It's getting real out there folks

lol, that was a funny interaction between those two. Trump calling out that they're almost half a billion over budget and Powell shaking his head no beside him. Trump pulls out the paperwork, and Powell points out that Trumps numbers include a building that was completed a few years ago.

Then Trump slaps Powell on the back when mentioning the need for a rate cut.

Our country is addicted to ZIRP.

Quacked said:

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You're talking about a 37$ profit on an option and cashing out a cd to do so. You can just sell the option (preferably not expiration day) for profit. You don't have to excercise the option for a profit. Hell I've probably only excercised 5 out of 1000 options ever.

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Or you can just buy options ETFs like ULTY and let those guys send you money they earn every week.

They do specific stocks or is it a wide range

Yukon Cornelius said:

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They do specific stocks or is it a wide range

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They trade out 15 or 30 stocks at any given time and write options on their holdings. When a stock stops being lucrative they sell the shares and buy something else.

oldarmy1 said:

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RDDT is breaking a key technical resistance on volume. Worth a $155 weekly lotto and look for surge into close.

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I want to subscribe/follow for your breaking picks. I cannot find you on Telegram. TIA

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Honestly not really looking at SOXL until it falls below $25 or so.

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POWL!!

As I have said before $250 was my target for POWL.

I think I am going to sell half today.

Dang, this ETF is wild! Do you re-invest dividends or just take the distribution?

harge57 said:

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As I have said before $250 was my target for POWL.

I think I am going to sell half today.

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What about Prog's golden cross thingamajig?

I personally pay little to no attention to technicals.


It will probably go higher... and I am still keeping half. Just taking some profit and de-risking a bit.

ReturnOfTheAg said:

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POWL!!

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LULU

Folks what are we thinking about the LULU 300 and 310 call options for Jan 2026? Christmas is going to bust LULU stock out of its funk?

Exited half of my POWL at $250.80. That is a 39% return in less than 6 months.

Out of CLS and PLTR...they'll probably moonshot...but I got into clay pigeon shooting and need a new shotgun and 2k rounds of 12GA...

Paging Prog - what's your plan on POWL?

I take the distribution. That is the reason I invest in this type of ETF.

ReturnOfTheAg said:

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Paging Prog - what's your plan on POWL?

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I'm not Prog nor do I have his expertise. But holding POWL until it hits $300. Then selling half. That may not be until 2026. Could be towards end of this year.

But look at my user name!

I've traded POWL for almost 3 years. Have made good money. But POWL price is not trending like it did in 2022. It is more of a "buy and hold" stick for now, IMO.

more meltup to ATH's for SPY and QQQ...this market just keeps chugging along...shrugs off anything in it's path...the liquidity sloshing around in this economy is just insane and it would take some monstrous negative catalyst to ever revisit some of these gaps down below us...

El Chupacabra said:

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Out of CLS and PLTR...they'll probably moonshot...but I got into clay pigeon shooting and need a new shotgun and 2k rounds of 12GA...

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PLTR just keeps chugging along. Little brother and sister BBAI and SOUN also doing well too.

WWR creeping its way back to 50 cents it seems

Diggity said:

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WWR creeping its way back to 50 cents it seems

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Covered calls made me some money at least

EnronAg said:

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more meltup to ATH's for SPY and QQQ...this market just keeps chugging along...shrugs off anything in it's path...the liquidity sloshing around in this economy is just insane and it would take some monstrous negative catalyst to ever revisit some of these gaps down below us...

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I think we get some turn of the month or shortly thereafter volatility and at least a decent retracement in the indexes through mid to late August. End of July lately has tended to turn slow grinding markets into volatile markets in August. Fear and greed is in extreme greed territory, SPX is stretched up near its upper trendline with minimal retracements (both size and duration) since April.

Been fortunate to hit a bunch of XX% winners over the past 3 months - - who hasn't. I cashed out of most of them and I don't remember ever holding this much cash.

South Platte said:

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Been fortunate to hit a bunch of XX% winners over the past 3 months - - who hasn't. I cashed out of most of them and I don't remember ever holding this much cash.

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Nice. Keep it dry and get ready to re-deploy. While I expect a dip, and I'm unsure of the size, I do feel strongly that blowoff top is coming afterward. Would have to break below the April low to change my mind.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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South Platte said:

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Been fortunate to hit a bunch of XX% winners over the past 3 months - - who hasn't. I cashed out of most of them and I don't remember ever holding this much cash.

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Nice. Keep it dry and get ready to re-deploy. While I expect a dip, and I'm unsure of the size, I do feel strongly that blowoff top is coming afterward. Would have to break below the April low to change my mind.

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just curious what you're thinking SPX level will be at blow off top?? you thinking 7,000? or even more than that? just wondering if we have ever seen 3 straight years of over 20+% gains like we're gearing up for.

EDIT - if we close the year above 7,000 the S&P will have a 3 year return of nearly 84%...that has to be 99 percentile stuff there...

bottom fishing CHTR

89% would be annualized return of 23.6%.

3-Year Period
Annualized Total Return
Key Context
1954-1956
~31.6%
Post-Korean War economic boom, with strong industrial growth and market optimism.
1997-1999
~28.9%
Dot-com bubble peak, driven by technology stock surge and investor enthusiasm.
19331935
~27.2%
Recovery from the Great Depression, with significant market rebound post-1932 lows.
1985-1987
~23.8%
Mid-1980s bull market, fueled by economic expansion and declining interest rates.
2021-2023
~22.5%
Post-COVID recovery, with strong gains in 2021 and 2023 despite 2022's bear market.

EnronAg said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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South Platte said:

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Been fortunate to hit a bunch of XX% winners over the past 3 months - - who hasn't. I cashed out of most of them and I don't remember ever holding this much cash.

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Nice. Keep it dry and get ready to re-deploy. While I expect a dip, and I'm unsure of the size, I do feel strongly that blowoff top is coming afterward. Would have to break below the April low to change my mind.

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just curious what you're thinking SPX level will be at blow off top?? you thinking 7,000? or even more than that? just wondering if we have ever seen 3 straight years of over 20+% gains like we're gearing up for.

EDIT - if we close the year above 7,000 the S&P will have a 3 year return of nearly 84%...that has to be 99 percentile stuff there...

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Throughout history, tops have come in all shapes and sizes. Blowoffs (1929, 2000). Rounded (50's, 60's, 70's), and sudden (2007, 2020, 2021) That said, we've already hit the very lowest target I can come up with. But the pattern doesn't seem reliably complete. Because it's likely a very large ending diagonal off the 2022 low, the standard top would be between 6692 and 6858, needing a sizeable retracement first. A full-blown blow off top could potentially get as high as 7500. A good measuring stick would be to measure the length of April to wherever this run ends, and then apply the same measurement from the next low, wherever it ends up, then looking for an equal sized move off that low. Until we get a retracement though, there's really no way of even guessing other than applying measurements based on previous moves like I have shown. And if we never get a retracement, it's entirely possible this whole thing is the blowoff top.

And for those that don't think a deep selloff that holds at or above the previous low before making a marginal higher high is possible, here's 2007, generally playing out around the same time of the year as now. Not predicting that, but we are in similar times.. interest rates elevated on inflation fears, housing starting to show cracks, pressure on the FED to drop rates, but generally everyone saying the economy is fine, etc.

techno-ag said:

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Quacked said:

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You're talking about a 37$ profit on an option and cashing out a cd to do so. You can just sell the option (preferably not expiration day) for profit. You don't have to excercise the option for a profit. Hell I've probably only excercised 5 out of 1000 options ever.

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Or you can just buy options ETFs like ULTY and let those guys send you money they earn every week.

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Man, ULTY is a dog. Seems like it's been ok for the last couple of months, but on a 52 week view, it's down by almost 50%. If you add your dividends back, you're netting 11% which is way underperforming the S&P. I'm not running a model with DRIP, but it's probably even worse because your dividend shares were also losing value at an obscene rate.

techno-ag said:

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Quacked said:

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You're talking about a 37$ profit on an option and cashing out a cd to do so. You can just sell the option (preferably not expiration day) for profit. You don't have to excercise the option for a profit. Hell I've probably only excercised 5 out of 1000 options ever.

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Or you can just buy options ETFs like ULTY and let those guys send you money they earn every week.

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Thanks guys, but the goal wasn't to make money. $37 just buys me half our take out dinner for Fridays. The goal was to learn a very basic option and get a feel of how things worked.

I have my other ways of making money through ETFs and stocks and that is working well.

The $37 I am going to make today when it expires is from a $8500 cash secured put. But I can spare $25k which I have in a CD so I can expand a bit. It won't cause me any real problem even if I end up buying the stock as I can wait and sell it at a profit too.

infinity ag said:

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techno-ag said:

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Quacked said:

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You're talking about a 37$ profit on an option and cashing out a cd to do so. You can just sell the option (preferably not expiration day) for profit. You don't have to excercise the option for a profit. Hell I've probably only excercised 5 out of 1000 options ever.

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Or you can just buy options ETFs like ULTY and let those guys send you money they earn every week.

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Thanks guys, but the goal wasn't to make money. $37 just buys me half our take out dinner for Fridays. The goal was to learn a very basic option and get a feel of how things worked.

I have my other ways of making money through ETFs and stocks and that is working well.

The $37 I am going to make today when it expires is from a $8500 cash secured put. But I can spare $25k which I have in a CD so I can expand a bit. It won't cause me any real problem even if I end up buying the stock as I can wait and sell it at a profit too.

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You allude to these ways of making money via stocks and ETFs, but it sounds like you're just pouring a **** ton of money into long term holds and letting the market's natural growth over time lead to your gains. Am I off base here, or are you applying some methodology?