Who are the bid stealers to root for today??

Latest Bracket Matrix shows us as the top 4 seed (#13 overall) with Iowa State just above us as the final 3 seed (#12 overall).

I think that the NCAAT "bracket early reveal" where we were #6 overall hinted that OOC SOS and success will be emphasized again this year - which has Ags significantly better than Iowa State.

The Cyclones beat only Marquette and Dayton as their best OOC wins - which we essentially matched by beating Creighton (neutral site) and Ohio State - plus adding our other big "neutral site" victories over Purdue in Indianapolis and Texas Tech in Fort Worth (albeit Iowa State also beat Texas Tech in conference play).

But we also delivered a recent impressive beatdown of Auburn - whereas Iowa State beat no NCAA 1 or 2 seeds.

And the Cyclones two worst losses - Kansas State on their home court with a NET of 75 and at Olahoma State with a NET of 96 appear to be much worse than our two worst losses at UCF with a NET of 71 and at home against Vanderbilt with a NET of 48.

Bottom line - with pattern of giving props to teams that schedule and succeed with a tough OOC schedule - i think we edge out Iowa State.

Cyclones right not Hawkeyes

PatriotAg02 said:

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Who are the bid stealers to root for today??

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Cornell if you think we'll face #12 Yale and would rather play Cornell.

TraditionsPD said:

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Cyclones right not Hawkeyes

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Thank you. Correcting now.

bobinator said:

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I mean it matters right? It just may not matter a lot. The 14s are worse than the 13s, the 6s are worse than the 5s. The 2s are worse than the 1s….

For mr "nothing matters but the stats" it seems odd for you to say it doesn't matter.

Sure, the matchups are more important and for any given team in any given year maybe there's not a big difference but that's true for everyone every year right?

Big picture, it matters.

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Even if you assume the rankings are anywhere close to accurate, to try and handicap the true difference between a committee-applied 13 seed and a 14 seed -- which often don't reflect what any vegas power ranking or the like would say -- ultimately boils down to having a % impact that's likely less than a half-dozen other things.

% value of 1 extra game of wear-and-tear on our team
% value of a Thursday start vs a Friday start
% value of a AM start vs a PM start
% value of playing in altitude (Denver) vs sea level

etc, etc...

But more-so than all of that, it's simply the way our team has performed all year long. This isn't a team that has handled lesser opponents with ease but just struggled against the top flight teams. Texas beat us 2 out of 3. South Carolina took us to the wire. Vandy beat us at Reed.

We took down #1 Auburn by double-digits and kept them at arm's length for the majority of the 2nd half. Essentially road games vs Texas Tech and Purdue we won. #5 Alabama we miss 20 free throws and it was a 5pt game with a minute left.

3 or 4 won't matter to us outside of how soon we play a 1 seed.

Fanatic15...Drs2B! said:

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Latest Bracket Matrix shows us as the top 4 seed (#13 overall) with Iowa State just above us as the final 3 seed (#12 overall).

I think that the NCAAT "bracket early reveal" where we were #6 overall hinted that OOC SOS and success will be emphasized again this year - which has Ags significantly better than Iowa State.

The Cyclones beat only Marquette and Dayton as their best OOC wins - which we essentially matched by beating Creighton (neutral site) and Ohio State - plus adding our other big "neutral site" victories over Purdue in Indianapolis and Texas Tech in Fort Worth (albeit Iowa State also beat Texas Tech in conference play).

But we also delivered a recent impressive beatdown of Auburn - whereas Iowa State beat no NCAA 1 or 2 seeds.

And the Cyclones two worst losses - Kansas State on their home court with a NET of 75 and at Olahoma State with a NET of 96 appear to be much worse than our two worst losses at UCF with a NET of 71 and at home against Vanderbilt with a NET of 48.

Bottom line - with pattern of giving props to teams that schedule and succeed with a tough OOC schedule - i think we edge out Iowa State.

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You do have a point. Our actual resume is way better.

This is why I still think we'll be a 3 seed. They showed how much they valued our OOC schedule and performance.

I get what you're saying and it's selection Sunday for one of the highest seeds we've ever gotten so I don't feel like doing one of our deep dive debates on this, just seems like an odd take for you. Whatever maximizes our chances of playing worse teams seems like it matters. Even if the % change is small.

HossAg said:

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This is why I still think we'll be a 3 seed. They showed how much they valued our OOC schedule and performance.

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And that is what they used to keep us out in '22. Weak OOC

Colleyville seems to think there's a substantial difference for us playing possible 14 seeds versus 13 seeds matchup wise.

PatriotAg02 said:

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Who are the bid stealers to root for today??

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The biggest bid stealer to watch is UAB over Memphis. If that happens there is 1 less spot.

The other is George Mason over VCU. A10 may still ultimately be a 1 bid league either way, but it opens up the door for 1 more spot to disappear.

Also i would root for Cornell over Yale today as Yale IMO is a matchup nightmare for us and eliminates the chance of us having to play them.

Teams I would not want to face on the 1 and 2 lines until as late as possible:
1. Florida
2. Tenn
3. Bama
4. Duke
5. Houston
6. Auburn
7. St. John's
8. Mich st

Hence my reasoning for not caring about 3 and 4 seeds i. Sweet 16 round. Now if you were to tell me we were a 3 with Mich st or ST John as our 2, I am ecstatic. My next favorite scenario is a 4 seed with Auburn or Houston.
Defensively we have been gettting hurt by the guard that can drive and collapse us. The best teams at that are my top 3 avoid. Mich st can't make those shots usually.

bearcat said:

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Teams I would not want to face on the 1 and 2 lines until as late as possible:
1. Florida
2. Tenn
3. Bama
4. Duke
5. Houston
6. Auburn
7. St. John's
8. Mich st

Hence my reasoning for not caring about 3 and 4 seeds i. Sweet 16 round. Now if you were to tell me we were a 3 with Mich st or ST John as our 2, I am ecstatic. My next favorite scenario is a 4 seed with Auburn or Houston.
Defensively we have been gettting hurt by the guard that can drive and collapse us. The best teams at that are my top 3 avoid. Mich st can't make those shots usually.

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We match up very well with Auburn. Houston not so much.

bearcat said:

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Teams I would not want to face on the 1 and 2 lines until as late as possible:
1. Florida
2. Tenn
3. Bama
4. Duke
5. Houston
6. Auburn
7. St. John's
8. Mich st

Hence my reasoning for not caring about 3 and 4 seeds i. Sweet 16 round. Now if you were to tell me we were a 3 with Mich st or ST John as our 2, I am ecstatic. My next favorite scenario is a 4 seed with Auburn or Houston.
Defensively we have been gettting hurt by the guard that can drive and collapse us. The best teams at that are my top 3 avoid. Mich st can't make those shots usually.

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I agree with 6, 7, 8. I'd probably have Tennessee in that list at 5. It took a statistical anomaly of a game for them to beat us. Would rather see Tenn than Bama, Duke, or Houston.

Final* seed list with pod sites:
1 Auburn LEX
2 Duke RAL
3 Houston WICH
4 Florida RAL
5 Tennessee LEX
6 Alabama CLE
7 Michigan State CLE
8 St. John's PROV
9 Texas Tech WICH
10 Kentucky MIL
11 Wisconsin MIL
12 Iowa State DEN
13 Texas A&M DEN
14 Maryland PROV
15 Arizona SEA
16…

— JBR Bracketology (@JBRBracketology) March 16, 2025

rausr said:

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A special note of thanks to all of you who have put so
much time and effort into to gathering and tabulating and interpreting for the rest of us - it has given us so much enjoyment.

Many of us have been coming back here multiple times a day (and of late multiple times per hour).

Let's hope that the committee (for once) agrees and aligns with your analysis.

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Ditto

PJYoung said:

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Final* seed list with pod sites:
1 Auburn LEX
2 Duke RAL
3 Houston WICH
4 Florida RAL
5 Tennessee LEX
6 Alabama CLE
7 Michigan State CLE
8 St. John's PROV
9 Texas Tech WICH
10 Kentucky MIL
11 Wisconsin MIL
12 Iowa State DEN
13 Texas A&M DEN
14 Maryland PROV
15 Arizona SEA
16…

— JBR Bracketology (@JBRBracketology) March 16, 2025

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Hoping that is close to correct except that the comparison of OOC SOS flips Iowa State and Texas A&M in the Committee's final brackets.

Fanatic15...Drs2B! said:

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PJYoung said:

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Final* seed list with pod sites:
1 Auburn LEX
2 Duke RAL
3 Houston WICH
4 Florida RAL
5 Tennessee LEX
6 Alabama CLE
7 Michigan State CLE
8 St. John's PROV
9 Texas Tech WICH
10 Kentucky MIL
11 Wisconsin MIL
12 Iowa State DEN
13 Texas A&M DEN
14 Maryland PROV
15 Arizona SEA
16…

— JBR Bracketology (@JBRBracketology) March 16, 2025

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Hoping that is close to correct except that the comparison of OOC SOS flips Iowa State and Texas A&M in the Committee's final brackets.

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I think that has it nailed unless Iowa State and the Ags get flipped. I believe we will be a 3 or 4 seed in Denver.

Alright, here is my final bracket assuming Memphis takes care of business. I think we are the first 4 seed. Very real possibility that we could be a 3 seed. Bracket would obviously be different as it is not just switch with one team type model. Even though I think a 4 seed would be harder to get to the sweet 16, we wouldn't see any SEC teams which is probably what we need at this point. Probably wouldn't see an SEC team until Elite 8.

For as many of us who don't want to play BYU in a potential second round matchup, funny to see some of their fans suggest that we're a bad matchup for them.

If Memphis loses, I will try to update but doubtful if I get to it.

I figured out why I hate watching our basketball team's play style so much. It's because we play like a big ten team. This BIG final is brutal to watch

Except….we have more wins against big 10 teams than some big 10 teams alone.

OP has been updated for a final time to reflect Memphis holding on and no final bid stealers on Sunday.

Holding Wisconsin as a 3 and Michigan as a 5 despite the result in the Big 10 tournament, I have been burned too many times trying to make a logical seeding decision based on the Big 10 championship.

Will be switching over to my Selection Sunday Bracket Projection thread for the discussion now that this is completed.

Awesome thread.

From Bracket Matrix (collection of bracketologists)

34 has A&M as 3 seed
76 has A&M as 4 seed
1 has A&M as 5 seed

— MarcAg (@MarcAg_) March 16, 2025

Proposition Joe said:

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Though I will say that with the caveat of it not mattering until the Elite 8 IMO.

I honestly think we're a coin-flip against any 2-12 seed.

13 seeds and above I think we'll handle. 1 seeds on a neutral court I think we'd need to play our best.

Everyone else, it's going to be a rock fight in which opponent 3P% on clean looks and our FT% will decide the close outcomes.

Said it two weeks ago and I'll say it again -- the only team I want no part of is Florida. That's your title favorite right now IMO.

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Same here

Florida has the look of UConn the last 2 years; just too good to lose

Which means with our luck we'll be in Florida's region, and we'll be the 4

We thank you for your service

Faustus said:

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94chem said:

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AggieNattie said:

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Isn't it baffling to anyone else that UNC can still probably get in the field with only ONE Quad 1 win? If I'm a Texas fan and they got in over me, I'd be livid.

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If the committee is actually watching games, they would know that both teams should be in.

Texas has been erratic, but has really nice wins. UNC is playing tourney level basketball, beating up bubble teams and lower. UNC is hurt by all of their Q1 opportunities being against top 10 teams...
Duke 3x
Clemson
Louisville
Kansas (when ranked #1)
Florida
Auburn
Alabama
Michigan State

They've not had any Vanderbilt/UGA/OU type games.

The committee should go pick on the Mountain West and not hold the ACC to 3 bids.

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All three of Vandy, OU, and UGA are Quad 1 away games and Quad 2 home games. That's exactly how these (much weaker) ACC teams are scored in the Net rankings: SMU, Pitt, and Wake Forest. It's just the ACC's version are rated much lower but give the same benefit to UNC.

Texas also had 5 more Quad 1 games than UNC, which the Tar Heels made up by having 5 more Quad 3-4 games than Texas.

It could happen that the Tar Heels get in in front of Texas since some of the advanced metrics favor them, but I think the 1-12 thing while making hay in Quads 3-4 will favor the Horns.

I wouldn't to surprised to see them both out though (as well as Indiana). I think Texas is in front of both though. I think there's a decent chance Texas is in front of Xavier too.

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Texas in front of all 3 (and SD St. from post earlier).

I didn't see Texas sliding in front of West Virginia though.

All UNC needed to get in was that one Quad 1 win against Wake Forest in the conference tourney. Nice.

LouisvilleAg said:

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Alright, here is my final bracket assuming Memphis takes care of business. I think we are the first 4 seed. Very real possibility that we could be a 3 seed. Bracket would obviously be different as it is not just switch with one team type model. Even though I think a 4 seed would be harder to get to the sweet 16, we wouldn't see any SEC teams which is probably what we need at this point. Probably wouldn't see an SEC team until Elite 8.

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359 out of 408 total points

67 correctly picked teams
47 correctly seeded teams
17 teams off by one seed
3 teams off by more than one seed - Memphis, Missouri, Louisville