Actually like BP and RDS better than XOM and Cvx right now. Anyone have a reason to disagree? More undervalued and higher dividends.

My largest holdings are Visa, Amazon, HD, SYY, AAPL.

Mine are:1) Microsoft Corp. 2)Apple Inc. 3)Amazon.com Inc. 4)Alphabet Inc. 5)Facebook Inc. 6)Berkshire Hathaway Inc. 7)Johnson & Johnson 8)Visa Inc. 9)Procter & Gamble Co. 10)JPMorgan Chase & Co.

XOM, CVX, RDS are a small fraction of my holding for fun, so go throw rocks on another thread.

Apologies for the snarky response. I think most realize XOM isn't the place to park your retirement. There are other threads to discuss the best long term equity market investments.

CaptnCarl said:

---

Apologies for the snarky response. I think most realize XOM isn't the place to park your retirement. There are other threads to discuss the best long term equity market investments.

---

How does your portfolio differ from a basic blue chip mutual fund?

Dividend declaration. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-exxon-mobil-dividend-idUSKBN22B38S

aggiehunter3 said:

---

I went with 1/15/2021 $50 calls because honestly who really cares about the dividend?

---

Just had to humble brag for a moment because I'm still in these.....

aggiehunter3 said:

---

aggiehunter3 said:

---

I went with 1/15/2021 $50 calls because honestly who really cares about the dividend?

---

Just had to humble brag for a moment because I'm still in these.....

---

Congrats. I'm in at $38 so at 9.5% I absolutely care about my dividend. I plan on taking it back into the 60s and the dividend makes it easier to be patient.

RDS just cut its dividend for the first time since WWII. Cut by 65%. Surprising but maybe a smart move to not take on more debt to pay it at the moment

Exxon will cut next payment if market doesn't improve

I think CVX would cut capex to zero to save the dividend. I'll be shocked if CVX cuts their dividend.

Exxon prob not far behind but given where they were on capex cycle they may not have a choice. As a shareholder I'm okay w the dividend cuts as part of long term value

This was a tough read.

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2020-exxonmobil-coronavirus-oil-demand/

When does CVX and XOM declare the dividend? If there is a cut, is the price expected to drop? I'm trying to decide my next entry point with CVX. I'd like to see 60's or 70's again, but that may not happen.

I think everyone can agree that XTO was a bad purchase. However, missing the shale boom should not be a major hit. I do agree that Exxon has mismanaged their investment cycle and will have to cut their dividend and possibly further cut capex.

ExxonMobil in the last 10 year's is a testament of Murphy's law. XTO in hindsight was a bad move, but I think a good gamble at the time. Russia and COVID were just bad luck. They are spending a lot on their downstream and chemicals and you can't blame them. They are modifying the refineries to run the light crude from the Permian and PP demand is growing or was before the virus.

Cross your fingers they don't get crazy in Guyana.

PP demand over a long time will be what drives value, atleast imo. We are not replacing it with an alternative form

I think XOM gets crushed tomorrow. RDS cut their dividend while having much stronger cash flows than XOM. RDS could have afforded to hold off another quarter. I think when analyst see XOM's cash flows and the decision not to cut, they will be punished.

Agree. I think they cut within the next 3 months.

IrishTxAggie said:

---

---

That seems like a small cut all things considered.

fairviewcrew said:

---

I don't know where you are getting your updated 2019 numbers.... but all you need to look at is changes in net debt for 2018 to 2019 to see why there is a major difference between XOM and CVX in this environment.

These are YE19 and 18 numbers pulled for the B/S
CVX
2018. LT debt $34.4 B Cash $10.3 B so net debt $23.1 B
2019. LT debt $27 B Cash $5.75 B so net debt= $21.25 B

XOM
2018. $36.5 b Cash: $3.1b, net debt of $33.4 b
2019. $45.2 B Cash: $3 b, net debt of $ $42.2 b

So CVX total net debt decrease a couple billion while XOMs went up by $9 B....

Why the difference?
CVX has been more aggressive on divestitures
CVX already had a huge capex/major project cycle (that went way over budget), 5+ years ago and the street hammered them, so their capex has been more disciplined posy that... and they have benefitted from the swing of the major projects coming online (xom has not)
Permian advantage- CVX largely owns the minerals on vast majority of their acreage which is a huge relative advantage to peers

So I stand by the statement that XOMs breakeven price is $65-75/bbl... (meaning they cannot cover the dividend within CF so they will continue to have to either add massive amounts of debt to protect capex/divi)....

At $20/bbl XOM doesn't have a choice... debt going up no matter what, so now they need to drastically cut capex (I think $10-15b cut).... now I'm of the mid set they should cut the divi... but they might wait a quarter or two for that

---

fairviewcrew, can you help me understand how you got XOM's numbers on l-t debt? No matter how I calculate the debt, I can't come up with the $45.2B in l-t debt for XOM. I tried adding l-t debt with current obligations due, but I still don't come up with the $45.2B in l-t debt. Can you help me understand what you're adding to come up with that figure? I'm looking at their latest 10K and I'm showing l-t debt in 2019 to be $26.3B.

Thanks.

CSTXAg92 said:

---

IrishTxAggie said:

---

CSTXAg92 said:

---

IrishTxAggie said:

---

MA = Moving Average

I'll pull up my charts tomorrow morning and give a few spots to look at.

---

Ty Irish.

---

Had a chance to look. I would sell the 6/19 $45 Calls at $2.50 and then buy them back on a dip.

---

Thanks Irish. Couldn't get to it this morning, so I didn't get the $2.50. This afternoon I got $1.69 for the 6/19 $45 Call.

---

Irish, Others - Back in early April when XOM was in the $30s, the June 19th covered call @ $45 seemed like a pretty good idea. Fast forward, and 11 days from expiration and XOM is trading at $54. Aside from letting the call expire and have the shares called away at $45, are there any other suggestions?

Recommend everyone reading WoodMac's latest analysis entitled "The Majors' Resilience." It basically confirms what some here already suspected: Chevron is better positioned than all of the majors to endure through the down cycle whereas Exxon is not positioned well at all, and largely due to their oil sands exposure.

At any rate, the analysis is very thorough and it looks at all the majors....BP, Shell, Total, CVX, ENI, Equinor.

RightWingConspirator said:

---

Recommend everyone reading WoodMac's latest analysis entitled "The Majors' Resilience." It basically confirms what some here already suspected: Chevron is better positioned than all of the majors to endure through the down cycle whereas Exxon is not positioned well at all, and largely due to their oil sands exposure.

At any rate, the analysis is very thorough and it looks at all the majors....BP, Shell, Total, CVX, ENI, Equinor.

---

Any chance you can summarize what they say about Shell?

I can't really summarize what it says about Shell primarily because it is an extensive report. It does say Shell has an attractive margin mix, but not as attractive as CVX and ENI. Basically, XOM has the highest exposure to low margin business of the bunch, and the bunch included CVX, ENI, Shell, BP, XOM, Total and Equinor.

It's an extensive analysis.

XOM got the boot from the DJIA... longest standing member.

Huge fall from being the biggest company in the world ~10 years ago

XOM to be replaced by salesforce. CRM.
Pfe to be replaced by AMGN
RTN to be replaced by HON.

XOM is an interesting case study that I probably need to study further. You could blame their decline on being in an industry that has taken a big hit overall, but their valuation relative to their peers in the industry has taken a big hit as well. A decade ago when they were the most valuable publicly traded company, I believe their market cap was roughly 2x that of CVX. Today they are roughly equal (178B vs 163B). Not sure how that has happened and if it indicates XOM is undervalued or Chevron is overvalued (or XOM has really lost that much ground to their "little brother") but that was pretty surprising to me.

FunkyKO said:

---

XOM to be replaced by salesforce. CRM.
Pfe to be replaced by AMGN
RTN to be replaced by HON.

---

With the removal of XOM and RTX, the only remaining Depression Era stock in the DJIA is PG, Proctor & Gamble.

You could hypothesize that the apparent strategy of XOM 10 years ago was to focus on only the biggest targets and plays and that may have been great for high oil prices, but moderate to lower oil prices it really has trouble with the higher upfront investments. Maybe limiting themselves to those targets limited the range of exposure they had to different global assets and asset types? Did it take them longer and more money to shift gears and go full speed into shale oil than other majors? I am throwing out a lot of guesses here. It may be a combination of these and other factors.

Pretty wild XOM was booted.

Crazy right