Yukon Cornelius said:

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Dang. No one is bullish enough.

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Over the long-term, I would agree. BTC market cap is around $1.2T now. Comparing BTC to the most popular "store of value, hedge against inflation", gold, with a market cap around $10T, BTC would need to rise 9x to achieve parity with gold, which I think is a decent benchmark. How long does it take to get there is the obvious question, and I don't know.

My sense is that we'll see BTC in the $120k range during this cycle (roughly by end of 2025). I've followed BTC in earnest since 2016 and been invested since 2017. Doesn't make me an expert. I'm basing my opinion on BTC historical performance/trends.

carl spacklers hat said:

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Yukon Cornelius said:

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Dang. No one is bullish enough.

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Over the long-term, I would agree. BTC market cap is around $1.2T now. Comparing BTC to the most popular "store of value, hedge against inflation", gold, with a market cap around $10T, BTC would need to rise 9x to achieve parity with gold, which I think is a decent benchmark. How long does it take to get there is the obvious question, and I don't know.

My sense is that we'll see BTC in the $120k range during this cycle (roughly by end of 2025). I've followed BTC in earnest since 2016 and been invested since 2017. Doesn't make me an expert. I'm basing my opinion on BTC historical performance/trends.

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BTC:USD has taken as little as 6 months to 10x historically. It's largest daily gain was around 46% iirc.

That means we could expect 3-6 months coming on par with gold if trends continue.

I just don't see how the acceleration slows down if we get close to that parity.

It's frightening.

SHIB up 93% today.

Cryptomania is back.

Hasn't even begun. Chasing last cycles pumps Is indicator things are starting. People just now warming up the engines.

Dump a roonies day.

Wow this market is a scam. Save us ETF

Yukon Cornelius said:

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The capitulation for BTC adoption will happen very fast. Most major financial and geopolitical shifts actually occur on very very short time frames. Like a day or week.

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How much more adoption is left?

Its market cap surpassed silver.

bmks270 said:

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Yukon Cornelius said:

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The capitulation for BTC adoption will happen very fast. Most major financial and geopolitical shifts actually occur on very very short time frames. Like a day or week.

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How much more adoption is left?

Its market cap surpassed silver.

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It may all go to zero in the end

Between now and then the ease of buying with an ETF, industry experts like Blackrock suggesting everyone go 1-3% bitcoin in their portfolio, the halving event next month and just everything about it screams meme stock on steroids.

I'm gonna keep buying a little. I'm currently up 20%. If it were to double or tripple this year like some think I'll sell enough to be net free.

I may not go even 1% of my portfolio but half a percent or so seems worth the gamble

I'll see your 1% and raise you 40%.

jamey said:

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bmks270 said:

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Yukon Cornelius said:

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The capitulation for BTC adoption will happen very fast. Most major financial and geopolitical shifts actually occur on very very short time frames. Like a day or week.

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How much more adoption is left?

Its market cap surpassed silver.

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It may all go to zero in the end

Between now and then the ease of buying with an ETF, industry experts like Blackrock suggesting everyone go 1-3% bitcoin in their portfolio, the halving event next month and just everything about it screams meme stock on steroids.

I'm gonna keep buying a little. I'm currently up 20%. If it were to double or tripple this year like some think I'll sell enough to be net free.

I may not go even 1% of my portfolio but half a percent or so seems worth the gamble

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Blackrock has actually publicly stated a 24%-83% or some audacious number isn't improper to have allocated to Bitcoin.

Quote:

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In the paper, BlackRock researchers suggested that the optimal allocation to Bitcoin in an investment portfolio consisting of 60% equities and 40% bonds should be a substantial 84.9%

Quote:

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Shocking Bitcoin Strategy from BlackRock Calls for 28% Allocation

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Yeah, that's crazy

jamey said:

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Yeah, that's crazy

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It's the best performing asset of the decade by far and now has regulatory clarity and institutional support. Not that crazy.

TxAG#2011 said:

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Wow this market is a scam. Save us ETF

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Won't the ETF just track the BTC price?

Blackrock bought something ungodly like 14,000 bitcoin today, alone, with daily new supply only offering 900 bitcoi dailyn, and halving to 450 daily in April

****s getting real.

Dollar death spiral
Bitcoin etf's
Election year
BRICS

****.


Meanwhile, on the cryptotrading thread:

pic.twitter.com/o6a0mrfN9n

— Coinicarus.💩coin (@Coinicarus) March 6, 2024

Are you kidding? Most altcoins are roaring.

GRT to .50 very soon

There is not much difference between a btc maxi and a no coiner when it comes to alts. The same thinking the plagues the no coiner from buying btc is the same for the btc maxi that won't buy alts. Literally the same arguments used by both groups. Kind of funny to watch sometimes.

I own some different alts, but I still think until we figure out a way to drastically reduce energy costs, most alts can be performed by non blockchain alternatives cheaper. From a business perspective, they have yet to prove that they are economically advantageous.

But that's not to say I don't think some things would have great application on blockchain. I typically buy based on what need I see them fulfill.

Although I do own token amounts of lottos like Doge and
Shiba.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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There is not much difference between a btc maxi and a no coiner when it comes to alts. The same thinking the plagues the no coiner from buying btc is the same for the btc maxi that won't buy alts. Literally the same arguments used by both groups. Kind of funny to watch sometimes.

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They're both annoying but frankly come off as idiots. I've seen a lot less of that this cycle except here

Definitely Not A Cop said:

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I own some different alts, but I still think until we figure out a way to drastically reduce energy costs, most alts can be performed by non blockchain alternatives cheaper. From a business perspective, they have yet to prove that they are economically advantageous.

But that's not to say I don't think some things would have great application on blockchain. I typically buy based on what need I see them fulfill.

Although I do own token amounts of lottos like Doge and
Shiba.

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You are certainly right but it doesn't matter. Buy now, sell higher.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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There is not much difference between a btc maxi and a no coiner when it comes to alts. The same thinking the plagues the no coiner from buying btc is the same for the btc maxi that won't buy alts. Literally the same arguments used by both groups. Kind of funny to watch sometimes.

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#Bitcoin 101: Satoshi's Innovation

Understanding why and how Satoshi Nakamoto used proof of work to crack the code that unlocked the best money in human history.

Gold is stuck in the ground, #Bitcoin is stuck in the future.

My keynote presentation at @BitcoinAtlantis: pic.twitter.com/eZpicVbANz

— Jack Mallers (@jackmallers) March 7, 2024

There's only one timechain.

I have some ETH that is staked on Coinbase and I'm contemplating selling it to buy BTC.

It looks like I can either unstake it (takes almost 2 weeks), or wrap it with cbETH and sell that immediately. I'm not familiar with wrapping, so what's the better option?

If you can wrap it and sell for same price might as well do it. Eth is in a dangerous position to me. Derivatives ontop of derivatives of staked eth with 2 year plus waiting periods to unlock the actually staked eth. Eth is set up to absolutely crash when the time comes.

It takes 32 eth to stake and run a node. That eth is locked up and there's an unlock que which currently is a little over 2 years. The eth you have "staked" on Coinbase since it requires a minimum of 32 and people with less can't stake Coinbase and others offer to consolidate everyone's eth. Thus reaching the minimum and staking and running nodes. They give you the staking rewards while taking their cut. Good for them they get rewards for staked eth they don't own. Good for you you get to stake eth below the minimum total.

Now you can also "unstake" via Coinbase in two weeks but it's not the same eth that you deposited. They're just giving you other eth. The eth you gave to be staked is locked for 2 years.

So if everyone goes to Coinbase to get their "staked" eth you'll have a Coinbase run on staked eth which they won't be able to cover everyone's staked eth.

Now when you deposit your eth to be staked you essentially have a redeemable ticket saying you have claim to so much staked eth. Well wrapping that essentially means that "ticket to staked" is tradable at the same value of the stakes eth. It works now but if people start dumping the IOUs because they can't get the actual eth unstaked the IOUs will crash. And eth too.

This likely won't happen until next bear cycle but I can't see how it doesn't happen.

People have leverage ontop of leverage of derivatives of derivatives of staked eth. It's absolutely wild.

And so many alts via DEXs are priced per eth pairings so when eth crashes alts will crash too. It'll happen fast.

Sol is running.

AgEng06 said:

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I have some ETH that is staked on Coinbase and I'm contemplating selling it to buy BTC.

It looks like I can either unstake it (takes almost 2 weeks), or wrap it with cbETH and sell that immediately. I'm not familiar with wrapping, so what's the better option?

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I ended up unstaking. I'm planning on selling (not converting) at some point in this bull market. I don't really feel like holding through another bear market.

Thanks for the detailed reply.

Stonegateag85 said:

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Sol is running.

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Is there anyone bullish on ETH?

Yes and no. It'll pump hard and dump hard. The EVM has problems like high gas fees but compared to other chains it performs more reliably. Avalanche and solana have outages and are centralized still. So that's a pro for eth and goes to show how fundamentally difficult it is to build a blockchain.

Definitely Not A Cop said:

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Is there anyone bullish on ETH?

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Yes, Ethereum is getting an ETF. Don't see how you couldn't be bullish

I get bearish when I see ETH gas fees!

So I should swap my ethereum for Bitcoin? My only crypto is a couple thousand dollars worth of ethereum.