Updated Sunday 4:30 PM Final Update
1 Seeds
1) Auburn (Lock) 2 weeks ago this was probably the most dominant profile ever. Lost 3 of the last 4 and the case for the #1 overall seed is a lot more interesting. I still give the nod to Auburn based on an insane 16 quad 1 wins vs.9 for Duke. Duke did beat them head to head and has significantly better quality metrics so it would not shock me to see Duke #1 overall (Regular Season Over)
2) Duke (Lock) Number 1 in all the quality metrics but lack the elite wins to surpass Auburn for #1 overall. Locked into the 1 seed line and perhaps an outside shot at #1 overall. (Regular Season Over)
3) Houston (Lock) Locked in as a 1 seed. (Regular Season Over)
4) Florida (Lock) Strong finish to the year #3 in all resume counts and #4 in all quality metrics. Beating Alabama twice down the stretch should be good enough to hold on to the last #1 seed (and arguably #3 overall) (Regular Season Over)
2 Seeds
5) Alabama (Lock) Bama makes it interesting for the last 1 seed spot by winning at Auburn to get the best win of anyone all season. It feels strange that it wouldn't move them up a single spot and it feels downright absurd that a team with 11 Quad 1A wins would not be a 1 seed. Looking at the 4 one seeds I am not sure who you take it away from and they had their chance vs. Florida twice down the stretch to stay ahead of them and couldn't get it done. (Regular Season Over)
6) Tennessee (Lock) Vols are truly deserving of a 1 seed also, having beaten both Florida and Alabama in the regular season and beating Auburn in the tournament, but the profile from a numbers standpoint is clearly a step behind. Locked in as a 2 seed. (Regular Season Over)
7) Michigan State (Lock) MSU is locked into the 2 seed line, anything else would be truly shocking. (Regular Season Over)
8) St. John's (Lock) I have had St. John's as the last 2 seed for going on close to 3 weeks now and they just keep winning to justify it. Won 9 in a row including beating Creighton twice, UConn and Marquette twice both away from home. They don't have the quantity of elite wins but 18-4 vs. Quad 1 +2 is better than anyone else below them. (Regular Season Over)
3 Seeds
9) Texas Tech (Lock) Great quality metrics, better than St. John's . They can be elite when healthy. 9-4 vs. Quad 1 is eye opening. (Regular Season Over)
10) Kentucky (Lock) Elite resume numbers 8 quad 1A wins, 11 quad 1. #9 in WAB should keep them as a 3 seed with an outside chance at a 2. (Regular Season Over)
11) Wisconsin (Lock) Not much separates the 2nd tier Big 10 teams but the Badgers getting the win over Michigan State vaults them up to the 3 seed line (assuming the committee is still paying attention. (Regular Season Over)
12) Texas A&M (Lock) 5 quad 1A wins, top 10 in the resume ranks, Wisconsin's Big 10 tournament performance squeaks them past A&M. I am still very confident that A&M is ahead of Iowa State.
Final confidence chances of each seed line based on the very scientific gut read:
2 seed 0.5%
3 seed 78%
4 seed 20%
5 seed 1.5%
4 Seeds
13) Iowa State (Lock) Only 2 quad 1A wins, and down to #25 in KPI. They also have some injury concerns the committee may be factoring in. (Regular Season Over)
14) Maryland (Lock) Great quality numbers, big win at Michigan to close the year and then pounded Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament to cement their spot on the 4 line. (Regular Season Over)
15) Arizona (Lock) Faded a bit down the stretch with 5 losses in the last 9 games but a strong performance in the Big 12 tournament. (Regular Season Over)
16) Oregon (Lock) Predictive metrics still stink but they have racked up some great wins this year 8 quad 1. #12 in WAB but quality #s in the mid 30s. 13th best pure resume numbers. (Regular Season Over)
5 Seeds
17) Clemson (Lock) lack of high-end wins (4 quad 1) and a Q3 loss cap the ceiling for this profile. That quad 3 loss to Georgia Tech in 3OT is their only loss since January 7th before falling in the ACCT. That may speak more to how weak the ACC is than anything though. Losing to Louisville puts their spot as the last 4 a bit in jeopardy especially with Arizona coming on. (Regular Season Over)
18) Purdue (Lock) Resume slipped a bit down the stretch, and looks a step behind the Wisconsin/ Maryland/Oregon trio. (Regular Season Over)
19) Michigan (Lock) Lost the last 3 games of the regular season and the quality numbers took a huge tumble (now sitting at 30+ across the board). Making up for it in the Big 10 tournament but still stuck on the 5 line. (Regular Season Over)
20) Ole Miss (Lock) 6 Quad1A wins, only Alabama, Auburn and UK have more. Only 1 loss outside of Quad 1. Quality numbers lack a bit but there is enough here to be a 6 seed or perhaps even a 5. (Regular Season Over)
6 Seeds
21) Louisville (Lock) Their resume avg is 13.7 which is higher than Maryland, Iowa State, Arizona, and everyone below a 4. That is a bit surprising given they are 0-3 vs. Quad 1A. They do have 4 quad 1 wins and no bad losses though. Only 1 loss since December 14th. The 23 point loss to Ole Miss (and going 0-4 vs. the SEC) may be what keeps them off the 5 line. (Regular Season Over)
22) BYU (Lock) The hottest team in college basketball, racking up elite wins lately after they had started the season 0-7 vs. quad 1. Made that 6-7 before losing in the Big 12 semis to Houston. (Regular Season Over)
23) UCLA (Lock) Impressive 5-3 vs. quad 1A and 9 Quad 1 wins. All of the resume numbers are in the 20s so there isn't too much of a compelling case to go higher than a 6. (Regular Season Over)
24) Illinois (Lock) Impressive close to the year blowing out Michigan in Ann Arbor and then beating Purdue. Illinois should be a 6 or 7. (Regular Season Over)
7 Seeds
25) St. Mary's (Lock) Poor scheduling and how strong the 6 line is slips the Gaels back to a 7. (Regular Season Over)
26) Kansas (Lock) 6 quad 1 wins, #18 in the quality metrics, 7 feels like an underseed but with the quality of the 5 and 6 lines I am not sure who you displace. (Regular Season Over)
27) Gonzaga (Lock) Gonzaga had 1 quad 1 win 2 weeks ago but pick up 3 quad 1 wins in their last 4 games to go along with elite (top 10) quality metrics. Their resume will still lag, and you have to wonder if they will get full credit for the tournament wins, but I also believe the committee doesn't want to make a 1 seed play Gonzaga in the 1st weekend. (Regular Season Over)
28) Memphis (Lock) Quality numbers (Avg. 49.7) and 3 quad 3 losses cap this profile as a 7 seed. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see them as an 8. (Regular Season Over)
8 Seeds
29) Missouri (Lock) They probably wish they didn't play 8 quad 4 games (more than anyone else in the top 9 seed lines other than St. Mary's. That really hurts their overall profile. Under .500 vs quad 1+2 also pushes them down a bit. There is still so much good on this resume but I wouldn't be shocked at all to see them land as low as an 8 seed given how strong the 6 and 7 lines are. (Regular Season Over)
30) Marquette (Lock) Lose the last 2 to UConn and St. John's to end the year. Should be a 7 or 8 on Selection Sunday. (Regular Season Over)
31) Mississippi State (Lock) MSU is not that far behind the 5 seed line yet could conceivably could wind up as a 9. If they do they can thank their non conference SOS as being not quite at the same level as their Big East peers around them. (Regular Season Over)
32) UConn (Lock) There is a large gap between 33 and 34. UConn/Miss St/Creighton all very close and someone has to be a 9. Even though Creighton beat UConn twice, I give the nod to UConn based on the non conference.. (Regular Season Over)
9 Seeds
33) Creighton (Lock) Solidly an 8 or 9 seed. 6-5 vs. quad 1 with no bad losses. A little too much of the resume is built on quad 3 and 4 success to be more than an 8. Very close to UConn and Miss St. but someone has to be the 9. (Regular Season Over)
34) New Mexico (Lock) The win over UCLA and winning the MWC regular season will earn the Lobos a 9 seed. (Regular Season Over)
35) Georgia (Lock) 4 straight big wins to end the year including beating Florida sent the Bulldogs soaring up the seed lines. An early exit in the SECT shouldn't hurt too much. I am a bit higher on Uga but I think a lot of that is folks waking up to see how much the numbers improved over the last 2 weeks. (Regular Season over)
36) Baylor (Lock) Baylor should be breathing a bit easier after beating K State in the Big 12 tournament and probably has done enough to avoid Dayton. With a KPI of 48 though don't be surprised to see them seeded a bit lower though. (Regular Season Over)
10 Seeds
37) Utah State (Lock) - Quality metrics around 50 are a bit scary for an at large team but 9-7 vs. quad 1 + 2 and no bad losses means they are a lock and should be safe enough to avoid Dayton. (Regular Season Over)
38) Oklahoma (Lock) A roller coaster ride for Sooner fans after starting 13-0 non-conference, then 4-12 in conference, felt like they needed to win each of their last 2 conference games vs. Mizzou and Texas and they did just that. 7 Q1 wins with non-conference wins over Michigan, Arizona and Louisville feels like it will be enough. (Regular Season Over)
39) Drake (Missouri Valley Auto bid Secured) Drake avoids all drama associated with Selection Sunday and clinches the auto bid. Should be near the 10 line. 2-0 vs. Quad 1 beating Vanderbilt on a neutral court and winning at Kansas State. Only 3 losses all year and they are all quad 3 losses. Terrible quality numbers in the mid-60's (Regular Season Over)
40) West Virginia (Lock) 4 quad 1A wins, 6 quad 1, and no bad losses. Always a great recipe for avoiding Dayton. Quality metrics in the mid 40s will keep WVU in the 10 seed range even after the early exit to the Big 12 tournament. (Regular Season Over)
11 Seeds
41) Arkansas (Lock) Back-to-back big wins over Vanderbilt and Miss State to end the year moves the Hogs to lock status. 4 Quad 1A wins @Michigan, @Kentucky, @Texas and vs. Mizzou. (Regular Season Over)
Last 4 at large In
42) Vanderbilt (Lock) The loss to Texas in the 1st round of the SECT means that Vandy may be an 11 seed and potentially could wind up in Dayton. Quality numbers into the 40s look very Daytonesque. I am still confident their 5 quad 1 wins and no bad losses have them dancing. (Regular Season Over)
43) UC San Diego Big West Auto Bid At 30-4 they may not have needed the auto bid but they got it anyways. Winners of 15 straight (Regular Season Over)
44) San Diego State - Struggled in conference play including an early exit to the MWC tournament. If they ultimately get in it feels like they can thank that November win vs. Houston as the difference. (Regular Season Over)
45) Colorado State MWC Auto Bid CSU removes all doubt by dominating Boise State and punching their auto bid ticket. (Regular Season Over)
12 seeds
46) VCU Atlantic 10 Auto Bid Final projection is they would have been last team in if they didn't get the auto bd but they took the drama out of the selection. Would not be surprised to see VCU as an 11, part of the reason for them being a 12 is me betting on the committee laziness of not wanting to create a contingency bracket. (Regular Season Over)
47) Indiana The win at Michigan State feels like the difference maker. Also beat Purdue and was 5-0 in quad 2. (Regular Season Over)
48) Xavier Winners of 7 straight to end the year to be on the right side of the bubble going into the conference tournament but they went 0-1 there to leave them very vulnerable to other teams jumping over them and/or a bid thief or 2. (Regular Season Over)
Auto Bids:
49) Liberty - Conference USA
50) McNeese St. - Southland
13 Seeds
51) High Point - Big South
52) Akron - MAC
53) Yale Ivy
54) Grand Canyon WAC
14 seeds
55) Lipscomb Atlantic Sun
56) Troy Sun Belt
57) UNCW Coastal
58) Robert Morris Horizon
15 Seeds
59) Montana Big Sky
60) Wofford Southern
61) Norfolk State MEAC
62) Omaha Summit
16 Seeds
63) Bryant America East
64) SIUE - OVC
Dayton
65) American Patriot League
66) Mount St. Mary's MAAC
67) Alabama State - SWAC
68) S. Francis (PA) NEC
Bid Thieves (Teams that are not already in and would take away a spot from a team in now by getting an at large)
A year after 5 true bid thieves, it looks increasingly likely we have the opposite this year,
Clinched
MWC: Colorado State
Possible:
American: UAB
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69) North Carolina What a way to lose and potentially end the season. Getting blown out by 24, come all the way back with a chance to win it at the line, clank one and a lane violation on the 2nd. Absolutely brutal. Fall to 1-12 vs. quad 1. They also have a quad 3 loss. I think ultimately UNC will be in the first 5 out Feels like they probably need to beat Duke to stay in. We will see how the rest of the bubble does the next 2 days to see how many spots are still available but looks like ultimately the Tar Heels will be just out. (Regular Season Over)
70) Texas Horns had the #285 non-conference and took 2 losses. Then they went 6-12 in the SEC. With those 6 wins and the 2 in the tournament they did get to 7 quad 1 wins which is clearly the highlight of the resume. Minnesota also has 7 quad 1 wins and they won't make the NIT though. Ultimately this just feels like a resume that would typically be a first four out resume, but someone needs to play their way in to get those last spot or 2. (Regular Season Over)
71) Boise State Tough break for Boise State getting 2 good wins over SDSU and New Mexico in the tournament only to fall to CSU. They did beat St. Mary's and Clemson in the non-conference, but they also picked up a quad 3 and quad 4 loss in the process. They would be 5th in the pecking order out of the Mountain West and it's hard to see the committee going that way over a 4th ACC team. (Regular Season Over)
72) Ohio State Lose the first game of the Big 10 Tournament to Iowa to fall to 17-15 on the season. I think had they won that game they would have snuck into Dayton but just 11-15 vs. quad 1 + 2 + 3, Even with 6 quad 1 wins typically you don't get an at large if you can't go .500 vs the top 3 quads. Buckeyes likely headed to the NIT. (Regular Season Over)
73) UC Irvine UCI will be one of the first few teams out but I don't think putting them in as an at large will be a lengthy discussion. 94h in the BPI and 80 in Torvik. They are 39th in KPI and got a Q1A win at UC San Diego but beyond that there just isn't much too this resume other than a gaudy record and this type of profile never gets in.(Regular Season Over)
74) Wake Forest Faded badly down the stretch with the resume numbers falling to near 50 and the quality numbers near 70. The neutral court win over Michigan carried them for a bit but with Michigan also fading this looks like a NIT resume. (Regular Season Over)
Eliminated in the last week:
Nebraska (Sunday 3/9)
San Francisco (Monday 3/10)
Dayton (Friday 3/14)
