed range had a great week. Rebs slide all the way to a 7 seed for now.
27) Memphis 3 quad 3 losses and their predictive metrics are….not good.
28) UCLA (Lock) Very damaging home loss to Minnesota slips UCLA back at least a seed line
8 Seeds
29) Creighton
30) Utah State
31) Gonzaga
32) Illinois (Lock) got absolutely rocked on their home court and were never competitive. Sure they were playing Duke, but this is now 3 straight losses and resume numbers in the 30s are starting to be a bit worrisome. I am still confident they are a lock but if they lose out they may sweat a bit on selection Sunday.
9 Seeds
33) BYU massive week first blowing out Kansas, and now getting the controversial win at Arizona. BYU went from well off the bubble, to winning 3 straight and are fairly comfortably in at this point.
34) UConn
35) New Mexico
36) Baylor
10 Seeds
37) Vanderbilt Got their 3rd elite conference win on Saturday beating Ole Miss. Goes nice with wins against Tennessee and Kentucky, but they did nothing out of conference and the losses are piling up. Predictives are worrisome (54 in BPI would be very dangerous to take into selection Sunday).
38) Nebraska
39) San Diego State
40) West Virginia
11 Seeds
41) Ohio State Took one of the worst losses for any bubble contender of the season by getting absolutely blown out on their home court against Northwestern on Wednesday. Ohio State went from comfortably in a week ago to being in some real danger headed to the home stretch.
42) Drake (Missouri Valley Placeholder The loss to Bradley may mean they need to win out in the regular season to stay in an at large position
Last 4 In
43) VCU No quad 1 wins. They do still play Dayton one more time, if they can win out they will basically be a lock. Lose one and they might not want to rely on an at large bid. The predictive numbers (mid 30s) are already good enough to get in if they can boost the SOR (53) and WAB (56).
44) Arkansas 4 quad 1A wins against Michigan, Kentucky, Texas and Mizzou, the first 3 being away from home, for now have the pigs in. Need to steal at least 2 more wins somewhere, maybe 3.
45) Oklahoma Sooners were 13-0 in the non conference but had been in complete free fall mode before getting the massive win over Mississippi State. That gets them to 4-10 in the SEC, hardly a mark that screams NCAAT. Given their non conference and the strength of the SEC, believe it or not 6-12 is probably enough to sneak in. Getting 2 more wins though is easier said than done given the schedule, they will probably be underdogs in all 4.
46) Texas Followed up the Kentucky win by getting blown out at South Carolina to hand the Gamecocks their first conference win. With how weak the bubble is, I still think they would be in If things ended right now, but this loss stings and they have to win at least 2 of the last 4, maybe 3 to stay in. Given their lack of results in non-conference, the magic number for Texas to get a bid may be 8 SEC wins (5 so far).
Projecting 22 one bid leagues regardless of conference tournaments, for spots 47-68 (will be adjusted for stolen bids and some at large bids above this line will go away)
One bid leagues
47) Atlantic 10 -note, several bubble teams that are out now could work their way in to make this a 2-bid league
48) Atlantic Sun
49) America East
50) Big Sky
51) Big South
52) Big West Note, 2 bubble teams that are OUT right now but could possibly win out and get at large consideration
53) Conference USA
54) Coastal
55) Horizon
56) Ivy
57) MAAC
58) MAC
59) MEAC
60) NEC
61) OVC
62) Patriot League
63) SWAC
64) Southern
65) Southland
66) Summit
67) Sun Belt
68) WAC
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69) Georgia similar boat as Arkansas. The wins over Kentucky and St. John's are nice but the losses are piling up and at 4-10 in the SEC you have to squint a bit to see where they can pick up at least 2 more wins needed to have a case (probably need 3 more).
70) Wake Forest Wake takes yet another bad loss. In a normal year it would feel like they would need to win out including @Duke but the bubble is so weak who knows? The predictives are horrendous (70 in KenPom, 71 in Torvik).
71) SMU It is very rare a "power" conference team will have NCAAT worth numbers (top 45 across the board in resume and predictive, yet has not yet scored a single quad 1 win. But then again is the ACC still a power conference?
72) UC San Diego Only played 4 games all year above quad 3, splitting with UC Irvine, winning at Utah State and losing at San Diego State. They also picked up 2 quad 3 losses along the way. They do have 1 quad 2 game left at CSUN. They absolutely must win out to have any chance at an at large but if they do, their resume numbers which are currently in the mid-50s, may get good enough to give them a chance.
73) North Carolina 1 pretty good win (neutral court vs. UCLA) but ultimately just too many losses including one on their home court to Stanford (Quad 3). Only 1 Quad 1 game left, to end the season at home vs. Duke. The rest of the schedule is 3 quad 3s, a quad 4 and a quad 2. Vs. that weak schedule they probably need to win out to have a realistic chance.
74) Indiana The Hoosiers got their biggest win of the year at Michigan State this week. No losses outside of Quad 1 but there are still some real stinkers in there (losing by 25 to Iowa, 28 to Louisville, 17 to Nebraska, 9 to Northwestern). The profile has some good to it (38th in KPI, and some bac 60th in Torvik). Hard to see this one NOT being one of the last 4 in/first 4 out.
75) Xavier Won at Marquette which is by far the crown jewel of the profile. Without that there isn't much here but the predictive numbers in the high 40s are good enough to suggest an at large is possible with a good close to the season. Pretty manageable stretch run so they may need to win out including beating Creighton and going on to road at Butler.
76) Cincinnati Losing to West Virginia means they may need to win out (including beating Houston to get in.
77) Utah if they win out that would mean picking up several quad 1 wins, because of that, at large is still a remote possibility. Stayed alive with a win vs. Kansas on Saturday, and then beating Kansas State on Monday.
78) Boise State Pretty good predictive metrics (37th in Torvik) but in the 60s in the resume department thanks to a quad 4 loss to Boston College. They did beat St. Mary's on a neutral court and beat Clemson in the non-conference, but they haven't been able to score any key wins in conference yet. After losing to San Diego State, they only have 1 more Q1 chance left on the schedule, so it feels like even winning out probably won't be enough.
79) San Francisco The 3rd team out of the WCC. Lost to Gonzaga on Thursday night. They did get a split against St. Mary's. Now must win out including beating Gonzaga in the finale to get back into the conversation but my guess is that probably will not be enough.
80) George Mason GM is cooked. I flirted with eliminating them outright following their loss to VCU, given they are clearly outside the field right now and will have no more opportunities to move up playing Q3 and Q4. If they win out and only lose an A-10 championship game to VCU I suppose they will at least be in the conversation depending on how the rest of the bubble does but I don't see a viable path here.
81) TCU On the brink of elimination, need to win out to have a chance.
82) Kansas State K State was left for dead in late January with a 7-11 record with only 1 of those wins better than quad 3. They got off the mat winning 6 straight but ran into a brick wall on Saturday getting blown out by BYU. In the mid 50s across both resume and predictive numbers (2 quad 3 losses will do that) so they still have a way to go. Need to go 5-1 down the stretch to have a chance.
83) Pitt Probably eliminated from at large contention, if they win out they may make the first 4 out conversation.
84) USC 3 quad 1 wins at Illinois, at Nebraska and against Michigan State are more than most of their peers in this portion of the watch can boast. That said all their metrics are lagging for both resume and predictive thanks to a quad 3 loss to Cal on their home court and a few squeakers vs. quad 4 (Idaho State & UT Arlington). 5 quad 1 games in their last 6 so plenty of opportunities to correct that.
85) UCF Just dropped their 7th in a row, this one to Colorado who previously was 0-13 in the Big 12. It is tempting to just eliminate them after that loss but, they did beat Texas A&M and Texas Tech and if they win out it might just be enough to get back into it. Predictives lagging into the high 60s.
86) Dayton 2 big wins in the non-conference vs. UConn and Marquette. The Quad 3 loss to UMass hurts and blown out too many times vs. quad 2 opponents (by 20 to GE, by 22 to St. Bonaventure). They really need to win out including winning at VCU to have a realistic chance (metrics in the 70s).
87) UC Irvine Took a really damaging loss to Cal State Northridge on Thursday night. That's now 3 Q3 losses, and only 1 Q1 win (at UC San Diego). Metrics near 100 for the quality/predictive metrics, almost impossible to imagine them getting in without the auto bid but I will hold off on eliminating them quite yet.
88) Santa Clara They did win at Gonzaga so worth keeping an eye on them. Wide range in their metrics. The Resume ranks are not clustered and range from 57 to 90. The predictives range from 51 to 71. They do have 3 quad 3 losses and so they need to win out including beating Gonzaga again to have a shot.
89) Iowa got their 1st quad 1-win oof the year by beating Rutgers. Only 1 bad loss to Minnesota. Need to win out to get in with a tough stretch to end the year.
90) Oregon State They did beat Gonzaga but haven't done much beyond that. Need to win out and then hope the bubble continues to collapse.
91) Colorado State winning out is probably not enough
92) LSU Believe it or not winning out would get LSU to 7-11 in the SEC and that would be good enough to get in. That said they are a heavy underdog in each of the last 4 so it would take a couple miracles to get there.
93) Minnesota The loss to Penn State probably ends the Gophers hopes of an at large, but given they can still get to .500 in the Big 10 I will keep them technically alive until they drop 1 more.
Eliminated in the last week:
Northwestern (Sunday)
Rutgers (Sunday)
Arizona State (Tuesday)
Villanova (Tuesday)
Washington (Wednesday)
