Coach McNeilly to Minnesota?

19,192 Views | 165 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by MarcAg
bobinator
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No it isn't. We were that far out.

We had a NET of 113, BPI of 131, KenPom of 130, SAG of 86 KPI of 74 and SOR of 92

Let's average all those out and say that the computers had us at 104. I know they don't go exactly by the computers but these days it's pretty close, usually +/- a seed line unless there's some kind of wild scenario.

There are 31 autobids and 37 at-large selections. Let's base it on this year's tournament and say 13 of the automatic bids are from small conferences and would have been ranked behind us.

That means 18 autobids plus 37 teams ahead of us which is 55 teams.

So, even if there's a whole second 68-team tournament of all at-large teams we'd have only been a 14-seed in that second tournament.
Logan Lee
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I do think they had a chance. I said they had the chance to win the first two games, and anything could happen from there. I remember talking to Olin about "if they can get to Saturday, they could win and get the championship game."

If they could get to the championship game, then the talk that was buzzing around was that they had a chance to sneak in.

That was the talk. There were a lot of if's, but those if's weren't crazy wild statements.

Here are the questions to ask:

Do you think they could have won two games and made it to Saturday?
Do you think they had the potential to win saturday and play in the championship game?

Because, if you think that, then there was a chance for the Ags to sneak in the tournament. The only thing holding them back were the losses to Harvard, Temple and Fairfield in that Orlando tournament. But, from what people were saying about the committee, is that they might take into account the fact that Buzz needed time to implement his system and that system was showing through. The argument was a 10-8 conference record, when they were picked to finish somewhere around 12 to 14 in league. And then winning three games and getting to the championship game of the SEC tournament.

Does the committee "forgive" the bad losses early in the year when the team was still figuring Buzz out, and take into the final month of play, which is always weighted heavier?

Proposition Joe
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We weren't close to making the tournament.

To even suggest we did kind of invalidates all of the other "excuses".

His first two years were underwhelming.

If you want to point to a reason for hope, point to his resume -- not what he did here Year 1 and 2.

"SEC Coach of the Year" was a "hey you sucked in non-conference but were competent in conference play" award. You could just as easily frame that as "You had the talent to be competitive in conference so preparation and coaching was what caused you to fail in non-conference".
bobinator
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Obviously pulling off three straight upsets would have helped our numbers so we'd have probably moved up the charts a bit in NCAA Tournament II and been comfortably in, I was being a little hyperbolic with that, but the point remains that there was absolutely way we were getting into the NCAA Tournament.

None.
bobinator
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If that was the talk then it was between folks who have no idea how the NCAA Tournament selections work.
Logan Lee
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You aren't weighing options like the committee would have done. Refer to the last post I made about possibly forgiving the HORRIBLE Orlando tournament and weight it more heavily on the final part of the season.

If all of that plays out, there was a chance. I didn't say a GREAT chance. I said a chance. And that was my point.

Logan Lee
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So you think his first year was underwhelming when they were voted to be 12, 13, 14 in conference and they ended the year with a 10-8 record.

You thought the year was underwhelming by having Chuck become one of the more consistent players in conference and Nebo basically dominating EVERY post in the SEC.

I too, thought they should have won more games in the beginning of the year, but I also knew there was going to be a big adjustment period to the way Buzz coaches, especially from the way the team had been coach by BK.

But, that doesn't mean the first year wasn't better than anyone thought.

And, you may not think so, but I didn't expect A&M to win more than 6 games in conference (after the first handful of games) and then they won double digits. I would say that's a good year for them. That's the whole point of this conversation.
Tavares19
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But there is like zero chance because that isn't how the process works. Whether it's fair or not they don't just forgive losses to Fairfield. We had one regular season ranked win (and yes it was an awesome win but still that's it)
gig them
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I just perused a handful of NIT Bracketology articles (all written after our final two wins to close the season), and I couldn't find one that suggests we had a legitimate shot at that tournament.


bobinator
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They don't forgive you being horrible early in the season because you have a new coach. MAYBE that would be an argument if it were close by the numbers as a tiebreaker, but it wouldn't have been.
bobinator
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Prop Joe doesn't give any credit for the coach of the year thing because he doesn't believe in teams improving over the course of a season or that more time in a system helps. That's all 'excuses' as he puts it.

The insane argument about the NCAA Tournament aside, for me it's this easy:

- We were worse than we should have been to start 2020, but not WAY worse, just worse
- We gelled and improved and ended up about where we'd hoped we'd be. So I call season one a moderate success.
- Last year was an outright disaster for a lot of reasons, many of which were out of the coaches control
- If we come back next year and have a solid bounce back year and at least compete for the tournament then it'll be easy to just forget this season.
- If we absolutely suck next year then we've got problems.
Logan Lee
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Why does COY not mean anything?

And, I agree that we started worse than expected, but a lot of teams have to take some time to "get it together in a new system," and that's obviously what happened.

Why does a coach get heat for not living up to preseason rankings, but it's an underwhelming season, even if the team was picked dang near last and then won 10 conference games?

As for last year, some teams dealt with every well, some teams didn't.

AND the biggest part I agree with... If A&M isn't good next season, there are some questions to be asked.

And, while I see and understand everything everyone has said about the tournament, we are going to have to agree to disagree. I never said the Ags were a lock to make it if they didn't win the SEC tournament, but I did say they were trending up and had some work to do. And I fully believe that.
Proposition Joe
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Logan Lee said:

You aren't weighing options like the committee would have done. Refer to the last post I made about possibly forgiving the HORRIBLE Orlando tournament and weight it more heavily on the final part of the season.

If all of that plays out, there was a chance. I didn't say a GREAT chance. I said a chance. And that was my point.

Had the SEC Tourney played out by seeding we would have beat a bad Missouri team, a #20 Auburn team that we already beat, and an unranked LSU team.

Zero chance that would have jettisoned us into even a bubble contender.
DeangeloVickers
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bobinator
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I guess we can agree to disagree but it's like agreeing to disagree that the earth is round. It's truly a take so bad that it's hard to talk about other takes.

Maybe in the old days when there wasn't as much public pressure on the committee or back when your performance in your last ten games was actually part of the selection criteria there'd have been an outside chance.

But all you really need for a comp is this year's Oregon State. They had some ugly losses in non-conference, but ended up 10-10 in conference. Their computer numbers this year were significantly better than ours last year (they had an average in the 70's), they made a miracle run to their conference championship, they committee could have said they wouldn't take into account the early season because of all of the cancellations and adjusting to the COVID year, but everyone agreed there was still no way they were going to get in unless they beat Colorado in the Pac 12 Championship, which they ultimately did.

wacarnolds
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Proposition Joe said:


"SEC Coach of the Year" was a "hey you sucked in non-conference but were competent in conference play" award. You could just as easily frame that as "You had the talent to be competitive in conference so preparation and coaching was what caused you to fail in non-conference".

All the preseason rankings had us finishing 12th or 13th in conference, and we ended up tied for 6th, so it's a bit disingenuous to say the reason he won the award is because of our terrible non conference play

The disastrous tournament results lowered expectations to rock bottom, but he definitely deserved recognition for the 2nd half turnaround.
Proposition Joe
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bobinator said:

Prop Joe doesn't give any credit for the coach of the year thing because he doesn't believe in teams improving over the course of a season or that more time in a system helps. That's all 'excuses' as he puts it.

The insane argument about the NCAA Tournament aside, for me it's this easy:

- We were worse than we should have been to start 2020, but not WAY worse, just worse
- We gelled and improved and ended up about where we'd hoped we'd be. So I call season one a moderate success.
- Last year was an outright disaster for a lot of reasons, many of which were out of the coaches control
- If we come back next year and have a solid bounce back year and at least compete for the tournament then it'll be easy to just forget this season.
- If we absolutely suck next year then we've got problems.

I'm fine giving credit for COY.

What I don't do is somehow re-frame things to make things look significantly better than they were. Playing decent in conference play somehow got twisted to us "playing as good as anyone in the nation at the end of the year!" and "we had a chance to make the tournament!".

We had zero chance to make the tournament as an at-large.

We weren't playing "as good as anyone in the nation" at the end of the year. In our last 2 games yes we knocked off #20 Auburn on the road and beat unranked Arkansas at home. The two games before that we got handled by Kentucky at home and blown out by unranked LSU.

We had a 100+ NET Buzz' first year. It was a bad year. Now, you can say that he improved in conference play and no one will argue that, but winning SEC COY doesn't somehow re-frame the year as a good or event decent year. The losses still happened. It's very similar to the re-framing of Kennedy's first year that we weren't actually supposed to be any good and other coaches just voted us high preseason as a parting shot for leaving the conference.

It's a habit many on this board have -- excuses, excuses, excuses rather than looking at the actual results. And then when we move on from a coach it's "oh yeah we all saw that coming".

I think whether you thought Year 1 was "ok" or "bad", most agreed that we were playing at least competent ball at the end of the year and were excited to see things moving in the positive direction in Year 2. Then we came out of the gate and got dominated by a Big 12 bottom feeder as well as struggling to dispatch mighty Tarleton. So many then shifted the narrative to "oh well yeah COVID didn't let Buzz install his normal preseason routines".

Yeah, no team got to install their normal preseason routines. It's an excuse.

Couple that with the "well who really knows why we seemed to be the only team that couldn't play basketball for the entire month of February?" and anyone that wasn't wearing maroon-colored glasses could tell you that there was some preparation and discipline issues with this team.

Was Buzz a slamdunk hire? Yes. Do I want Buzz here? Yes. Do I think Buzz will improve this team going forward? Yes.

But some of you defending the first two years here as anything other than underwhelming sound like the same bunch that took 4 years to finally figure out that Kennedy wasn't cut out to coach at this level.
expresswrittenconsent
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It's OK to admit to making a mistake.
bobinator
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For me it's not reframing the whole year as a success, but I think by the end we were "on track" of where I'd hoped Buzz would have us before the season started so that's why I consider it a moderate success. Like a C+ or B-.

But we didn't carry that momentum into the second year.

And you and I have hashed out this season many times that it's not worth going into, but whether the excuses are valid or not will depend on how good we are to start next season. If we're decent it'll be easy to say that not having a normal offseason killed us and now things are back on track, if we suck again then that was just another excuse right?

Some excuses can be legitimate reasons, but sometimes you don't know until later.
Hop
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bobinator said:

For me it's not reframing the whole year as a success, but I think by the end we were "on track" of where I'd hoped Buzz would have us before the season started so that's why I consider it a moderate success. Like a C+ or B-.

But we didn't carry that momentum into the second year.

And you and I have hashed out this season many times that it's not worth going into, but whether the excuses are valid or not will depend on how good we are to start next season. If we're decent it'll be easy to say that not having a normal offseason killed us and now things are back on track, if we suck again then that was just another excuse right?

Some excuses can be legitimate reasons, but sometimes you don't know until later.


But you have to acknowledge that Buzz has always been a highly detailed routine "system" guy and a "culture" guy...team building within a system where the result is greater than the sum of the parts kinda thing.

When it was apparent there would be no offseason and the team met and practiced for the first time in early September, I knew it was going to be a grind early in the season but hoping that by conference play we'd see something similar to last season. Then Covid protocol hit and the team again didn't practice for a month. They came back, played 3-4 games and that's it.

In my mind, knowing how Buzz succeeds in this business, he didnt have enough practice time with this group. That's not an excuse. That is how he operates. We knew that when we hired him. He was never an elite recruiter who could roll the ball out and go watch type of coach. He's a heavy prep guy who couldn't prep this year.

We both agree that this season will be defined by next year as you say. For now, I choose to look at his history and what is most critical in that historical success, and due to Covid he was not able to execute his most critical element to success in 2020-2021. So for now, I'm not going to put much weight into the 2021 season in terms of projecting Buzz's future performance.

Next year's performance will tell us a lot about his tenure and the direction of the program. He seems to realize that as well which is why we are seeing changes.
bobinator
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I have been saying that. That's why I don't think it's an excuse, I think it's a legitimate reason. Prop Joe thinks it's an excuse, that's what the debate is about.

Here's the distilled down version of what I think:

1 - It's important for Buzz to have some players in place that know what he expects and how he operates. This is why (along with Nebo being hurt for the preseason practices) we started so slow in year one.
2 - Buzz adjusted well over the course of the season as the players learned each other and their roles and by the end of the year the train was headed the right direction heading into the offseason.
3 - Buzz relies a lot on a carefully detailed offseason, which we didn't get this year. This especially hurt our freshmen who basically didn't contribute anything outside of Diarra.
4 - Buzz did not adjust well in-season to the COVID issues. (This isn't concerning for the long-term trajectory of the program because it was a unique situation that we'll hopefully never see again.)
5 - With a normal offseason and a normal season, we'll see some progress from our returning players and at least look like a more cohesive group when next season starts.

But, if 5 doesn't happen, and we're absolutely horrible again to start the season, then 3 loses validity and we've got problems.

Now, to be clear, that doesn't mean we have to be good to start the year. We just can't be horrible.
Logan Lee
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I definitely don't think that entire year was a success, but the fact that the team was at rock bottom, no matter how they got there and then they dug out of the hole and made it to a successful season should show that the year wasn't underwhelming or an underperformance.

I agree that they played worse than crap at the beginning, but I do think they were playing much, much, much better and were trending in a more positive direction than anyone thought they would be.

They took a significant leap forward and that, to me, makes the year successful, especially when EVERYONE was counting on a 2-3 win conference season (after the Orlando tournament).

Mikeyshooter
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I'd rather hire a new coach not currently affiliated with the program. I think a fresh set of ideas could provide a boost to our flailing offensive system and whatever it is we do on the defensive end.
MarcAg
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Mikeyshooter said:

I'd rather hire a new coach not currently affiliated with the program. I think a fresh set of ideas could provide a boost to our flailing offensive system and whatever it is we do on the defensive end.


I would like to see a coach with some ties to DFW. Increase our recruiting presence there even more.
txag10
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Logan, I'm Team Buzz here...fully believe he'll get this thing turned around. The end of the 19-20 season was awesome. Wins @Tennesee, @Auburn, and Arky were epic. Fully enjoyed the in-season turnaround to get to 10-8 in SEC play. Also believe the team was set to go on a nice little run in the SEC Tournament. But the fact is without winning the tournament championship and gaining the auto bid, there is absolutely no chance that team could have gotten an at-large bid into NCAA Tournament, even if they lost in the SEC Tournament final. Just absurd to insinuate they could have gotten an at-large bid.
Wicked Good Ag
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I don't think anyone isn't saying we were not trending upward at the end of the 19-20 season. We were. But that said we weren't making the NCAA without the auto bid. Not a chance. Buzz is a routine guy...I get that as well and this is a one year outlier but under the same exact conditions two programs in the SEC have made great strides and a less of a salary then Buzz.

Do I think that Buzz will greatly improve over the next couple of years ...sure but we now are behind two teams for the foreseeable future. The fact that we are search the portal for it seems all 1500+ names kinda scares me in what direction this program is going. The fact that Flagg left a program at our level and went to Sam speaks volumes as well on a couple of different fronts
Wicked Good Ag
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Edit DP
bobinator
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Wicked Good Ag said:

The fact that we are search the portal for it seems all 1500+ names kinda scares me in what direction this program is going.
I don't get why that would bother you at all. Just because we're being aggressive in reaching out doesn't mean we're actually offering a spot to everyone. If anything for me it's the other way. It shows the staff knows we have some holes and they're working hard to fill them.

A mediocre player that plays a small role is better than an empty roster spot.
JJxvi
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I look forward to telling my grandkids about the greatest shooter at A&M that never played at A&M.
bobinator
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What's better, the rumored skill of Cash or alternate-reality-never-left-A&M BCG?
MarcAg
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Wicked Good Ag said:


The fact that we are search the portal for it seems all 1500+ names kinda scares me in what direction this program is going. The fact that Flagg left a program at our level and went to Sam speaks volumes as well on a couple of different fronts

1) Some teams that has been very aggressive in the portal the last few years; Baylor, Texas Tech, Arkansas, Alabama, Florida. If you aren't aggressive in the portal then you probably aren't doing it right. Even when you are a top 25 team you should be active in the portal trying to upgrade your roster.

2) What does Flagg leaving the program say? I am curious what you mean by "speaks volumes" on couple of fronts. Do you mean it speaks that our talent level this past year was not great? If so, I agree.


Wicked Good Ag
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Yes that Flagg leaves and decides to go Sam shows the level of talent we actually had since he was a huge minute guy and the fact that a huge minute guy would rather leave the school he has been at for 4 years to go to Sam

as for the portal it is the new recruiting tool but the fact we are in communication with it seems like everyone then it means the kids he recruited before arent good enough, which means another issue entirely


I hope he does well, he has a proven track record but like others sick of the well wait

"TJ Starks is amazing he can carry us"...gone a few weeks into Buzz tenure

"Cashius is the shooter we are needing...just wait and see" ...hmm

"JJ Chandler will change this entire program"...barely played, but at least more than Cash

it is an endless cycle in our program no matter who is in charge of it
expresswrittenconsent
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Hard to give your post any credibility with the Chandler part.
MarcAg
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Wicked Good Ag said:

Yes that Flagg leaves and decides to go Sam shows the level of talent we actually had since he was a huge minute guy and the fact that a huge minute guy would rather leave the school he has been at for 4 years to go to Sam
You sure your fact is a fact?
MarcAg
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So you are going to fault Buzz for Starks and his family being upset TJ got arrested and suspended? TJ who also got suspended during BK tenure
 
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