Looks like I'll be selling a CSP at the open if POWL keeps dropping.

So the move down of POWL from the Jan 22nd high was clearly impulsive to the downside. Yet it only filled out a reliable 3 waves before chopping and recovering slightly. I was always looking for $220. After that, I expected a bounce to between $270 and $290. From there, it could either resume lower and really start to fall, with the $125 - $150 range being the likely bottom. Or it could hold a higher low and move up into the $400's. The reason I sat out, is because I can easily make a case for both scenarios, and I didn't have enough in place prior to earnings to feel confident to either side. Hitting $220 after hours on the earnings release is problematic, as that's now the full 5 waves down I was looking for. Hopefully it bounces now. And for yalls sake, hopefully it never sells again. But my fear is that the lack of earnings pump shows that the algos already priced in this kind of growth, so nothing new has been unveiled yet. That's where the conference call becomes important.

For those of us certified drug addicts, here is the Cleanspark earnings release.

https://investors.cleanspark.com/news/news-details/2025/CleanSpark-Reports-Fiscal-Year-First-Quarter-2025-Results/default.aspx

My curiosity with Powell is why is the backlog not growing? Are they getting passed over for lots of orders due to long lead times?

And when their new facility comes online this year and that backlog starts to disappear, will they have a backlog at all down the road?

Could the shorts be holding this down?

Diggity said:

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Can you industrial manufacturing experts help me out here on the Powell earnings?

In the earnings results, they mention that revenue & gross profit are up YoY but down from the previous quarter, due to "seasonality".

My question is: why would seasonality be an issue for a company that's claiming to have nearly 5 quarters of backlog? Are they not able to charge as much for their widgets in Q1 vs Q4?

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Per Co-pilot here are the reasons they have put out in the past. I can see some of this but does seem a bit extreme. The do have operations in Illinois, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Powell Industries typically experiences seasonality in its first financial quarter, which ends on December 31, due to several factors:
[ol]

Holiday Season Slowdown: Many businesses, including Powell's clients, slow down operations during the holiday season, leading to fewer orders and project delays.

Budget Cycles: Clients often finalize their budgets at the end of the calendar year, resulting in delayed spending and project approvals until the new year begins.

Weather Conditions: Adverse weather conditions in certain regions can impact project timelines and execution, affecting revenue recognition.

[/ol]

flashplayer said:

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My curiosity with Powell is why is the backlog not growing? And when their new facility comes online this year and that backlog starts to disappear, will they have a backlog at all down the road?

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For a lot of customers in this space it is find the person with capacity and hire them. With electrical supplier lead times, skilled man-power limited and I guess for POWL a lack of production space this may be holding back much growth in additional backlog over just replacing what they burned during the quarter.

EliteZags said:

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4 figure share count here with 30% in Roth/HSA never sold one, may consider a DCA down to net free when it goes >100 which would be ~10-15% of shares, but end goal is 7 figure position value towards end of decade

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wasn't expecting to be in this position with PLTR just 2 months later, so far have only convinced myself to sell ~1% and my diamond hands are freezing up
literally talked myself out of 110 covered calls yesterday yikes

Diggity said:

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Can you industrial manufacturing experts help me out here on the Powell earnings?

In the earnings results, they mention that revenue & gross profit are up YoY but down from the previous quarter, due to "seasonality".

My question is: why would seasonality be an issue for a company that's claiming to have nearly 5 quarters of backlog? Are they not able to charge as much for their widgets in Q1 vs Q4?

---

seasonality was projects on hold 2nd part of 2024 waiting on election results and people holding money is my guess.

But if the last quarter is traditionally slow (few orders) and backlog remained constant, that would have to mean demand at least slightly went up, maybe? Or production was less efficient.

Or maybe I am thinking through that incorrectly and the seasonal slowdown is on production, which actually would mean less demand

AgCPA95 said:

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Diggity said:

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Can you industrial manufacturing experts help me out here on the Powell earnings?

In the earnings results, they mention that revenue & gross profit are up YoY but down from the previous quarter, due to "seasonality".

My question is: why would seasonality be an issue for a company that's claiming to have nearly 5 quarters of backlog? Are they not able to charge as much for their widgets in Q1 vs Q4?

---

Per Co-pilot here are the reasons they have put out in the past. I can see some of this but does seem a bit extreme. The do have operations in Illinois, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Powell Industries typically experiences seasonality in its first financial quarter, which ends on December 31, due to several factors:
[ol]

Holiday Season Slowdown: Many businesses, including Powell's clients, slow down operations during the holiday season, leading to fewer orders and project delays.

Budget Cycles: Clients often finalize their budgets at the end of the calendar year, resulting in delayed spending and project approvals until the new year begins.

Weather Conditions: Adverse weather conditions in certain regions can impact project timelines and execution, affecting revenue recognition.

[/ol]

---

all true, but budgets should be factored already. you have 3 weeks of down production for 4th quarter but construction usually has their best quarters EoY in my experience. Lot of shut downs and OT

AgShaun00 said:

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Diggity said:

---

Can you industrial manufacturing experts help me out here on the Powell earnings?

In the earnings results, they mention that revenue & gross profit are up YoY but down from the previous quarter, due to "seasonality".

My question is: why would seasonality be an issue for a company that's claiming to have nearly 5 quarters of backlog? Are they not able to charge as much for their widgets in Q1 vs Q4?

---

seasonality was projects on hold 2nd part of 2024 waiting on election results and people holding money is my guess.

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I don't think they would refer to it as "typical seasonality" in that case

Holy green candles, Batman!

And all the way back down.

Weird AH action for NVDA / SOXL.

El Chupacabra said:

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El Chupacabra said:

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AMZN

I'm going to guess they are going to beat...then shoot up. Then project a slowdown going forward, then tank.

I'm putting in a sell order at $250 just to see if it hits AH. As usual, I plan on being completely wrong.

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Initial reaction completely opposite of my prediction...shocking!

Down $15

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My $225 buy order hit, my $250 sell order is still....well it hasn't hit.

CheladaAg said:

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If POWL can't handle the additional backlog of customers, the question becomes...who are they going to? POWL's competitors? Maybe we should find out who they are so that we can ride their stock as they report customer growth.

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eaton. They struggle with backlog too.

MPWR exceeded estimates

GS: Short interest in $TLT is near century-highs pic.twitter.com/5kdSUUgKOr

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) February 6, 2025

Diggity said:

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GS: Short interest in $TLT is near century-highs pic.twitter.com/5kdSUUgKOr

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) February 6, 2025

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Imagine TLT shorts getting crushed at the same time as JPY shorts. It would be volmageddon.

zgolfz85 said:

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Charlie Conway said:

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agwrestler said:

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Finally decided to actively participate in my 401k. After reading through this thread and a couple others in F57,I moved half of my company stock from previous employer PH to NVDA last week a 117ish and up to 127.89 today.

Much appreciated fellas.

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you used to work at the hub!?

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what VPN stock should we be buying now that you can't get into the hub in all these states? I feel like we're not capitalizing on hedonism enough in here. sex sells boys.

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Parker Hannifin

$BILL

Got smoked 30% after beating and mentioning a small slowdown. Know nothing about the company, but might be one to do further research on.

Anyone heard if the jobs report is supposed to be good or bad? Haven't had a chance to watch or listen to anything.

already have a nice chunk of POWL shares at 2x(ish) gains...have made decent money on covered calls...and have done well selling deep OTM puts and collected good premiums...but all that said, when do we back up the truck for more shares...(I'm not a buy calls guy)

CLSK - puts dont invalidate technically, but above $11.65 probability that a drop to news lows is coming lessens. Technically the setup is valid under $13.50 range. But time would get tight. Make your own call. Like I always say, my risk is judged on the front end. I ride or die.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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CLSK - puts dont invalidate technically, but above $11.65 probability that a drop to news lows is coming lessens. Technically the setup is valid under $13.50 range. But time would get tight. Make your own call. Like I always say, my risk is judged on the front end. I ride or die.

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I apologize I am confused on this. Saying short term puts could be a good play off the bounce?

AgShaun00 said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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CLSK - puts dont invalidate technically, but above $11.65 probability that a drop to news lows is coming lessens. Technically the setup is valid under $13.50 range. But time would get tight. Make your own call. Like I always say, my risk is judged on the front end. I ride or die.

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I apologize I am confused on this. Saying short term puts could be a good play off the bounce?

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I bought some yesterday and shared with the board. Was updating for any followers.

I sold all but 2 of my CLSK puts yesterday for tiny gains, still got 2 I'm riding....we'll see.....I got cold feet

Looking like a good sell at the moment...