Could two amateurs scramble to win the Masters?

26,645 Views | 492 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by CapCity12thMan
CapCity12thMan
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AG
AGNC course rating/slope is unofficial, so nobody really knows, but speculation from various sources I am gonna average those and say 75/140. Other may say it is harder but let's start there

https://www.usga.org/handicap-calculator/course-handicap-table.html?cr=75&sr=140&par=72

A +2 handicap course handicap would be a 1. This player would only shoot his handicap 20% of the time, the other 80% above it. So let's say this person has a good day and shoots his handicap - he would turn in a 75, maybe 74 depending on the rounding/calcs. A superb outlier of a day, he shoots 69 or 70.

Could two +2 hdcps beat a PGA Professional in a round at Augusta? Yes...over 72 holes? No way. Statistics just don't line up.

EDIT: saying +2s are "near tour pro" is way off the mark. I have a +3 and can't even qualify for a USGA Amateur event. Stop and think what sort of handicap it takes to regularly shoot under par on a difficult course. You're talking +6-+8 range. I have some playing partners that qualified for the US Four Ball this week. They shot -8 in their qualifier. Great players. They also just finished runner up in a local Four Ball event, shooting 62-64 (-16), arguably an easier/"gettable" course. Both players are +1.6 GHIN hdcps.

In the USGA 36 hole stroke play qualifying to make the match play round, they shot +2. You had to shoot -8 in a two man best ball just to make the cut. https://www.usga.org/content/usga/home-page/championships/2022/u-s--amateur-four-ball.html#!scoring

...now, a scramble is a bit different, I'll give you that, but even so... +2s aren't THAT good for this argument.
Yesterday
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CapCity12thMan said:

AGNC course rating/slope is unofficial, so nobody really knows, but speculation from various sources I am gonna average those and say 75/140. Other may say it is harder but let's start there

https://www.usga.org/handicap-calculator/course-handicap-table.html?cr=75&sr=140&par=72

A +2 handicap course handicap would be a 1. This player would only shoot his handicap 20% of the time, the other 80% above it. So let's say this person has a good day and shoots his handicap - he would turn in a 75, maybe 74 depending on the rounding/calcs. A superb outlier of a day, he shoots 69 or 70.

Could two +2 hdcps beat a PGA Professional in a round at Augusta? Yes...over 72 holes? No way. Statistics just don't line up.

EDIT: saying +2s are "near tour pro" is way off the mark. I have a +3 and can't even qualify for a USGA Amateur event. Stop and think what sort of handicap it takes to regularly shoot under par on a difficult course. You're talking +6-+8 range. I have some playing partners that qualified for the US Four Ball this week. They shot -8 in their qualifier. Great players. They also just finished runner up in a local Four Ball event, shooting 62-64 (-16), arguably an easier/"gettable" course. Both players are +1.6 GHIN hdcps.

In the USGA 36 hole stroke play qualifying to make the match play round, they shot +2. You had to shoot -8 in a two man best ball just to make the cut. https://www.usga.org/content/usga/home-page/championships/2022/u-s--amateur-four-ball.html#!scoring

...now, a scramble is a bit different, I'll give you that, but even so... +2s aren't THAT good for this argument.
A scramble and best ball isn't a bit different imo, it's vastly different! I do agree that +2's are not PGA level, but in a scramble and if they play well they would compete. Hypotheticals are fun.
jja79
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AG
If JFF can be on the 1st page of the sunday leader board at the US Open I don't see why a couple of +2's couldn't win the dang thing.

As CapCity said I think the gap between a +2 and a PGA Tour player much wider than people think. We have a small group of Tour players, a KFT player and a young guy who plays the APT at our club. When they play with the best members which are 0-+2 or so they absolutely dismantle them.

The scramble would shave off a few strokes but neither of the +2's would be good enough not to be out of position frequently even in that format.
Shaggie 05
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AG
You must be friends with Kyle and Ben. Was surprised with that +2 if so. And I know totally different course conditions, but they also shot a -13 18 holes at a local 2 man scramble recently.

I'm firmly in the camp that 2 +2 could compete. The scramble part just changes things so much. 2 shots at everything, especially around the greens - seeing green receptiveness, speeds, and lines would make a HUGE difference.

It's also been said many times by many people that tee to green at Augusta isn't that bad, it's all about the greens. The two shots, plenty of practice, and 2 caddies (I'd take a local) all add up to a great chance to they could make a run.
aginlakeway
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Shaggie 05 said:

You must be friends with Kyle and Ben. Was surprised with that +2 if so. And I know totally different course conditions, but they also shot a -13 18 holes at a local 2 man scramble recently.

I'm firmly in the camp that 2 +2 could compete. The scramble part just changes things so much. 2 shots at everything, especially around the greens - seeing green receptiveness, speeds, and lines would make a HUGE difference.

It's also been said many times by many people that tee to green at Augusta isn't that bad, it's all about the greens. The two shots, plenty of practice, and 2 caddies (I'd take a local) all add up to a great chance to they could make a run.

I have played Augusta National. If you play it from the new back tees, it is a very long course. But still, it is mostly all about the greens. BUT it's also about the atmosphere of the place ...

Non-PGA pros are not used to the crowns and cameras, etc. IMO, even playing as a scramble, they would struggle to break par if they were playing during the tournament.
Thisguy1
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A group of 4 (two decent an average, and a terrible golfer) can beat tour pros in a scramble format. The best handicap from the group is I think a 4.

Two +2s scrambling are competing.
evestor1
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I'd put money on the two dudes scrambling to make the weekend assuming they are modern day +2 and not 1987 guy that cant hit it over 230 yards.



Quote:

And what would the +2s be if they were playing on courses in the nicest shape they'll be all year, putts rolling fast but true and people on every hole finding every ball?

I would do anything to not lose a drive that is stuck in bermuda rough 6' off the fairway!


CapCity12thMan
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played with Ben a number of times in friendly games when he was here in Austin and on a couple of team events. Great player, but the next level - I will say in this example a USGA event...just goes to show you how tough this game is. Surprised they were over par as well. I was at the qualifier they were medalist at in Carrolton for the 4-ball. Me and my partner shot -3, standing on the 16th tee at -4 and just didn't finish (my age started to show and I was TIRED). Had just birdied 11 and 15 and had some good momentum. We only had one hole where we had to get up and down for par all day...so it was a stress free day for us. Guys in our group were -3 on the 16th tee and finished birdie-birdie-birdie. We didn't make a bogey until the last, just didn't birdie enough. Great learning experience though. You really have to be patient and just slug along, hit fairways, hit greens but pick your spots.
DGrimesAg92
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Aggie369 said:

I'll say they could compete scoring wise on any given round but not with crowds and TV cameras


If they're +2's, crowds and TV won't phase them a bit.
CapCity12thMan
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AG

Quote:

If they're +2's, crowds and TV won't phase them a bit.

really? How many +2s play in front of crowds. Major Championship crowds. Seriously.

Also the PGA this week is playing 78.2/140. A +2 course handicap would be a 6 hdcp there. So on a good day, a +2 is gonna shoot 76-77. A great day may sneak close to par.

https://www.usga.org/handicap-calculator/course-handicap-table.html?cr=78.2&sr=142&par=70
mavsfan4ever
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AG
A pair of +2s will average -10 to -14 on your average bbq tour 2 man scramble tournaments. They would routinely/easily beat the score of a pro in those types of tournaments.

I know it's a different course and the scores would be higher at Augusta, but that's true for both the scramblers and the pros. So I have to think they'd at least make the cut and probably compete if they could scramble at the masters as long as they are a pair of +2s that are relatively young and can hit the ball far. There's no way that a pair of young/long +2s are shooting over par while scrambling at Augusta after having some practice rounds.
aginlakeway
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mavsfan4ever said:

A pair of +2s will average -10 to -14 on your average bbq tour 2 man scramble tournaments. They would routinely/easily beat the score of a pro in those types of tournaments.

I know it's a different course and the scores would be higher at Augusta, but that's true for both the scramblers and the pros. So I have to think they'd at least make the cut and probably compete if they could scramble at the masters as long as they are a pair of +2s that are relatively young and can hit the ball far. There's no way that a pair of young/long +2s are shooting over par while scrambling at Augusta after having some practice rounds.

Huge understatements there. A +2 will average higher than 75 Augusta FROM THE BACK TEES. And you're discounting playing in front of the galleries and the cameras.

This reminds me of the old "no first timer breaks 90 at Pine Valley" stories ...
Yesterday
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CapCity12thMan said:


Quote:

If they're +2's, crowds and TV won't phase them a bit.

really? How many +2s play in front of crowds. Major Championship crowds. Seriously.

Also the PGA this week is playing 78.2/140. A +2 course handicap would be a 6 hdcp there. So on a good day, a +2 is gonna shoot 76-77. A great day may sneak close to par.

https://www.usga.org/handicap-calculator/course-handicap-table.html?cr=78.2&sr=142&par=70


Using that same logic a pro would shoot par or -1 on a good day. So it's not crazy to think two playing a scramble which is way less pressure can compete.


aginlakeway
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Yesterday said:

CapCity12thMan said:


Quote:

If they're +2's, crowds and TV won't phase them a bit.

really? How many +2s play in front of crowds. Major Championship crowds. Seriously.

Also the PGA this week is playing 78.2/140. A +2 course handicap would be a 6 hdcp there. So on a good day, a +2 is gonna shoot 76-77. A great day may sneak close to par.

https://www.usga.org/handicap-calculator/course-handicap-table.html?cr=78.2&sr=142&par=70


Using that same logic a pro would shoot par or -1 on a good day. So it's not crazy to think two playing a scramble which is way less pressure can compete.




Two amateurs who are not used to playing in front of cameras and huge galleries ... and they're playing Augusta National ... would feel intense pressure. It's impossible to overstate that.

There is a reason why scratch handicap non-golf pro athletes struggle on the golf course in front of galleries and cameras.
Yesterday
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They also struggle because they're not used to playing ball down tournaments. Play with those guys all the time. When big money is on the line they play like the 3-4 handicaps they are.

I agree that galleries and cameras would add stress. I think you would agree playing your own shot is a lot more stressful than knowing you have someone else to rely/help.
Thisguy1
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Yesterday said:

They also struggle because they're not used to playing ball down tournaments. Play with those guys all the time. When big money is on the line they play like the 3-4 handicaps they are.

I agree that galleries and cameras would add stress. I think you would agree playing your own shot is a lot more stressful than knowing you have someone else to rely/help.


So how would the ball be played in a scramble format at Augusta? First shot has to play it down, second drops from the knee? Both players get a scorecard from the original location but both pretty much play lift, clean, place like most scramble formats?
Shaggie 05
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Yesterday said:

They also struggle because they're not used to playing ball down tournaments. Play with those guys all the time. When big money is on the line they play like the 3-4 handicaps they are.
But it wouldn't be a ball down tournament, it would be a scramble. So even if the ball chosen has to be played down, the second guy would always get a perfect lie.
DannyDuberstein
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Oh no, playing the ball down on perfectly conditioned Augusta National. Torture.

Been there twice and still waiting to see my first brown blade of grass
Yesterday
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Shaggie 05 said:

Yesterday said:

They also struggle because they're not used to playing ball down tournaments. Play with those guys all the time. When big money is on the line they play like the 3-4 handicaps they are.
But it wouldn't be a ball down tournament, it would be a scramble. So even if the ball chosen has to be played down, the second guy would always get a perfect lie.


I was arguing about "scratch" celebrities. Scramble is always lift clean and place within a club length. Huge advantage.
watty
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Two +2 golfers scrambling their way to a 62 in some charity scramble with easy pins and a distance of like 6400 yards is a bit different than 7500 yards or whatever that Augusta is.

Those guys are good golfers, but odds are, they aren't as long as the Tour pros. That would make a big difference.

Put it this way. On their own, what would a +2 golfer shoot in the Masters? The six amateurs in the Masters this year shot 72/79, 74/77, 81/74, 81/74, 79/81, and 81/85. Those guys are all better than +2, right? They averaged a 78. Let's be verrrry generous and say that a couple +2s could somehow shoot an 80 on their own. I highly doubt they could, but we'll say they can. You think that by scrambling, they're saving 9 shots per day and getting down to a 71 each day? If they could, that puts them at -4 and tied with Morikawa for 5th place. I don't see that happening. I'm not sure they could put together a 71 one time, let alone average 71 over four days. I think they're going to be shooting mid-70s typically and I think it would take them playing out of their minds to make the cut.
Aggie369
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Sorry, thats not accurate at all

Tournament golf is different for everyone ....especially at a major
mavsfan4ever
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I don't think some of y'all realize how much scrambling helps the scores compared to playing one ball or even playing low ball. Even if they would only shoot 78-80 at Augusta, Yes, I think scrambling could easily lower their score by 7-10 shots compared to playing their own ball. The scores for scrambling compared to low ball are drastically lower. Even more so when you compare scrambling to just playing your own ball.

And my post wasn't referring to charity tournaments with moved up tees and easy pins. I'm talking about tournaments with big calcuttas where championship flight is filled with + handicap golfers. Those courses definitely aren't Augusta (Augusta is longer and obviously harder) but these aren't super short courses and the pins are sometimes in ridiculous positions.
aginlakeway
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BLSD said:

Aggie369 said:

I'll say they could compete scoring wise on any given round but not with crowds and TV cameras


If they're +2's, crowds and TV won't phase them a bit.


My 15 years over covering golf (including 6 years at TGC) and my attending 11 Masters and me playing Augusta National the Monday after the Masters leads me to a much different conclusion.
aginlakeway
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watty said:

Two +2 golfers scrambling their way to a 62 in some charity scramble with easy pins and a distance of like 6400 yards is a bit different than 7500 yards or whatever that Augusta is.

Those guys are good golfers, but odds are, they aren't as long as the Tour pros. That would make a big difference.

Put it this way. On their own, what would a +2 golfer shoot in the Masters? The six amateurs in the Masters this year shot 72/79, 74/77, 81/74, 81/74, 79/81, and 81/85. Those guys are all better than +2, right? They averaged a 78. Let's be verrrry generous and say that a couple +2s could somehow shoot an 80 on their own. I highly doubt they could, but we'll say they can. You think that by scrambling, they're saving 9 shots per day and getting down to a 71 each day? If they could, that puts them at -4 and tied with Morikawa for 5th place. I don't see that happening. I'm not sure they could put together a 71 one time, let alone average 71 over four days. I think they're going to be shooting mid-70s typically and I think it would take them playing out of their minds to make the cut.


This post is spot on.

I'd put the over/under at 72 for a scramble. And I'd bet the over.

Unless you have been there and seen the crowds and cameras and the difficulty of the course, you just don't get it.
CapCity12thMan
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I'm gonna bet -1 is a good day this week. Pros have a much higher potential to shoot well beyond their hdcp though, so I would fully expect pros to do better than -1 on a "good" day. Then you get Charley Hoffman shooting 65 on Thursday, so it happens.

Gonna bet this week that winning score is single digits under par.
mavsfan4ever
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aginlakeway said:

mavsfan4ever said:

A pair of +2s will average -10 to -14 on your average bbq tour 2 man scramble tournaments. They would routinely/easily beat the score of a pro in those types of tournaments.

I know it's a different course and the scores would be higher at Augusta, but that's true for both the scramblers and the pros. So I have to think they'd at least make the cut and probably compete if they could scramble at the masters as long as they are a pair of +2s that are relatively young and can hit the ball far. There's no way that a pair of young/long +2s are shooting over par while scrambling at Augusta after having some practice rounds.

Huge understatements there. A +2 will average higher than 75 Augusta FROM THE BACK TEES. And you're discounting playing in front of the galleries and the cameras.

This reminds me of the old "no first timer breaks 90 at Pine Valley" stories ...


Totally agree it's an understatement. My only point was that the +2 scramblers would almost always beat a pro on these courses. Maybe they would shoot -13 and the pro would shoot -8? So it's not outlandish to say they could also beat a pro scrambling at Augusta. Maybe they'd shoot -3 and the pro would shoot -2?

I'm just throwing out numbers to make the point, not saying that's what they'd actually shoot.
Thisguy1
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aginlakeway said:

BLSD said:

Aggie369 said:

I'll say they could compete scoring wise on any given round but not with crowds and TV cameras


If they're +2's, crowds and TV won't phase them a bit.


My 15 years over covering golf (including 6 years at TGC) and my attending 11 Masters and me playing Augusta National the Monday after the Masters leads me to a much different conclusion.


Dude, we get it. You've played Augusta.
aginlakeway
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mavsfan4ever said:

aginlakeway said:

mavsfan4ever said:

A pair of +2s will average -10 to -14 on your average bbq tour 2 man scramble tournaments. They would routinely/easily beat the score of a pro in those types of tournaments.

I know it's a different course and the scores would be higher at Augusta, but that's true for both the scramblers and the pros. So I have to think they'd at least make the cut and probably compete if they could scramble at the masters as long as they are a pair of +2s that are relatively young and can hit the ball far. There's no way that a pair of young/long +2s are shooting over par while scrambling at Augusta after having some practice rounds.

Huge understatements there. A +2 will average higher than 75 Augusta FROM THE BACK TEES. And you're discounting playing in front of the galleries and the cameras.

This reminds me of the old "no first timer breaks 90 at Pine Valley" stories ...


Totally agree it's an understatement. My only point was that the +2 scramblers would almost always beat a pro on these courses. Maybe they would shoot -13 and the pro would shoot -8? So it's not outlandish to say they could also beat a pro scrambling at Augusta. Maybe they'd shoot -3 and the pro would shoot -2?

I'm just throwing out numbers to make the point, not saying that's what they'd actually shoot.

No they wouldn't it. They would choke under the pressure of the crowds and cameras. Just like most other amateurs do in major golf tournaments. Just like almost all non-golf pro athletes do when they have to play golf in front of galleries and cameras. Michael Jordan comes to mind.
aginlakeway
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Thisguy1 said:

aginlakeway said:

BLSD said:

Aggie369 said:

I'll say they could compete scoring wise on any given round but not with crowds and TV cameras


If they're +2's, crowds and TV won't phase them a bit.


My 15 years over covering golf (including 6 years at TGC) and my attending 11 Masters and me playing Augusta National the Monday after the Masters leads me to a much different conclusion.


Dude, we get it. You've played Augusta.

More importantly, I worked at TGC for 6 years and have attended literally dozens of majors for different media outlets. I have seen numerous examples of the pressure getting to non-pros when they get in front of the cameras and galleries. Mainly in the pro-am events, where the course isn't even nearly as long. Amateur golfers can't handle that pressure.

I asked a friend of mine who is a PGA instructor about this earlier today. He said they wouldn't break 75 there as a scramble.

Agree to disagree.
aginlakeway
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Thisguy1 said:

aginlakeway said:

BLSD said:

Aggie369 said:

I'll say they could compete scoring wise on any given round but not with crowds and TV cameras


If they're +2's, crowds and TV won't phase them a bit.


My 15 years over covering golf (including 6 years at TGC) and my attending 11 Masters and me playing Augusta National the Monday after the Masters leads me to a much different conclusion.


Dude, we get it. You've played Augusta.

I also put up a smooth 106 at Pine Valley way back when as a 4-handicap. I lipped out a short putt for a 105.
Thisguy1
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The cameras and the people would definitely be intimidating, but it's a lot less stressful hitting a golf shot when you know you've got another chance if you **** up.
Aggie369
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Text my buddy who has caddied and played on PGA Tour

He doesn't think they would break 80 during a tournament round.

I asked him what his handicap is and he said if he only played 1 course all the time he would be like a +10 but all of his round are tournament rounds and all at different courses. I think he's like a +5 now. He said he plays with a 5 handicap at his course when he's practicing and he gives the 5 handicap a stroke a hole. All that to say a +2 at home course isn't a traveling +2 in tournaments

I feel like they could break 80 but my guy didn't think it would be close
Yesterday
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I guess we're just going to have to convince Augusta to allow two +2 handicaps to play in the Masters.

With that said, I identify as a +2.
CapCity12thMan
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Quote:

a +2 at home course isn't a traveling +2 in tournaments

worded very well what I was trying to say. I'm a perfect example. I can't seem to translate play at a tournament very well these last couple of years and it is frustrating to no end.
Aggie369
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I took him out to Houston Oaks and he had never seen the course before and hit the ball relatively poorly for his standards and he shot 66. The course was in good condition and about to host big 12 tournament. He hasnt consistently made it on any big tour....golf is just hard
 
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